[XMR] Monero Speculation

[OrangeP]

GUI is up -

http://imgur.com/a/OeuBO

The GUI will not boost the price. Everyone already knows there will be one.

The price will rise over (long) time if Monero does not get superseded by another technology.

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[cryptimus prime]

The GUI will not boost the price. Everyone already knows there will be one.

Everybody "knows" since how long? A year or longer?  
There is a difference between having a GUI and so mass adaptation or just having it soon.

[Globb0]

It is my understanding that he went on a cruise around the world.

You'd think he'd have learned to stay away from the damn boats by now 

If its voluntary and not a rendition. 

[adolf512]

please stop attributing these dumps to a single entity, it serves no purpose. it is not the dumper/bearwhale/nr-g that is driving the price down solo. the market is heavily manipulated yes, but that is the result of having a totally unregulated free market with low liquidity.

I did the mistake of shorting at low price again, i noticed very poor buy-support but still i shouldn't have done it. But i hope the trend continue now. I am really a horrible trader and i am starting to hate myself more and more. I keep losing money day-trading now. I noticed low buy-support and switch from margin-buy to short.

The current high is still less than the previous, will this trend continue?

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think it is very important to calm down people who are buying Moneros.
I've talked some people about Monero and they all seem to love it and thinking "I need to go all-in XMR".
We as early adopters have the moral responsibility to tell the (legitimate, not NRG's alter egos) newbies not to buy too many Moneros, only the amount they can afford to lose. If someone can afford to lose everything, then I guess all-in is the optimal strategy.
I hope people will listen to my advice.  

[saddambitcoin]

I think it is very important to calm down people who are buying Moneros.
I've talked some people about Monero and they all seem to love it and thinking "I need to go all-in XMR".
We as early adopters have the moral responsibility to tell the (legitimate, not NRG's alter egos) newbies not to buy too many Moneros, only the amount they can afford to lose. If someone can afford to lose everything, then I guess all-in is the optimal strategy.
I hope people will listen to my advice.  

Yes, it is best to use caution and average your buys in over a longer period of time. Think months, not days. If the price goes down, you get more XMR. If it goes up, then of course you don't have as many XMR if you went all-in, but nobody trades perfectly.

More importantly, if you buy a lot, just ask yourself "am i prepared to hold this indefinitely if the price drops 50% or even more?". If that idea makes you uncomfortable, buy less. You don't even have to believe this will be the outcome, but it is best to mentally prepare for all options.

The option I have difficulty preparing for is the selling part. Holding is easy.

[obit33]

The option I have difficulty preparing for is the selling part. Holding is easy.

Same here, atm I have not considered any strategy whatsoever... The only thing I know for sure is that I won't sell any of my cold stash before xmr hits $100 (let's hope this ever happens btw). After that, I just don't know when/what/why I will sell...

[N-rG]

I think it is very important to calm down people who are buying Moneros.

Problem started

I've talked some people about Monero and they all seem to love it and thinking "I need to go all-in XMR".

Never ending story. The people you are talking to are not real. The conversations were never happening.

If someone can afford to lose everything, then I guess all-in is the optimal strategy.
I hope people will listen to my advice.  

That's exactly the crazy Trueblabla stuff why people are not and will never following you. Beside the fact that you was anyway always 100% wrong in your fanboy appraisals.



That did must hurt so much. But you didnt learn your lesson since you are buying since 0.02x downwards

[Mike8]

The option I have difficulty preparing for is the selling part. Holding is easy.

Holding is easy. Buying more is not that easy today. And it may be even more difficult tomorrow.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think it is very important to calm down people who are buying Moneros.
I've talked some people about Monero and they all seem to love it and thinking "I need to go all-in XMR".
We as early adopters have the moral responsibility to tell the (legitimate, not NRG's alter egos) newbies not to buy too many Moneros, only the amount they can afford to lose. If someone can afford to lose everything, then I guess all-in is the optimal strategy.
I hope people will listen to my advice.  

Yes, it is best to use caution and average your buys in over a longer period of time. Think months, not days. If the price goes down, you get more XMR. If it goes up, then of course you don't have as many XMR if you went all-in, but nobody trades perfectly.

More importantly, if you buy a lot, just ask yourself "am i prepared to hold this indefinitely if the price drops 50% or even more?". If that idea makes you uncomfortable, buy less. You don't even have to believe this will be the outcome, but it is best to mentally prepare for all options.

The option I have difficulty preparing for is the selling part. Holding is easy.

I made the exact mistake in buying way too many coins in summer 2014, however it was our good luck that bitcoin went down in terms of fiat in the same time Monero went dramatically down in terms of bitcoin and it was possible to buy Moneros sub 50 cents for a long time. My story is a good warning example of how not to act I guess. 
As long as crypto is a hobby of relatively small community the volatility is drastic and apparently even drops like 70 % are possible (like we saw with Monero from 0.0265 to the current levels and below). Once the community grows there will be more takers to the dumps and the price fluctuations are smaller, but also the price is higher.

[adolf512]

Sometimes holding is a very good thing and sometimes it is very bad, the problem is that most of of tend to to the exact opposite of what we should(buy high and sell low), i have made a lot of stupid decisions for sure.

I have a feeling the xmr-price can go either way now, we could see a recovery or the price crashing down far below 0.007, the price has been on a downtrend for very long now. I though i would improve with time but instead i only do worse with time.

I really hate myself over my recent trades, i ruined everything. Switched my positions from positive to negative due to low buy-support but a huge pump/correction occured. I wish i had cut my losses and reversed the position again.

[CryptoPH]

I invested a "not so big amount" in Monero in 2015, when it is at less than $1.
Then I did Zero-Cost Averaging, which means withdrew all my initial capital and leave the rest as investment.
I am still holding some and plan to let it grow for long term.

[KeyJockey]

The option I have difficulty preparing for is the selling part. Holding is easy.

Risto's "SSS" strategy for dealing with bitcoin is IMHO the best approach to dealing with this.

I keep this solidly in mind for my BITCOIN holdings, but unfortunately not yet having achieved even the first double-in-value on my bitcoin, I can't yet put it into practice.  Maybe, some day... soon?  One can hope... LOL

And actually, however, I have not even personally yet taken this strategy with my MONERO stash... just because it's still small enough (sadly) that I've felt a little more like "gambling" with the first few doublings in value.  (I have taken just the small dollar-value equivalent of my starting buy-in off the table, so 100% is now "house money" for FREE, which removes a TON of the worry about *if* XMR might totally crash to zero?  Easy come, easy go LOL).

Honestly I was CLOSE to taking the first "SSS" selling step, liquidating the first 10% chunk, way back - about a month ago (LOL) - when we were hitting $15... if it'd gotten to $20 I would've done it for sure, LOL but unfortunately I hesitated (probably just due to pure greed LOL) and now here we are back dancing with "only" $5 or $6 price point.

So... oh, well.  Live and learn, and now just gonna HODL again 'till we get back to $15.  Or $20.  Or maybe $50-$100  

P.S. {Edit} Should've included a link to the "SSS Plan" thread... Risto's "Sane And Simple Savings Plan"  Here it is:

----->        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0;all

[Febo]

There is so much to come for XMR : Trezor, Jaxx, paybee out of beta some day all we need to do is be patient

But you will not get XMR under $10 at that point in time.

Sometimes holding is a very good thing and sometimes it is very bad, ...

When you hold you cant lose anything. You have 100 XMR and no matter what happens you still have 100 XMR. If you have tradings skils, yes you can make 200 XMR out of it, but there is quite huge chance you will end up with only 50 XMR.

[adolf512]

When you hold you cant lose anything. You have 100 XMR and no matter what happens you still have 100 XMR. If you have tradings skils, yes you can make 200 XMR out of it, but there is quite huge chance you will end up with only 50 XMR.

I wish i had settled with 602 xmr but i did continue to gamble and lost big, i probably lost 1.5 BTC in total, a real disaster.

[Maslate]

The option I have difficulty preparing for is the selling part. Holding is easy.

Holding is easy. Buying more is not that easy today. And it may be even more difficult tomorrow.

I guess it is good to gamble with the price of monero now, if the price will crash more, we will not be losing more and this will be stable at this level time will come maybe that it will start to rise again, actually buying is more preferable now as this coin will never die.

[antw081]

The option I have difficulty preparing for is the selling part. Holding is easy.

I know right! Just can't bring myself to selling any Monero.

Price goes down, I want more Monero. Price goes up, I still want more Monero.

[bitebits]

How high do you guys think the price will go when the GUI is out?

Short term? No difference, maybe some speculation / bull traps.

Longer term it helps adoption because it lowers the threshold to actual usage for new users. That adds real value. It still is for the more technical crowd who knows how to run a daemon / has the patience to download the whole blockchain. Easy to use mobile apps make the real difference if you ask me, like Bitcoin Breadwallet for the iPhone for example.

[TrueCryptonaire]

How high do you guys think the price will go when the GUI is out?

Short term? No difference, maybe some speculation / bull traps.

Longer term it helps adoption because it lowers the threshold to actual usage for new users. That adds real value. It still is for the more technical crowd who knows how to run a daemon / has the patience to download the whole blockchain. Easy to use mobile apps make the real difference if you ask me, like Bitcoin Breadwallet for the iPhone for example.

Thank you for your insight.
I tend to agree, GUI was kind of expected.
So what do you think should there be some kind of marketing taking place? After all, the core idea of marketing is to give information about product or service to newbies.
Perhaps some vloggers getting paid by introducing Monero to new audience? After all, the new users will not just appear here.

[bitebits]

I tend to agree, GUI was kind of expected.
So what do you think should there be some kind of marketing taking place?

Personally Monero works just fine for me. Privately paying for my VPS, ordering a pizza, donating to Wikipedia, etc.
It's already awesome as it is today, imagine.