[XMR] Monero Speculation

[binaryFate]

So there are rumours of CKG going to an exchange in the future. Pretty sure it would have a frenzy effect on XMR too if it happens.

[aminorex]

many early btc adopters have a big stake in LTC seeing it as the silver to gold

If that were true, XMR would be platinum.

[dEBRUYNE]

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions  

OK Here is me gone wild - same thing I suggested for a POC coin:

DEVS will start a crowd funding project on Max Keiser's http://startjoin.com to get some much needed development cash and then one or more of the team will be interviewed by Max on his RT.com show: The Keiser Report. Then Monero to the moon.

This is actually a good idea!

So there are rumours of CKG going to an exchange in the future. Pretty sure it would have a frenzy effect on XMR too if it happens.

What is CKG?

Crypto Kingdom Gold. Crypto Kingdom is a game that uses XMR as its base currency. More info can be found here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0

[dEBRUYNE]

The MEW voted against an emission change:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg9926958#msg9926958

Even though the MEW votes are non-binding for the core team, you may appreciate that so far, votes are unanimously against changing the emission curve.
The total number of voices in MEW is presently 7627
A total of 4070 voices have already been given to option 1 - no change. This is 53% of possible voices, so even in the highly unlikely case that all remaining voices went to option #2, option #1 would stll be selected because it already have absolute majority. The vote is still ongoing, since I wrote that it closes on the 31st of December, but this is mostly symbolic.

So, this is official: MEW asks for the emission curve not to be changed.

And since the core team already thinks the same way, I can safely announce that:

Monero emission curve will not change.

MEW locuta, quaestio soluta

EDIT: I would like to add that currently no one has voted in favour of an emission change. All the members that voted, voted in favour of keeping the current emission.

[dEBRUYNE]

many early btc adopters have a big stake in LTC seeing it as the silver to gold

If that were true, XMR would be platinum.

Maybe many was a bit of an overstatement, but atleast some of them.

[jehst]

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions  

Your bitcoin predictions are depressing. $600/btc in 2015?

[dEBRUYNE]

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions  

Your bitcoin predictions are depressing. $600/btc in 2015?

I could see us going a year sideways at that target, just like what happened in 2012. I think our big boom will be in 2016, when the block reward halves as well.

[Hueristic]

...

nevertheless it has the most unique feature in the entire cryptospehere - it combines neutrality, privacy and decentralisation and probably being the first mover here.

I would add probably the best DEV team in the scene.

...

Also, I found this recent article about LTC somewhat interesting: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/litecoin-creator-charlie-lee-claims-litecoin-not-need-development-says-adding-gimmicks-not-help-currency-succeed/

Another nail in LTC's coffin.

It would require extensive modifications, and not really be the same code base anymore in a useful sense. Also, he never volunteered to do that (even for pay), he simply decided to go take other work that didn't have a learning curve.

It looks like "mixcoin" wanted to do ring signatures on the satoshi codebase but the project was abandoned.

https://cryptocointalk.com/topic/13012-pre-ann-mixcoin-mix-1st-satoshi-cryptonote-true-anontech/

Probably not as easy as "Just graft it on, bro."

I think SDC is trying that as well.

[ArticMine]

I just fulfilled my dream to reach a specific percentage of the current bitcoin supply, it took me just a little more than a year.
My next goal is to accumulate 0,1% of the current monero supply. For that, i will buy daily for 12$(that is everything i can afford  ). It's not much, and all you whales will make fun of me, but it adds up over time and I still really like the coin and the people who are involved in it. (and obviously the conversations in this topic)

Overall I think the current price is a great long term opportunity. Especially if you keep in mind the slowing inflation, the future development milestones and the need for anonymity.

First congratulations on meeting your XBT goal. Dollar cost averaging XMR in this fashion is a very good strategy since the short term volatility works very much in your favour. I really like the daily cost averaging. It is also obvious that you have done your homework here, the timing of this post gives that away.  As for whales making fun of you because of the cost averaging amount, I very much doubt it, what is far more likely however is that you become a whale. Many whales got started with small amounts and not just in crypto-currency.

[rangedriver]

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions  

OK Here is me gone wild - same thing I suggested for a POC coin:

DEVS will start a crowd funding project on Max Keiser's http://startjoin.com to get some much needed development cash and then one or more of the team will be interviewed by Max on his RT.com show: The Keiser Report. Then Monero to the moon.

It actually amazes me devs of any coin haven't done this yet - I've been saying this for the past year.

Sooner or later a coin is gonna figure this simple strategy out. Too bad I can't code.

[coinits]

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions  

OK Here is me gone wild - same thing I suggested for a POC coin:

DEVS will start a crowd funding project on Max Keiser's http://startjoin.com to get some much needed development cash and then one or more of the team will be interviewed by Max on his RT.com show: The Keiser Report. Then Monero to the moon.

It actually amazes me devs of any coin haven't done this yet - I've been saying this for the past year.

Sooner or later a coin is gonna figure this simple strategy out. Too bad I can't code.

Yeah and the beauty is that the funding can pay for the trinkets, such as t-shirts, coffee mugs. Costs nothing and everything to gain. Perhaps a a few days lodging in the castle for the super donators, if you know who would agree.

[aminorex]

This is by far the largest 1 week gain (as %) since the FUD storm era.  Anyone who bought below 001 and does not want to hold for the long run should probably sell now.  Preferably, to me.

[G2M]

Happy I got everything back, and then some, in time

Speculation: We're worth at least one single block of bitcoin (as ten minutes) per day at this point in time. That's technically .694% of all the hopes and dreams going into cryptocurrencies every day, relative only to those toward bitcoin.

Let's see where it goes.

[Peter Todd]

It means it would be so extensively modified to be almost unrecognizable by the time you were done.

Monero was just not a good fit for the type of work Peter wanted to do, which was to focus on working on coins that all use the same code base so his existing knowledge of the code would be valuable and provide synergies for him between projects. That's exactly what he told us.

+1

Each project you get yourself involved with is a significant mental overhead, especially when what the codebase is doing is similar, but not 100% identical, to other codebases you work on. Even on Bitcoin itself I specialize on one specific aspect of it, the consensus critical code, and within that, the scripting system.

[Bassica]

It means it would be so extensively modified to be almost unrecognizable by the time you were done.

Monero was just not a good fit for the type of work Peter wanted to do, which was to focus on working on coins that all use the same code base so his existing knowledge of the code would be valuable and provide synergies for him between projects. That's exactly what he told us.

+1

Each project you get yourself involved with is a significant mental overhead, especially when what the codebase is doing is similar, but not 100% identical, to other codebases you work on. Even on Bitcoin itself I specialize on one specific aspect of it, the consensus critical code, and within that, the scripting system.

Yeah, I understand, makes sense.

I (falsely) interpreteded that twitter message with a certain undertone. In a lot of (corporate/official) communication if something like that is said, you can bet there was a conflict of some sort. Glad to hear it was more nuanced

Maybe in time this community/project proves to be worth the investment of getting up to speed with the different codebase. Would be awesome to have a bitcoin-hero with a legacy like you on board.

[Bassica]

many early btc adopters have a big stake in LTC seeing it as the silver to gold

If that were true, XMR would be platinum.

I like this one as a marketing gimmick Would we be the first coin to claim this?

2015 price target 2-3 usd/xmr with minirallies to 6-7$ (0.003-0.005 vs 600 btc/$)
2016 price target 5-15 usd/xmr (0.005-0.015 vs 1000 btc/$)
2017 price target 35-65 usd/xmr (0.015-0.025 vs 2500 btc/$)
2018 price target 125-375 usd/xmr (0.025-0.075 vs 5000 btc/$
2019 price target 750-1000 usd/xmr (0.075-0.1 vs 10000 btc/$)
2020 price target 0 successful government crackdown using a supersecret quantum computer obfuscating ring sigs.

Because 2014 is almost over, let's do some wild predictions  

Your bitcoin predictions are depressing. $600/btc in 2015?

Well first of all, it's only simplistic speculation (don't only fools do that? ). So many factors in play it's nearly impossible to make a educated guess. Having said that, I think (as was discussed above) that there's this gradual shift from pure speculation to adoption/usability. The VC-funding and the many entrepeneurs in the ecosphere play a big role here, but also the current users being ambassadors. If we can 'up' our base from ~100 in 2013, ~300 2014 to ~600 in 2015 I'd say we've done quite (extremely!) well. This doesn't mean permanent sideways action in this region, it'll probably be with spikes and valleys since this is bitcoin. Fixed supply vs fluctuating demand. Maybe a rally to 800 and some lows in the 300-400. Think what it'll do to the image as well. Leaving the infancy-period and getting a bit more stable price-wise with the years passing. Then if BTC will go into it's adolescence period we'll see growth spurts. 

This is by far the largest 1 week gain (as %) since the FUD storm era.  Anyone who bought below 001 and does not want to hold for the long run should probably sell now.  Preferably, to me.

On a tear...  0.0013
Fairly pleased with my doubling down @ .0010x range now, though the dip to 0.00091 had me a bit shocked immediately after    If I was a trader I might even take some profits here.  So far though, I haven't figured out how to sell, only buy.   

It is possible to sell?!

I guess poloniex disabled that feature for me in these regions..

[Bassica]

Someone was happy with the voting results I guess. Solid walls. 60btc @ 0.0012 en 40btc @ 0.00114

[aminorex]

I am guessing the uptrend is due to insider buying on an upcoming event, perhaps DB+GUI release, or a Crypto-Kingdom development.

Alternatively, we have new accumulator(s).

I would  prefer the former, as the latter is less predictable and implies more competition for coins.

[SmoothCurves]

Any guesses on what we can expect the XMR price to be circa the next BTC block reward halving in July 2016? Mine is around $80USD per XMR

[Hueristic]

Still waiting on BTC to drop below 300 but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. I better grab some before the price rebounds. wish me luck on the poker tables, the amount I buy depends on my winnings or losses. LOL Down 1800 right now.