[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kazuki49]

there is such a thing as network effect. and bitcoin's own dwarfs monero's by a couple order of magnitudes.

protocols don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough and all signs point to Bitcoin being good enough.

Monero is unique from most other alts in that it does present a use case that the market demands and that can not (yet?) be filled by Bitcoin but I believe it is too little too late for Monero to supplant Bitcoin on technological merits alone

"there is such a thing as network effect." and "it is too little too late for Monero", Maybe it is true for the latter, but we just need more people thinking otherwise in the former, and there are more people outside Bitcoin than in Bitcoin for it.

these are financial protocols, it needs to be perfect or near.

[1714707444]

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[Johnny Mnemonic]

I realize this is swearing in the church, I like monero very much, but let's not get delusional. It's future success is not set in stone. I think at best monero can be a high liquid altcoin like LTC has been, and work as a complimentary currency to bitcoin. It may be, that bitcoin takes the spot as mainly storage of value, like gold is today. And that monero takes the spot as transactional currency. But it will never be the #1 crypto. That ship has sailed.

That ship hasn't even been built. All cryptos are pretty useless at this point, and Bitcoin being the #1 useless crypto-tech in an ocean of useless crypto-tech doesn't really say much. If my brother wanted a bitcoin (which he doesn't, because it's fucking useless), he'd have to spend an hour on Coinbase verifying his identity and his phone number and his bank account information etc., before then having to wait 4 more days to actually receive his bitcoin. Such disruption.

Pretty much any alt can leapfrog Bitcoin overnight the moment it offers a useful service that makes the coin accessible to common people.

Until then, lets not delude ourselves into thinking we've done anything even remotely valuable for the rest of the world.

[macsga]

No need to fight over this. XMR is a weapon of choice when it comes to Crypto. It has features that BTC lacks of, it's better, it has a better devteam and a rather strong user base. I expect similarities with BTC. TBH, I also expect it to be A LOT bigger once the most wanted missives are implemented. Yes, it's a baby; but still, a pretty strong and promising one!

I KNOW I've said too many times TO DA MOON, and CCMF already, but this is the most probable way XMR is going.  

@Johnny Mnemonic: Valid points on the "get one crypto now". But BTC/Crypto useless? 

[cAPSLOCK]

Again this need for a binary situation where either Bitcoin or Monero comes out on top is IMHO misguided.

I think it is unlikely that Monero supplants bitcoin.  However it's not really the point.  Monero offers a set of features that Bitcoin does not.  The two can easily coexist.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

@Johnny Mnemonic: Valid points on the "get one crypto now". But BTC/Crypto useless?  

Yep, pretty useless. Of course I have grand visions of the future just like the rest of us, but cryptocurrency hasn't reached the point where it offers anything of value to the average joe. But, as I stated in my last comment, that could change at any moment.

Watching the price and beating out other coins is fun for sure But we'll never get closer to real-world adoption until we start thinking outside of our circle. Even the great Bitcoin isn't really doing that.

Summary to keep this on topic: A useful application to improve outside accessibility will move the price much more than depending on investors within the cryptosphere. I do believe there are some things on the horizon that fit that description.

[tifozi]

With the right deliverables, complete sell side getting bought out is not out of the question with little to no replenishment once they happen.  I happen to think that they will execute without warnings or "gradual pumps" by some pump teams. It will be done by Bitcoiners, so they are not a competition. It is just a value shift for them.

[brg444]

@Johnny Mnemonic: Valid points on the "get one crypto now". But BTC/Crypto useless?  

Yep, pretty useless. Of course I have grand visions of the future just like the rest of us, but cryptocurrency hasn't reached the point where it offers anything of value to the average joe. But, as I stated in my last comment, that could change at any moment.

Watching the price and beating out other coins is fun for sure But we'll never get closer to real-world adoption until we start thinking outside of our circle. Even the great Bitcoin isn't really doing that.

I'd consider myself a regular joe and Bitcoin has been considerably useful for international remittances and general currency exchange.

I use it almost weekly and it provides a service that fiat/bank never could.

Maybe your circle is too narrow and you need to expand it but in my world Bitcoin is very much useful.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.

On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.

if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to

It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR.
However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too.
Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value.

Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD.
Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin.

And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither.

 

this is nonsense. if you believe there will always be a better crypto then there is no use investing in them other than speculation and day trading.

there is such a thing as network effect. and bitcoin's own dwarfs monero's by a couple order of magnitudes.

protocols don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough and all signs point to Bitcoin being good enough.

Monero is unique from most other alts in that it does present a use case that the market demands and that can not (yet?) be filled by Bitcoin but I believe it is too little too late for Monero to supplant Bitcoin on technological merits alone

Yes, tech tends to go forward.
When I was kid internet was introduced, and it was with modems that made the noise. And it was expensive, charge was 0.10 usd per minute.  
Now we are having pretty fast internet connections as a human right almost.
When new crypto is introduced, we simply buy us into it. Obviously the one who gets in first will get best price. The last pays the equilibrium price. Same as Monero.

Bitcoin has indeed some network effect but I don't think it is unreachable. I have been talking almost all my friends about bitcoin and they are immediately associating it to Gox and bubble.
Gox can be easily explain but how do you convince them bitcoin is not in the bubble if it is in a bubble and as a result of that we see this long lasting bear market.
Monero has second mover advantage over bitcoin.
The Monero community consists mostly of long term bitcoiners and they have been growing up from wild teen agers to more mature people and are not throwing money like crazy into the coin. Therefore we might see more steady growth for Monero than we saw in with bitcoin. Monero may never go to the bubble but it might grow also nicely and very very long.

If it does this, it is 99.9999% sure Monero will gain mainstream acceptance. It will get many magnitudes larger network effect than bitcoin if the price just keeps pumping up, but not in immature way.

This is the very reason I hate when I am "forced" to speak bullish since it might create greed among the kids. The patience is the key here to success.
Monero should not limit itself to be .5-1 % niche coin (which it is currently).

The network effect is easy to create for Monero. It just needs a long lasting bull market.

[brg444]

Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.

On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.

if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to

It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR.
However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too.
Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value.

Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD.
Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin.

And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither.

 

this is nonsense. if you believe there will always be a better crypto then there is no use investing in them other than speculation and day trading.

there is such a thing as network effect. and bitcoin's own dwarfs monero's by a couple order of magnitudes.

protocols don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough and all signs point to Bitcoin being good enough.

Monero is unique from most other alts in that it does present a use case that the market demands and that can not (yet?) be filled by Bitcoin but I believe it is too little too late for Monero to supplant Bitcoin on technological merits alone

Yes, tech tends to go forward.
When I was kid internet was introduced, and it was with modems that made the noise. And it was expensive, charge was 0.10 usd per minute.  
Now we are having pretty fast internet connections as a human right almost.
When new crypto is introduced, we simply buy us into it. Obviously the one who gets in first will get best price. The last pays the equilibrium price. Same as Monero.

Yet the internet is still running on top of TCP/IP as it was when you were a kid.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Bitcoin will die - no doubt.
However, it is a Goliath and it takes just a bit time. That being said, it most likely will not happen tomorrow and the coin will not die technologically, but the community will become simply poor and no new members are coming (why they should).
If I think very carefully, bitcoin has nothing to offer. It is very inconvenient. People get paid in dollars, why on earth they should convert those dollars to bitcoins?
The only real world use for bitcoin I could imagine is sending money from developed countries to undeveloped countries, perhaps bitcoin might save a few bucks compared to Westrn Union rates.

On the other hand, Monero offers a safe-haven for rich people since it is anonymous. Nobody can figure out your balance except Risto who knows that the largest Monero stack was worth only of 100 000 usd in the days of bottom prices.

if you think bitcoin will die, than i think monero will die to

It might do this. Chances are Monero will die and it is good to remember when you are investing into XMR.
However, Monero has better odds to succeed since you can add all the needed features of bitcoin into XMR. If you want to use Monero publically, it is possible, too.
Bitcoin's last chance to get some additional air is the Wall street pump. Bitcoin needs tons of stupid money flooding into it in order to gain some value.

Therefore, I think we should not focus too much on how many bitcoins Monero costs, but how many USD.
Monero needs to stand alone and separate itself from bitcoin - otherwise it is just another altcoin.

And I don't think Monero will be the ultimate crypto neither.

 

this is nonsense. if you believe there will always be a better crypto then there is no use investing in them other than speculation and day trading.

there is such a thing as network effect. and bitcoin's own dwarfs monero's by a couple order of magnitudes.

protocols don't need to be perfect, they just need to be good enough and all signs point to Bitcoin being good enough.

Monero is unique from most other alts in that it does present a use case that the market demands and that can not (yet?) be filled by Bitcoin but I believe it is too little too late for Monero to supplant Bitcoin on technological merits alone

Yes, tech tends to go forward.
When I was kid internet was introduced, and it was with modems that made the noise. And it was expensive, charge was 0.10 usd per minute.  
Now we are having pretty fast internet connections as a human right almost.
When new crypto is introduced, we simply buy us into it. Obviously the one who gets in first will get best price. The last pays the equilibrium price. Same as Monero.

Yet the internet is still running on top of TCP/IP as it was when you were a kid.

You do not need fundamental shift to make things better.
Monero can also be considered as a cryptocurrency and so can bitcoin.

Bitcoin network will work just fine as long as 21 million coins will be mined but the community will not grow unless the price doesn't restart bull trend. Chances are, bitcoin will start having negative network effect and this is the golden opportunity for Monero to claim the first place among the crypto currency.

I used to have most of my cryptos in bitcoin but as the price does nothing but goes down I am not interested in holding it anymore.
I am not saying bitcoin has nothing use but personally I see Monero having more use. It can be used as a everyday currency (once the infrastructure is ready - other than xmr.to - I am refering to things like merchant tools, direct fiat exchange etc).

Monero is useful for me personally and for many others, in a way to keep my funds private.
Who want to expose one's funds to the whole earth? At least not me.

[macsga]

You do not need fundamental shift to make things better.
Monero can also be considered as a cryptocurrency and so can bitcoin.

Bitcoin network will work just fine as long as 21 million coins will be mined but the community will not grow unless the price doesn't restart bull trend. Chances are, bitcoin will start having negative network effect and this is the golden opportunity for Monero to claim the first place among the crypto currency.

I used to have most of my cryptos in bitcoin but as the price does nothing but goes down I am not interested in holding it anymore.
I am not saying bitcoin has nothing use but personally I see Monero having more use. It can be used as a everyday currency (once the infrastructure is ready - other than xmr.to - I am refering to things like merchant tools, direct fiat exchange etc).

Monero is useful for me personally and for many others, in a way to keep my funds private.
Who want to expose one's funds to the whole earth? At least not me.

This is a fundamental error, that many people here make. Sure, there's a surge when the bull run occurs, but during the whole bear-trend last year BTC user base has grown bigger (https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users). Tying BTC/USD price to the user base is utterly wrong, IMHO. Under the current circumstances (ie: unregulated exchanges, gray legal area) it's very easy for somebody with big cash to control the BTC/USD price.

Of course, the same goes for XMR...

[smooth]

You do not need fundamental shift to make things better.
Monero can also be considered as a cryptocurrency and so can bitcoin.

Bitcoin network will work just fine as long as 21 million coins will be mined but the community will not grow unless the price doesn't restart bull trend. Chances are, bitcoin will start having negative network effect and this is the golden opportunity for Monero to claim the first place among the crypto currency.

I used to have most of my cryptos in bitcoin but as the price does nothing but goes down I am not interested in holding it anymore.
I am not saying bitcoin has nothing use but personally I see Monero having more use. It can be used as a everyday currency (once the infrastructure is ready - other than xmr.to - I am refering to things like merchant tools, direct fiat exchange etc).

Monero is useful for me personally and for many others, in a way to keep my funds private.
Who want to expose one's funds to the whole earth? At least not me.

This is a fundamental error, that many people here make. Sure, there's a surge when the bull run occurs, but during the whole bear-trend last year BTC user base has grown bigger (https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users). Tying BTC/USD price to the user base is utterly wrong, IMHO. Under the current circumstances (ie: unregulated exchanges, gray legal area) it's very easy for somebody with big cash to control the BTC/USD price.

Of course, the same goes for XMR...

It was kind of a short period but during the lull at <0.001 XMR gained quite a few users. I have no visibility on how many abandoned it though, so I can't even estimate a net user flow.

There is a natural process where previous non-participants see a historically low but at least somewhat stable price as being an attractive entry point.

[smooth]

Yet the internet is still running on top of TCP/IP as it was when you were a kid.

That is true but the http/html-based web which has been around for two decades is now arguably on the way out and being replaced by apps. Desktop computers (dominant for around three decades) are definitely marginalized as a way of accessing the internet now and some other forms of computing (annual sales of smart phones > total installed base of desktop).

[nakaone]

do we really, as the smartest kids in the room, discuss about a cryptocurrency replacing bitcoin?

no fuckin way this will happen in the near future - money and value is an institution

when we say monero is worth 0.004 you may get a hint about what I am talking.

the comparison to any utility spending technology is complete nonsense - you simply do not substitute value for a slightly better technology, imagine what level of stress it would be to change the way we exchange value every 2-3 years .

the reason why monero is so special is because it can fill the biggest existing niche namely privacy - this alone given makes it better than every other coin despites bitcoin.

[smooth]

the comparison to any utility spending technology is complete nonsense - you simply do not substitute value for a slightly better technology, imagine what level of stress it would be to change the way we exchange value every 2-3 years .

True but I'm not sure how quickly that level of standard gets adopted in the first place. Are we into the TCP era yet or are we back in the Appletalk/netbios frames/ipx/etc. era still?

Whatever crypto really makes it big (and it may well not be Bitcoin or Monero) will likely be dominant for decades if not longer.

[nakaone]

the comparison to any utility spending technology is complete nonsense - you simply do not substitute value for a slightly better technology, imagine what level of stress it would be to change the way we exchange value every 2-3 years .

True but I'm not sure how quickly that level of standard gets adopted in the first place. Are we into the TCP era yet or are we back in the Appletalk/netbios frames/ipx/etc. era still?

Whatever crypto really makes it big (and it may well not be Bitcoin or Monero) will likely be dominant for decades if not longer.

I posted this in the monero economics thread. It is the best approach known to me for answering the question:

technology choice game

I want to share a different approach from the more or less empirical driven approach by risto why monero could be the special one. It is more in the tradition of evolutionary economics and game theory. I think it is quite a helpful approach to make sense of these uncertain markets and should be easy to understand even without an education as economist - I taught it to m.a. students which did not have a background in economics. probably even a guidance regarding development can be derived by it.

we need a few assumptions:

1.) the success of cryptoprotocols especially currencies is driven by network effects

2.) there is a niche for a decentralized private ledger and this niche cannot be filled by bitcoin (otherwise we could stop here)

3.) there is a competitors on the market, existent, or coming in the future

4.) the utility of a network grows with the number of participants



5.) we have two competing technologies, in this case monero and zerocash and three different agents

6.) we assume that zerocash is even superior to monero (zerocash is a placeholder for all coming superior private decentralized ledger)

7.) we assume that two agents coordinated on the inferior technology (in this case monero) get the same utility as the one coordinated on the superior technology, whereas three agents coordinated on the inferior technology get as much as two on the superior technology



8.)
T1 = Zerocash > T2= Monero

9.) utility: numerical example 1T1=2, 2T1=3 3T1=4; 1T2=1 2T2=2 3T2=3

10.) 3T1 with the utility of 4,4,4 is obviously a nash-equilibrium, what is more important is that 3T2 with 3,3,3 is a nash-equilibrium as well, in this case the utility of the network outweights the superiority of the technology


What is important to understand is that we should make very sure that we get the second agent, if we reached this stadium and the rest is relatively sound the war is won. The guidance is obviously that we need a gui to include more people of the agent 2 case. At this point there is no serious competitor, but this will probably change in the future. We do not need to be feared as long as we manage to get agent 2.

This illustration also shows why bitcoiners do not need to be feared of any altcoins - the war over the transparent ledger is won.

The weaknesses of this approach are obviously its simplifications - how do we measure utility of privacy etc. pp, but as an illustration, I guess it is sound

 









 

for bitcoin as well as monero user 2 is obviously the most important. it is a question of definition who user 2 is - but it is definetely not the same person in btc as it is in xmr.

[brg444]

do we really, as the smartest kids in the room, discuss about a cryptocurrency replacing bitcoin?

no fuckin way this will happen in the near future - money and value is an institution

when we say monero is worth 0.004 you may get a hint about what I am talking.

the comparison to any utility spending technology is complete nonsense - you simply do not substitute value for a slightly better technology, imagine what level of stress it would be to change the way we exchange value every 2-3 years .

the reason why monero is so special is because it can fill the biggest existing niche namely privacy - this alone given makes it better than every other coin despites bitcoin.

+1

There's no way you can suggest Monero will replace Bitcoin in public and not get laughed out the room.

No POW coin has any fighting chance against Bitcoin. As it stands right now anyway.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

+1

There's no way you can suggest Monero will replace Bitcoin in public and not get laughed out the room.

No POW coin has any fighting chance against Bitcoin. As it stands right now anyway.

And why is that? Because a very, very small number of people trade it around at a higher price?

Nobody in "public" really even understands what bitcoin is. There's certainly no compelling reason for them to adopt it right now.

[EvanMon]

do we really, as the smartest kids in the room, discuss about a cryptocurrency replacing bitcoin?

no fuckin way this will happen in the near future - money and value is an institution

when we say monero is worth 0.004 you may get a hint about what I am talking.

the comparison to any utility spending technology is complete nonsense - you simply do not substitute value for a slightly better technology, imagine what level of stress it would be to change the way we exchange value every 2-3 years .

the reason why monero is so special is because it can fill the biggest existing niche namely privacy - this alone given makes it better than every other coin despites bitcoin.

99.999% (maybe even more 9s) of people in the world haven't even assigned a value to Bitcoin yet, let alone considered substituting it for something better. Is there a Big Mac index for Bitcoin? How many places that accept Bitcoin aren't converting straight to their native currency because we are still in the "is it worth thousands of $$$$ or is it worth nothing" phase? 21% of tips given through changetip on reddit go unclaimed and a lot of people still think it's just used for buying drugs or it went bankrupt. You gotta admit that it has a bad rep right now. Litecoin looks like it is going on a straight path to zero but you have to realize that Bitcoin has been following the same path which began at the same time and it offers no technological improvements over litecoin so why should it succeed when litecoin shouldn't?

I will add the disclaimer that I am another one of the people that no longer owns any Bitcoin unless they are used to purchase Monero or to use for sports betting because they don't take monero yet. There are some fundamental flaws in Bitcoin that make me think it will not succeed and some that make me not want to use it at all. Biggest is lack of privacy and the other is lack of scalability. If Bitcoin can address those two issues I would jump back in but it seems like there are too many cooks in the kitchen now to come to agreements on major issues. Two years ago I would have aggressively defended Bitcoin to someone saying the things I say now but I am losing faith.

[generalizethis]

In my mind it is much simpler why Monero can overtake Bitcoin; it fulfills the cypherpunk dream of an e-cash. I just use bitcoin as a tool to buy monero and it's because i want e-cash and nothing short of this will do. It's weird for me to think that an intellectual dream/problem could be abandoned because an "almost there" enjoys market share. Bitcoin is a nice attempt (entry point), but it failed the fundamental mission (exit point). I believe Satoshi understood Bitcoin as the start and not the end, so he's probably enjoying Monero's rise with the rest of us.