Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[kidgorgeous]

Looks like that same big spender is back:

Code:

Details	2012-12-13 19:33:19	lessthan 32000	e5e1cda3	116c4735	1dhAwVy		100.00000000	LOSE	0.49950000	38120
Details	2012-12-13 19:33:10	lessthan 8000	e5e1cda3	88b5b4e8	1dhAwVy		25.00000000	LOSE	0.12450000	38120
Details	2012-12-13 19:33:06	lessthan 16000	e5e1cda3	5e26d819	1dhAwVy		90.00000000	LOSE	0.44950000	38120
Details	2012-12-13 19:33:05	lessthan 32768	e5e1cda3	7af3b26a	1dhAwVy		110.00000000	LOSE	0.54950000	38120
Details	2012-12-13 19:32:59	lessthan 24000	e5e1cda3	4430da1f	1dhAwVy		50.00000000	LOSE	0.24950000	38120
Details	2012-12-13 19:32:57	lessthan 12000	e5e1cda3	90e8c978	1dhAwVy		30.00000000	LOSE	0.14950000	38120
Details	2012-12-13 19:32:49	lessthan 8000	09cbbd68	2d6e08d8	1EP4rM8		25.00000000	LOSE	0.12450000	19769
Details	2012-12-13 19:32:41	lessthan 12000	09cbbd68	d7dc54d9	1EP4rM8		30.00000000	LOSE	0.14950000	19769
Details	2012-12-13 19:32:35	lessthan 16000	09cbbd68	6864302e	1EP4rM8		90.00000000	LOSE	0.44950000	19769
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:27	lessthan 8000	438e367f	e6178667	17sjYPa	PENDING	25.00000000	LOSE	0.12450000	14629
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:19	lessthan 12000	d00de002	fe9ff550	1Di6ux3	PENDING	30.00000000	WIN	160.05734000	6052
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:15	lessthan 48000	438e367f	1cc76258	17sjYPa	PENDING	50.00000000	WIN	66.87776666	14629
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:13	lessthan 16000	438e367f	c4dbd4c4	17sjYPa	PENDING	90.00000000	WIN	360.24214000	14629
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:11	lessthan 32768	438e367f	1b5d0f90	17sjYPa	PENDING	110.00000000	WIN	215.26950000	14629
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:09	lessthan 12000	438e367f	ae1cfeb5	17sjYPa	PENDING	30.00000000	LOSE	0.14950000	14629
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:08	lessthan 24000	438e367f	94b91cc5	17sjYPa	PENDING	50.00000000	WIN	133.50603333	14629
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:07	lessthan 48000	d00de002	c0ba3bc9	1Di6ux3	PENDING	50.00000000	WIN	66.87776666	6052
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:04	lessthan 24000	d00de002	bf22495e	1Di6ux3	PENDING	50.00000000	WIN	133.50603333	6052
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:02	lessthan 16000	d00de002	bfbcf344	1Di6ux3	PENDING	90.00000000	WIN	360.24214000	6052
Details	2012-12-13 19:29:00	lessthan 32000	438e367f	a6cd4ecf	17sjYPa	PENDING	100.00000000	WIN	200.38430000	14629
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:54	lessthan 32768	d00de002	40db7752	1Di6ux3	PENDING	110.00000000	WIN	215.26950000	6052
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:53	lessthan 8000	d00de002	4115d3c2	1Di6ux3	PENDING	25.00000000	WIN	200.00930000	6052
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:46	lessthan 8000	28511504	6d92758a	1Mn9Zn1	PENDING	25.00000000	WIN	200.00930000	1844
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:43	lessthan 16000	28511504	70c307c5	1Mn9Zn1	PENDING	90.00000000	WIN	360.24214000	1844
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:41	lessthan 48000	28511504	cbb9a41c	1Mn9Zn1	PENDING	50.00000000	WIN	66.87776666	1844
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:39	lessthan 32000	28511504	f758ec85	1Mn9Zn1	PENDING	100.00000000	WIN	200.38430000	1844
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:38	lessthan 24000	28511504	0af1b599	1Mn9Zn1	PENDING	50.00000000	WIN	133.50603333	1844
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:34	lessthan 32768	28511504	c19d8c01	1Mn9Zn1	PENDING	110.00000000	WIN	215.26950000	1844
Details	2012-12-13 19:28:32	lessthan 12000	28511504	bc444ef6	1Mn9Zn1	PENDING	30.00000000	WIN	160.05734000	1844

I need to get some of shares of SatoshiDice.

[1714178919]

1714178919

[1714178919]

1714178919

[Bugpowder]

They are back... 10k bet in last hour.  Dice is down by 500BTC.

[MPOE-PR]

wow. I mean, WOW. Some people are really going nuts. If it weren't for the shareholders I would also have thought the play against themselves just for PR. But this will result in huge shareholder payments, so very unlikely.

Over $130,000. I think some real competition to satoshidice might be coming soon.

Indeed 
But for sure not yet ready for THAT kind of volume. Im still blown away.

It's been coming soon since August, so why not. Day after BFL ships.

[Bugpowder]

wow. I mean, WOW. Some people are really going nuts. If it weren't for the shareholders I would also have thought the play against themselves just for PR. But this will result in huge shareholder payments, so very unlikely.

Over $130,000. I think some real competition to satoshidice might be coming soon.

Indeed 
But for sure not yet ready for THAT kind of volume. Im still blown away.

It's been coming soon since August, so why not. Day after BFL ships.

First mover advantage, long history of transactions that match the house house edge, advertising, API interface, potential partnerships with real-world casinos...   I don't see clones displacing much volume.  Gonna have to be something significantly better and different.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Dec-13 03:12pm (up to block 212111)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    54616 |      0 (0.00000) |   53652 |     964 |     371.30 |       0.01 |    73.02 |    371.28 |   0.005
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2995 |      0 (0.00000) |    2508 |     487 |      41.62 |       0.00 |    14.83 |     41.62 |   0.004
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     4567 |      0 (0.00000) |    4154 |     413 |      55.58 |       0.04 |     7.44 |     55.53 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     5740 |      2 (0.00038) |    5330 |     408 |      84.80 |      16.08 |     7.01 |     68.71 |  18.971
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     7129 |      1 (0.00015) |    6722 |     406 |     186.48 |       4.32 |    18.65 |    182.16 |   2.321
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     8922 |      3 (0.00035) |    8531 |     388 |     500.47 |     303.44 |     1.36 |    197.03 |  60.631
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    11489 |     10 (0.00090) |   11089 |     390 |     774.53 |     135.65 |    55.69 |    638.87 |  17.515
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    13057 |     23 (0.00182) |   12613 |     421 |    1705.84 |    1293.38 |    48.30 |    412.45 |  75.821
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    16294 |     69 (0.00433) |   15855 |     370 |    1891.67 |    2651.98 |    13.16 |   -760.31 | 140.193
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    22239 |    164 (0.00760) |   21409 |     666 |    3623.82 |    3453.08 |     9.94 |    170.74 |  95.288
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    60213 |    923 (0.01544) |   58865 |     425 |   14606.95 |   12112.13 |     1.90 |   2494.81 |  82.920
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18909 |    447 (0.02407) |   18120 |     342 |    5973.32 |    6240.61 |    15.04 |   -267.29 | 104.475
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    35039 |   1088 (0.03138) |   33580 |     371 |   12726.03 |   11157.15 |     9.29 |   1568.88 |  87.672
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    20511 |    934 (0.04645) |   19173 |     404 |    8154.32 |    9295.88 |    25.08 |  -1141.55 | 113.999
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    25581 |   1549 (0.06141) |   23674 |     358 |    5456.37 |    4980.66 |    31.25 |    475.71 |  91.282
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    28961 |   2679 (0.09369) |   25914 |     368 |   12020.23 |   12702.35 |     7.09 |   -682.12 | 105.675
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   118214 |  14429 (0.12249) |  103371 |     414 |   35558.26 |   33881.69 |   100.10 |   1676.57 |  95.285
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    39367 |   7206 (0.18496) |   31754 |     407 |   32413.86 |   31154.66 |   114.63 |   1259.19 |  96.115
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   139451 |  33810 (0.24319) |  105219 |     422 |  110500.97 |  108433.53 |   616.93 |   2067.44 |  98.129
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   108262 |  39623 (0.36753) |   68186 |     453 |  112238.15 |  110841.79 |   212.78 |   1396.36 |  98.756
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   744747 | 363316 (0.48867) |  380158 |    1273 |  464763.14 |  458587.49 |  2923.75 |   6175.64 |  98.671
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   311613 | 155180 (0.49917) |  155696 |     737 |  309176.28 |  300561.31 |  5319.98 |   8614.97 |  97.214
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   209806 | 154059 (0.73596) |   55273 |     474 |  217244.77 |  212606.38 |  5454.67 |   4638.38 |  97.865
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    31310 |  24640 (0.79599) |    6315 |     355 |   39962.85 |   39962.98 |  1187.06 |     -0.13 | 100.000
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    26958 |  22772 (0.85793) |    3771 |     415 |   40112.26 |   39603.09 |   400.08 |    509.17 |  98.731
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    26190 |  23654 (0.91654) |    2154 |     382 |   40024.77 |   39905.15 |     0.04 |    119.61 |  99.701
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    10757 |   9997 (0.98096) |     194 |     566 |   20309.84 |   19965.02 |   239.34 |    344.82 |  98.302
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2033693 | 822113           | 1198767 |   12813 |  484988.89 |  474825.20 |   184.82 |  10163.69 |  97.904
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    69244 |  34465           |   34513 |     266 | 1005489.71 |  985024.78 | 16723.70 |  20464.92 |  97.965
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  2102937 | 856578           | 1233280 |   13079 | 1490478.61 | 1459849.98 | 16908.52 |  30628.62 |  97.945
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      30628.62760334 BTC (2.055%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1297.60427500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       29331.02332834 BTC (1.968%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.04999999 BTC
Final SD Profit:            29331.07332833 BTC (1.968%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  6970351  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3873105  (55.6%)
Blockchain MB:   2966.4  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1588.5  (53.6%)

[Bugpowder]

And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.   

[jamesg]

And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.   

Somebody has too many coins on their hands.... 

[Yuhfhrh]

And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.   

Somebody has too many coins on their hands.... 

They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!

[Hippie Tech]

And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.   

Somebody has too many coins on their hands.... 

They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!

Bitcoin will be doomed to failure if it doesn't shed all of it's fiat currency traits. eg. gambling, interest..

Then there is the pool system. From what I've seen, PPS and DGM miners are not being paid fairly. If the ENTIRE BTC network was one giant proportoinal pool, we would ALL get our FAIR share and make shady pool owners and pool hopping a thing of the past.

pEACe

[Bugpowder]

And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales.

S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.   

Somebody has too many coins on their hands.... 

And then down 1500BTC in 8 minutes of betting...

I gotta stop looking at this, too crazy.

These bets are moving the line 1500BTC in a single transaction.  Did veganhippie get another $200,000 stake from poker investors and is blowing it on Satoshi Dice instead?

[Stephen Gornick]

Bitcoin will be doomed to failure if it doesn't shed all of it's fiat currency traits. eg. gambling, interest..

Where is this utopia of which you speak?

[Yuhfhrh]

Bitcoin will be doomed to failure if it doesn't shed all of it's fiat currency traits. eg. gambling, interest..

Where is this utopia of which you speak?

Didn't you hear? Some bitcoin users were going to go live on an island in the bermuda triangle and start a utopia, running their bitcoin clients off dial-up on their satellite phones. Why else do you think everyone keeps complaining about pruning the blockchain?   [/random moment]

[Hippie Tech]

Bitcoin will be doomed to failure if it doesn't shed all of it's fiat currency traits. eg. gambling, interest..

Where is this utopia of which you speak?

Some day the corporate evil bankster warpig moles that have infiltrated BTC and are attempting to orchestrate its demise, will be exposed and shunned by the grassroots community.

Bitcoin will be doomed to failure if it doesn't shed all of it's fiat currency traits. eg. gambling, interest..

Where is this utopia of which you speak?

Didn't you hear? Some bitcoin users were going to go live on an island in the bermuda triangle and start a utopia, running their bitcoin clients off dial-up on their satellite phones. Why else do you think everyone keeps complaining about pruning the blockchain?  [/random moment]

lol... Shut up stupid Flanders ! And wake up.

What/where ever it is, it will be better than the 2000 years of genocide and war that your (and other) disfunctional religions have brought to the world.

[dooglus]

[...] disfunctional religion has brought to the world.

Anyway... 

(Note the large amount of pending liabilities - lots of 'stuck' bets at the moment).

Results: 2012-Dec-14 10:59am (up to block 212205)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    55053 |      0 (0.00000) |   54089 |     964 |     380.39 |       0.01 |    73.02 |    380.37 |   0.005
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     2999 |      0 (0.00000) |    2512 |     487 |      41.78 |       0.00 |    14.83 |     41.78 |   0.004
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     4571 |      0 (0.00000) |    4158 |     413 |      55.74 |       0.04 |     7.44 |     55.69 |   0.087
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     5757 |      2 (0.00037) |    5347 |     408 |      85.05 |      16.08 |     7.01 |     68.96 |  18.915
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     7155 |      1 (0.00015) |    6748 |     406 |     186.91 |       4.32 |    18.65 |    182.59 |   2.315
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     8926 |      3 (0.00035) |    8535 |     388 |     500.73 |     303.44 |     1.36 |    197.29 |  60.600
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    11495 |     10 (0.00090) |   11095 |     390 |     774.73 |     135.65 |    55.69 |    639.07 |  17.510
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    13066 |     23 (0.00182) |   12622 |     421 |    1706.07 |    1293.38 |    48.30 |    412.68 |  75.811
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    16402 |     69 (0.00430) |   15963 |     370 |    1895.75 |    2651.98 |    13.16 |   -756.23 | 139.891
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    22305 |    164 (0.00758) |   21475 |     666 |    3625.41 |    3453.08 |     9.94 |    172.33 |  95.246
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    60884 |    938 (0.01551) |   59521 |     425 |   14673.16 |   12160.90 |     1.90 |   2512.25 |  82.879
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    18919 |    447 (0.02406) |   18130 |     342 |    5974.64 |    6240.62 |    15.04 |   -265.97 | 104.452
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    35568 |   1112 (0.03159) |   34085 |     371 |   12861.70 |   11214.29 |     9.29 |   1647.40 |  87.191
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    20515 |    934 (0.04644) |   19177 |     404 |    8154.89 |    9295.88 |    25.08 |  -1140.98 | 113.991
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    25785 |   1558 (0.06127) |   23869 |     358 |    5469.11 |    4993.82 |    31.25 |    475.29 |  91.310
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    29252 |   2707 (0.09372) |   26177 |     368 |   12031.77 |   12719.47 |     7.09 |   -687.69 | 105.716
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   118780 |  14494 (0.12245) |  103872 |     414 |   35774.21 |   34097.85 |   100.10 |   1676.35 |  95.314
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    39763 |   7277 (0.18490) |   32079 |     407 |   32789.19 |   31178.08 |   114.63 |   1611.10 |  95.086
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   140248 |  34016 (0.24327) |  105810 |     422 |  112124.83 |  108575.44 |   616.93 |   3549.38 |  96.834
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   108819 |  39830 (0.36755) |   68536 |     453 |  113554.27 |  110931.32 |   212.78 |   2622.95 |  97.690
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   747484 | 364669 (0.48869) |  381541 |    1274 |  466160.71 |  460069.28 |  2923.75 |   6091.42 |  98.693
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   314121 | 156434 (0.49918) |  156950 |     737 |  309694.13 |  301067.99 |  5319.98 |   8626.14 |  97.215
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   210693 | 154702 (0.73591) |   55517 |     474 |  217398.15 |  212751.70 |  5454.67 |   4646.45 |  97.863
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    31930 |  25127 (0.79579) |    6448 |     355 |   40176.06 |   40163.36 |  1187.06 |     12.70 |  99.968
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    27176 |  22959 (0.85793) |    3802 |     415 |   40286.79 |   39763.11 |   400.08 |    523.68 |  98.700
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |    26952 |  24342 (0.91615) |    2228 |     382 |   40888.70 |   40686.62 |     0.04 |    202.08 |  99.506
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    10786 |  10026 (0.98102) |     194 |     566 |   20325.75 |   19980.98 |   239.34 |    344.76 |  98.304
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  2045969 | 827286           | 1205869 |   12814 |  486950.33 |  476763.01 |   184.82 |  10187.32 |  97.908
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    69435 |  34558           |   34611 |     266 | 1010640.41 |  986985.80 | 16723.70 |  23654.61 |  97.659
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                                |  2115404 | 861844           | 1240480 |   13080 | 1497590.74 | 1463748.81 | 16908.52 |  33841.93 |  97.740
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SD Profit before fees:      33841.93121896 BTC (2.260%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        1310.07157500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       32531.85964396 BTC (2.172%)
Pending Liabilities:         2978.24707116 BTC
Final SD Profit:            29553.61257280 BTC (1.973%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  7006161  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  3894916  (55.6%)
Blockchain MB:   2981.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   1597.6  (53.6%)

[dooglus]

There are lots of small bets that weren't paid out yet.  These are the big ones:

Code:

            txid:n   block               date   game (lucky - result   )                            address   stake  payout  profit
------------------  ------ ------------------ ------  -----   ---------  ----------------------------------   -----  ------  ------
06cf6fffa256c7ef:0  212120 16:31:40 Dec-13-12 <24000 (15128 - WIN      ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah  250.00  667.53  417.53
06cf6fffa256c7ef:1  212120 16:31:40 Dec-13-12 <16000 (15128 - WIN      ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah  250.00 1000.67  750.67
7bac794132daa451:0  212120 16:31:40 Dec-13-12 <24000 ( 6538 - WIN      ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah  250.00  667.53  417.53
7bac794132daa451:1  212120 16:31:40 Dec-13-12 <16000 ( 6538 - WIN      ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah  250.00 1000.67  750.67
7bac794132daa451:2  212120 16:31:40 Dec-13-12 <12000 ( 6538 - WIN      ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah   50.00  266.76  216.76
b8b0babdf03f6bfd:0  212120 16:31:40 Dec-13-12 <24000 (17896 - WIN      ) 1Di6ux3CQBNXCZLD76BsnYWDo6XnFGzQah  250.00  667.53  417.53

Total of 137 bets unaccounted for.

[MPOE-PR]

They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!

Like...you know...buying the stock.

[Yuhfhrh]

They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!

Like...you know...buying the stock.

I think you would get more bang for your buck this way lol

I think it would be wiser to do that.

[Bugpowder]

They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!

Like...you know...buying the stock.

2,000,000 purchase.

 

Time to get in before the IPO sells out.

[organofcorti]

Then there is the pool system. From what I've seen, PPS and DGM miners are not being paid fairly. If the ENTIRE BTC network was one giant proportoinal pool, we would ALL get our FAIR share and make shady pool owners and pool hopping a thing of the past.

pEACe

Such bullshit. Please provide one provable example, not just someone whining "but I feel like I should be getting more!"

[byronbb]

wow. I mean, WOW. Some people are really going nuts. If it weren't for the shareholders I would also have thought the play against themselves just for PR. But this will result in huge shareholder payments, so very unlikely.

Over $130,000. I think some real competition to satoshidice might be coming soon.

Indeed 
But for sure not yet ready for THAT kind of volume. Im still blown away.

There are some huge gamblers out there. I was watching betfair volume once and saw a million dollar bet go through on a soccer match. (He lost). SatoshiDice can really only be improved upon by offering higher limits and lowering house edge, which they might be able to do if they got into the coin mixing business for example.