RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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May 02, 2013, 07:17:15 AM |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means. Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc? If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less?
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.
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May 02, 2013, 10:06:46 AM |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means. Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc? If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less? Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up. Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well.
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jking
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May 02, 2013, 01:14:23 PM |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means. Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc? If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less? Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up. Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well. Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751
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organofcorti
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Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
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May 02, 2013, 02:26:35 PM |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means. Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc? If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less? Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up. Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well. Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751How do you mean?
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jking
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May 02, 2013, 04:39:37 PM |
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Thanks! I see it now too. Very sharp eye you have. I also cannot explain this sudden drop in amounts of bets placed. Could it be a whale dropping out? Are there any other possible explanations?
This might not be the reason for the sudden decrease in bets, however minimum bet size is limited so smaller bettors will must reduce the number of bets if they are to bet within their means. Isn't minimum bet already very low? Something around 0.01 btc? If yes, then is it not more likely that gamblers just reduce the amount of btc they bet, instead of playing less? Not if they like to feel like they're just playing a game, maybe? Bettors might not miss a few cents here and there, but bets of a dollar each soon stack up. Also, don't forget that when the exchange rate rockets, lots of people will tend to hoard while they wait for the exchange rate will level. This might reduce not just the amount they spend, but reduce spending events as well. Do you think declining # of bets might have something to do with this too? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.msg1632751#msg1632751How do you mean? Well, I was just hunting for events that happened around mid March 2013 that correlated with the decline in transactions. The fork was on March 11, but I don't think that explains it. The comment by dooglus would seem to indicate another event occurred around this time -- a change in the betting structure. Maybe this change explains the decline in # of transactions? I don't really know what it implies and defer to you guys on this. I don't know much about SatoshiDice... just curious.
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BTCdude007
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May 02, 2013, 05:08:16 PM |
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Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...
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DeaDTerra
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May 02, 2013, 06:21:45 PM |
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Didn't SD start requiring 1 confirmation? Maybe that caused the betting dropoff as the fun was in knowing (almost) instantaneously whether you won or not...
The exact way the double spend protection system works is secret. For bets above a certain amount and within certain variables 1 confirmation is needed, but for most transaction 0 confirmation should be fine. //DeaDTerra
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dooglus
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May 02, 2013, 07:34:37 PM |
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Total of 33 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-May-02 12:33pm (up to block 234232)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 137272 | 3 (0.00002) | 135071 | 2198 | 1733.01 | 3843.14 | 161.57 | -2110.13 | 221.761 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12607 | 0 (0.00000) | 12040 | 567 | 172.37 | 0.45 | 22.84 | 171.91 | 0.262 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 14044 | 2 (0.00015) | 13545 | 497 | 195.12 | 320.30 | 17.49 | -125.18 | 164.157 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25250 | 5 (0.00020) | 24718 | 527 | 603.36 | 433.87 | 13.37 | 169.49 | 71.909 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24463 | 5 (0.00021) | 23974 | 484 | 866.97 | 606.56 | 22.19 | 260.40 | 69.964 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30293 | 13 (0.00044) | 29838 | 442 | 1661.82 | 1830.93 | 1.53 | -169.10 | 110.176 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30783 | 35 (0.00116) | 30227 | 521 | 2190.08 | 1740.41 | 116.99 | 449.66 | 79.468 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22134 | 41 (0.00190) | 21578 | 515 | 2418.40 | 1578.09 | 48.56 | 840.30 | 65.254 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27229 | 116 (0.00433) | 26694 | 419 | 6072.36 | 8661.99 | 13.29 | -2589.63 | 142.646 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39634 | 311 (0.00801) | 38539 | 784 | 8455.39 | 6948.00 | 10.31 | 1507.38 | 82.173 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 148245 | 2287 (0.01549) | 145314 | 644 | 42999.28 | 37323.70 | 2.54 | 5675.58 | 86.801 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26736 | 609 (0.02312) | 25733 | 394 | 7998.64 | 8589.34 | 15.21 | -590.69 | 107.385 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 95797 | 2940 (0.03083) | 92431 | 426 | 43532.35 | 38773.83 | 9.47 | 4758.51 | 89.069 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31756 | 1445 (0.04624) | 29806 | 505 | 9875.41 | 10670.13 | 25.45 | -794.71 | 108.047 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39316 | 2404 (0.06180) | 36495 | 417 | 7880.47 | 7676.58 | 31.44 | 203.89 | 97.413 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 56178 | 5092 (0.09152) | 50545 | 541 | 17146.72 | 18683.02 | 7.63 | -1536.29 | 108.960 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 213802 | 26177 (0.12279) | 187008 | 617 | 101064.96 | 100371.63 | 100.94 | 693.33 | 99.314 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 123033 | 22446 (0.18341) | 99933 | 654 | 179881.52 | 181454.68 | 3315.33 | -1573.16 | 100.875 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 296256 | 72090 (0.24395) | 223427 | 739 | 379868.41 | 366069.19 | 2323.08 | 13799.21 | 96.367 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 289578 | 106144 (0.36742) | 182748 | 686 | 595944.34 | 587173.27 | 1013.65 | 8771.07 | 98.528 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1231675 | 600196 (0.48807) | 629530 | 1949 | 918380.85 | 900219.55 | 2926.15 | 18161.30 | 98.022 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 704581 | 351180 (0.49959) | 351759 | 1642 | 699377.62 | 681500.47 | 6523.18 | 17877.14 | 97.444 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 409059 | 299986 (0.73499) | 108165 | 908 | 312074.88 | 304634.06 | 6172.90 | 7440.82 | 97.616 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 93666 | 73859 (0.79423) | 19135 | 672 | 66015.54 | 64476.70 | 1188.07 | 1538.84 | 97.669 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 87625 | 74478 (0.85740) | 12387 | 760 | 83658.82 | 82885.78 | 401.21 | 773.04 | 99.076 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 137292 | 124936 (0.91584) | 11481 | 875 | 77915.62 | 76764.90 | 1.91 | 1150.72 | 98.523 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22685 | 20504 (0.97866) | 447 | 1734 | 25107.19 | 24686.16 | 241.16 | 421.03 | 98.323 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4247773 | 1731777 | 2495173 | 20823 | 848919.12 | 834064.80 | 321.40 | 14854.31 | 98.250 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123216 | 55527 | 67395 | 294 | 2744172.50 | 2683852.04 | 24406.21 | 60320.45 | 97.802 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4370989 | 1787304 | 2562568 | 21117 | 3593091.63 | 3517916.85 | 24727.61 | 75174.77 | 97.908 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 75174.77270254 BTC (2.092%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3601.71957500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 71573.05312754 BTC (1.992%) Pending Liabilities: 0.04513489 BTC Final SD Profit: 71573.00799265 BTC (1.992%) Profit This Month: -30.40035197 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 14217696 : SatoshiDice Tx: 8009669 (56.3%) Blockchain MB: 6222.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 3306.5 (53.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FsNxjxlN.png&t=665&c=LJ10FZLCLEHpLA) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4ITfuwf.png&t=665&c=AjdaJYxBHSHy6w)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dance4x
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May 02, 2013, 08:33:56 PM |
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I am trying to figure out what the dividend should be for April, but I am running into different numbers in different places. The Google Docs spreadsheet says the profits for shareholders for April was 466.8455515763, but the MPEX website says total dividends of 1`795.55981337 will be paid. What factor am I missing here and where does that 1`795.55981337 number come from?
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FTWbitcoinFTW
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May 02, 2013, 09:03:32 PM |
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13% of total april profit = 466BTC to public shareholders 37% of total april profit = 1329BTC to john doe the mysterious
Total paid on MPEX by S.dice = 1795BTC
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Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone. it has lots of buttery taste..
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dooglus
Legendary
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May 03, 2013, 06:51:18 PM |
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Total of 118 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-May-03 11:46am (up to block 234372)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 137903 | 3 (0.00002) | 135655 | 2245 | 1741.97 | 3843.19 | 164.62 | -2101.21 | 220.623 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12629 | 0 (0.00000) | 12062 | 567 | 172.61 | 0.45 | 22.84 | 172.15 | 0.262 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 14058 | 2 (0.00015) | 13559 | 497 | 195.42 | 320.30 | 17.49 | -124.88 | 163.906 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25273 | 5 (0.00020) | 24740 | 528 | 603.80 | 433.87 | 14.62 | 169.93 | 71.856 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24481 | 5 (0.00021) | 23992 | 484 | 867.55 | 606.57 | 22.19 | 260.98 | 69.917 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30344 | 13 (0.00043) | 29887 | 444 | 1662.56 | 1830.93 | 1.55 | -168.37 | 110.127 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30813 | 35 (0.00116) | 30255 | 523 | 2190.94 | 1740.41 | 116.99 | 450.52 | 79.437 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22179 | 41 (0.00189) | 21623 | 515 | 2419.99 | 1578.10 | 48.56 | 841.89 | 65.211 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27243 | 116 (0.00432) | 26708 | 419 | 6074.08 | 8662.00 | 13.29 | -2587.92 | 142.606 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39728 | 312 (0.00801) | 38632 | 784 | 8456.54 | 6949.26 | 10.31 | 1507.28 | 82.176 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 149403 | 2301 (0.01547) | 146456 | 646 | 43049.98 | 37362.97 | 2.55 | 5687.01 | 86.790 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26761 | 611 (0.02317) | 25756 | 394 | 7999.08 | 8590.20 | 15.21 | -591.11 | 107.390 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 96219 | 2957 (0.03087) | 92836 | 426 | 43555.01 | 38808.36 | 9.47 | 4746.64 | 89.102 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31806 | 1451 (0.04636) | 29850 | 505 | 9876.30 | 10672.80 | 25.45 | -796.50 | 108.065 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39416 | 2413 (0.06187) | 36586 | 417 | 7938.14 | 7869.23 | 31.44 | 68.90 | 99.132 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 56295 | 5101 (0.09149) | 50651 | 543 | 17151.03 | 18687.25 | 7.64 | -1536.21 | 108.957 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 215879 | 26424 (0.12275) | 188835 | 620 | 101209.90 | 100503.38 | 100.97 | 706.52 | 99.302 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 123398 | 22521 (0.18348) | 100223 | 654 | 179907.72 | 181490.91 | 3315.33 | -1583.18 | 100.880 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 297065 | 72301 (0.24399) | 224024 | 740 | 379924.22 | 366148.67 | 2323.08 | 13775.55 | 96.374 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 290158 | 106358 (0.36742) | 183113 | 687 | 596080.49 | 587323.11 | 1013.65 | 8757.38 | 98.531 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1235277 | 601931 (0.48806) | 631389 | 1957 | 918845.33 | 900710.87 | 2926.19 | 18134.46 | 98.026 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 706831 | 352304 (0.49959) | 352878 | 1649 | 700018.66 | 682213.98 | 6523.22 | 17804.68 | 97.457 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 410103 | 300728 (0.73493) | 108464 | 911 | 312185.80 | 304733.24 | 6172.92 | 7452.55 | 97.613 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 93933 | 74059 (0.79413) | 19199 | 675 | 66059.08 | 64524.95 | 1188.08 | 1534.13 | 97.678 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 87845 | 74655 (0.85729) | 12428 | 762 | 83698.03 | 82925.80 | 401.22 | 772.23 | 99.077 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 137743 | 125340 (0.91583) | 11519 | 884 | 77983.23 | 76831.73 | 1.96 | 1151.50 | 98.523 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22764 | 20571 (0.97855) | 451 | 1742 | 25116.01 | 24694.96 | 241.17 | 421.04 | 98.324 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4262264 | 1736992 | 2504348 | 20924 | 850330.97 | 835566.68 | 325.92 | 14764.29 | 98.264 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123283 | 55566 | 67423 | 294 | 2744652.64 | 2684490.92 | 24406.21 | 60161.71 | 97.808 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4385547 | 1792558 | 2571771 | 21218 | 3594983.62 | 3520057.61 | 24732.13 | 74926.01 | 97.916 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 74926.01183211 BTC (2.084%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3617.00717500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 71309.00465711 BTC (1.984%) Pending Liabilities: 2.57068290 BTC Final SD Profit: 71306.43397421 BTC (1.983%) Profit This Month: -296.97437041 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 14271041 : SatoshiDice Tx: 8036621 (56.3%) Blockchain MB: 6247.1 : SatoshiDice MB: 3317.6 (53.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FeywdB8S.png&t=665&c=4XsJCpEL0AfTUg) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdDbRHea.png&t=665&c=BrqYWjk7kudMFA)
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Korbman
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May 03, 2013, 07:24:13 PM |
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Stop the madness!
Technically we're still well above the expected 1.9% edge, and not to mention December through February were fantastic months financially. At some point math will win and we'll dip down to match what's expected.
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scrybe
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May 05, 2013, 06:12:28 PM |
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Stop the madness!
Technically we're still well above the expected 1.9% edge, and not to mention December through February were fantastic months financially. At some point math will win and we'll dip down to match what's expected. I was told (by someone who apparently had a LOT more statistics knowledge than me) that this is a common misconception. IIRC once a random-walk "wanders off" the expected line it is likely to parallel the original curve IF luck remained 100% consistent. Of course it will not, so there will be both upward and downward random influences, but there is supposedly "no particular reason" for the real data to "seek out" the original curve and stick to it. This was from a discussion on Martingale techniques where it was pointed out that the number of losses in a row were independent from each other and therefore much longer streaks than expected could happen (to the win or to the loss side of the ledger.) Because of this discussion I don't really expect this to "correct" back to the line either, but again IANAS (...Statistician)
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"...as simple as possible, but no simpler" -AE BTC/TRC/FRC: 1ScrybeSNcjqgpPeYNgvdxANArqoC6i5u Ripple:rf9gutfmGB8CH39W2PCeRbLWMKRauYyVfx LTC:LadmiD6tXq7gFZvMibhFUZegUHKXgbu1Gb
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dooglus
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May 05, 2013, 08:22:17 PM |
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I was told (by someone who apparently had a LOT more statistics knowledge than me) that this is a common misconception.
That's right. The actual profit line doesn't feel any need to get closer to the expected profit line. But, being 1000 BTC above the line when the expected profit is 10k means it's 10% higher than it 'should be', but later, when it's 1000 BTC above the expected profit of 100k it's only 1% higher than it should be. So in that sense it tends to get closer to the expected value. The 1000 BTC gap will remain, on average, but it will become less significant as profits increase. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 06, 2013, 12:02:20 AM |
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Total of 55 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-May-05 02:55pm (up to block 234700)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 139424 | 3 (0.00002) | 137111 | 2310 | 1763.01 | 3843.29 | 168.33 | -2080.28 | 217.996 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12682 | 0 (0.00000) | 12105 | 577 | 173.71 | 0.45 | 27.14 | 173.25 | 0.264 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 14181 | 2 (0.00015) | 13682 | 497 | 201.36 | 320.33 | 17.49 | -118.97 | 159.085 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25335 | 5 (0.00020) | 24797 | 533 | 609.79 | 433.90 | 14.62 | 175.89 | 71.156 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24583 | 5 (0.00021) | 24093 | 485 | 875.01 | 606.60 | 22.19 | 268.40 | 69.325 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30522 | 13 (0.00043) | 30063 | 446 | 1665.54 | 1830.95 | 1.56 | -165.40 | 109.931 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30921 | 35 (0.00115) | 30363 | 523 | 2195.21 | 1740.44 | 116.99 | 454.77 | 79.283 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22294 | 41 (0.00188) | 21738 | 515 | 2422.13 | 1578.11 | 48.56 | 844.01 | 65.154 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27287 | 116 (0.00432) | 26750 | 421 | 6076.66 | 8662.02 | 13.30 | -2585.35 | 142.546 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39847 | 313 (0.00801) | 38750 | 784 | 8461.37 | 6950.53 | 10.31 | 1510.84 | 82.144 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 152348 | 2349 (0.01548) | 149349 | 650 | 43163.07 | 37510.08 | 2.56 | 5652.99 | 86.903 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26864 | 617 (0.02331) | 25853 | 394 | 8006.79 | 8613.69 | 15.21 | -606.89 | 107.580 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 97329 | 2991 (0.03087) | 93910 | 428 | 43606.57 | 38871.73 | 9.48 | 4734.84 | 89.142 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31895 | 1458 (0.04645) | 29932 | 505 | 9889.34 | 10685.23 | 25.45 | -795.89 | 108.048 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39524 | 2424 (0.06198) | 36683 | 417 | 7954.91 | 7896.76 | 31.44 | 58.15 | 99.269 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 56539 | 5120 (0.09144) | 50875 | 544 | 17168.84 | 18707.44 | 7.64 | -1538.59 | 108.962 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 218637 | 26780 (0.12284) | 191234 | 623 | 101332.17 | 100600.98 | 101.00 | 731.18 | 99.278 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 124195 | 22667 (0.18348) | 100870 | 658 | 180103.57 | 181534.40 | 3315.34 | -1430.82 | 100.794 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 299348 | 72868 (0.24403) | 225737 | 743 | 380130.10 | 366358.65 | 2323.09 | 13771.44 | 96.377 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 291861 | 107002 (0.36749) | 184167 | 692 | 596213.82 | 587472.13 | 1013.67 | 8741.69 | 98.534 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1242354 | 605377 (0.48806) | 634997 | 1980 | 920155.74 | 901998.28 | 2926.28 | 18157.46 | 98.027 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 713084 | 355477 (0.49968) | 355937 | 1670 | 702421.70 | 684987.68 | 6523.31 | 17434.01 | 97.518 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 412662 | 302574 (0.73487) | 109166 | 922 | 312819.31 | 305442.92 | 6172.95 | 7376.39 | 97.642 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 94306 | 74345 (0.79411) | 19276 | 685 | 66116.77 | 64589.32 | 1188.12 | 1527.45 | 97.690 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 88453 | 75173 (0.85730) | 12513 | 767 | 83795.58 | 83027.30 | 401.23 | 768.27 | 99.083 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 139157 | 126613 (0.91579) | 11643 | 901 | 78156.37 | 76993.48 | 2.04 | 1162.89 | 98.512 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22875 | 20658 (0.97831) | 458 | 1759 | 25134.47 | 24712.16 | 241.20 | 422.31 | 98.320 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4295067 | 1749371 | 2524561 | 21135 | 853272.37 | 838460.58 | 334.44 | 14811.79 | 98.264 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123440 | 55655 | 67491 | 294 | 2747340.68 | 2687508.37 | 24406.21 | 59832.30 | 97.822 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4418507 | 1805026 | 2592052 | 21429 | 3600613.05 | 3525968.95 | 24740.65 | 74644.09 | 97.927 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 74644.09877505 BTC (2.073%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3651.60777500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 70992.49100005 BTC (1.972%) Pending Liabilities: -12.39521804 BTC Final SD Profit: 71004.88621809 BTC (1.972%) Profit This Month: -598.52212653 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 14376431 : SatoshiDice Tx: 8097694 (56.3%) Blockchain MB: 6296.4 : SatoshiDice MB: 3343.0 (53.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJtOy0vQ.png&t=665&c=xayk0DW5D-E8vQ) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FyoMrXVU.png&t=665&c=hS0spswE0a-yKw)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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ar9
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 06, 2013, 12:04:13 AM |
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Down 600 BTC this month!.... yeeeeeep!
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 07, 2013, 06:18:12 AM |
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Total of 78 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-May-06 11:15pm (up to block 234926)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 140387 | 3 (0.00002) | 138032 | 2352 | 1774.89 | 3843.35 | 170.70 | -2068.46 | 216.540 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 12946 | 0 (0.00000) | 12367 | 579 | 176.87 | 0.47 | 27.44 | 176.40 | 0.268 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 14315 | 2 (0.00014) | 13815 | 498 | 202.96 | 320.34 | 17.49 | -117.37 | 157.831 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25389 | 5 (0.00020) | 24849 | 535 | 610.75 | 433.90 | 14.63 | 176.84 | 71.044 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24633 | 5 (0.00021) | 24143 | 485 | 876.24 | 606.61 | 22.19 | 269.63 | 69.229 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30585 | 13 (0.00043) | 30125 | 447 | 1666.86 | 1830.95 | 1.57 | -164.09 | 109.845 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 30996 | 35 (0.00115) | 30437 | 524 | 2196.74 | 1740.44 | 116.99 | 456.29 | 79.228 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22360 | 41 (0.00188) | 21804 | 515 | 2423.65 | 1578.12 | 48.56 | 845.52 | 65.114 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27332 | 116 (0.00431) | 26795 | 421 | 6078.45 | 8662.02 | 13.30 | -2583.56 | 142.504 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39928 | 313 (0.00800) | 38830 | 785 | 8463.21 | 6950.54 | 10.31 | 1512.66 | 82.127 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 153213 | 2359 (0.01546) | 150199 | 655 | 43211.80 | 37541.67 | 2.58 | 5670.13 | 86.878 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26911 | 618 (0.02331) | 25898 | 395 | 8009.00 | 8619.67 | 15.21 | -610.66 | 107.625 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 97759 | 3003 (0.03085) | 94325 | 431 | 43626.08 | 38878.22 | 9.50 | 4747.85 | 89.117 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31940 | 1460 (0.04645) | 29975 | 505 | 9892.14 | 10689.30 | 25.45 | -797.15 | 108.058 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39604 | 2431 (0.06204) | 36755 | 418 | 7960.50 | 7901.26 | 31.44 | 59.24 | 99.256 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 56629 | 5126 (0.09140) | 50957 | 546 | 17174.44 | 18708.21 | 7.65 | -1533.77 | 108.931 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 220404 | 27018 (0.12293) | 192761 | 625 | 101428.38 | 100719.26 | 101.01 | 709.12 | 99.301 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 124794 | 22782 (0.18352) | 101354 | 658 | 180130.64 | 181564.37 | 3315.34 | -1433.72 | 100.796 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 300913 | 73247 (0.24402) | 226923 | 743 | 380429.25 | 366626.93 | 2323.09 | 13802.32 | 96.372 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 292663 | 107288 (0.36747) | 184679 | 696 | 596290.96 | 587543.57 | 1013.69 | 8747.38 | 98.533 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1245673 | 606961 (0.48803) | 636725 | 1987 | 921005.03 | 902784.84 | 2926.29 | 18220.19 | 98.022 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 717655 | 357778 (0.49971) | 358192 | 1685 | 703959.03 | 686653.46 | 6523.38 | 17305.57 | 97.542 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 414167 | 303686 (0.73489) | 109554 | 927 | 313006.34 | 305635.55 | 6172.97 | 7370.79 | 97.645 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 94565 | 74545 (0.79407) | 19332 | 688 | 66475.82 | 64843.45 | 1188.14 | 1632.36 | 97.544 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 88945 | 75588 (0.85728) | 12584 | 773 | 83859.42 | 83093.79 | 401.26 | 765.62 | 99.087 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 139909 | 127292 (0.91575) | 11711 | 906 | 78234.02 | 77067.72 | 2.05 | 1166.30 | 98.509 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 22968 | 20744 (0.97840) | 458 | 1766 | 25144.14 | 24721.86 | 241.21 | 422.27 | 98.321 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4314018 | 1756753 | 2536014 | 21251 | 855010.77 | 840141.41 | 337.38 | 14869.36 | 98.261 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123565 | 55706 | 67565 | 294 | 2749296.98 | 2689418.61 | 24406.21 | 59878.37 | 97.822 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4437583 | 1812459 | 2603579 | 21545 | 3604307.76 | 3529560.02 | 24743.59 | 74747.73 | 97.926 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 74747.73901096 BTC (2.074%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3671.62437500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 71076.11463596 BTC (1.972%) Pending Liabilities: -10.79555814 BTC Final SD Profit: 71086.91019410 BTC (1.972%) Profit This Month: -516.49815052 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 14448006 : SatoshiDice Tx: 8133691 (56.3%) Blockchain MB: 6331.4 : SatoshiDice MB: 3357.8 (53.0%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FDdGizrg.png&t=665&c=AP9qMMzkAwEx2w) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FWJexfjy.png&t=665&c=XaqW2oJ1FLPjLQ)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2013, 01:53:54 AM |
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Total of 47 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-May-07 06:33pm (up to block 235057)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 140898 | 3 (0.00002) | 138535 | 2360 | 1783.45 | 3843.39 | 170.74 | -2059.93 | 215.502 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 13065 | 0 (0.00000) | 12485 | 580 | 178.31 | 0.48 | 27.45 | 177.82 | 0.270 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 14680 | 2 (0.00014) | 14180 | 498 | 207.34 | 320.36 | 17.49 | -113.02 | 154.508 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 25428 | 5 (0.00020) | 24888 | 535 | 611.26 | 433.91 | 14.63 | 177.35 | 70.986 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 24642 | 5 (0.00021) | 24151 | 486 | 876.50 | 606.61 | 22.20 | 269.88 | 69.208 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 30609 | 13 (0.00043) | 30149 | 447 | 1667.43 | 1830.95 | 1.57 | -163.52 | 109.807 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 31030 | 35 (0.00115) | 30470 | 525 | 2197.34 | 1740.45 | 116.99 | 456.89 | 79.207 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 22376 | 41 (0.00188) | 21820 | 515 | 2426.79 | 1578.14 | 48.56 | 848.65 | 65.030 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 27345 | 116 (0.00431) | 26807 | 422 | 6078.70 | 8662.03 | 13.31 | -2583.32 | 142.498 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 39947 | 314 (0.00802) | 38848 | 785 | 8463.44 | 6951.79 | 10.31 | 1511.65 | 82.139 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 153888 | 2378 (0.01552) | 150854 | 656 | 43243.28 | 37573.49 | 2.58 | 5669.79 | 86.889 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 26919 | 618 (0.02330) | 25906 | 395 | 8009.10 | 8619.67 | 15.21 | -610.56 | 107.623 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 98114 | 3005 (0.03076) | 94677 | 432 | 43634.48 | 38878.90 | 9.51 | 4755.57 | 89.101 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 31990 | 1462 (0.04644) | 30021 | 507 | 9898.08 | 10710.65 | 25.46 | -812.56 | 108.209 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 39662 | 2435 (0.06205) | 36809 | 418 | 7967.45 | 7909.69 | 31.44 | 57.75 | 99.275 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 56677 | 5133 (0.09145) | 50997 | 547 | 17179.11 | 18720.41 | 7.65 | -1541.30 | 108.972 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 221791 | 27199 (0.12298) | 193967 | 625 | 101539.76 | 100803.85 | 101.01 | 735.90 | 99.275 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 125156 | 22837 (0.18343) | 101661 | 658 | 180159.36 | 181596.94 | 3315.34 | -1437.58 | 100.798 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 301722 | 73431 (0.24398) | 227546 | 745 | 380655.78 | 366718.43 | 2323.10 | 13937.35 | 96.339 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 293406 | 107578 (0.36753) | 185127 | 701 | 596371.23 | 587607.23 | 1013.71 | 8763.99 | 98.530 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1248163 | 608192 (0.48805) | 637982 | 1989 | 922004.53 | 903538.27 | 2926.30 | 18466.26 | 97.997 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 720052 | 358959 (0.49970) | 359395 | 1698 | 704638.33 | 687334.04 | 6523.42 | 17304.29 | 97.544 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 415380 | 304571 (0.73488) | 109881 | 928 | 313137.78 | 305749.62 | 6172.98 | 7388.16 | 97.641 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 94692 | 74642 (0.79404) | 19361 | 689 | 66534.56 | 64909.97 | 1188.14 | 1624.59 | 97.558 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 89183 | 75785 (0.85721) | 12624 | 774 | 83889.41 | 83120.64 | 401.26 | 768.76 | 99.084 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 140337 | 127679 (0.91572) | 11751 | 907 | 78263.00 | 77096.64 | 2.05 | 1166.36 | 98.510 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 23028 | 20795 (0.97840) | 459 | 1774 | 25157.94 | 24735.60 | 241.22 | 422.34 | 98.321 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 4326519 | 1761485 | 2543732 | 21302 | 856192.63 | 841213.68 | 337.58 | 14978.95 | 98.251 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 123661 | 55748 | 67619 | 294 | 2750581.23 | 2690378.56 | 24406.21 | 60202.66 | 97.811 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4450180 | 1817233 | 2611351 | 21596 | 3606773.86 | 3531592.25 | 24743.79 | 75181.61 | 97.916 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 75181.61839869 BTC (2.084%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3684.85097500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 71496.76742369 BTC (1.982%) Pending Liabilities: 9.40307656 BTC Final SD Profit: 71487.36434713 BTC (1.982%) Profit This Month: -116.04399749 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 14492750 : SatoshiDice Tx: 8156771 (56.3%) Blockchain MB: 6353.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 3367.4 (53.0%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgPceYvQ.png&t=665&c=z7B0w5LHlhKfCg) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fbg1kN5R.png&t=665&c=7MB0nWHK6WN6SQ)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
May 08, 2013, 01:55:47 AM |
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Most of the recent profit seems to be the result of a failed martingale progression: Tue May 7 15:26:00 2013 <32000 234999 c147128be6fdda3e:1 1Hx1WXVC2pxePX64vGtNSFxa8rSbusjR4K BET 22.00000000 LOSE -21.89000000 Tue May 7 15:32:44 2013 <32000 235001 bda7674f62de0208:0 1KevcTrG9vCqskLvBQNBeStvPqSTDmXHp2 BET 44.00000000 LOSE -43.78000000 Tue May 7 15:36:42 2013 <32000 235003 2dea536e1d5873ac:1 1CcQd35vZoTGZrNzv6PQZuQL3SbTjSvt82 BET 88.00000000 LOSE -87.56000000 Tue May 7 16:00:20 2013 <32000 235004 90e65f73a3fe18c2:0 18xY7aPb9wbGhQQqBArJTwdhfCpvhUubzw BET 154.00000000 LOSE -153.23000000 Edit: and who knows - maybe the recent slow decline in profits was the result of a sequence of successful martingale progressions, maybe even by the same player.
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