[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

[1714705867]

1714705867

[BitcoinIsLiberty]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

Interesting. So BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to = completely anonymous payments using BTC?

[smooth]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

Interesting. So BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to = completely anonymous payments using BTC?

Timing-wise there are potential issues with that

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.122 BTC over a short period of time might be fairly obvious. Of course it depends not the amounts and the level of activity on BTC at the time. If BTC has 1000 tx/sec that would be a lot more obscure than currently

[GingerAle]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

Interesting. So BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to = completely anonymous payments using BTC?

Timing-wise there are potential issues with that

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.122 BTC over a short period of time might be fairly obvious. Of course it depends not the amounts and the level of activity on BTC at the time. If BTC has 1000 tx/sec that would be a lot more obscure than currently

So clearly the solution is to go 5 BTC -> XMR -> 1.22 BTC.

( XMR go.... to... alpha... centauri....)

[BitcoinIsLiberty]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

Interesting. So BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to = completely anonymous payments using BTC?

Timing-wise there are potential issues with that

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.122 BTC over a short period of time might be fairly obvious. Of course it depends not the amounts and the level of activity on BTC at the time. If BTC has 1000 tx/sec that would be a lot more obscure than currently

Hmmm, so close to being able to do BTC to BTC payments with XMR in the middle. So the easiest for mainstream users would be to use the xmr web wallet and fund it with extra then use xmr.to?

[smooth]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

Interesting. So BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to = completely anonymous payments using BTC?

Timing-wise there are potential issues with that

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.122 BTC over a short period of time might be fairly obvious. Of course it depends not the amounts and the level of activity on BTC at the time. If BTC has 1000 tx/sec that would be a lot more obscure than currently

So clearly the solution is to go 5 BTC -> XMR -> 1.22 BTC.

( XMR go.... to... alpha... centauri....)

You can't do that with BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to unless one of those services were taking a 3.78 BTC fee (not recommended to use such as service). You would need to use your own Monero wallet in between.

Also, I'm not sure what sort of mix factors and such being used by shapeshift, so the normal caveats about Monero being optionally anonymous (and not fully mature) apply. Again putting your own Monero wallet in the middle and being careful with timing could give a better result.

[cAPSLOCK]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

Interesting. So BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to = completely anonymous payments using BTC?

Timing-wise there are potential issues with that

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.122 BTC over a short period of time might be fairly obvious. Of course it depends not the amounts and the level of activity on BTC at the time. If BTC has 1000 tx/sec that would be a lot more obscure than currently

Which is why, if you want to use this mechanic rather than just hold lots of XMR you'd want to hold a small buffer amount in XMR.

Then:

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.355 BTC
.95 BTC -> XMR -> 1.11 BTC
2.11 BTC -> XMR -> 1.898 BTC

and so on...

[smooth]

332 BTC volume today on poloniex but almost no price movement. It's hard to make a case that it will go lower at this point, there is just no meaningful liquidity (25-50+btc) on the ask side without pushing the price up 15%.

Shapeshift.io just added XMR support and it looks like the database is one step closer. Development wise it looks like there are good things on the horizon.

Shapeshift announcement:

https://twitter.com/ShapeShift_io/status/585570515139563521

Pull request to merge database into master:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/pull/256

Interesting. So BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to = completely anonymous payments using BTC?

Timing-wise there are potential issues with that

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.122 BTC over a short period of time might be fairly obvious. Of course it depends not the amounts and the level of activity on BTC at the time. If BTC has 1000 tx/sec that would be a lot more obscure than currently

Which is why, if you want to use this mechanic rather than just hold lots of XMR you'd want to hold a small buffer amount in XMR.

Then:

1.123 BTC -> XMR -> 1.355 BTC
.95 BTC -> XMR -> 1.11 BTC
2.11 BTC -> XMR -> 1.898 BTC

and so on...

See my previous reply. My understanding of the original suggestion was to send BTC to shapeshift, have shapeshift send XMR to XMR.to and then XMR.to sends BTC to where you want it. That's not likely to give a high degree of privacy at this point.

[cAPSLOCK]

You can't do that with BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to unless one of those services were taking a 3.78 BTC fee (not recommended to use such as service). You would need to use your own wallet in between.

Also, I'm not sure what sort of mix factors and such being used by shapeshift, so the normal caveats about Monero being optionally anonymous (and not fully mature) apply. Again putting your own wallet in the middle and being careful with timing could give a better result.

If only there was an untraceable, unlinkable private currency which you could keep that wallet in.

[smooth]

You can't do that with BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to unless one of those services were taking a 3.78 BTC fee (not recommended to use such as service). You would need to use your own wallet in between.

Also, I'm not sure what sort of mix factors and such being used by shapeshift, so the normal caveats about Monero being optionally anonymous (and not fully mature) apply. Again putting your own wallet in the middle and being careful with timing could give a better result.

If only there was an untraceable, unlinkable private currency which you could keep that wallet in.

Edited above

[cAPSLOCK]

You can't do that with BTC -> ShapeShift XMR -> XMR.to unless one of those services were taking a 3.78 BTC fee (not recommended to use such as service). You would need to use your own wallet in between.

Also, I'm not sure what sort of mix factors and such being used by shapeshift, so the normal caveats about Monero being optionally anonymous (and not fully mature) apply. Again putting your own wallet in the middle and being careful with timing could give a better result.

If only there was an untraceable, unlinkable private currency which you could keep that wallet in.

Edited above

It's a little scary this precipice we're now sitting on.  Eventually baby birds have little choice but to risk great pain...  I am sure they never feel quite ready. 

[ImissATARI]

....

Offtopic edit: reflecting on writing this, I now realize why I scored higher for "perceiving" than "judging" on this Myers-Briggs test I just took again after someone mentioned the INTJ archetype on the other thread

ENTP here.

The visionary! I'm an INTP myself though I think the previous time I took it I was INFP, but before that INTP again too.

We all have such importance in our lives

I thought everyone on this forum was INTJ but i guess there are a few fellow INTP's

ENTP/INTP here

[GTO911]

Nobody ready to buy higher, nobody ready to sell lower. Deadlock

[cAPSLOCK]

Nobody ready to buy higher, nobody ready to sell lower. Deadlock

Good.  I would not mind seeing it hang out here for a while and build a nice concrete base.

[binaryFate]

Given the history of Monero price, I take any move sideway as positive

[medusa13]

possible we continue like this for 2-3 days, but then time is up and we have to move.
i dont think the market will wait that long until it decides what way to go, but lets see.
my guess is we go up 

[GingerAle]

Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!

(yes, its still buying with bitcoin)

BuyMonero.net

With BuyMonero.net, you get your own bot that will place a daily buy order for an amount of XMR that you specify. If no one sells to the bot in 24 hours, your bot will make a second buy order that is sure to be filled. There is a small fee for the service - currently 1% (so 1 XMR lets you buy 100 XMR on the exchange).

We made BuyMonero.net for a couple of reasons. My primary motivation was so that I wouldn't have to always login to poloniex and follow the markets to try and get a good deal on monero. The second motivation was to allow accumulators a way to buy a lot of Monero with minimal effort.

If you're interested, please checkout the website. The following forum threads are also available for general discussion and tech support.

https://forum.getmonero.org/2/economics-and-trading/258/buymonero-net-btc-cost-averaging

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1017131


As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?

[dEBRUYNE]

Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!

(yes, its still buying with bitcoin)

BuyMonero.net

With BuyMonero.net, you get your own bot that will place a daily buy order for an amount of XMR that you specify. If no one sells to the bot in 24 hours, your bot will make a second buy order that is sure to be filled. There is a small fee for the service - currently 1% (so 1 XMR lets you buy 100 XMR on the exchange).

We made BuyMonero.net for a couple of reasons. My primary motivation was so that I wouldn't have to always login to poloniex and follow the markets to try and get a good deal on monero. The second motivation was to allow accumulators a way to buy a lot of Monero with minimal effort.

If you're interested, please checkout the website. The following forum threads are also available for general discussion and tech support.

https://forum.getmonero.org/2/economics-and-trading/258/buymonero-net-btc-cost-averaging

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1017131


As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?

An army of bots will paint the chart green!

On a more serious note, this looks like a great service for people that don't have enough time on their hands to check the price the whole day and/or get frustrated by setting their bids that eventually won't get hit (and thus having to set them again). How this will influence the market? Since the buying is more gradual it could reduce the volatility, which in general is a good thing. On the opposite, it could take away some liquidity from the bid side. So in conclusion, I am not really clear in what way this could effect the market, but atleast it's a good feature for the people that want to invest/buy for the long term.

[onemorexmr]

An army of bots will paint the chart green!

On a more serious note, this looks like a great service for people that don't have enough time on their hands to check the price the whole day and/or get frustrated by setting their bids that eventually won't get hit (and thus having to set them again). How this will influence the market? Since the buying is more gradual it could reduce the volatility, which in general is a good thing. On the opposite, it could take away some liquidity from the bid side. So in conclusion, I am not really clear in what way this could effect the market, but atleast it's a good feature for the people that want to invest/buy for the long term.

i certainly hope it will help building up the bid side a little (it also places a buy-order for you below last price - only if this is not executed it will buy on your specified interval).

it is inspired by usd-cost-averaging - which made some good returns in the early btc-days.

i will continue to develop it; if you have suggestions just tell us!

[dEBRUYNE]

An army of bots will paint the chart green!

On a more serious note, this looks like a great service for people that don't have enough time on their hands to check the price the whole day and/or get frustrated by setting their bids that eventually won't get hit (and thus having to set them again). How this will influence the market? Since the buying is more gradual it could reduce the volatility, which in general is a good thing. On the opposite, it could take away some liquidity from the bid side. So in conclusion, I am not really clear in what way this could effect the market, but atleast it's a good feature for the people that want to invest/buy for the long term.

i certainly hope it will help building up the bid side a little (it also places a buy-order for you below last price - only if this is not executed it will buy on your specified interval).

it is inspired by usd-cost-averaging - which made some good returns in the early btc-days.

i will continue to develop it; if you have suggestions just tell us!

I read it a bit wrong, I thought it was always marketbuying the top asks. Anyway, now that the purpose of the bot is more clear, I think it's a good thing for the market. Let's see how this plays out.

PS: Cost-averaging is certainly a good strategy with such volatile assets like Monero. Market timing in "normal" markets is already hard, imagine trying it with Monero.