[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

the government should be freaking out about the potential implications of this tech. but they aren't. at all. not even a wiff of it. firmly in the ignore stage.

Implications? Freaking out?

It makes tax laws almost unenforceable. Not entirely because if you work at mcdonalds and buy yourself a boeing 747 for personal use one day they might just have some questions. But in a lot of cases it does.

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[G2M]

It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc.
Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there...

I wonder who is the first to pull the trigger.      

Heh, actually since someone first mentioned that a million dollars would get us there really got me thinking..

I mean, the sum of money we're talking about is equivalent to the spending that a single medium-sized company (worth 50-100 million USD) would typically spend on a single major facility renovation.

We're talking about something as small as adding a 30' length of hallway, and three or four production rooms with blenders and automated packaging lines in a single FDA regulated food manufacturing facility could be that much..

Just the relatively minimal amount of money is what's getting at me..

I like them odds.

[GingerAle]

the government should be freaking out about the potential implications of this tech. but they aren't. at all. not even a wiff of it. firmly in the ignore stage.

Implications? Freaking out?

It makes tax laws almost unenforceable. Not entirely because if you work at mcdonalds and buy yourself a boeing 747 for personal use one day they might just have some questions. But in a lot of cases it does.

They could still jail you. Fine you. Disrupt every aspect of your life that's not financial.

Alternatively, if StateCoin comes to pass, they'll just centralize the hardware / network and then there will be no way to AVOID tax laws if you use statecoin (and you'll have to if it becomes == USD), because the taxes are the transaction / mining fees. Unfortunately, this is the equivalent of a sales tax, which are not progressive.

[macsga]

It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc.
Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there...

I wonder who is the first to pull the trigger.      

Heh, actually since someone first mentioned that a million dollars would get us there really got me thinking..

I mean, the sum of money we're talking about is equivalent to the spending that a single medium-sized company (worth 50-100 million USD) would typically spend on a single major facility renovation.

We're talking about something as small as adding a 30' length of hallway, and three or four production rooms with blenders and automated packaging lines in a single FDA regulated food manufacturing facility could be that much..

Just the relatively minimal amount of money is what's getting at me..

I like them odds.

Nice observation. The analogy is fairly accurate, but please let me add that the total cap for BTC is only "a mere" 3.4Bn. What we think it's "big" may be very small for ie: a hedge fund that will decide to "invest" $1Bn in BTC (or XMR) for that matter. Those funds though, are not in because they believe in crypto, rather than make more fiat from trading. So, it may cause a short bubble that will temporarily push the coin but then will fall back.

[vokain]

the government should be freaking out about the potential implications of this tech. but they aren't. at all. not even a wiff of it. firmly in the ignore stage.

Implications? Freaking out?

It makes tax laws almost unenforceable. Not entirely because if you work at mcdonalds and buy yourself a boeing 747 for personal use one day they might just have some questions. But in a lot of cases it does.

They could still jail you. Fine you. Disrupt every aspect of your life that's not financial.

Alternatively, if StateCoin comes to pass, they'll just centralize the hardware / network and then there will be no way to AVOID tax laws if you use statecoin (and you'll have to if it becomes == USD), because the taxes are the transaction / mining fees. Unfortunately, this is the equivalent of a sales tax, which are not progressive.

We already have USD-Tethers there's no point to StateCoin. And there is a way to avoid tax laws if you don't cash out USD-Tethers or any coin for fiat, making you liable to said tax laws. Don't play in their sandbox if at all possible and instead play on this here nice beach we have

[rpietila]

It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc.
Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there...

The way to think of it conceptually is with the price elasticity on buy(sell) pressure.

This is defined as the increase_of_marketcap : increase_in_investment

In the past, I have estimated that with cryptos, this ranges from 4-10 over longer periods. Eg. CryptoKingdom has now marketcap of 700,000 XMR and perhaps about 70,000 have been invested to it, this makes the price elasticity ratio 10.

If the same ratio applies with the escape of capital from BTC to XMR, without change in the total cake, they meet halfway as follows (figures in $100M precision)

Start: BTC_mktcap: 3,800M, XMR_mktcap: 0M.

End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M

Capital flight from BTC: (3,800M - 1,900M) / 10 = 190M.

Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time).

Math is different if new money makes up for the bulk of the buy pressure. Still, I believe the 4-10 ratio holds for fiat/XMR as it did for fiat/BTC.

In this case, about 400M-1,000M USD is needed to reach BTC marketcap.

Many conditions apply, time is ignored, etc. but you get the basic point.

[smooth]

guys please take it easy. i know times are crazy, some allready are very in the green, but we are still far far away from all this.

What's wrong with a little mania among friends?

[TrueCryptonaire]

It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc.
Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there...

I wonder who is the first to pull the trigger.      

Heh, actually since someone first mentioned that a million dollars would get us there really got me thinking..

I mean, the sum of money we're talking about is equivalent to the spending that a single medium-sized company (worth 50-100 million USD) would typically spend on a single major facility renovation.

We're talking about something as small as adding a 30' length of hallway, and three or four production rooms with blenders and automated packaging lines in a single FDA regulated food manufacturing facility could be that much..

Just the relatively minimal amount of money is what's getting at me..

I like them odds.

Yes, this is insane... I think many people are seriously pondering what to do. 

[GingerAle]

the government should be freaking out about the potential implications of this tech. but they aren't. at all. not even a wiff of it. firmly in the ignore stage.

Implications? Freaking out?

It makes tax laws almost unenforceable. Not entirely because if you work at mcdonalds and buy yourself a boeing 747 for personal use one day they might just have some questions. But in a lot of cases it does.

They could still jail you. Fine you. Disrupt every aspect of your life that's not financial.

Alternatively, if StateCoin comes to pass, they'll just centralize the hardware / network and then there will be no way to AVOID tax laws if you use statecoin (and you'll have to if it becomes == USD), because the taxes are the transaction / mining fees. Unfortunately, this is the equivalent of a sales tax, which are not progressive.

We already have USD-Tethers there's no point to StateCoin. And there is a way to avoid tax laws if you don't cash out USD-Tethers or any coin for fiat, making you liable to said tax laws. Don't play in their sandbox if at all possible and instead play on this here nice beach we have

No, by "statecoin" I mean a private crytpocurrency network run by the state, on specialized hardware.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/federal-reserve-bitcoin-strategy/

i.e., its just like bitcoin in every respect except you can't mine it. no one can mine it except the federal reserve. You can have a wallet software to access your accounts on the ledger. Its still a cryptocurrency. The same hashing and ledger storage will be done, but just centralized. Every existing federal reserve location will be a node / mining farm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branches

THIS, imo, is inevitable.

[TrueCryptonaire]

It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc.
Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there...

The way to think of it conceptually is with the price elasticity on buy(sell) pressure.

This is defined as the increase_of_marketcap : increase_in_investment

In the past, I have estimated that with cryptos, this ranges from 4-10 over longer periods. Eg. CryptoKingdom has now marketcap of 700,000 XMR and perhaps about 70,000 have been invested to it, this makes the price elasticity ratio 10.

If the same ratio applies with the escape of capital from BTC to XMR, without change in the total cake, they meet halfway as follows (figures in $100M precision)

Start: BTC_mktcap: 3,800M, XMR_mktcap: 0M.

End: BTC_mktcap: 1,900M, XMR_mktcap: 1,900M

Capital flight from BTC: (3,800M - 1,900M) / 10 = 190M.

Number of BTC exchanged for XMR as "buy/sell pressure": ~1 million (because the USD/BTC halved from 250 to 125 during the time).

Math is different if new money makes up for the bulk of the buy pressure. Still, I believe the 4-10 ratio holds for fiat/XMR as it did for fiat/BTC.

In this case, about 400M-1,000M USD is needed to reach BTC marketcap.

Many conditions apply, time is ignored, etc. but you get the basic point.

That's very true.

I have a good feeling about that this will be actually bigger than btc since this is second generation who has all the experience of the first generation (+ many new millionaires which were scarce in btc in the beginning).

[vokain]

the government should be freaking out about the potential implications of this tech. but they aren't. at all. not even a wiff of it. firmly in the ignore stage.

Implications? Freaking out?

It makes tax laws almost unenforceable. Not entirely because if you work at mcdonalds and buy yourself a boeing 747 for personal use one day they might just have some questions. But in a lot of cases it does.

They could still jail you. Fine you. Disrupt every aspect of your life that's not financial.

Alternatively, if StateCoin comes to pass, they'll just centralize the hardware / network and then there will be no way to AVOID tax laws if you use statecoin (and you'll have to if it becomes == USD), because the taxes are the transaction / mining fees. Unfortunately, this is the equivalent of a sales tax, which are not progressive.

We already have USD-Tethers there's no point to StateCoin. And there is a way to avoid tax laws if you don't cash out USD-Tethers or any coin for fiat, making you liable to said tax laws. Don't play in their sandbox if at all possible and instead play on this here nice beach we have

No, by "statecoin" I mean a private crytpocurrency network run by the state, on specialized hardware.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/federal-reserve-bitcoin-strategy/

i.e., its just like bitcoin in every respect except you can't mine it. no one can mine it except the federal reserve. You can have a wallet software to access your accounts on the ledger. Its still a cryptocurrency. The same hashing and ledger storage will be done, but just centralized. Every existing federal reserve location will be a node / mining farm.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Federal_Reserve_branches

THIS, imo, is inevitable.

Good, at least we'd know how many FRAUDcoins are in the blockchain.

[vokain]

guys please take it easy. i know times are crazy, some allready are very in the green, but we are still far far away from all this.

What's wrong with a little mania among friends?

nothing really! i am also an uber bull if i am honest.
but there is the slight chance some new users make wrong decissions possibly maybe whatever

(this does NOT mean it's not a good decission to buy right now )

ps, we need a wall observer  incl. chartbuddy

Good, I hope they make wrong decisions sooner so they make less wrong decisions sooner.

[nakaone]

guys please take it easy. i know times are crazy, some allready are very in the green, but we are still far far away from all this.
i share truecryptonaire's opinion in many ways, but from outside it might appear illusory for some.

lets all give our best to make it happen, i talked to many people about xmr, explained them the differences to bitcoin, they all loved it
also colleagues at my work (big bank) like the idea since monero seems ideal for any kind of b2b transaction.

most still ignore us, some laugth, some allready fight. always be prepared for more

+1 - monero rises by the factor 4 and everbody goes insane here. I do not want to piss on the parade and it is true *g* that everyone loves monero and is quite excited about it but at this point we have:

1.) one service taking monero directly (a psychiatrist in NY afaik) and ristos castle (?)
2.) xmr.to which converts xmr into btc
3.) some minor but fine services

bitcoin is accepted by

1.) 150000 stores worldwide
2.) got over the last year 700 million venture capital
3.) has a marketcap which is 500 - 1000 times higher
4.) a trading volume which is around 200-300 times higher

there are some data analysts who collected user numbers of altcoins - btc grows by week in the amounts the biggest altcoins has in total user numbers.

a realistic approach would be to get 10-25% of btcs market share in the future - these would be a huge success.

but to realistically talk about xmr as the future dominant ledger sound within all reasonable enthusiam delusional

[G2M]

It is just a matter of time when Monero will reach the parity with btc.
Again, 5,000 btc marketbuy gets you there and probably 10,000-20,000 btc will hold you there...

I wonder who is the first to pull the trigger.      

Heh, actually since someone first mentioned that a million dollars would get us there really got me thinking..

I mean, the sum of money we're talking about is equivalent to the spending that a single medium-sized company (worth 50-100 million USD) would typically spend on a single major facility renovation.

We're talking about something as small as adding a 30' length of hallway, and three or four production rooms with blenders and automated packaging lines in a single FDA regulated food manufacturing facility could be that much..

Just the relatively minimal amount of money is what's getting at me..

I like them odds.

Nice observation. The analogy is fairly accurate, but please let me add that the total cap for BTC is only "a mere" 3.4Bn. What we think it's "big" may be very small for ie: a hedge fund that will decide to "invest" $1Bn in BTC (or XMR) for that matter. Those funds though, are not in because they believe in crypto, rather than make more fiat from trading. So, it may cause a short bubble that will temporarily push the coin but then will fall back.

Good point!

Actually, just the different perspective of viewing it that way got me thinking about all alts, and even BTC in the way you mentioned it.

Take for example any of the other coins that have even been around a billion in marketcap .. like LTC or ripple. Regardless of the fundamentals that brought them there, given our same situation, that's still only representative of 1/3 of what BTC is at right now. Obviously I'm simplifying the situation, but the corresponding situation would be more representative of a single production room and 10' of hallway for the single building of the single company.

It's given me the perspective that regardless of anything else that's touched a 10 figure market cap, that's still all it is in the real world. A couple months worth of work and planning involving about 20-30 people in a 400 person company.

If that's all that our competition has been able to present us with..well there really is a lot more room for growth on levels that I hadn't considered before. All the trolling, or perceived competence or success means nothing really, yet.

Another decent example, maybe more relatable for some: Entertainment value of a single movie, that may or may not be watched more than once in a lifetime. So, let's say for maybe the equivalent of three watches, or about 4.5 hours of likely millions of peoples lifetimes (depending on how many watch it). Anyways, just the promise of about 4.5 hours of entertainment has brought in over 3 million dollars from only a couple 10,000 people (34k, to be exact). Here's the link: https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/super-troopers-2

One single movie, has been crowdfunded the amount of money to put us squarely at number 1 and hold us there.

[pinky]

guys please take it easy. i know times are crazy, some allready are very in the green, but we are still far far away from all this.
i share truecryptonaire's opinion in many ways, but from outside it might appear illusory for some.

lets all give our best to make it happen, i talked to many people about xmr, explained them the differences to bitcoin, they all loved it
also colleagues at my work (big bank) like the idea since monero seems ideal for any kind of b2b transaction.

most still ignore us, some laugth, some allready fight. always be prepared for more

+1 - monero rises by the factor 4 and everbody goes insane here. I do not want to piss on the parade and it is true *g* that everyone loves monero and is quite excited about it but at this point we have:

1.) one service taking monero directly (a psychiatrist in NY afaik) and ristos castle (?)
2.) xmr.to which converts xmr into btc
3.) some minor but fine services

bitcoin is accepted by

1.) 150000 stores worldwide
2.) got over the last year 700 million venture capital
3.) has a marketcap which is 500 - 1000 times higher
4.) a trading volume which is around 200-300 times higher

there are some data analysts who collected user numbers of altcoins - btc grows by week in the amounts the biggest altcoins has in total user numbers.

a realistic approach would be to get 10-25% of btcs market share in the future - these would be a huge success.

but to realistically talk about xmr as the future dominant ledger sound within all reasonable enthusiam delusional

There is always one guy that ruins the party. 

[rpietila]

Hyperinflation (as it is felt - rapidly rising prices) does not have to do with printing money (although that is one way to cause hyperinflation).

Hyperinflation is the escape from the bad money to the good money. During hyperinflation, the marketcap of the bad money constantly shrinks, regardless whether it is being printed or not.

During hyperinflation, the holders of the bad money almost all lose, because only about 10% of the purchasing power can be exchanged for the good money during the whole process which may last years until climax. The total purchasing power stays constant, yet may have fluctuations, because typically hyperinflationary periods coincide with other negative events.

The fact that only 5-10% of BTC need to be exchanged for another coin for the latter to gain an equal marketcap, is making the situation interesting.

I predicted a forward escape in 2013 (the hyperinflation of all fiat currencies vs. BTC, not related to printing money). The prediction did not come true; paper money is still in use. However, the purchasing power of BTC is now 2-15x higher than during the time. (I have since discontinued making other than probabilistic predictions, so I can no more be wrong, but the possibility of gaining by doing what I say is still there.)

The concept of forward escape from a crypto to another, is still an interesting one to consider. Even 2% of BTC moving to another coin for the reason that there is a perceived problem in BTC that the other one does not have, could launch "hyperinflation", causing BTC to become worthless and the marketcap migrate to the other coin. This is still 100,000s of BTC, though, and the igniter must be prepared to spend months if not years for accumulation, and has other options as well, such as forking the superior technology and becoming an early adopter in the new coin.

Also there is no perfect information in the markets, most Bitcoin holders not to mention non-holders have never heard about Monero for instance, although it can easily be conceived that the brewing of this event would cross the general media barrier, providing everyone the basic information on it.

It is intellectually sound to chart the edge-case scenarios, even if the actual changes often are gradual.

[DeViLRitual]

there is another thread to stay away from monero..

[smooth]

1.) one service taking monero directly (a psychiatrist in NY afaik) and ristos castle (?)
2.) xmr.to which converts xmr into btc
3.) some minor but fine services

4) our first run-away scam.

That has to be worth something on the "making it" scale.

[Melbustus]

...

He most certainly is as he is employing a Bitcoin service paid in XMR.

Only until the merchants stop getting tired of paying to convert their appcoins, and decide to accept Monero directly. Don't worry someone will build btc.to for the poor schlubs who still hold btc at that point..

That's atypically cocky of you...

[Melbustus]

the government should be freaking out about the potential implications of this tech. but they aren't. at all. not even a wiff of it. firmly in the ignore stage.

Well, there *is* a "whiff" of it, so to speak. During the Jan 2013 NYDFS BitLicense exploratory panels, Lawsky made some comment to the effect of: "...maybe we need to require that all virtual currencies use a transparent ledger" (paraphrasing). Remember, Zerocash has been on the radar for a while.

In any event, I think Bitcoin kind-of luck-boxed into being something that govs can accept. There's some quote from Satoshi where he basically outlines something akin to ring-signatures as a desirable design, but didn't have an implementation for it. If he had, and Bitcoin had been launched with native robust privacy, I fear it's path would've been *much* more difficult. As is, I think it's path is workable and probably leads to much higher market cap. Some people around here seem to underestimate the degree to which truly aggressive widespread multi-government legal action would curtail adoption and value.

So I think Bitcoin kinda stumbled into this (from a practical perspective) best of both worlds scenario, where it *can* afford reasonable privacy via various techniques, yet is palatable to govs because it *is* an open ledger.

That said, I think the native-privacy niche is the big one to be filled by an alt, and Monero has a nice shot at eating the market-caps of many of the other top-10 coins.