byronbb
Legendary
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Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
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January 04, 2013, 06:41:41 AM |
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I always thought the point of an IPO would be to increase the size of their bankroll. Essentially borrowing btc and paying interest at a rate just below that of expected earnings. Whales love to gamble big in low edge games. The asian market for high limits low edge is very real. Baccarat (1 % house edge "coin flip" game) is commonly dealt in Macau for 100k a hand.
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smickles
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 04, 2013, 05:22:57 PM |
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I always thought the point of an IPO would be to increase the size of their bankroll. Essentially borrowing btc and paying interest at a rate just below that of expected earnings. Whales love to gamble big in low edge games. The asian market for high limits low edge is very real. Baccarat (1 % house edge "coin flip" game) is commonly dealt in Macau for 100k a hand.
Heh, well, as I understood it, most of the btc from the public offering was earmarked for Mr. Voorhees wallet. The rest was for advertising and such.
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smickles
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 04, 2013, 05:24:06 PM |
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Oh, and dooglus, thanks for keeping up the analysis. It's especially useful to have those current month charts ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 05, 2013, 12:25:07 AM |
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Oh, and dooglus, thanks for keeping up the analysis. It's especially useful to have those current month charts ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) You're welcome. Today's report is a little later than usual, but here it is: Total of 4 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-04 04:21pm (up to block 215196)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 61688 | 0 (0.00000) | 60582 | 1106 | 521.76 | 0.01 | 85.47 | 521.74 | 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3129 | 0 (0.00000) | 2637 | 492 | 45.91 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 45.90 | 0.010 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5113 | 1 (0.00021) | 4694 | 418 | 67.88 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -92.07 | 235.642 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7706 | 2 (0.00027) | 7284 | 420 | 111.39 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.30 | 14.445 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9321 | 1 (0.00011) | 8913 | 407 | 231.62 | 4.39 | 18.65 | 227.23 | 1.898 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9393 | 3 (0.00033) | 9001 | 389 | 534.00 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 230.49 | 56.836 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12249 | 12 (0.00101) | 11839 | 398 | 805.35 | 155.67 | 55.70 | 649.67 | 19.330 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15249 | 28 (0.00189) | 14794 | 427 | 1862.30 | 1318.93 | 48.31 | 543.36 | 70.823 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 16951 | 71 (0.00428) | 16505 | 375 | 2017.32 | 2909.06 | 13.16 | -891.74 | 144.205 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25079 | 183 (0.00750) | 24228 | 668 | 4283.68 | 3929.39 | 9.94 | 354.29 | 91.729 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 73573 | 1132 (0.01548) | 72004 | 437 | 19187.01 | 16975.60 | 1.91 | 2211.41 | 88.474 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19700 | 461 (0.02382) | 18891 | 348 | 6386.73 | 6445.79 | 15.06 | -59.06 | 100.925 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 43386 | 1341 (0.03118) | 41669 | 376 | 20449.30 | 17618.11 | 9.31 | 2831.19 | 86.155 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22660 | 1030 (0.04629) | 21223 | 407 | 8364.31 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1053.11 | 112.591 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28397 | 1725 (0.06153) | 26311 | 361 | 6155.78 | 5670.90 | 31.25 | 484.88 | 92.123 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32391 | 3008 (0.09398) | 28999 | 384 | 13062.40 | 14621.86 | 7.11 | -1559.46 | 111.939 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 133225 | 16351 (0.12313) | 116443 | 431 | 52047.40 | 50562.91 | 100.18 | 1484.48 | 97.148 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 49859 | 9169 (0.18547) | 40267 | 423 | 83630.16 | 82390.71 | 3314.63 | 1239.44 | 98.518 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 156905 | 38117 (0.24364) | 118332 | 456 | 176065.51 | 176285.68 | 1617.02 | -220.17 | 100.125 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 129086 | 47361 (0.36826) | 81246 | 479 | 172067.32 | 168793.04 | 1012.85 | 3274.27 | 98.097 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 824185 | 401957 (0.48850) | 420890 | 1338 | 549893.39 | 541052.14 | 2923.90 | 8841.25 | 98.392 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 356741 | 177702 (0.49922) | 178257 | 782 | 389166.79 | 380144.06 | 5720.12 | 9022.73 | 97.682 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 239032 | 175545 (0.73595) | 62984 | 503 | 243277.31 | 237788.01 | 5454.76 | 5489.30 | 97.744 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 42929 | 33809 (0.79483) | 8727 | 393 | 48583.24 | 47635.97 | 1187.12 | 947.27 | 98.050 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32303 | 27307 (0.85677) | 4565 | 431 | 44547.03 | 43898.65 | 400.12 | 648.38 | 98.544 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 38841 | 35197 (0.91568) | 3241 | 403 | 48643.47 | 48444.10 | 0.09 | 199.36 | 99.590 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11560 | 10728 (0.98098) | 208 | 624 | 21300.30 | 20951.43 | 239.42 | 348.86 | 98.362 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2322145 | 944100 | 1364657 | 13388 | 537213.00 | 525605.43 | 203.68 | 11607.56 | 97.839 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 78506 | 38141 | 40077 | 288 | 1376095.78 | 1351888.06 | 22123.70 | 24207.71 | 98.241 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2400651 | 982241 | 1404734 | 13676 | 1913308.78 | 1877493.50 | 22327.38 | 35815.27 | 98.128 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35815.27597646 BTC (1.872%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1596.06607500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 34219.20990146 BTC (1.788%) Pending Liabilities: -1.96051998 BTC Final SD Profit: 34221.17042144 BTC (1.789%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7852791 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4407687 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 3343.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 1811.4 (54.2%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FYnpUK.png&t=665&c=i6u7sRRLR7L47Q) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJCMKF.png&t=665&c=iZIzLmFXT9unJg)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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etotheipi (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1093
Core Armory Developer
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January 05, 2013, 12:57:45 AM |
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Just an update that's hasn't been mentioned here: evoorhees says that they just switched to the per-TxOut method of computing lucky numbers, instead of per-transaction. That means that bets on SD are no longer correlated: you get a different lucky number for each output in a single transaction. If betting continues exactly the same way, SD will have the exact same expected profit, but with much lower overall variance. It will cut down quite a bit on those enormous swings.
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Bugpowder
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 05, 2013, 01:33:49 AM |
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Just an update that's hasn't been mentioned here: evoorhees says that they just switched to the per-TxOut method of computing lucky numbers, instead of per-transaction. That means that bets on SD are no longer correlated: you get a different lucky number for each output in a single transaction. If betting continues exactly the same way, SD will have the exact same expected profit, but with much lower overall variance. It will cut down quite a bit on those enormous swings.
I hope the whales are satisfied with this new setup. Maybe we can get some higher max bets then, up to 1000BTC for less than 64000, and 500 for less than 32000? We know there should be sufficient house capital to handle it now.
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 05, 2013, 07:35:36 PM |
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I hope the whales are satisfied with this new setup. Maybe we can get some higher max bets then, up to 1000BTC for less than 64000, and 500 for less than 32000? We know there should be sufficient house capital to handle it now.
At 2013-01-03 00:00 GMT (In about an hour) the logic for calculating the bet hash which was hmac512(secret, bet_transaction_id) will be changed to hmac512(secret, bet_transaction_id + ":" + bet_output_index)
The change happened on the 3rd. The betting has really dropped off since then. I guess time will tell whether the change has scared the whale off or not. It's not like he was constantly betting before the change. Here's a chart showing the bet volume over the last couple of months. The whale activity is around the same time each week, and never around the weekends. The labels on the X axis are Saturdays: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fr7YAt.png&t=665&c=Emzu-DE6DWmKFg)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 05, 2013, 07:37:45 PM |
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Results: 2013-Jan-05 10:43am (up to block 215298)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 62099 | 0 (0.00000) | 60993 | 1106 | 530.40 | 0.01 | 85.47 | 530.38 | 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3142 | 0 (0.00000) | 2650 | 492 | 46.04 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 46.03 | 0.010 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5116 | 1 (0.00021) | 4697 | 418 | 67.91 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -92.04 | 235.538 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7708 | 2 (0.00027) | 7286 | 420 | 111.41 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.32 | 14.442 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9324 | 1 (0.00011) | 8916 | 407 | 231.78 | 4.39 | 18.65 | 227.39 | 1.897 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9412 | 3 (0.00033) | 9020 | 389 | 534.40 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 230.89 | 56.793 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12257 | 12 (0.00101) | 11847 | 398 | 806.52 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 650.83 | 19.303 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15259 | 28 (0.00189) | 14804 | 427 | 1862.88 | 1318.93 | 48.31 | 543.95 | 70.801 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 16962 | 71 (0.00428) | 16516 | 375 | 2017.59 | 2909.06 | 13.16 | -891.47 | 144.185 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25092 | 184 (0.00753) | 24240 | 668 | 4284.37 | 3941.88 | 9.94 | 342.48 | 92.006 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 73807 | 1134 (0.01546) | 72236 | 437 | 19195.57 | 16982.65 | 1.91 | 2212.91 | 88.472 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19718 | 461 (0.02380) | 18909 | 348 | 6388.43 | 6445.80 | 15.06 | -57.37 | 100.898 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 43580 | 1344 (0.03111) | 41860 | 376 | 20452.79 | 17621.95 | 9.31 | 2830.84 | 86.159 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22672 | 1030 (0.04626) | 21235 | 407 | 8364.65 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1052.77 | 112.586 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28416 | 1727 (0.06156) | 26328 | 361 | 6157.32 | 5675.69 | 31.25 | 481.62 | 92.178 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32451 | 3011 (0.09390) | 29056 | 384 | 13070.09 | 14626.68 | 7.11 | -1556.59 | 111.910 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 133429 | 16378 (0.12315) | 116619 | 432 | 52060.12 | 50569.22 | 100.18 | 1490.90 | 97.136 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 50094 | 9208 (0.18538) | 40463 | 423 | 83649.94 | 82407.32 | 3314.63 | 1242.61 | 98.515 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 157392 | 38223 (0.24356) | 118713 | 456 | 176118.27 | 176325.79 | 1617.02 | -207.51 | 100.118 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 129814 | 47635 (0.36831) | 81699 | 480 | 172184.82 | 168905.35 | 1012.86 | 3279.46 | 98.095 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 827324 | 403444 (0.48844) | 422542 | 1338 | 552537.34 | 543825.80 | 2923.90 | 8711.53 | 98.423 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 357837 | 178231 (0.49917) | 178824 | 782 | 390104.68 | 380959.60 | 5720.12 | 9145.07 | 97.656 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 239439 | 175848 (0.73596) | 63088 | 503 | 243748.60 | 238226.33 | 5454.76 | 5522.26 | 97.734 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43085 | 33932 (0.79481) | 8760 | 393 | 48616.03 | 47669.06 | 1187.12 | 946.97 | 98.052 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32379 | 27372 (0.85677) | 4576 | 431 | 44640.83 | 44003.11 | 400.12 | 637.71 | 98.571 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 39072 | 35407 (0.91567) | 3261 | 404 | 48768.82 | 48572.87 | 0.10 | 195.94 | 99.598 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11576 | 10744 (0.98101) | 208 | 624 | 21305.44 | 20956.59 | 239.42 | 348.84 | 98.363 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2329723 | 947169 | 1369163 | 13391 | 538204.11 | 526533.86 | 203.69 | 11670.25 | 97.832 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 78733 | 38262 | 40183 | 288 | 1379653.04 | 1355467.00 | 22123.70 | 24186.04 | 98.247 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2408456 | 985431 | 1409346 | 13679 | 1917857.16 | 1882000.87 | 22327.39 | 35856.29 | 98.130 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35856.29460173 BTC (1.870%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1603.88207500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 34252.41252673 BTC (1.786%) Pending Liabilities: -3.88524394 BTC Final SD Profit: 34256.29777067 BTC (1.786%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7881500 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4422350 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 3355.2 : SatoshiDice MB: 1817.4 (54.2%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJ5Sgz.png&t=665&c=6ft62-O2VZ2DWQ) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FkH0dZ.png&t=665&c=tY15DsGsawPLAw)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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January 07, 2013, 03:33:17 AM |
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Results: 2013-Jan-06 02:46pm (up to block 215473)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 62395 | 0 (0.00000) | 61284 | 1111 | 533.84 | 0.01 | 85.94 | 533.82 | 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3164 | 0 (0.00000) | 2672 | 492 | 46.38 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 46.38 | 0.010 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5133 | 1 (0.00021) | 4714 | 418 | 68.27 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -91.68 | 234.279 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7717 | 2 (0.00027) | 7295 | 420 | 111.59 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.50 | 14.419 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9426 | 1 (0.00011) | 9018 | 407 | 249.67 | 4.43 | 18.65 | 245.23 | 1.778 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9498 | 3 (0.00033) | 9106 | 389 | 539.06 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 235.55 | 56.302 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12344 | 12 (0.00100) | 11934 | 398 | 810.09 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 654.40 | 19.218 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15277 | 28 (0.00189) | 14822 | 427 | 1864.10 | 1318.93 | 48.31 | 545.16 | 70.755 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17229 | 73 (0.00433) | 16781 | 375 | 2173.31 | 3209.54 | 13.16 | -1036.23 | 147.680 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25209 | 186 (0.00758) | 24355 | 668 | 4295.54 | 3955.64 | 9.94 | 339.89 | 92.087 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 74566 | 1147 (0.01547) | 72982 | 437 | 19250.01 | 17119.07 | 1.91 | 2130.94 | 88.930 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19741 | 461 (0.02377) | 18932 | 348 | 6389.90 | 6445.80 | 15.06 | -55.90 | 100.875 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44015 | 1365 (0.03128) | 42274 | 376 | 20495.34 | 17696.45 | 9.31 | 2798.88 | 86.344 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22695 | 1031 (0.04626) | 21257 | 407 | 8375.60 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.79 | 112.618 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28432 | 1728 (0.06156) | 26343 | 361 | 6160.80 | 5678.90 | 31.25 | 481.89 | 92.178 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32531 | 3016 (0.09382) | 29131 | 384 | 13119.58 | 14677.64 | 7.11 | -1558.05 | 111.876 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134019 | 16442 (0.12308) | 117145 | 432 | 52171.42 | 50664.06 | 100.18 | 1507.36 | 97.111 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 50645 | 9318 (0.18554) | 40904 | 423 | 83689.14 | 82450.96 | 3314.63 | 1238.17 | 98.521 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 157849 | 38334 (0.24356) | 119059 | 456 | 176226.72 | 176449.36 | 1617.02 | -222.63 | 100.126 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 131447 | 48233 (0.36828) | 82734 | 480 | 172535.80 | 169292.01 | 1012.86 | 3243.78 | 98.120 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 830117 | 404824 (0.48846) | 423955 | 1338 | 554276.92 | 545583.85 | 2923.90 | 8693.07 | 98.432 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 359541 | 179084 (0.49918) | 179675 | 782 | 391799.92 | 382927.35 | 5720.12 | 8872.56 | 97.735 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 240445 | 176584 (0.73594) | 63358 | 503 | 244200.16 | 238667.14 | 5454.76 | 5533.01 | 97.734 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43198 | 34023 (0.79484) | 8782 | 393 | 48633.26 | 47687.04 | 1187.12 | 946.22 | 98.054 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32565 | 27527 (0.85663) | 4607 | 431 | 44690.71 | 44055.50 | 400.12 | 635.20 | 98.579 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 39569 | 35851 (0.91538) | 3314 | 404 | 49736.99 | 49411.33 | 0.10 | 325.65 | 99.345 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11601 | 10769 (0.98105) | 208 | 624 | 21356.39 | 21007.76 | 239.42 | 348.63 | 98.368 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2341410 | 951657 | 1376357 | 13396 | 540958.80 | 529573.42 | 204.16 | 11385.38 | 97.895 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 78958 | 38386 | 40284 | 288 | 1382841.85 | 1358797.13 | 22123.70 | 24044.71 | 98.261 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2420368 | 990043 | 1416641 | 13684 | 1923800.66 | 1888370.55 | 22327.86 | 35430.10 | 98.158 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35430.10370197 BTC (1.842%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1615.81567500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 33814.28802697 BTC (1.758%) Pending Liabilities: 0.63098455 BTC Final SD Profit: 33813.65704242 BTC (1.758%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7922239 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4444261 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 3372.1 : SatoshiDice MB: 1826.4 (54.2%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FPTffW.png&t=665&c=aDhCfHz4ShqiPw) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F2Y8vp.png&t=665&c=mjn2HXLwRtfQ_g)
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kidgorgeous
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January 07, 2013, 05:03:10 AM Last edit: January 07, 2013, 05:19:09 AM by kidgorgeous |
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Woah, Max bets have been raised. You can now bet BTC500 on alot of bets.... anyone want to loan me BTC10000? I swear I'll gamble it away and make things interesting in here for atleast a little bit.
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1KHxCRniFNmS7ChiPqaewmokuCABk2PRQn
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dooglus
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January 07, 2013, 08:58:40 PM |
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I made a post in the newbie forum's satoshidice thread, but didn't get any replies. Maybe this is a better place to post it? The thing is that the Martingale strategy with the 50% bets is basically identical to repeatedly playing the 85-97% winning odds bets with the amount of Bitcoin that you would risk at maximum with your Martingale strategy.
That's interesting. I looked into this, and found a surprising result: If I bet on "lessthan 8000", and keep increasing my bet each time I lose such that my overall profit when I win is constant, and commit to making 19 bets if necessary, I am effectively placing a large bet on "lessthan 60012.5": >>> (1-(1-8000/65536.0)**19)*65536 60012.49314412828
That's a little easier to win than "lessthan 60000", which pays out 1.071x. Since I'm placing multiple bets, and getting a slightly easier-to-win bet than "lessthan 60000", you would expect my payout in the event of a win to be a little less than 1.071x, but it's actually a little higher: win on turn 1 : bet = 18.34444122, spent = 18.34494122, win = 146.76222078, lose = 0.09122220, back = 0.00000000, profit = 128.41727956 (87.793% to lose all) win on turn 2 : bet = 20.95186542, spent = 39.29730664, win = 167.62263649, lose = 0.10425932, back = 0.09122220, profit = 128.41655205 (77.076% to lose all) win on turn 3 : bet = 23.92990113, spent = 63.22770777, win = 191.44808952, lose = 0.11914950, back = 0.19548152, profit = 128.41586327 (67.667% to lose all) win on turn 4 : bet = 27.33122595, spent = 90.55943371, win = 218.66002143, lose = 0.13615612, back = 0.31463102, profit = 128.41521874 (59.407% to lose all) win on turn 5 : bet = 31.21600495, spent = 121.77593866, win = 249.73977624, lose = 0.15558002, back = 0.45078714, profit = 128.41462472 (52.155% to lose all) win on turn 6 : bet = 35.65295485, spent = 157.42939351, win = 285.23711477, lose = 0.17776477, back = 0.60636716, profit = 128.41408842 (45.789% to lose all) win on turn 7 : bet = 40.72055959, spent = 198.15045311, win = 325.77993920, lose = 0.20310279, back = 0.78413193, profit = 128.41361802 (40.199% to lose all) win on turn 8 : bet = 46.50845857, spent = 244.65941167, win = 372.08539985, lose = 0.23204229, back = 0.98723472, profit = 128.41322290 (35.292% to lose all) win on turn 9 : bet = 53.11903225, spent = 297.77894393, win = 424.97258068, lose = 0.26509516, back = 1.21927701, profit = 128.41291376 (30.984% to lose all) win on turn 10 : bet = 60.66921318, spent = 358.44865710, win = 485.37698775, lose = 0.30284606, back = 1.48437217, profit = 128.41270282 (27.202% to lose all) win on turn 11 : bet = 69.29255432, spent = 427.74171142, win = 554.36709722, lose = 0.34596277, back = 1.78721823, profit = 128.41260403 (23.881% to lose all) win on turn 12 : bet = 79.14159147, spent = 506.88380289, win = 633.16325523, lose = 0.39520795, back = 2.13318100, profit = 128.41263334 (20.966% to lose all) win on turn 13 : bet = 90.39054140, spent = 597.27484429, win = 723.15926428, lose = 0.45145270, back = 2.52838895, profit = 128.41280894 (18.407% to lose all) win on turn 14 : bet = 103.23838355, spent = 700.51372784, win = 825.94703784, lose = 0.51569191, back = 2.97984165, profit = 128.41315165 (16.160% to lose all) win on turn 15 : bet = 117.91237969, spent = 818.42660753, win = 943.34475917, lose = 0.58906189, back = 3.49553356, profit = 128.41368520 (14.187% to lose all) win on turn 16 : bet = 134.67209391, spent = 953.09920144, win = 1077.42904272, lose = 0.67286046, back = 4.08459545, profit = 128.41443673 (12.455% to lose all) win on turn 17 : bet = 153.81398395, spent = 1106.91368539, win = 1230.57166670, lose = 0.76856991, back = 4.75745591, profit = 128.41543722 (10.935% to lose all) win on turn 18 : bet = 175.67664520, spent = 1282.59083059, win = 1405.48152682, lose = 0.87788322, back = 5.52602582, profit = 128.41672205 ( 9.600% to lose all) win on turn 19 : bet = 200.64679995, spent = 1483.23813054, win = 1605.25255315, lose = 1.00273399, back = 6.40390904, profit = 128.41833165 ( 8.428% to lose all)
I'm risking 1483.23813054 BTC in total, to win 128.41 BTC. That's a payout of 1.0866x: >>> 128.41833165 / 1483.23813054 + 1 1.0865797129981056
How can it be that committing to 19 "lessthan 8000" bets gets me a bigger chance of winning than placing a single "lessthan 60000" bet, but at the same time gets me a higher payout multiplier, as well as a bigger effective "max bet" (it's not possible to bet 1483 BTC on "lessthan 60000" directly, but using Martingale betting I can effectively do just that). tldr: Using Martingale betting it seems to be possible to effectively bet far more than the maximum bet, increase your chances of winning, and increase the payout multipler too - Win/Win/Win. Is there a flaw in my reasoning here?
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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January 07, 2013, 09:16:12 PM |
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txid:n block date game (lucky - result ) address stake payout profit cumulative profit ------------------ ------ ------------------ ------ ----- --------- ---------------------------------- ----- ------ ------ ----------------- 1c00068ac1bd8c9b:0 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <32768 (11058 - WIN ) 168Nt1JoLtPo97fgmBtXvfjKLPrHDxtkuV 0.84 1.64 0.80 0.80 41391737873fe6ee:1 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <32768 (33266 - LOSE ) 12nTHxQMem9ciUyWhsG8raAdDPn3azv4hJ 1.65 0.01 -1.64 -0.84 63b8b8f26d07e54a:0 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <48000 (54152 - LOSE ) 1KyQrWyqFwbaPkdWR1sVTCm82JFyhVyiNy 0.17 0.00 -0.17 -1.01 e19b23ea4533bb97:1 215621 13:07:57 Jan-07-13 <32768 ( 8309 - WIN ) 1Cao4JaCAuRKTP8kHh5fM8fUAQhWAknZnz 0.01 0.02 0.01 -1.00 ----- ----- ----- 2.67 1.67 -1.00
Total of 4 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-07 01:10pm (up to block 215621)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 63376 | 0 (0.00000) | 62254 | 1122 | 544.75 | 0.01 | 86.85 | 544.73 | 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3170 | 0 (0.00000) | 2678 | 492 | 46.58 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 46.58 | 0.010 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5140 | 1 (0.00021) | 4721 | 418 | 68.88 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -91.07 | 232.204 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7731 | 2 (0.00027) | 7309 | 420 | 111.74 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 95.65 | 14.399 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9474 | 1 (0.00011) | 9066 | 407 | 260.19 | 4.47 | 18.65 | 255.71 | 1.719 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9501 | 3 (0.00033) | 9109 | 389 | 539.13 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 235.62 | 56.295 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12360 | 12 (0.00100) | 11950 | 398 | 810.43 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 654.74 | 19.210 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15333 | 28 (0.00188) | 14878 | 427 | 1866.33 | 1318.94 | 48.31 | 547.38 | 70.670 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17241 | 73 (0.00433) | 16793 | 375 | 2175.16 | 3209.55 | 13.16 | -1034.38 | 147.555 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25231 | 186 (0.00757) | 24377 | 668 | 4295.89 | 3955.64 | 9.94 | 340.24 | 92.080 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 75074 | 1155 (0.01547) | 73482 | 437 | 19274.98 | 17129.98 | 1.91 | 2145.00 | 88.872 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19746 | 461 (0.02377) | 18937 | 348 | 6390.09 | 6445.80 | 15.06 | -55.71 | 100.872 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44358 | 1375 (0.03126) | 42607 | 376 | 20535.58 | 17740.06 | 9.31 | 2795.51 | 86.387 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22705 | 1031 (0.04624) | 21267 | 407 | 8376.04 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.36 | 112.612 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28456 | 1728 (0.06151) | 26367 | 361 | 6168.80 | 5678.93 | 31.25 | 489.87 | 92.059 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32580 | 3018 (0.09374) | 29178 | 384 | 13122.57 | 14678.81 | 7.11 | -1556.24 | 111.859 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134305 | 16482 (0.12312) | 117391 | 432 | 52245.49 | 50721.53 | 100.18 | 1523.95 | 97.083 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 51020 | 9396 (0.18570) | 41201 | 423 | 83822.02 | 82643.17 | 3314.63 | 1178.85 | 98.594 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 158709 | 38562 (0.24367) | 119691 | 456 | 176505.11 | 176728.29 | 1617.02 | -223.18 | 100.126 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 132216 | 48518 (0.36830) | 83218 | 480 | 172904.21 | 169639.95 | 1012.86 | 3264.26 | 98.112 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 832674 | 406055 (0.48844) | 425281 | 1338 | 555397.89 | 546582.98 | 2923.90 | 8814.90 | 98.413 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 361580 | 180122 (0.49923) | 180676 | 782 | 392612.70 | 383789.60 | 5720.12 | 8823.09 | 97.753 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 241194 | 177126 (0.73591) | 63565 | 503 | 244566.71 | 239023.65 | 5454.76 | 5543.06 | 97.734 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43314 | 34109 (0.79469) | 8812 | 393 | 48671.59 | 47728.63 | 1187.12 | 942.96 | 98.063 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32718 | 27649 (0.85635) | 4638 | 431 | 45288.57 | 44661.42 | 400.12 | 627.15 | 98.615 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 39899 | 36162 (0.91561) | 3333 | 404 | 49793.38 | 49463.51 | 0.10 | 329.86 | 99.338 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11630 | 10797 (0.98101) | 209 | 624 | 21377.65 | 21029.06 | 239.42 | 348.58 | 98.369 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2351645 | 955588 | 1382650 | 13407 | 543211.69 | 531759.31 | 205.07 | 11452.37 | 97.892 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 79090 | 38464 | 40338 | 288 | 1384560.90 | 1360482.41 | 22123.70 | 24078.48 | 98.261 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2430735 | 994052 | 1422988 | 13695 | 1927772.59 | 1892241.73 | 22328.77 | 35530.85 | 98.157 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 35530.85250800 BTC (1.843%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1626.18877500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 33904.66373300 BTC (1.759%) Pending Liabilities: -1.00139025 BTC Final SD Profit: 33905.66512325 BTC (1.759%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7959268 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4463481 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 3387.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 1834.3 (54.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FK4VRg.png&t=665&c=GzvVkC3ObF6Vmw) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fg0l0a.png&t=665&c=BFLYjayFXTTNsg)
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kidgorgeous
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January 08, 2013, 05:32:51 AM Last edit: January 08, 2013, 05:58:54 AM by kidgorgeous |
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Hmmm, what I think you're seeing is actually satoshidice fudging the payout multiplier and to make nice even numbers as well as you end up compounding some differences because the payout multiplier is rounded to three decimal places. I think maybe the less than 8000 bet should be 7.980x or something, but 8x looks a whole lot better. I thought that computing the expected values of each bet would illuminate this but it's just confusing me more. Since the house edge is supposed to be 1.9% all of the EV's should all be around 0.981 but they're not, so unless I'm missing something satoshidice is fudging some numbers, making their house edge a little fatter than they're letting on 0.976 since .005 is returned with losing bets. Then the question is why are there bets that seem to pay out more? Feel free to double check my math, also the odds of winning are only truncated for display but that math is based off of calculating the actual odds: Bet Odds Payout Expected Value 1 0.000015259 64000.000 0.9765625000 2 0.000030518 31981.573 0.9760001526 4 0.000061035 15990.789 0.9760003052 8 0.000122070 7995.397 0.9760006104 16 0.000244141 3997.701 0.9760012207 32 0.000488281 1998.853 0.9760024414 64 0.000976563 999.429 0.9760048828 128 0.001953125 499.717 0.9760097656 256 0.003906250 249.861 0.9760195313 512 0.007812500 124.933 0.9760390625 1000 0.015258789 63.968 0.9760742188 1500 0.022888184 42.647 0.9761123657 2000 0.030517578 31.987 0.9761657715 3000 0.045776367 21.326 0.9762268066 4000 0.061035156 15.996 0.9763183594 6000 0.091552734 10.666 0.9765014648 8000 0.122070313 8.000 0.9765625000 12000 0.183105469 5.335 0.9768676758 16000 0.244140625 4.003 0.9772949219 24000 0.366210938 2.670 0.9777832031 32000 0.488281250 2.004 0.9785156250 32768 0.500000000 1.957 0.9785000000 48000 0.732421875 1.338 0.9799804688 52000 0.793457031 1.235 0.9799194336 56000 0.854492188 1.147 0.9801025391 60000 0.915527344 1.071 0.9805297852 64000 0.976562500 1.004 0.9804687500
There is an interesting correlation though , the less than 60000 bet is the highest EV and less than 8000 is a bit lower with the less than 2 bet being the lowest. What happens with your strategy if you try a martingale on the less than 2 (ignoring mins and max bets for hypothetical purposes)?
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1KHxCRniFNmS7ChiPqaewmokuCABk2PRQn
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etotheipi (OP)
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January 08, 2013, 05:35:01 AM |
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I thought that computing the expected values of each bet would illuminate this but it's just confusing me more. Since the house edge is supposed to be 1.9% all of the EV's should all be around 0.981 but they're not, so unless I'm missing something satoshidice is fudging some numbers, making their house edge a little fatter than they're letting on.
I haven't had time to dig into the math, yet, but I wanted to point out that what you observed isn't fudging. You just haven't taken into account that you get 0.5% of your bet back even when you lose. Then your 0.976 payouts add up to 0.981.
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dooglus
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January 08, 2013, 07:36:06 PM |
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Hmmm, what I think you're seeing is actually satoshidice fudging the payout multiplier and to make nice even numbers
I wasn't using the published multipliers, because as you say they're rounded. I was calculating the actual multipliers using a formula which I derived like this: (lessthan * payout + (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / 65536 = 0.981 (multiply both sides by 65536) (lessthan * payout + (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) = 0.981 * 65536 (subtract (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005 from both sides) (lessthan * payout) = 0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005 (divide both sides by lessthan) so, payout = (0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / lessthan
If you compare the values that gives you for the payout multiplier with the published values, you find it's very close in every case except for the "lessthan 1", where the site is actually a little over generous (but that's deliberate - they state the hose edge is slightly smaller for that bet): >>> for (lessthan, actual) in [(64000, 1.004), (60000, 1.071), (56000, 1.147), (52000, 1.235), (48000, 1.338), (32768, 1.957), (32000, 2.004), (24000, 2.670), (16000, 4.003), (12000, 5.335), (8000, 8.000), (6000, 10.666), (4000, 15.996), (3000, 21.326), (2000, 31.987), (1500, 42.647), (1000, 63.968), (512, 124.933), (256, 249.861), (128, 499.717), (64, 999.429), (32, 1998.853), (16, 3997.701), (8, 7995.397), (4, 15990.789), (2, 31981.573), (1, 64000.000)]: ... print "lessthan %5d payout %9.3f (error %9.6f)" % (lessthan, actual, actual - (0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / lessthan) ... lessthan 64000 payout 1.004 (error -0.000424) lessthan 60000 payout 1.071 (error -0.000052) lessthan 56000 payout 1.147 (error -0.000199) lessthan 52000 payout 1.235 (error -0.000060) lessthan 48000 payout 1.338 (error 0.000435) lessthan 32768 payout 1.957 (error 0.000000) lessthan 32000 payout 2.004 (error 0.000152) lessthan 24000 payout 2.670 (error -0.000131) lessthan 16000 payout 4.003 (error 0.000304) lessthan 12000 payout 5.335 (error -0.000261) lessthan 8000 payout 8.000 (error -0.000392) lessthan 6000 payout 10.666 (error 0.000477) lessthan 4000 payout 15.996 (error 0.000216) lessthan 3000 payout 21.326 (error -0.000045) lessthan 2000 payout 31.987 (error 0.000432) lessthan 1500 payout 42.647 (error -0.000091) lessthan 1000 payout 63.968 (error -0.000136) lessthan 512 payout 124.933 (error 0.000000) lessthan 256 payout 249.861 (error 0.000000) lessthan 128 payout 499.717 (error 0.000000) lessthan 64 payout 999.429 (error 0.000000) lessthan 32 payout 1998.853 (error 0.000000) lessthan 16 payout 3997.701 (error 0.000000) lessthan 8 payout 7995.397 (error 0.000000) lessthan 4 payout 15990.789 (error 0.000000) lessthan 2 payout 31981.573 (error 0.000000) lessthan 1 payout 64000.000 (error 36.859000)
What happens with your strategy if you try a martingale on the less than 2 (ignoring mins and max bets for hypothetical purposes)?
Let's not ignore the mins and maxes. They're currently 0.01 and 0.1844 (though they seem to change every few seconds now). Here's a strategy to win 319 BTC betting on lessthan 2 in 91761 bets, starting at min bet and working up to max bet: win on turn 1 : bet = 0.01000000, spent = 0.01050000, win = 319.81523000, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000000, profit = 319.80473000 (99.997% to lose all) win on turn 2 : bet = 0.01000033, spent = 0.02100033, win = 319.82573031, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000001, profit = 319.80472999 (99.994% to lose all) win on turn 3 : bet = 0.01000066, spent = 0.03150098, win = 319.83623095, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000002, profit = 319.80472999 (99.991% to lose all) win on turn 4 : bet = 0.01000099, spent = 0.04200197, win = 319.84673192, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000003, profit = 319.80472998 (99.988% to lose all) win on turn 5 : bet = 0.01000131, spent = 0.05250328, win = 319.85723322, lose = 0.00000001, back = 0.00000004, profit = 319.80472998 (99.985% to lose all)
win on turn 91757 : bet = 0.18437485, spent = 5580.49620770, win = 5896.59719089, lose = 0.00042187, back = 3.70328891, profit = 319.80427210 ( 6.080% to lose all) win on turn 91758 : bet = 0.18438062, spent = 5580.68108832, win = 5896.78164963, lose = 0.00042190, back = 3.70371078, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all) win on turn 91759 : bet = 0.18438638, spent = 5580.86597470, win = 5896.96611411, lose = 0.00042193, back = 3.70413268, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all) win on turn 91760 : bet = 0.18439215, spent = 5581.05086685, win = 5897.15058433, lose = 0.00042196, back = 3.70455461, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all) win on turn 91761 : bet = 0.18439792, spent = 5581.23576477, win = 5897.33506029, lose = 0.00042198, back = 3.70497657, profit = 319.80427209 ( 6.079% to lose all)
It risks 5581.23576477 to win 319.80427209 and has a 6.079% chance of losing everything. That's a payout of 1.057x and has the same risk as "lessthan 61552" (if it existed): >>> 319.80427209 / 5581.23576477 + 1 1.0572999037433028 >>> 65536 * (1 - 6.079/100) 61552.06656
If satoshidice offered "lessthan 61552", they'd payout 1.044x on it: >>> lessthan = 65536 * (1 - 6.079/100); (0.981 * 65536 - (65536 - lessthan) * 0.005) / lessthan 1.04417121836437
So again it's better to martingale a series of high-multiplier bets than to play a single large low-multiplier bet. Why??
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dooglus
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January 08, 2013, 07:50:10 PM |
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Total of 28 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-08 11:42am (up to block 215756)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 63618 | 0 (0.00000) | 62496 | 1122 | 549.83 | 0.01 | 86.85 | 549.81 | 0.004 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3230 | 0 (0.00000) | 2738 | 492 | 47.26 | 0.00 | 16.23 | 47.26 | 0.010 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 5242 | 1 (0.00021) | 4823 | 418 | 70.03 | 159.96 | 8.45 | -89.92 | 228.401 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 7788 | 2 (0.00027) | 7366 | 420 | 112.31 | 16.09 | 10.02 | 96.22 | 14.326 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 9552 | 1 (0.00011) | 9144 | 407 | 267.35 | 4.49 | 18.65 | 262.85 | 1.681 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 9509 | 3 (0.00033) | 9117 | 389 | 539.44 | 303.50 | 1.36 | 235.93 | 56.263 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 12389 | 12 (0.00100) | 11979 | 398 | 810.72 | 155.68 | 55.70 | 655.03 | 19.203 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 15347 | 28 (0.00188) | 14892 | 427 | 1867.79 | 1318.94 | 48.31 | 548.84 | 70.615 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 17248 | 73 (0.00433) | 16800 | 375 | 2176.63 | 3209.55 | 13.16 | -1032.92 | 147.455 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 25255 | 186 (0.00756) | 24401 | 668 | 4296.39 | 3955.64 | 9.94 | 340.74 | 92.069 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 75148 | 1155 (0.01546) | 73556 | 437 | 19296.96 | 17130.07 | 1.91 | 2166.89 | 88.771 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 19754 | 461 (0.02376) | 18945 | 348 | 6392.27 | 6445.81 | 15.06 | -53.53 | 100.838 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 44400 | 1376 (0.03126) | 42648 | 376 | 20579.07 | 17740.59 | 9.31 | 2838.47 | 86.207 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22712 | 1031 (0.04622) | 21274 | 407 | 8376.23 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.16 | 112.609 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 28467 | 1728 (0.06148) | 26378 | 361 | 6173.72 | 5678.95 | 31.25 | 494.76 | 91.986 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 32637 | 3022 (0.09370) | 29231 | 384 | 13130.03 | 14681.40 | 7.11 | -1551.37 | 111.815 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 134407 | 16496 (0.12313) | 117479 | 432 | 52362.72 | 50904.08 | 100.18 | 1458.63 | 97.214 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 51163 | 9412 (0.18549) | 41328 | 423 | 84392.38 | 82709.33 | 3314.63 | 1683.04 | 98.006 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 159171 | 38673 (0.24366) | 120042 | 456 | 177874.34 | 177835.60 | 1617.02 | 38.73 | 99.978 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 132800 | 48722 (0.36821) | 83598 | 480 | 174919.57 | 172451.25 | 1012.86 | 2468.31 | 98.589 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 835135 | 407257 (0.48844) | 426540 | 1338 | 557610.42 | 548062.95 | 2923.90 | 9547.46 | 98.288 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 364002 | 181330 (0.49923) | 181890 | 782 | 394004.16 | 385119.70 | 5720.12 | 8884.45 | 97.745 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 242574 | 178144 (0.73592) | 63927 | 503 | 244853.15 | 239313.11 | 5454.76 | 5540.04 | 97.737 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 43449 | 34213 (0.79462) | 8843 | 393 | 48699.62 | 47756.76 | 1187.12 | 942.85 | 98.064 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 32910 | 27814 (0.85637) | 4665 | 431 | 45389.11 | 44762.89 | 400.12 | 626.22 | 98.620 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 40464 | 36686 (0.91578) | 3374 | 404 | 49891.53 | 49564.97 | 0.10 | 326.55 | 99.345 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 11680 | 10847 (0.98110) | 209 | 624 | 21386.33 | 21037.76 | 239.42 | 348.57 | 98.370 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2360751 | 960122 | 1387222 | 13407 | 545125.12 | 533553.42 | 205.07 | 11571.69 | 97.877 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 79300 | 38551 | 40461 | 288 | 1390944.36 | 1366198.21 | 22123.70 | 24746.15 | 98.221 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2440051 | 998673 | 1427683 | 13695 | 1936069.48 | 1899751.64 | 22328.77 | 36317.84 | 98.124 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 36317.84369285 BTC (1.876%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1635.60487500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 34682.23881785 BTC (1.791%) Pending Liabilities: 40.68659544 BTC Final SD Profit: 34641.55222241 BTC (1.789%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 7994821 : SatoshiDice Tx: 4480860 (56.0%) Blockchain MB: 3404.2 : SatoshiDice MB: 1841.5 (54.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fyt4av.png&t=665&c=_vunc7aIDuPYuQ) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FDNY3i.png&t=665&c=LelhmFrsE9rWKg)
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Bowjob
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January 08, 2013, 08:08:54 PM |
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I still find it hard to believe that some of the addresses, particularly Satoshi less than 3000 consistently lose all the time. The amount of money wagered shouldn't make a difference.. it still bothers me. I mean, if I scale it up with 750 BTC, you mean I could make some decent profits out it? Unfortunately, I can't afford to lose 10 grand so.. I can't test it for sure.
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It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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dooglus
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January 08, 2013, 08:45:16 PM |
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I still find it hard to believe that some of the addresses, particularly Satoshi less than 3000 consistently lose all the time. The amount of money wagered shouldn't make a difference.. it still bothers me. I mean, if I scale it up with 750 BTC, you mean I could make some decent profits out it? Unfortunately, I can't afford to lose 10 grand so.. I can't test it for sure.
I just went through the last 6 pages of this thread and pulled out all the 'lessthan 3000' lines from the reports: Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20511 | 934 (0.04645) | 19173 | 404 | 8154.32 | 9295.88 | 25.08 | -1141.55 | 113.999 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20515 | 934 (0.04644) | 19177 | 404 | 8154.89 | 9295.88 | 25.08 | -1140.98 | 113.991 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20560 | 937 (0.04649) | 19219 | 404 | 8156.33 | 9297.20 | 25.08 | -1140.86 | 113.988 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20791 | 949 (0.04655) | 19438 | 404 | 8164.30 | 9306.36 | 25.08 | -1142.06 | 113.989 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20898 | 950 (0.04636) | 19544 | 404 | 8167.00 | 9306.90 | 25.08 | -1139.89 | 113.957 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20917 | 951 (0.04636) | 19562 | 404 | 8167.47 | 9307.11 | 25.08 | -1139.64 | 113.953 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20959 | 954 (0.04641) | 19601 | 404 | 8168.57 | 9307.96 | 25.08 | -1139.38 | 113.948 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20988 | 956 (0.04644) | 19628 | 404 | 8168.97 | 9308.39 | 25.08 | -1139.41 | 113.948 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 20998 | 956 (0.04642) | 19638 | 404 | 8179.64 | 9308.44 | 25.08 | -1128.79 | 113.800 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21013 | 957 (0.04644) | 19651 | 405 | 8179.81 | 9308.65 | 25.08 | -1128.84 | 113.800 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21021 | 957 (0.04642) | 19659 | 405 | 8179.90 | 9308.65 | 25.08 | -1128.75 | 113.799 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21051 | 957 (0.04635) | 19689 | 405 | 8187.80 | 9308.68 | 25.08 | -1120.88 | 113.690 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21090 | 958 (0.04632) | 19726 | 406 | 8189.94 | 9311.03 | 25.08 | -1121.08 | 113.689 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21165 | 964 (0.04644) | 19795 | 406 | 8192.48 | 9314.22 | 25.08 | -1121.74 | 113.692 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21192 | 964 (0.04638) | 19822 | 406 | 8194.11 | 9314.23 | 25.08 | -1120.11 | 113.670 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21206 | 964 (0.04635) | 19835 | 407 | 8195.82 | 9314.23 | 25.08 | -1118.40 | 113.646 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21220 | 965 (0.04637) | 19848 | 407 | 8196.73 | 9316.36 | 25.08 | -1119.63 | 113.660 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 21406 | 972 (0.04629) | 20027 | 407 | 8206.00 | 9317.88 | 25.08 | -1111.88 | 113.550 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22382 | 1021 (0.04646) | 20954 | 407 | 8219.26 | 9328.96 | 25.08 | -1109.69 | 113.501 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22387 | 1022 (0.04650) | 20958 | 407 | 8219.41 | 9329.17 | 25.08 | -1109.75 | 113.502 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22402 | 1023 (0.04651) | 20972 | 407 | 8219.68 | 9329.38 | 25.08 | -1109.70 | 113.501 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22558 | 1028 (0.04641) | 21123 | 407 | 8353.23 | 9416.33 | 25.08 | -1063.09 | 112.727 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22568 | 1028 (0.04639) | 21133 | 407 | 8353.56 | 9416.33 | 25.08 | -1062.76 | 112.722 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22660 | 1030 (0.04629) | 21223 | 407 | 8364.31 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1053.11 | 112.591 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22672 | 1030 (0.04626) | 21235 | 407 | 8364.65 | 9417.42 | 25.08 | -1052.77 | 112.586 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22695 | 1031 (0.04626) | 21257 | 407 | 8375.60 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.79 | 112.618 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22705 | 1031 (0.04624) | 21267 | 407 | 8376.04 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.36 | 112.612 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 22712 | 1031 (0.04622) | 21274 | 407 | 8376.23 | 9432.40 | 25.08 | -1056.16 | 112.609
That covers the last 4 weeks. 4 weeks ago the house was 1141.55 BTC down on "lessthan 3000" overall. Now they're only 1056.16 BTC down on the same bet. That means the house has won around 100 BTC on "lessthan 3000" in the last 4 weeks. If you look at the profit column, you'll see the negative number is pretty consistently getting less negative day by day. That means the house is consistently winning on lessthan 3000. They just had a bad run of large bets some months ago and didn't recover from it yet.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 08, 2013, 09:02:32 PM |
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So again it's better to martingale a series of high-multiplier bets than to play a single large low-multiplier bet.
Why??
I think I found the reason: I have to choose between two seeming equivalent betting strategies: a) I commit to betting 1, 2, 4 on a bet that pays out 2x with a 1/2 probability of winning each time, and that the house takes 2% of everything I stake as a service charge. I'm committed to risking up to 7 to win 1. b) I bet the 7 all at once on a bet that pays out (8/7)x and which has a 7/8 probability of winning. Again, the house takes its 2% service charge of all stakes. In both cases I risk 7 to win 1. In both cases I have a 1/8 probability of losing 7 chips. The difference is in the service charge. In a) there's a good (75%) chance that I won't need to bet the 4, because either the 1 or the 2 will win. So I'll be paying less service charge. In b) I pay 2% of the full 7 chips. There's no service charge at satoshidice, but there's a house edge, which is effectively the same thing. Breaking a single low-multiplier high-stake bet up into a martingale series of high-multiplier low-stake bets means on average I'll be staking less to achieve the same result. So while it's true that martingale betting can't reduce the house edge, it's also true that martingale betting can be used to give a higher expected return than placing a single large equivalent bet by reducing the average amount that needs to be staked to achieve the desired return.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Bugpowder
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
January 09, 2013, 05:57:08 AM |
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Looking good for S.DICE... Details 2013-01-09 01:51:31 lessthan 16000 de2012c9 3148068f 1HbHbFK CONFIRMED 435.00000000 LOSE 2.17450000 41970 Details 2013-01-09 01:50:43 lessthan 16000 d463f567 faa9a2d8 19LQ1zn CONFIRMED 435.00000000 LOSE 2.17450000 53146 Details 2013-01-09 01:49:33 lessthan 16000 f3d916d3 c4273fff 1Bw9MTr CONFIRMED 435.00000000 LOSE 2.17450000 52002 Details 2013-01-09 01:48:04 lessthan 16000 881eda89 5a2d111b 1Fh2Rjd CONFIRMED 327.68000000 LOSE 1.63790000 39752 Details 2013-01-09 01:47:12 lessthan 16000 8a50052a dcd5405b 19nKhcW CONFIRMED 163.84000000 LOSE 0.81870000 16205 Details 2013-01-09 01:46:03 lessthan 16000 b7ed8b5e 1306b724 19nKhcW CONFIRMED 81.92000000 LOSE 0.40910000 24206 OUCH... This is the tail end of a Martingale that started on 0.01BTC, doubling each loss, and ending very very badly. ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif)
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