OUCH! That rally was much too short, a huge opportunity missed. Let us try to understand what is what. Times of low price are sometimes the only times when criticism is perceived at all. No, this is not FUD - yes it's
doubt but not about the software only about the new price scheme - but it's not
fear nor
uncertainty. I am heavily invested, and my biggest interest is that the price goes up again - because I am in the minus right now. Like most of us I guess?
But first, I introduce myself. I have been around for more than 2 months, I have always been constructive - made very good suggestions (
#117) already early in August, which were received and welcomed (
#123). Then I put a lot of effort into a second analysis & feature request list (
#286), which were celebrated (
#289) and thanked for (
#294,
#343).
I have much much less money than most people here, and suddenly the price for the new version of the Quatloo Trader was shooting up by a factor of 3 - I became really skeptical. I asked specific questions about success and failure (
#553 and
#592), which got quite a few 'I lost money with it' answers, actually.
I also lost interest in contributing here - mainly because I had asked for rewards, donations, tips - several times. For all those hours contributed here, I did receive exactly ZERO quatloo to my address:
reward me if you like this: QanRXFSJNp8a3H94ZDubiGLQat9YGRMsRE
Obviously, you don't. (Otherwise you (forum member) would have shared some of your trading gains, or you (Markus) some of your premine.). Instead you prefered to loose me and my interest in this. Not even ONE single QTL was sent to me. Pffff.... So I was thinking: Why bother about this software any longer? I have helped too much already!
Then this third rally happened.
And especially the 10000 QTL, 15000 QTL, and 20000 QTL minimums looked really promising - because naively one would assume that creates a huge demand.
Here was a chance to make back the money that I lost, and gain something for myself. Over time, and clever buying, I had lowered my high average buy price. But the last panic buy then destroyed that again. My average buy price is a bit below 11000 Satoshi now.
And I am sure there are many people with a much higher average buy price - as the three past peaks were at 28999 Satoshi, 31999 Satoshi, and now (only!) 21000 Satoshi.
Let's still assume only 10000 Satoshi/QTL average buy price - then all the calculations are easier for you to translate to your own situation. And 403 USD/BTC.
That means, this is what is asked from us by Markus:
|
| __QTL__ | __BTC__ | __USD__ |
| 1000 | 0.10 | 40 |
| 3000 | 0.30 | 121 |
| 10000 | 1.00 | 403 |
| 15000 | 1.50 | 605 |
| 20000 | 2.00 | 806 |
800 Dollars ? ? ? ? Definitely
much too much for me.
By the way, that we are able to sell QTL back will only help in case it is not completely crashed until then. I guess I must risk to loose at least 400 dollars, if I use this.
I cannot. So bye bye, I am excluded. But ignore me - I am just a poor person.
Still: Seemingly the new prices were too much not only for me - but also for too many other potential buyers!
They bought, but not enough.
The rally was too fast and too short, and it collapsed almost completely.
The too big hopes might have actually created that unhealthy supersteep slope?
Anyways: You could not create the same demand again as last time.
Here is an economics fallacy:
If I keep the same price, I will create the same turnover.
If I double the price, I will create twice as much turnover.
If I triple the price, I will create three time as much turnover.
If I quadruple the price, I will create four time as much turnover.
If I ask for a fivefold price, I will create five time as much turnover.
If I ask for a sixfold price, I will create six time as much turnover.
The last line was ~ the concept to get from 3000 QTL to soon 20000 QTL.
All this is played out in a complex system.
The the above is very often wrong. Why?
Because he turnover is
not independent from the price.
The higher a price, the more people are
not willing anymore to buy the thing.
But hey, this prematurely aborted rally can be looked at simply ... as a good
measurement of market sentiments:
YES: you could create a short rally = so higher than 3000 QTL was perceived to be good.
BUT: You have now found out that the 3000 QTL --> 20000 QTL jump has created
a lower peak than the 1000 QTL --> 3000 QTL jump.
My conjecture:
Somewhere between 3000 and 20000 QTL is the optimal point at which you will maximize the demand, and thus support, and buying frenzy.But! Perhaps! I am! Wrong!
my ZERO qtl ;-)
reward me if you like this: QanRXFSJNp8a3H94ZDubiGLQat9YGRMsRE
