[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Joshuar]

This has nothing to do with economics or price speculation, but is anyone here a biologist, biochemist, geneticist, etc? Just wondering if it's feasible at all to have the blockchain emulate biological characteristics(Like that of a small animal). I just thought about how a private blockchain such as Monero's would be perfect for such a thing(As the brain, body is "private" until the owner/person wishes otherwise(No one can read your thoughts for example) and not open like a transparent blockchain).

I have a master's degree in Bio- and Medical Informatics. I can't think of any reasonable blockchain uses as a data structure to hold biological data. There are other bioinformatics people in the Monero community (and probably biologist, biochemist, geneticist), but I don't think they'll find such uses too. There is an off-topic monero thread somewhere and a whole off-topic section in the Monero forum.

Edit: A hash or a signiture of a biological data probably, but that applies to any other data.

Oh thank you, do you think the blockchain being decentralized is to any benefit at all? Or would a centralized solution work just as well? (For creating or powering "consciousness"/memory, learning, etc.

[cAPSLOCK]

A very nasty looking head and shoulders there...

I'm no chart genius, but... ... ...

[Anon136]

A very nasty looking head and shoulders there...

I'm no chart genius, but... ... ...

This big market buy that just happened broke that pattern, didn't it?

[dEBRUYNE]

A very nasty looking head and shoulders there...

I'm no chart genius, but... ... ...

This big market buy that just happened broke that pattern, didn't it?

Technical analysis is hardly usable in such a illiquid market as the XMR one. People can easily game important price levels. Although what I've said before, some people still use it and it indeed looked like a head&shoulders. On top of that, I think it is falling back in the ascending channel that you can draw from the 0.00978 bottom and that is actually a good thing. We shot out of the channel when soaring to 0.0043, but in my opinion it is better to fall back in it and gradually move back up.

EDIT: Channel I was talking about: (credits to dnaleor)

Note: This was drawn 12-16 hours ago, the bottom line is now somewhere around 0.0034, so we bounced nicely of that.

[iourzzz]

Monero is on the 4th place in volume 24 h

[drawingthesun]

Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.

For now...

[Anon136]

Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.

For now...

I put a buy order in at 0.00302 just in case. But I'm not counting on it. That giant sell order doesn't seem to reflect general sentiment. I think the only thing most xmr holders are feeling at the moment is vindication, not opportunistic. I could be wrong though, what do you guys think, are you feeling like taking some profit?

[wpalczynski]

Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.

For now...

I put a buy order in at 0.00302 just in case. But I'm not counting on it. That giant sell order doesn't seem to reflect general sentiment. I think the only thing most xmr holders are feeling at the moment is vindication, not opportunistic. I could be wrong though, what do you guys think, are you feeling like taking some profit?

A small correction had to happen after a 4x rise in 5 weeks.  Doesn't feel like it will go below 0.003 (As originally predicted by Risto, according to his analysis XMR doesn't like to stay in the 002-003 range).

[Siexpert]

Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.

For now...

I put a buy order in at 0.00302 just in case. But I'm not counting on it. That giant sell order doesn't seem to reflect general sentiment. I think the only thing most xmr holders are feeling at the moment is vindication, not opportunistic. I could be wrong though, what do you guys think, are you feeling like taking some profit?

I have sold almost all of my stash, because I'm expecting a bigger pullback, maybe down to the 0.002 level, which was a previous high and a breakout point in the current rally. But if you are a long-term holder, not a trader/speculator, there is no reason to worry, because a slow and healthy rise is much better then "pumps". Unless the price will go under 0.001 (which seems almost impossible right now, but anything can happen), the direction for Monero to go is up.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like many have sold - as I expected. If the rise continues, they might need to buy back if they are speculators who sold. Better to dump now than higher. It is indeed collecting some steam now below 0.004... 
I expected in my personal analysis that people consider 0.004 as a potential exit point since Risto said in 2014 that 0.004 is the highest price Monero probably will go (amd that Monero will be trading between 0.002-0.004 which it actually did for long time).
The true big rally might therefore start if 0.004 will be broken with power and the price takes some distance towards 0.004. When we crossed 0.003, it did not happen overnight. There seems to be some resistance to these round numbers. Sounds psychological thing.  

I still think Monero will replace Bitcoin as a number one 1 crypto. Even I have talked to some people who bought directly Monero... They bought bitcoins only in order to buy Monero so I think people will prefer Monero over btc thanks to privacy features. Lack of anonymity seems to be a major setback of bitcoin in many people's opinion. Monero fixes it.
Bitcoin will not disappear but just looses its significance. Just my speculation.  

[generalizethis]

Looks like many have sold - as I expected. If the rise continues, they might need to buy back if they are speculators who sold. Better to dump now than higher. It is indeed collecting some steam now below 0.004... 
I expected in my personal analysis that people consider 0.004 as a potential exit point since Risto said in 2014 that 0.004 is the highest price Monero probably will go (amd that Monero will be trading between 0.002-0.004 which it actually did for long time).
The true big rally might therefore start if 0.004 will be broken with power and the price takes some distance towards 0.004. When we crossed 0.003, it did not happen overnight. There seems to be some resistance to these round numbers. Sounds psychological thing.  

I still think Monero will replace Bitcoin as a number one 1 crypto. Even I have talked to some people who bought directly Monero... They bought bitcoins only in order to buy Monero so I think people will prefer Monero over btc thanks to privacy features. Lack of anonymity seems to be a major setback of bitcoin in many people's opinion. Monero fixes it.
Bitcoin will not disappear but just looses its significance. Just my speculation.  

I think it's even simpler than this: Sell wall appears at 48, buy walls disappear, price declines, weak hands falter (red moon and all that nonsense), accumulators continue on path of least resistance.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like many have sold - as I expected. If the rise continues, they might need to buy back if they are speculators who sold. Better to dump now than higher. It is indeed collecting some steam now below 0.004...  
I expected in my personal analysis that people consider 0.004 as a potential exit point since Risto said in 2014 that 0.004 is the highest price Monero probably will go (amd that Monero will be trading between 0.002-0.004 which it actually did for long time).
The true big rally might therefore start if 0.004 will be broken with power and the price takes some distance towards 0.004. When we crossed 0.003, it did not happen overnight. There seems to be some resistance to these round numbers. Sounds psychological thing.  

I still think Monero will replace Bitcoin as a number one 1 crypto. Even I have talked to some people who bought directly Monero... They bought bitcoins only in order to buy Monero so I think people will prefer Monero over btc thanks to privacy features. Lack of anonymity seems to be a major setback of bitcoin in many people's opinion. Monero fixes it.
Bitcoin will not disappear but just looses its significance. Just my speculation.  

I think it's even simpler than this: Sell wall appears at 48, buy walls disappear, price declines, weak hands falter (red moon and all that nonsense), accumulators continue on path of least resistance.

Next round is the turn of buyers to enter to the markets.
I hope there will be enough liquidity in Moneros so that the buyers will not take the rise into too fast channel.
Usually this ends badly. Steady a few percent daily is a good phase in rising. By this way nobody really knows how high it will go.
Personally I hope we will establish over the previous ATH.
It is realistic to keep it there, for instance, if the price has strong support at 0.02, mining costs ~ 300 btc daily. In dollars it is 75,000 usd (with 250 usd/btc price).
It is important to keep in mind that the longer it takes to reach that support, the lower of the costs of maintaining that level will be due to decline of emission curve.

[sphericon]

Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.

For now...

I put a buy order in at 0.00302 just in case. But I'm not counting on it. That giant sell order doesn't seem to reflect general sentiment. I think the only thing most xmr holders are feeling at the moment is vindication, not opportunistic. I could be wrong though, what do you guys think, are you feeling like taking some profit?

General sentiment is definitely not wanting to sell.  I believe the sells we saw were inspired by the dumper (catalyst), as people thought XMR may have "peaked." I assume they are hoping to get back in cheaper. This may happen, but in my experience timing the XMR market is difficult at best.

Strong hands haven't sold and will not sell for at least another order of magnitude of price increase, if not two.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like a giant sell off, perhaps this denotes that the peak has past.

For now...

I put a buy order in at 0.00302 just in case. But I'm not counting on it. That giant sell order doesn't seem to reflect general sentiment. I think the only thing most xmr holders are feeling at the moment is vindication, not opportunistic. I could be wrong though, what do you guys think, are you feeling like taking some profit?

General sentiment is definitely not wanting to sell.  I believe the sells we saw were inspired by the dumper (catalyst), as people thought XMR may have "peaked." I assume they are hoping to get back in cheaper. This may happen, but in my experience timing the XMR market is difficult at best.

Strong hands haven't sold and will not sell for at least another order of magnitude of price increase, if not two.

I agree with your statement on strong hands. No point selling others in the community this coin. Just hodling is the way to go with this beast. Buying a little bit more every now and then in order to support the price growth.
I am one of those who only accumulates and when there is true mainstream adoption with any larger scale, I will refuse selling since I do not need to sell and the risk of selling any meaningful amount is too high - it is hard to get those coins back at lower price since significiantly lower prices are unlikely at this moment.
Perhaps if coin completely fails there might be dumps and that's pretty much it. However, this is unlikely scenario. Soon it will go back to 0.004 and then it will stay there for longer since now it looks kinda weak.

[jehst]

Think about .004 XMR with 16000 coins mined per day.

 0.004 * 16000 = 64 BTC per day. 23360 BTC per year. It's not all sold, but it's a lot of value created quickly.

There can and will be spikes to .01 XMR/BTC  and higher but it can't easily maintain those highs. Even with interest from bitcoin whales with 10,000+ liquid bitcoin. Do you think those bitcoin whales are going to spend all their bitcoin on buying XMR every day so that XMR never ever goes down?

In the shorter term, we can see from LTC, NMC, PPC price history that altcoins will initially fall when bitcoin rallies. So if bitcoin makes a quick run at 300 and 400+, you will likely see altcoins drop as altcoin miners take profits and altcoin holders move into bitcoin. Altcoin mining difficulty will not jump as fast as the price can.

My guesses:

1) If you are holding XMR, be patient and you will see .01
2) If you are holding BTC, be patient and you will see opportunities to enter XMR.

[e-coinomist]

I still think Monero will replace Bitcoin as a number one 1 crypto. Even I have talked to some people who bought directly Monero... They bought bitcoins only in order to buy Monero so I think people will prefer Monero over btc thanks to privacy features. Lack of anonymity seems to be a major setback of bitcoin in many people's opinion. Monero fixes it.
Bitcoin will not disappear but just looses its significance. Just my speculation.  

Doesn't catch it completely. Bitcoin entered the public stage with a number of exspections

1) beeing private internet money
2) mineable at home, by any means (was "everybody" in the former, later "people who been able to grab specialized hardware")

It is more like "disgraced love" by now. You cannot mine BTC, nor can you buy into some Ponzi-Cloudmining service (unless you are insane, then no barriers can hold). As a result, buy support for BTC isn't in it's best shape, more declining steadily.

Monero has to make a point in fullfilling both exspectations, meaning some sort of Dark Net market acceptance and ASIC resistance. Then "investor" type of people would take a closer look at it, too.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Think about .004 XMR with 16000 coins mined per day.

 0.004 * 16000 = 64 BTC per day. 23360 BTC per year. It's not all sold, but it's a lot of value created quickly.

There can and will be spikes to .01  and higher but it can't maintain those highs. Even with interest from bitcoin whales with 10,000+ liquid bitcoin. Do you think those bitcoin whales are going to spend all their bitcoin on buying XMR every day so that XMR never ever goes down?

Monero's daily emission is currently well less than 16 000, it is something like 15600 and declining fast.
After 1 year it is signigiciantly lower.
Therefore I think it is possible to keep up the price.
Keep in mind, not only btc whales buy into XMR but people who have fiat... They get Moneros now very affordably (like bitcoin in 2011, only 1 usd per coin).

While some might sell Moneros if btc rallies, I don't think it will be something that lasts for long time.
Usually altcoins (for some strange reason) tent to rally against btc when btc rises agains fiat and vice versa. I don't quite understand why it is like this but the history shows this type of behaviour in altcoins.
Miners, especially those whose mining costs are low, are probably cashing out coins on regular basis no matter what the price is. After all, they are in business and not speculators.
I have fiat and I am buying btc in order to buy xmr every now and then, just to support the price.

[jehst]

Think about .004 XMR with 16000 coins mined per day.

 0.004 * 16000 = 64 BTC per day. 23360 BTC per year. It's not all sold, but it's a lot of value created quickly.

There can and will be spikes to .01  and higher but it can't maintain those highs. Even with interest from bitcoin whales with 10,000+ liquid bitcoin. Do you think those bitcoin whales are going to spend all their bitcoin on buying XMR every day so that XMR never ever goes down?

Monero's daily emission is currently well less than 16 000, it is something like 15600 and declining fast.
After 1 year it is signigiciantly lower.
Therefore I think it is possible to keep up the price.
Keep in mind, not only btc whales buy into XMR but people who have fiat... They get Moneros now very affordably (like bitcoin in 2011, only 1 usd per coin).

Oh, is it 15600 now? Wow, time is moving fast.
Yes, I think XMR will reach .01 easily but not in a straight line. So it should not be alarming to see it at .003

[TrueCryptonaire]

Think about .004 XMR with 16000 coins mined per day.

 0.004 * 16000 = 64 BTC per day. 23360 BTC per year. It's not all sold, but it's a lot of value created quickly.

There can and will be spikes to .01  and higher but it can't maintain those highs. Even with interest from bitcoin whales with 10,000+ liquid bitcoin. Do you think those bitcoin whales are going to spend all their bitcoin on buying XMR every day so that XMR never ever goes down?

Monero's daily emission is currently well less than 16 000, it is something like 15600 and declining fast.
After 1 year it is signigiciantly lower.
Therefore I think it is possible to keep up the price.
Keep in mind, not only btc whales buy into XMR but people who have fiat... They get Moneros now very affordably (like bitcoin in 2011, only 1 usd per coin).

Oh, is it 15600 now? Wow, time is moving fast.
Yes, I think XMR will reach .01 easily but not in a straight line. So it should not be alarming to see it at .003

0.003 and lower is a screaming buying opportunity.
I think even the current or higher price is a buying opportunity especially if you do it with fiat.

It is indeed amazing how fast the block reward is declining - this will put some pressure on btc early adopters to receive Monero as their personal Cryptocurrency.  

After about 1 year the daily mining reward is around 10 000 coins only (and declining).

[dewdeded]

Are there any posts or thoughts on fairness of the XMR distribution setup and how it plays out?

Are there any posts or thoughts on, that the (in my eyes and judged by today) too slow distribution, may hinder adoption, because its slows down natural, organic price development?

I feel very awkward and undecided. For Bitcoin, I wish the distribution would have been slower, because it very clearly shaft early adopters, over later regular adopters & users.

On the opposite, for Monero, I sometimes wish the distribution would have been faster, because I think the current reward schedule with its selling pressure, could hinder adoption & organic price development today (see above).

I ask a myself a easy question, today "80% of Monero will be mined in 4 years" & we are just one year in, would it we better for us, the whole project and vision behind and still be as fair as possible, if reward schedule would be "80% of Monero will be mined in 2 or 2,5 years".

It feels to me like we have to wait alot from now vs. competing coins, where the distribution is faster. (for whatever reasons: Premines, Flashmines, start heavy schedules, ICO, PoS&PoW-combos, ...)

I am interested on your thoughts on this. Thank you for reading.