[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

There was a bunch of FUD on the thread and trollbox about the anonymity being broken which may have played some role in the sell off. Fluffypony analyzed it and found it to be nonsense. We do know of certain statistical weaknesses that will be improved over time (as we reported some time back in MRL-0004), but there is no "break"

fluffypony's post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg10988613#msg10988613

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[drawingthesun]

holy shit, at least volume is high  

rebounce soon? i personally do not expect a longer downturn, but thats just me. sentiment turned very fast the last 2 days..

Sentiment always turns fast during a bubble.

Look, Monero increased due to what news?

Nothing.

When the first rise happened I thought it would be a healthy up turn as I generally regard Monero as a strong coin.
But when it started to spike quickly, I knew what this was another worthless pump and dump.

What a bore, same old same old.

[rpietila]

if the past performance of this coin is any indicator

... people get complacent that the downtrend will last forever ...

Also the bottom will most certainly be below 0.002, even I have sold a few coins because I will certainly pick them up cheaper in a couple of days.

... and this kind of activity increases ...

... in the end making people a little burned.

(Fibonacci says the bottom for a major intrend correction is in the 230-300 range; if downtrend is still in force, we are going sub-90 - pick your preference)

[hodlmybtc]

Bought at .0038, put a sell in at .0046. Missed it by that much. Is this the start of another multi-month decline or a blip? Thank you for your valuable insight.

I'd say multi-month decline. What I have found with Monero is that too many people don't actually care about the technology and only want profits.

I'd expect prices close to 0.0038 around August if the past performance of this coin is any indicator.
Also the bottom will most certainly be below 0.002, even I have sold a few coins because I will certainly pick them up cheaper in a couple of days.

I think we're probably going to 0.004 again before 0.002, it's not strange people are taking profits after a 400%+ price increase and most people who wanted to sell probably already did between 0.003 and 0.0043.

Also it takes a 30k XMR buy to reach 0.004 again and a 30k sell would dump the price to only 0.0026, so I'd say the chance of retesting 0.0043 is higher than going < 0.002.

[generalizethis]

holy shit, at least volume is high  

rebounce soon? i personally do not expect a longer downturn, but thats just me. sentiment turned very fast the last 2 days..

Yeah, I was watching the volume too--top five last few days. Not sure what to make of it all. The sell-off was in all three anonymity coins (maybe more, was only watching xmr, drk, sdc), so maybe a market wide reaction to   --looks lemmingesque to me, but xmr seems to be holding the pattern--so why? Someone wants to accumulate at a lower price? Someone over-accumulated and took profit and redistributed coins? Someone trying to sink the market or wants to shake-out weak hands? Other? I'm assuming since the major buy walls disappeared around the same time the major sell wall (48K) appeared that it is a strategical move--though the general market may have played into it chaotically--seems the player(s) had the strategy well prepared for a market opportunity or  just got lucky with the timing or had some divine intervention (I don't really believe the last point).

Again, this assumes the buy walls and sell wall at 48K are run by the same player(s) which most likely won't be validated either way. So I'm speculating  

[jehst]

I also doubt we'll be going below .002. Momentum is still with the bulls.

[gaba]

The bottom for copy coin with rpietila and fluffy is near 0. These 'movement' becoming ridiculous.

[rpietila]

Those guys are suh a joke better sell ur XMR now

[Hueristic]

Those guys are suh a joke better sell ur XMR now

Finally something to wake up to to make me laugh with my coffee!

These retards really think anyone with more than one brain cell will for for their shit?

The real players are moving into Monero now and they don't fall for these juvenile attempts.

Funny part is all they did was lose money and will be thinking twice about trying this again. Their game is one of diminishing returns that if played long enough will get them burned if this one doesn't do it already.

[TaunSew]

If you look at the market tabs on Poloniex - you can see Monero is not the only coin taking a beating:   Monero, BitsharesX, NEM and then NXT and Doge to a lesser extent.   Someone is definitely dropping the cement shoes on higher profiled projects.   They can't all be fudded at the same time and at the same severity: can they?

Only stuff that's really going up is like SDC, MaidSafe and Crypti and those coins / platforms are pretty questionable.



It's easy to point the FUD finger, and often there is evidence to corroborate the conclusion (like posts on BTT and simultaneous drops), and yet it falls short of explaining coincidences..   like these high profiled coins all taking a beating at the same time.

[rpietila]

Those guys are suh a joke better sell ur XMR now

Finally something to wake up to to make me laugh with my coffee!

These retards really think anyone with more than one brain cell will for for their shit?

The real players are moving into Monero now and they don't fall for these juvenile attempts.

Funny part is all they did was lose money and will be thinking twice about trying this again. Their game is one of diminishing returns that if played long enough will get them burned if this one doesn't do it already.

While I am sitting in my office (5pm Easter Day) about to start specifying Crypto Kingdom RESTA pool formulas to make this game a real spearhead in driving XMR adoption in a few weeks' time, The Other Joker is sitting in his office running simulations that prove that the FUD was completely made-up.

Since XMR has no devs, no team, no community and no vision, and

Those guys are suh a joke better sell ur XMR now

Shame that I had the time to buy only a little in 285ish... 

[Hueristic]

...

Shame that I had the time to buy only a little in 285ish...  

Yeah, sux that's about where I sold.

That's OK, I'm here for the long run and there will be a dip I can get back in. I stand bye my prediction .005 end of June. 2 1/2 months to get back in before then.

If I was Fluffy, I wouldn't waste time rebuffing every one of these P.O.S. trolls. Anyone that listens to them is not who we want anyway. They are preaching to the day traders with no long term vision.

[rpietila]

My observations:

1. The rise was with a higher volume than the corresponding fall.

Conclusion: the buyers were the suckers (short-term at least). Despite seemingly no resistance for the rise, there has been even less resistance for the fall.

2. Price is right, volume could be faked, walls can be anything.

The old wisdom is that only a trade that is registered for you, means anything. All else could be smoke and mirrors. And often is.

3. My realistic (trying to be as little wishful as possible) estimate of the short-term (30 days) bottoming:

* 30% - a new low is reached below 00091
* 40% - double bottom formed in 00100 area as a long process
* 30% - the bottom is higher (00110-00133) and then turns up (uptrend in force and this being only a Fib correction)

4. My realistic (trying not to forget the positive black swans) estimate of the medium-term (90 days) upside:

* 10% - return to the trading range of 00350 or higher
* 20% - going over 00200 and staying there
* 40% - staying above 00100
* 30% - downtrend continuing below 00100, incl coin abandoned etc. cases

We are in the high range of my year-end predictions. Cheers! 

[squid.bird]

The concept that exponential price growth somehow precedes exponential core development growth, despite their total historical disconnect, is a concept that will forever remain a mystery to me.

[av123]

My observations:

1. The rise was with a higher volume than the corresponding fall.

Conclusion: the buyers were the suckers (short-term at least). Despite seemingly no resistance for the rise, there has been even less resistance for the fall.

2. Price is right, volume could be faked, walls can be anything.

The old wisdom is that only a trade that is registered for you, means anything. All else could be smoke and mirrors. And often is.

3. My realistic (trying to be as little wishful as possible) estimate of the short-term (30 days) bottoming:

* 30% - a new low is reached below 00091
* 40% - double bottom formed in 00100 area as a long process
* 30% - the bottom is higher (00110-00133) and then turns up (uptrend in force and this being only a Fib correction)

4. My realistic (trying not to forget the positive black swans) estimate of the medium-term (90 days) upside:

* 10% - return to the trading range of 00350 or higher
* 20% - going over 00200 and staying there
* 40% - staying above 00100
* 30% - downtrend continuing below 00100, incl coin abandoned etc. cases

We are in the high range of my year-end predictions. Cheers! 

Nicely done!

[Hueristic]

The concept that exponential price growth somehow precedes exponential core development growth, despite their total historical disconnect, is a concept that will forever remain a mystery to me.

The concept of a N00b account that's first post is in a speculation thread is always a mystery to me.

WTH ever happened to the N00b main thread that was mandatory?

[squid.bird]

The concept that exponential price growth somehow precedes exponential core development growth, despite their total historical disconnect, is a concept that will forever remain a mystery to me.

The concept of a N00b account that's first post is in a speculation thread is always a mystery to me.

WTH ever happened to the N00b main thread that was mandatory?

easy now, you're scaring the locals and this isn't a witch hunt

is it really so far off base that to make the statement that it's absolutely unreasonable to expect that core development is a function of price at all?

price quadruples in a month, and it gets downright manic here.

price triples in a month and it gets borderline suicidal here, actually i've seen people go as far as writing 'rip' as if this was a game of counterstrike.

both quadrupling and tripling the price haven't accelerated core development this time nor did it have an effect last time.

so why there are people who continue to expect that core development will be able to somehow match the price growth is an absolute mystery to me.

if anything, the price growth seems as much as 90% correlated to being measured in days, centered on the sequence of: (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13), 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377 days since launch.

May 5: 13 5 days = 18, 3 days from 21, a 14% deviation
May 25: 13 25 days = 38, 4 days from 34, a 12% deviation
Jun 21: 13 31 21 days = 65, 10 days from 55, an 18% deviation
Jul 18: 13 31 30 18 days = 92, 3 days from 89, a 3% deviation
Aug 31: 13 31 30 31 31 days = 136, 8 days from 144, a 6% deviation
Dec 29:13 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 29 days = 256 days, 23 days from 233, a 10% deviation
April 1: 13 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 31 28 31 1 days = 349 days, 28 days from 377, a 7% deviation

So yea, the idea that price growth precedes development growth is a mystery to me, and the flaming that ensues after a spike during retracement periods, pertaining to 'not enough development' seem awfully audacious to me.

If anyone can make a rebuttal to the statement that "Monero price growth is more highly correlated to the above sequence than is has ever been correlated to an acceleration in core development", I'll eat all my easter candy in an hour.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The concept that exponential price growth somehow precedes exponential core development growth, despite their total historical disconnect, is a concept that will forever remain a mystery to me.

The concept of a N00b account that's first post is in a speculation thread is always a mystery to me.

WTH ever happened to the N00b main thread that was mandatory?

easy now, you're scaring the locals and this isn't a witch hunt

is it really so far off base that to make the statement that it's absolutely unreasonable to expect that core development is a function of price at all?

price quadruples in a month, and it gets downright manic here.

price triples in a month and it gets borderline suicidal here, actually i've seen people go as far as writing 'rip' as if this was a game of counterstrike.

both quadrupling and tripling the price haven't accelerated core development this time nor did it have an effect last time.

so why there are people who continue to expect that core development will be able to somehow match the price growth is an absolute mystery to me.

if anything, the price growth seems as much as 90% correlated to being measured in days, centered on the sequence of: (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13), 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377 days since launch.

May 5: 13 5 days = 18, 3 days from 21, a 14% deviation
May 25: 13 25 days = 38, 4 days from 34, a 12% deviation
Jun 21: 13 31 21 days = 65, 10 days from 55, an 18% deviation
Jul 18: 13 31 30 18 days = 92, 3 days from 89, a 3% deviation
Aug 31: 13 31 30 31 31 days = 136, 8 days from 144, a 6% deviation
Dec 29:13 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 29 days = 256 days, 23 days from 233, a 10% deviation
April 1: 13 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 31 28 31 1 days = 349 days, 28 days from 377, a 7% deviation

So yea, the idea that price growth precedes development growth is a mystery to me, and the flaming that ensues after a spike during retracement periods, pertaining to 'not enough development' seem awfully audacious to me.

If anyone can make a rebuttal to the statement that "Monero price growth is more highly correlated to the above sequence than is has ever been correlated to an acceleration in core development", I'll eat all my easter candy in an hour.

There is no direct connection between price growth and development. You are right about that.

The price is nothing more and nothing less than the intermedation of supply and demand.
Every price point, when it is stable, the supply = demand.

However, the demand has some components and one of them is the rate of development. Since Monero is pretty rookie (still despite it is 1 year old), people do not dare to demand too many Moneros. On the other hand, when the development is at higher level, there is less technical risks etc. so people dare to demand more coins.
And if there is no development what so ever, the coin is pretty useless and even the speculative demand vanishes (the coin dies).
Now the only thing that keeps Monero alive is the speculative demand. Speculators are betting that Monero will actually be useful coin in the future and they are buying it now.

[McHaggis]

Has the price officially broken the uptrend, it's hard to tell as poloniex only using 1 month or the beginning of time as the two charting options.

Also what caused the official spike down was it just FUD or something more serious, BTC usually takes news of a major exchange hack or a massive DDOS attack to spur a serious downtrend.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Has the price officially broken the uptrend, it's hard to tell as poloniex only using 1 month or the beginning of time as the two charting options.

Also what caused the official spike down was it just FUD or something more serious, BTC usually takes news of a major exchange hack or a massive DDOS attack to spur a serious downtrend.

Hello,


You asked good questions.
I think this had very little to do with news.
I think it started with profit takers exiting, then came dumpers and some whale dumped (someone in trollbox assumed Risto was dumping... I don't know - at least some at his caliber was behind the big dump - it was so massive downwards movement).

There was some fud about the anonymity, but I think nobody really cared about that. Perhaps a tiny bit was dumped as a result of FUD but nothing major was done because of it.

Monero is mid term bullish, long term bearish and short term bearish now.