[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

Curious, does Obama passing this new crazy Gestapo law have any affect on Monero?  
These types of laws are just going to increase use cases for Monero, etc. and increase BTC mixing sites.

(Taken from reddit)
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/31443f/donating_to_snowden_is_now_illegal_and_the_us/
Donating to Snowden is now illegal and the U.S. Government can take all your stuff. - Thanks Obama.

"Sec. 2. I hereby determine that the making of donations of the type of articles specified in section 203(b)(2) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702(b)(2)) by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to section 1 of this order would seriously impair my ability to deal with the national emergency declared in this order, and I hereby prohibit such donations as provided by section 1 of this order.

Sec. 3. The prohibitions in section 1 of this order include but are not limited to:

(a) the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order; and

(b) the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person."

Sec. 7. For those persons whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, I find that because of the ability to transfer funds or other assets instantaneously, prior notice to such persons of measures to be taken pursuant to this order would render those measures ineffectual. I therefore determine that for these measures to be effective in addressing the national emergency declared in this order, there need be no prior notice of a listing or determination made pursuant to section 1 of this order." ... aka, they can take all your stuff without due process instantly if you have "constitutional rights" in the US (wow).

The rabbit hole is deep people. This is almost as bad as the patriot act... a national emergency LOL what a joke. I pray that non of you donated to Snowden using Coinbase or any other bitcoin platform that keeps your identity on file

source - https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/01/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-engaging-significant-m

Look at that ridiculous use of "I" and "my". He really does think hes a king doesn't he.

Also be careful of your language. When you say things like "obama is passing a law" you are presupposing that he has constitutional authority to do this. In some sense you are ceding him a sort of legitimacy. These sorts of "executive orders" are completely illegal. It's all just fiat power exercised by a very powerful rogue criminal syndicate.

[Hueristic]

THAT has to be a Aprils fool JOKE!

(C) causing a significant disruption to the availability of a computer or network of computers; or

REALLY?!?!?!?

[LordSonjai]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

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[Hueristic]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

troll asci art clipped

Your point?

[vokain]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

troll asci art clipped

Your point?

price now is the first time that the price is higher than the price at the time the post recommended a buy? Maybe think for yourselves?

[dEBRUYNE]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

troll asci art clipped

Your point?

price now is the first time that the price is higher than the price at the time the post recommended a buy? Maybe think for yourselves?

Webwallet was released on 25 november 2014 IIRC, price soared from 0.00136 to 0.00172 but tanked shortly after that. So I think that argument could be debunked, since we overtook that atleast one more time after that.

[vokain]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

troll asci art clipped

Your point?

price now is the first time that the price is higher than the price at the time the post recommended a buy? Maybe think for yourselves?

Webwallet was released on 25 november 2014 IIRC, price soared from 0.00136 to 0.00172 but tanked shortly after that. So I think that argument could be debunked, since we overtook that atleast one more time after that.

Considering a saying commonly known amongst traders, "Buy on rumor, sell on news," one should take the recommendation, "Now is the time to buy," at face value as a recommendation to start buying on October 12.

That LordSonjai would take too significant the recommendation is a reflection upon those who follow. It's not like it's a bad call, in the grand scheme of things.

[vokain]

1.) one service taking monero directly (a psychiatrist in NY afaik) and ristos castle (?)
2.) xmr.to which converts xmr into btc
3.) some minor but fine services

4) our first run-away scam.

That has to be worth something on the "making it" scale.

5) coffee and coffee accessories!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=868164.msg9618340#msg9618340

[iCEBREAKER]

In scenario thinking, anything that could happen, is worth assigning a probability.

Monero can replace BTC.

Litecoin can never replace BTC.

Monero doesn't need to "replace BTC" any more than pepper needs to replace salt.

The latter features radical transparency, the former radical opacity.  There is no competition, except for the amusing sideshow pissing contest of market cap.

Litecoin is like the little spare doughnut tire you find hidden under the trunk.

When BTC has a blowout, we just pull over and bolt it on.  It will do the job until the mechanic opens.  Just take it easy on the corners.

The 'LTC is useless' meme is wrong.  A spare tire is similarly useless, until it isn't.  Same logic applies to fire extinguishers and earthquake kits.

Despite all best efforts, BTC will fork again.  Prepare accordingly.

[TrueCryptonaire]

In scenario thinking, anything that could happen, is worth assigning a probability.

Monero can replace BTC.

Litecoin can never replace BTC.

Monero doesn't need to "replace BTC" any more than pepper needs to replace salt.

The latter features radical transparency, the former radical opacity.  There is no competition, except for the amusing sideshow pissing contest of market cap.

Litecoin is like the little spare doughnut tire you find hidden under the trunk.

When BTC has a blowout, we just pull over and bolt it on.  It will do the job until the mechanic opens.  Just take it easy on the corners.

The 'LTC is useless' meme is wrong.  A spare tire is similarly useless, until it isn't.  Same logic applies to fire extinguishers and earthquake kits.

Despite all best efforts, BTC will fork again.  Prepare accordingly.

Bitcoin might become an important altcoin of Monero in the future.
BTC will not cease to exist but the price may never rise to ATH again. There simply is a lack of stupid money these days.
As Monero gets its own exchange and is sold to big buyers (probably a lot via OTC), the price cannot simply keep this low.

[aminorex]

The way to think of it conceptually is with the price elasticity on buy(sell) pressure.

I agree.

End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M

I disagree.

At present XMR is functionally a subsystem of BTC.  To buy XMR, you first buy BTC, representing a flow of capital into BTC.  When you buy XMR, it is an exchange of XMR and BTC, with no impact on the capitalization of BTC in fiat, and no impact on the flow of capital into/out-of BTC at the fiat boundary.  Increasing the market cap of XMR is more likely to increase the market cap of BTC than it is to decrease it.

The picture only changes when XMR can approach a dis-intermediated equilibrium with fiat.  Then triangular arbitrage will enable equilibration at the XMR/BTC interface as well.  Massive profits and losses would occur at that time.

Capital flight from BTC: ... 190M.

A reasonable conclusion on your premises.  I disagree with how you expressed the mechanics.  Capital flight from BTC to XMR can only be measured in BTC or XMR, not in fiat, except as an integral of instantaneous valuations.

Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time).

Your parenthetical comment strikes me as an independent speculative assumption, or the consequence of an unstated premise underlying multiple explicit premises, rather than a consequence of the core scenario.

The elasticity factor you describe is a fairly good way to measure the relative proportions of reserve demand versus economic use, when in an equilibrium state.  It is likely to change substantially during the course of an equilibration.  It would approach 1:1 at parity (by a symmetry argument), and vary around a simple attractor curve which is monotonic in the market cap ratio.  (Parity != equilibrium, as the two are independent concepts.)

If the value growth in XMR facilitates the entry of new agents into the overall crypto economy, the market caps of both BTC and XMR could rise simultaneously, even without a net inflow from fiat, for the same reasons of elasticity ratio, this time relative to fiat.





,

[equipoise]

This has nothing to do with economics or price speculation, but is anyone here a biologist, biochemist, geneticist, etc? Just wondering if it's feasible at all to have the blockchain emulate biological characteristics(Like that of a small animal). I just thought about how a private blockchain such as Monero's would be perfect for such a thing(As the brain, body is "private" until the owner/person wishes otherwise(No one can read your thoughts for example) and not open like a transparent blockchain).

I have a master's degree in Bio- and Medical Informatics. I can't think of any reasonable blockchain uses as a data structure to hold biological data. There are other bioinformatics people in the Monero community (and probably biologist, biochemist, geneticist), but I don't think they'll find such uses too. There is an off-topic monero thread somewhere and a whole off-topic section in the Monero forum.

Edit: A hash or a signiture of a biological data probably, but that applies to any other data.

[rpietila]

Now is the time to buy, considering that rumor says the webwallet is out in 2 weeks..

Yeah, when the usefulness of this call is evaluated, scale it like this:

- put a monthly average chart on
- think that you need 200,000 XMR
- voilá after the 3-month accumulation window starting from my call, you have it. Cheaply.

* *

Try (for once) think in context. I am not here issuing orders to daytraders of 50 XMR; that's something I can hardly spare my time to think how to do profitably.

[opennux]

the government should be freaking out about the potential implications of this tech. but they aren't. at all. not even a wiff of it. firmly in the ignore stage.

Implications? Freaking out?

It makes tax laws almost unenforceable. Not entirely because if you work at mcdonalds and buy yourself a boeing 747 for personal use one day they might just have some questions. But in a lot of cases it does.

They could still jail you. Fine you. Disrupt every aspect of your life that's not financial.

Alternatively, if StateCoin comes to pass, they'll just centralize the hardware / network and then there will be no way to AVOID tax laws if you use statecoin (and you'll have to if it becomes == USD), because the taxes are the transaction / mining fees. Unfortunately, this is the equivalent of a sales tax, which are not progressive.

We already have USD-Tethers there's no point to StateCoin. And there is a way to avoid tax laws if you don't cash out USD-Tethers or any coin for fiat, making you liable to said tax laws. Don't play in their sandbox if at all possible and instead play on this here nice beach we have

No, by "statecoin" I mean a private crytpocurrency network run by the state, on specialized hardware.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/federal-reserve-bitcoin-strategy/

i.e., its just like bitcoin in every respect except you can't mine it. no one can mine it except the federal reserve. You can have a wallet software to access your accounts on the ledger. Its still a cryptocurrency. The same hashing and ledger storage will be done, but just centralized. Every existing federal reserve location will be a node / mining farm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branches

THIS, imo, is inevitable.

Yes, and no. There is inherent risk for states running their own specialised coin and network. Imagine a smaller state with less funds. Another rogue state could attack the coin. Heck, even a multinational company could attack such a coin.

On a larger scale, such as any of the G7 nations, this could still apply. Rogue states attacking other rogue states. And US is inherently a rogue state, according to many thought leaders.

[rpietila]

End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M

I disagree.

This was defined as the end result of the simulation, so hardly worth a disagreement  

At present XMR is functionally a subsystem of BTC.  To buy XMR, you first buy BTC, representing a flow of capital into BTC.  When you buy XMR, it is an exchange of XMR and BTC, with no impact on the capitalization of BTC in fiat, and no impact on the flow of capital into/out-of BTC at the fiat boundary.  Increasing the market cap of XMR is more likely to increase the market cap of BTC than it is to decrease it.

The picture only changes when XMR can approach a dis-intermediated equilibrium with fiat.  Then triangular arbitrage will enable equilibration at the XMR/BTC interface as well.  Massive profits and losses would occur at that time.

All agreeable, but this whole simulation is the answer to TrueCryptonaire fallacious claim that 10-20k BTC to be transferred to XMR will likely put and keep them in parity, while 1M is closer to the truth as shown. The simulation was not intended to expound the triangular dynamics nor the forward escape in a larger context (the post following had).

Capital flight from BTC: ... 190M.

A reasonable conclusion on your premises.  I disagree with how you expressed the mechanics.  Capital flight from BTC to XMR can only be measured in BTC or XMR, not in fiat, except as an integral of instantaneous valuations.

It does not matter squat in which currency it is expressed - here BTC and USD are both shown, but XMR not because its value changes too much during the simulation.

Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time).

Your parenthetical comment strikes me as an independent speculative assumption, or the consequence of an unstated premise underlying multiple explicit premises, rather than a consequence of the core scenario.

It directly follows from the premises. It is similar in nature to "the diagonals of a square divide each other in half". It just cannot by otherwise.

The elasticity factor - -  is likely to change substantially during the course of an equilibration.

The elasticity factor in peaks such as the blowoff top in April 2013 was ~60 IIRC.

When measured from the period of no price change, it is == 0 always by definition as well.

=> The method has its limitations.

If the value growth in XMR facilitates the entry of new agents into the overall crypto economy, the market caps of both BTC and XMR could rise simultaneously, even without a net inflow from fiat, for the same reasons of elasticity ratio, this time relative to fiat.

For sure if something is perceived to have become more valuable, its valuation in the market can change without new money entering in.

[TrueCryptonaire]

End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M

I disagree.

This was defined as the end result of the simulation, so hardly worth a disagreement  

At present XMR is functionally a subsystem of BTC.  To buy XMR, you first buy BTC, representing a flow of capital into BTC.  When you buy XMR, it is an exchange of XMR and BTC, with no impact on the capitalization of BTC in fiat, and no impact on the flow of capital into/out-of BTC at the fiat boundary.  Increasing the market cap of XMR is more likely to increase the market cap of BTC than it is to decrease it.

The picture only changes when XMR can approach a dis-intermediated equilibrium with fiat.  Then triangular arbitrage will enable equilibration at the XMR/BTC interface as well.  Massive profits and losses would occur at that time.

All agreeable, but this whole simulation is the answer to TrueCryptonaire fallacious claim that 10-20k BTC to be transferred to XMR will likely put and keep them in parity, while 1M is closer to the truth as shown. The simulation was not intended to expound the triangular dynamics nor the forward escape in a larger context (the post following had).

Capital flight from BTC: ... 190M.

A reasonable conclusion on your premises.  I disagree with how you expressed the mechanics.  Capital flight from BTC to XMR can only be measured in BTC or XMR, not in fiat, except as an integral of instantaneous valuations.

It does not matter squat in which currency it is expressed - here BTC and USD are both shown, but XMR not because its value changes too much during the simulation.

Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time).

Your parenthetical comment strikes me as an independent speculative assumption, or the consequence of an unstated premise underlying multiple explicit premises, rather than a consequence of the core scenario.

It directly follows from the premises. It is similar in nature to "the diagonals of a square divide each other in half". It just cannot by otherwise.

The elasticity factor - -  is likely to change substantially during the course of an equilibration.

The elasticity factor in peaks such as the blowoff top in April 2013 was ~60 IIRC.

When measured from the period of no price change, it is == 0 always by definition as well.

=> The method has its limitations.

Yes, right now holding parity with btc requires more than 10,000-20,000 btc.
For this price the mining activity still is way too high.
It probably needs 10,000-20,000 btc daily minimum to hold the parity.
Right now it is not that realistic, but once we get big guys buying (billionaires), it might hold there. If this happens, it actually can trigger a new btc rally, too since 10,000-20,000 btc need to be bought from the market daily to keep up the price.

I think many have sold a large stash of their coins before we reach the parity - only the strongest coins are there for sale from the community. Thus, I am not expecting any bigger dumping taking place there anymore. The dumping take place probably on  the way to 0.1-> since new millionaires need to be created. When that has been done, it is ready to rise for the second class of millionaires and that is taking place when the price rises 100 times from that.
Though, it is possible that btc will be denominated in Moneros in the future.  

BTW, I see Doge's marketcap on the horizon.

[dEBRUYNE]

This thread is amazingly quiet having today's action in mind. That being said, it's mostly 1 guy that is selling off since he is pissed at fluffypony.

[kazuki49]

This thread is amazingly quiet having today's action in mind. That being said, it's mostly 1 guy that is selling off since he is pissed at fluffypony.

any background info on this?

[opennux]

This thread is amazingly quiet having today's action in mind. That being said, it's mostly 1 guy that is selling off since he is pissed at fluffypony.

Meh.. no need for drama-queens anyway.

[dEBRUYNE]

This thread is amazingly quiet having today's action in mind. That being said, it's mostly 1 guy that is selling off since he is pissed at fluffypony.

any background info on this?

Feel free to PM me on IRC I'll show you the logs. I am in #monero @ freenode (if not familiar with IRC, just use this -> https://webchat.freenode.net/ (set your nick and set the channel to #monero) under the same nick. I am going to bed soon though, so if I am not there, try again tomorrow.

PS: This apply to others as well, just shoot me a PM on IRC!