dooglus
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March 11, 2013, 04:53:28 AM |
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Is it possible paste a list of all bets, rather than the average size per time period (I'm guessing it's per block)?
I don't have a list of all bets but can generate it. OK, here it is. http://dooglus.com/allbets.txt.bz2It's 4.8MB compressed, 69.5 MB uncompressed, one bet per line. Time (seconds since 1970) and bet size (in satoshis): 1362966232 40000000 1335029321 2000000 1335029321 500000000 [...] 1362966232 40000000 1362966232 12300000 1362966232 150000000 The timestamp is the timestamp of the block which paid the bet out.
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solex
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March 11, 2013, 05:50:52 AM Last edit: March 11, 2013, 08:05:02 AM by solex |
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dooglus, quick q if you would oblige...
Two days ago Erik implemented a change which returns 0.5% on a losing bet. The significant benefit of this to Bitcoin is that unspendable bitdust utxo is nearly eliminated. Only bets of <=0.06 BTC create such outputs.
For information can you advise what percentage of SD bets are 0.06 or less? (the last two days is probably fine enough for a sampling).
Edit. Don't bother. I saw your file above and sampled that and about 54% of recent bets are 0.06 or less. Wow. Most of these are really small! In any case, an fx rate of $200 will mean that all utxo since the change will be spendable. This is not a permanent problem then...
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BTCdude007
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March 11, 2013, 06:12:50 AM |
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Good to see that SD is break-even for the month. Hopefully, the rest of the month produces dividends.
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smickles
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March 11, 2013, 06:32:12 AM |
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Thanks for keeping it up Dooglus, the charts and the level-headed responses. I sent a little bit your way again ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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dooglus
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March 11, 2013, 10:46:11 AM |
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Two days ago Erik implemented a change which returns 0.5% on a losing bet. The significant benefit of this to Bitcoin is that unspendable bitdust utxo is nearly eliminated. Only bets of <=0.06 BTC create such outputs.
Do you have a reference for that? I must have missed it. I thought losing bets have always paid out half a percent. Here's what I think it probably my biggest ever losing SD bet: http://blockchain.info/tx-index/12114983I bet 6 BTC and got 0.03 back - that's 0.5%. Edit: my bad - I once lost 31 BTC and got 0.155 BTC back, but still it was 0.5%. So I guess I don't know what has changed... Thanks for keeping it up Dooglus, the charts and the level-headed responses. I sent a little bit your way again ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Thank you very much. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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organofcorti
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March 11, 2013, 01:41:24 PM |
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Is it possible paste a list of all bets, rather than the average size per time period (I'm guessing it's per block)?
I don't have a list of all bets but can generate it. OK, here it is. http://dooglus.com/allbets.txt.bz2Thanks! Weekly mean and + 1 sigmaYou already posted some of these and I'm including this one as a comparison to the next plots. Here are a couple of other ways to visualise the data. Boxplots weren't very useful since a large portion of the large bets were considered "outliers". Violin plots.If you haven't come across a violin plot before, think of it as a vertical density plot, width being proportional to number of bets for a particular amount of btc. The advantge of this type of plot is that it also allows easy comparison of limits (compared to a density plot) and provides a more intuitive understanding of the results than traditional boxplots. The plot shows clearly that bettors prefer even amounts to bet - for example 0.01 btc, 0.02 btc, 0.05 btc, 0.1 btc, 0.2 btc etc, and that most are probably not martingaling much lately. Percentile plots.These are similar to the mean and sd plot, instead showing percentiles. For those not familiar, if you place the bests in order of size, the nth percentile bet is the value of the bet below which n percent of bet values fall. The 50th percentile bet is the median bet. Are any of these good visualisation tools for most readers? If so, let me know. Thanks for the data, dooglus. That was interesting. Edit: These plots can be done on a much shorter timescale, such as the ones you posted earlier.
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wisard
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March 11, 2013, 02:05:42 PM |
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Thank you. The violin plot is pretty cool.
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Buy me a beer or 2 if you enjoy my posts. BTC address: 1976Nb5u1T2haoxSZnJgHaemHYYtgKmTsU
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ThickAsThieves
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March 11, 2013, 03:34:05 PM |
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So based on the plots, would it be a fair assessment to say that SDICE should consider lowering the minimum bid to increase revenue?
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organofcorti
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March 11, 2013, 03:40:52 PM |
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So based on the plots, would it be a fair assessment to say that SDICE should consider lowering the minimum bid to increase revenue?
No, I don't think so. In this case large number of tiny bets doesn't equal a small number of extremely large bets. The large bets might only make up a small percentage of bets, but they are the largest proportion of overall bet value.
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dooglus
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March 11, 2013, 08:01:25 PM |
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Violin plots. If you haven't come across a violin plot before, think of it as a vertical density plot, width being proportional to number of bets for a particular amount of btc. The advantge of this type of plot is that it also allows easy comparison of limits (compared to a density plot) and provides a more intuitive understanding of the results than traditional boxplots. The plot shows clearly that bettors prefer even amounts to bet - for example 0.01 btc, 0.02 btc, 0.05 btc, 0.1 btc, 0.2 btc etc, and that most are probably not martingaling much lately.
That's cool. I should probably mention for completeness than my data doesn't include any bets that were refunded for being too big or too small. That's why you see nothing at all less than 0.01 BTC in 2013. I'm wondering if it would be interesting to plot a violin plot where the thickness indicates the volume (in BTC) bet at each price rather than the number of bets at that price. Then we'd be able to see that large bets might only make up a small percentage of bets, but they are the largest proportion of overall bet value for ourselves. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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dooglus
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March 11, 2013, 08:19:40 PM |
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New highs! Total of 48 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Mar-11 01:15pm (up to block 225420)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 98490 | 1 (0.00001) | 96941 | 1548 | 1137.79 | 1280.17 | 123.19 | -142.37 | 112.513 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5168 | 0 (0.00000) | 4645 | 523 | 87.68 | 0.02 | 20.45 | 87.65 | 0.032 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7621 | 1 (0.00014) | 7167 | 453 | 115.21 | 160.00 | 12.83 | -44.78 | 138.866 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 11927 | 5 (0.00044) | 11463 | 459 | 224.05 | 431.97 | 10.07 | -207.92 | 192.800 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 13566 | 1 (0.00008) | 13127 | 438 | 455.75 | 4.85 | 22.06 | 450.89 | 1.066 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 17254 | 6 (0.00036) | 16848 | 400 | 941.60 | 813.91 | 1.38 | 127.68 | 86.439 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 18540 | 19 (0.00105) | 18058 | 463 | 1353.85 | 451.97 | 55.81 | 901.88 | 33.384 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19480 | 37 (0.00195) | 18986 | 457 | 2332.33 | 1557.65 | 48.39 | 774.67 | 66.785 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24201 | 105 (0.00441) | 23712 | 384 | 4578.00 | 7357.27 | 13.20 | -2779.26 | 160.709 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 33219 | 266 (0.00818) | 32254 | 699 | 5694.27 | 5648.50 | 10.02 | 45.77 | 99.196 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 116838 | 1775 (0.01526) | 114546 | 517 | 36342.08 | 31626.90 | 2.06 | 4715.17 | 87.026 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24479 | 567 (0.02350) | 23556 | 356 | 7651.70 | 8160.42 | 15.09 | -508.71 | 106.648 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 73453 | 2279 (0.03120) | 70776 | 398 | 37295.68 | 33638.60 | 9.37 | 3657.07 | 90.194 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28615 | 1297 (0.04603) | 26881 | 437 | 9194.02 | 10002.07 | 25.18 | -808.04 | 108.789 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34425 | 2098 (0.06164) | 31936 | 391 | 7610.48 | 7419.65 | 31.35 | 190.83 | 97.493 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 46530 | 4253 (0.09228) | 41837 | 440 | 15975.14 | 17711.64 | 7.27 | -1736.49 | 110.870 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 180548 | 22108 (0.12279) | 157935 | 505 | 90960.97 | 89585.15 | 100.46 | 1375.81 | 98.487 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 92714 | 16905 (0.18339) | 75276 | 533 | 169888.80 | 171507.93 | 3314.88 | -1619.13 | 100.953 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 240584 | 58572 (0.24402) | 181456 | 556 | 365294.35 | 351490.89 | 2322.41 | 13803.46 | 96.221 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 241822 | 88780 (0.36802) | 152457 | 585 | 582461.96 | 574219.91 | 1013.23 | 8242.04 | 98.585 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1109711 | 540813 (0.48806) | 567264 | 1634 | 869074.47 | 851440.31 | 2924.92 | 17634.16 | 97.971 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 596916 | 297754 (0.49975) | 298049 | 1113 | 658368.77 | 642306.17 | 6521.16 | 16062.60 | 97.560 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 336630 | 246989 (0.73508) | 89013 | 628 | 297651.44 | 290236.94 | 5455.26 | 7414.49 | 97.509 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 74000 | 58318 (0.79360) | 15167 | 515 | 61028.28 | 59670.36 | 1187.54 | 1357.91 | 97.775 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 61794 | 52443 (0.85656) | 8782 | 569 | 77033.81 | 76413.99 | 400.53 | 619.82 | 99.195 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 95203 | 86724 (0.91615) | 7937 | 542 | 70370.78 | 69576.47 | 0.49 | 794.31 | 98.871 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 16496 | 15095 (0.97962) | 314 | 1087 | 23987.67 | 23575.20 | 240.18 | 412.46 | 98.280 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3506070 | 1444956 | 2044776 | 16338 | 764128.50 | 749718.49 | 260.20 | 14410.00 | 98.114 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 114154 | 52255 | 61607 | 292 | 2632982.57 | 2576570.54 | 23628.70 | 56412.02 | 97.857 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 3620224 | 1497211 | 2106383 | 16630 | 3397111.07 | 3326289.03 | 23888.90 | 70822.03 | 97.915 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 70822.03769213 BTC (2.085%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 2821.04347500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 68000.99421713 BTC (2.002%) Pending Liabilities: 113.38859173 BTC Final SD Profit: 67887.60562540 BTC (1.998%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 11375123 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6667948 (58.6%) Blockchain MB: 4882.1 : SatoshiDice MB: 2740.3 (56.1%) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FU7aVmFJ.png&t=665&c=cyc2tXxiULAe2g) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F1yHGUh5.png&t=665&c=QLw6uFuhYRXk4g)
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solex
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March 11, 2013, 08:52:00 PM |
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Two days ago Erik implemented a change which returns 0.5% on a losing bet. The significant benefit of this to Bitcoin is that unspendable bitdust utxo is nearly eliminated. Only bets of <=0.06 BTC create such outputs.
Do you have a reference for that? I must have missed it. I thought losing bets have always paid out half a percent. Here's what I think it probably my biggest ever losing SD bet: http://blockchain.info/tx-index/12114983I bet 6 BTC and got 0.03 back - that's 0.5%. Edit: my bad - I once lost 31 BTC and got 0.155 BTC back, but still it was 0.5%. So I guess I don't know what has changed... Thanks for keeping it up Dooglus, the charts and the level-headed responses. I sent a little bit your way again ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Thank you very much. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Interesting! My mistake then. I took this at face value: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=150493.msg1603935#msg1603935because I kept seeing comments like this beforehand: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=150405.msg1601927#msg1601927There has been some SD change because those excellent violin plots show clearly that the min bet size increased 10x at the end of 2012.
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dooglus
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March 11, 2013, 11:21:30 PM |
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OK, I get it now. They always paid 0.5% for a losing bet, but they used to subtract the transaction fee of 0.0005 (50k satoshis) from that, often leaving less than 0, so they'd send you a token 1 satoshi. Now they don't subtract the transaction fee, so the min bet (0.01) pays out the full 0.5% when you lose, which is 0.00005000 BTC, or 5k satoshis. That will result in less dust spam, or at least more easily spendable dust spam.
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solex
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March 11, 2013, 11:26:33 PM |
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OK, I get it now. They always paid 0.5% for a losing bet, but they used to subtract the transaction fee of 0.0005 (50k satoshis) from that, often leaving less than 0, so they'd send you a token 1 satoshi. Now they don't subtract the transaction fee, so the min bet (0.01) pays out the full 0.5% when you lose, which is 0.00005000 BTC, or 5k satoshis. That will result in less dust spam, or at least more easily spendable dust spam. Aha. The mist clears in this jungle.
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Dabs
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March 12, 2013, 01:12:22 AM |
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I don't know if its in this thread anywhere, but is there data available that shows number of consecutive wins or losses, basically streaks? For example, in the 50% bet, what is the longest winning and losing streak? It's like heads or tails, but with the number of bets already made, has there been anything similar to the Monte Carlo gambler's fallacy of 26 consecutive losses?
Of course, you can't see this for each person unless one person uses the same address all the time (like from Bitcoin Spinner.)
I'm interested in all the other categories as well, not just the 50%. I'm curious what is the longest losing streak in the higher win odds (better than 50%) as it won't make much sense in the lower odds since the less than 1 (0.0015%) is obviously going to have 50,000+ consecutive losses.
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zebedee
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March 12, 2013, 06:44:07 AM |
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In any case, an fx rate of $200 will mean that all utxo since the change will be spendable. This is not a permanent problem then...
They were always spendable, apart from to those who wished to make a mountain out of a molehill.
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solex
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March 12, 2013, 06:50:01 AM |
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In any case, an fx rate of $200 will mean that all utxo since the change will be spendable. This is not a permanent problem then...
They were always spendable, apart from to those who wished to make a mountain out of a molehill. I believe you! I need to learn more about bitcoin tx minutiae before I can begin to argue this ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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organofcorti
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March 12, 2013, 06:50:18 AM |
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I don't know if its in this thread anywhere, but is there data available that shows number of consecutive wins or losses, basically streaks? For example, in the 50% bet, what is the longest winning and losing streak? It's like heads or tails, but with the number of bets already made, has there been anything similar to the Monte Carlo gambler's fallacy of 26 consecutive losses?
Of course, you can't see this for each person unless one person uses the same address all the time (like from Bitcoin Spinner.)
I'm interested in all the other categories as well, not just the 50%. I'm curious what is the longest losing streak in the higher win odds (better than 50%) as it won't make much sense in the lower odds since the less than 1 (0.0015%) is obviously going to have 50,000+ consecutive losses.
We discussed this earlier in the thread, but theoretically: 1. Let total number of times you want to make a bet on this game = "bets". 2. p is probability of winning the game you're playing, q is the probability of losing the same game, q = 1 - p 3. Then expected losses in a row = -log(bets*p + 1)/log(q)
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.
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March 12, 2013, 07:09:52 AM |
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I'm wondering if it would be interesting to plot a violin plot where the thickness indicates the volume (in BTC) bet at each price rather than the number of bets at that price. Then we'd be able to see that large bets might only make up a small percentage of bets, but they are the largest proportion of overall bet value for ourselves. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I was thinking the same thing last night but it was getting late, so I left it until now. The first plot below shows to volume, and the monthly volumes can be directly compared to each other (March is low because it's only one third the way through). However it doesn't really show much detail for most months which had low volumes compared to January 2013. The second plot makes the maximum width equal for each month, meaning the volume is presented as a proportion of the total monthly volume. This means that months cannot be compared directly, but much more detail is presented for any given month. Three things are clear: 1. The number and size of Bets on SatoshiDice are increasing; 2. People prefer to bet "round numbers" of btc - this is the reason for the "wiggliness" of the plots. 3. The maximum bet size often produces the most monthly volume; the largest portion of most monthly volumes are due to bets 1btc or greater. Also, from these plots I'd expect the month with the greatest volume to be January 2013, followed by December 2012 and then February 2013. I also reckon I could sell these plots to psychiatrists as Rorshach ink blots.
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StarenseN
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March 12, 2013, 08:27:06 AM Last edit: March 12, 2013, 08:56:37 AM by StarenseN |
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I'm wondering if it would be interesting to plot a violin plot where the thickness indicates the volume (in BTC) bet at each price rather than the number of bets at that price. Then we'd be able to see that large bets might only make up a small percentage of bets, but they are the largest proportion of overall bet value for ourselves. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I was thinking the same thing last night but it was getting late, so I left it until now. The first plot below shows to volume, and the monthly volumes can be directly compared to each other (March is low because it's only one third the way through). However it doesn't really show much detail for most months which had low volumes compared to January 2013. The second plot makes the maximum width equal for each month, meaning the volume is presented as a proportion of the total monthly volume. This means that months cannot be compared directly, but much more detail is presented for any given month. Three things are clear: 1. The number and size of Bets on SatoshiDice are increasing; 2. People prefer to bet "round numbers" of btc - this is the reason for the "wiggliness" of the plots. 3. The maximum bet size often produces the most monthly volume; the largest portion of most monthly volumes are due to bets 1btc or greater. Also, from these plots I'd expect the month with the greatest volume to be January 2013, followed by December 2012 and then February 2013. I also reckon I could sell these plots to psychiatrists as Rorshach ink blots. That's 0.5 BTC tip my dear (I've sent the same to dooglus). Thanks a lot for your contribution!
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