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Author Topic: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"  (Read 108051 times)
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August 05, 2012, 01:19:12 AM
 #361

But, failing that, I'm actually not sure why he hasn't called game over already. These weekly payouts certainly bite into his stash, and, as a rough, statistical guess, they are growing exponentially.

Because maybe, just maybe, he's legit?

nope.  simple maths.  When Pirate decides new investment this week < interest payouts, it's game over.  I agree that timing this ponzi tough because of the culture of Ponzi-acceptance on this board, hell Pirate might just find another 3000 BTC worth of you guys this week and has been faking the blockchain interest payments the whole time to look 2x or 5x or 10x bigger than he is & was, and for all we know it could go on another 7 or 8 weeks.  Seems highly unlikely after looking at some of the interest number going parabolic, which should be about when it goes boom.

Its pretty gut-wrenching reading anything involving maths by you simply because I know from your past poker book attempts that you were more inclined towards feel-poker than math-poker which just shows that you are not up to the mathematical tasks in life and prefer the gambling approach of feel and hope.

Keep at it, I need my daily feed of feel good micon-juice in the same way people watch Jerry Springer.

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August 05, 2012, 02:46:06 AM
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nope.  simple maths.  When Pirate decides new investment this week < interest payouts, it's game over.  I agree that timing this ponzi tough because of the culture of Ponzi-acceptance on this board, hell Pirate might just find another 3000 BTC worth of you guys this week and has been faking the blockchain interest payments the whole time to look 2x or 5x or 10x bigger than he is & was, and for all we know it could go on another 7 or 8 weeks.  Seems highly unlikely after looking at some of the interest number going parabolic, which should be about when it goes boom.

Its pretty gut-wrenching reading anything involving maths by you simply because I know from your past poker book attempts that you were more inclined towards feel-poker than math-poker which just shows that you are not up to the mathematical tasks in life and prefer the gambling approach of feel and hope.

Keep at it, I need my daily feed of feel good micon-juice in the same way people watch Jerry Springer.
Then why don't you start selling BTCST CDS at 8%? I'd give it a run.

You can have a go at someone for past losses due to gambling, but from an outside perspective here's how this looks:

1-Nobody who is actually making >7% a week on here would keep issuing such a huge amount of extra debt. Why on earth would you finance yourself at 3400% APR when there would be plenty of demand even in the BTC world for an annual rate one-twentieth of that?

2-The market is not responding to trades that would make up 30000+ BTC/week in profit. I mean shit, if you perfectly timed literally every market movement on Gox you wouldn't make that, and especially in the environment of the past few weeks you'd be making a USD profit, not a BTC one. Pirate is not the only big mover in these markets either, so if the whole volume of our largest exchange wouldn't support the transactions required to keep him going what would?

3-Every time a thread like this gets opened, a dozen retailers of pirate investment schemes turn up and try to bury it. I know it's easy to not ask too many questions when you're making a nice little cut off the side - hell, Bernie Madoff gave his feeder funds about 90% of everything he ever took in fees, but this isn't a party that can go on for much longer. It's grown to the size now where I really do think we're approaching the limits of what should even be considered possible. So, last week's interest payment was 26000BTC. Seeing the amount that's going in and the amount that's compounding this week should be more like 30k. Do tell, where has BTCST made over 30k in profits this week? This isn't a big market, and a player that big should make some serious waves when they move their weight around, which they'd have to do a lot of to bring in that kind of cash each week.

4-Why pay 7%? If the business model wasn't just "bring in more deposits", you could find finance on these forums at 2% a week. Even at that level it would be tough for an operation as large as this one to be profitable, so why? Is Pirate some kind of philanthropist, giving back over a million dollars in interest every month for no good reason at all? I mean really?

People lose their shirts in the markets when they support things that don't obey basic fundamentals.
Just saying.
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August 05, 2012, 03:02:36 AM
 #363


nope.  simple maths.  When Pirate decides new investment this week < interest payouts, it's game over.  I agree that timing this ponzi tough because of the culture of Ponzi-acceptance on this board, hell Pirate might just find another 3000 BTC worth of you guys this week and has been faking the blockchain interest payments the whole time to look 2x or 5x or 10x bigger than he is & was, and for all we know it could go on another 7 or 8 weeks.  Seems highly unlikely after looking at some of the interest number going parabolic, which should be about when it goes boom.

Its pretty gut-wrenching reading anything involving maths by you simply because I know from your past poker book attempts that you were more inclined towards feel-poker than math-poker which just shows that you are not up to the mathematical tasks in life and prefer the gambling approach of feel and hope.

Keep at it, I need my daily feed of feel good micon-juice in the same way people watch Jerry Springer.
Then why don't you start selling BTCST CDS at 8%? I'd give it a run.

You can have a go at someone for past losses due to gambling, but from an outside perspective here's how this looks:

1-Nobody who is actually making >7% a week on here would keep issuing such a huge amount of extra debt. Why on earth would you finance yourself at 3400% APR when there would be plenty of demand even in the BTC world for an annual rate one-twentieth of that?

2-The market is not responding to trades that would make up 30000+ BTC/week in profit. I mean shit, if you perfectly timed literally every market movement on Gox you wouldn't make that, and especially in the environment of the past few weeks you'd be making a USD profit, not a BTC one. Pirate is not the only big mover in these markets either, so if the whole volume of our largest exchange wouldn't support the transactions required to keep him going what would?

3-Every time a thread like this gets opened, a dozen retailers of pirate investment schemes turn up and try to bury it. I know it's easy to not ask too many questions when you're making a nice little cut off the side - hell, Bernie Madoff gave his feeder funds about 90% of everything he ever took in fees, but this isn't a party that can go on for much longer. It's grown to the size now where I really do think we're approaching the limits of what should even be considered possible. So, last week's interest payment was 26000BTC. Seeing the amount that's going in and the amount that's compounding this week should be more like 30k. Do tell, where has BTCST made over 30k in profits this week? This isn't a big market, and a player that big should make some serious waves when they move their weight around, which they'd have to do a lot of to bring in that kind of cash each week.

4-Why pay 7%? If the business model wasn't just "bring in more deposits", you could find finance on these forums at 2% a week. Even at that level it would be tough for an operation as large as this one to be profitable, so why? Is Pirate some kind of philanthropist, giving back over a million dollars in interest every month for no good reason at all? I mean really?

People lose their shirts in the markets when they support things that don't obey basic fundamentals.
Just saying.

Let me give you a short answer relating to the common perception of fundamentals, "The Internet wasnt going to be used much" , "Not alot of people would require a personal computer" , say what you want but disruptive markets tend to be seen as something thats not plausible until they surprise enough to be noticed.

You are also working on the assumption that pirate guaranteed interest permanently, he can decide tomorrow that its over and send all due BTC out. Bernie promised returns at x% indefinitely, its not even close to the same thing.

Interest payment 26000BTC ? Nice you are also in the speculation camp who feel 100% certain their non-facts of what is included at each payment is definitely interest only which is seriously laughable. These payments do not correlate to what they speculate it must be be and now it seems you use this same false information as your evidence.

Ive never said I know exactly what pirate is doing nor that he only makes it from exchange trading and pirate also never said he only makes his margins on exchanging in fact that was the last bit of info he gave about what hes doing and it wasnt at all his main area.

...In the land of the stale, the man with one share is king... >> Clipse

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August 05, 2012, 03:09:46 AM
 #364

Let me give you a short answer relating to the common perception of fundamentals, "The Internet wasnt going to be used much" , "Not alot of people would require a personal computer" , say what you want but disruptive markets tend to be seen as something thats not plausible until they surprise enough to be noticed.

You are also working on the assumption that pirate guaranteed interest permanently, he can decide tomorrow that its over and send all due BTC out. Bernie promised returns at x% indefinitely, its not even close to the same thing.
Yeah, I figured you weren't going to bother trying to answer any of my points.

Oh, and Bernie didn't promise shit, he just made up a number every month and made it positive 98% of the time.
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August 05, 2012, 09:17:54 AM
 #365

Let me give you a short answer relating to the common perception of fundamentals, "The Internet wasnt going to be used much" , "Not alot of people would require a personal computer" , say what you want but disruptive markets tend to be seen as something thats not plausible until they surprise enough to be noticed.

You are also working on the assumption that pirate guaranteed interest permanently, he can decide tomorrow that its over and send all due BTC out. Bernie promised returns at x% indefinitely, its not even close to the same thing.
Yeah, I figured you weren't going to bother trying to answer any of my points.

Oh, and Bernie didn't promise shit, he just made up a number every month and made it positive 98% of the time.

Did you have a stroke when you asked me questions and then I answered that which I had answers for ? Or was it some other monkey typing at that time ?

If you knew what I would answer, why ask me ?

PS. Bernie guaranteed interest above certain percentage thats why people kept reinvesting since those percentages kept on growing and looks more and more profitable for investors. Bernie also never stated that his investment fund would ever stop but then again you arnt looking for answers to why pirate isnt a ponzi and more in the direction why it is a ponzi.

...In the land of the stale, the man with one share is king... >> Clipse

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August 05, 2012, 11:43:54 AM
 #366

That's the problem with simple maths.  You end up having to use more 'unsimple' maths eventually.  Even basic interest will involve exponents.

I think this is the main point here. Anyone who really understands the exponential function and looked at BS&T growth should see the problem. The upcoming "change" does not seem to stop the exponential debt growth, even though it is breaking sanity checks by the day.

A legitimate scenario, even if it were possible, should see increasing forced withdrawals, massive interest cuts or both by now. Reality, however, sees bonus payments for people who don't withdraw too much. I would label the current process "final departure from reality".
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August 05, 2012, 11:45:10 AM
 #367

That's the problem with simple maths.  You end up having to use more 'unsimple' maths eventually.  Even basic interest will involve exponents.

I think this is the main point here. Anyone who really understands the exponential function and looked at BS&T growth should see the problem. The upcoming "change" does not seem to stop the exponential debt growth, even though it is breaking sanity checks by the day.

A legitimate scenario, even if it were possible, should see increasing forced withdrawals, massive interest cuts or both by now. Reality, however, sees bonus payments for people who don't withdraw too much. I would label the current process "final departure from reality".
Those bonus payments also require users do not deposit too much per time frame. Smiley

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August 05, 2012, 11:51:44 AM
 #368

Those bonus payments also require users do not deposit too much per time frame. Smiley

Interesting -- do they not allow compounding either? Remember that compounding interest is the primary source of supposed coins in there by now, so that would be an important question.

With Bitcoinmax, it's simple to deposit at any time though. So I doubt the rule reduces inflow much.
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August 05, 2012, 12:00:24 PM
 #369

Those bonus payments also require users do not deposit too much per time frame. Smiley

Interesting -- do they not allow compounding either? Remember that compounding interest is the primary source of supposed coins in there by now, so that would be an important question.

Bitcoinmax seems to have lots of deposits and get a bonus regardless though, so the rule wouldn't really stop people from depositing more.
If you take the top public tier rate instead of the unpublished rate, you are not subject to the limits, AFAIK. I'm not familiar with BitcoinMax, so if they provide <7%/wk, it may be beneficial for them/him/whoever to take on more deposits and take the slightly lower max published rate. It could be possible that Pirate only states you can't deposit more than the limit, but then waives that requirement -- I wouldn't know. I also don't know whether or not Pirate allows compounding on "bonus" accounts.

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August 05, 2012, 02:17:02 PM
 #370

If you take the top public tier rate instead of the unpublished rate, you are not subject to the limits, AFAIK. I'm not familiar with BitcoinMax, so if they provide <7%/wk, it may be beneficial for them/him/whoever to take on more deposits and take the slightly lower max published rate. It could be possible that Pirate only states you can't deposit more than the limit, but then waives that requirement -- I wouldn't know. I also don't know whether or not Pirate allows compounding on "bonus" accounts.

See, that's part of the problem..  there are a bunch of underinformed people making a bunch of assumptions and then conclusively making decisions on those assumptions and then feeling the need to "protect"/warn others, who may or may not actually be more informed than the original parties.

The account bonus is based on the account balance not moving up or down more than a certain threshold each month.  Interest payments aren't accounted against that bonus, whether paid out or reinvested.  Bitcoinmax is only paying 6.9%, which means the operator(s) make .1% and may not be planning on the bonus.  In addition, Bitcoinmax might be working with a slush fund so that the pirate balance remains untouched much of the time, and instead uses their own funds to buffer the inflows and outflows.  Obviously a person would have to calculate the bonus vs the missed interest opportunity to see which is more profitable.

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August 05, 2012, 06:07:20 PM
 #371

2-The market is not responding to trades that would make up 30000+ BTC/week in profit. I mean shit, if you perfectly timed literally every market movement on Gox you wouldn't make that, and especially in the environment of the past few weeks you'd be making a USD profit, not a BTC one. Pirate is not the only big mover in these markets either, so if the whole volume of our largest exchange wouldn't support the transactions required to keep him going what would?

Let us start by defining what you mean by 'the market.'

I'd like to hear your view before I tell you about the much bigger market so I can see if I need to use Sagan's Pale Blue Dot.
If you were trying to make 30000BTC in profit every week you'd need to be making trades on a regular basis, probably daily, of 100K+. If you timed the market really well you'd still need to be making trades in the region of 500-800K BTC per week, and nowhere has a player with that kind of volume (or even close to) right now.

A full decade before Madoff got shut down, an investigator worked out that to meet his stated profits doing the options trades he claimed to be doing, his trade volume would be much larger than the entire exchange volume in those markets, and yet nobody had any evidence of someone trading at anything like those levels anywhere.
It's very much the same argument here. I don't see how any of the major markets could provide enough arbitrage opportunities or any such thing to service liabilities like BTCST has at the interest rates they have.

Interest payment 26000BTC ? Nice you are also in the speculation camp who feel 100% certain their non-facts of what is included at each payment is definitely interest only which is seriously laughable. These payments do not correlate to what they speculate it must be be and now it seems you use this same false information as your evidence.

I actually started a thread trying to work out the net exposure to BTCST - if others are "better informed" about the amounts in various accounts I'd love to get some figures:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98225.0

Looking at the PPTs on the forum and the GLBSE instruments alone, there's a minimum of BTC230k there, without taking account of privately owned BTCST accounts of unknown value.

So it seems likely that much of that 26000BTC is interest.

In addition, Bitcoinmax might be working with a slush fund so that the pirate balance remains untouched much of the time, and instead uses their own funds to buffer the inflows and outflows.  Obviously a person would have to calculate the bonus vs the missed interest opportunity to see which is more profitable.
I think their buffer's relatively small - last week the MtGox hot-wallet ran dry and Pirate couldn't pay them until a day late, and they had very limited capacity to meet withdrawals until they got the coins through. Would make sense to run the buffer as small as possible.
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August 05, 2012, 07:08:21 PM
 #372


"To have a large volume. The more he have BTC, the more he can get profit. If he offered 2%/week, he would have strong competition around the forum and many people would invest elsewhere. He would be unable to accumulate the large inventory he have right now. At 7%, he's at the top of the world, he's the ultimate fund and cannot be touch. And like I said, pirate is not making profit in BTC, but in USD, that's important. The 3% profit he makes is in USD. Let's say pirate move 125 000 BTC every week. He makes 10% profit on it, that's 12 500 BTC. If he takes only 3%, he makes 3750 BTC. But since it's in USD, he can make around 37 500$ each week. He makes this money while being almost immune to BTC volatility.

I don't know the exact number, it's just to show how the little 3% that pirate can be really profitable. And like The Joint said before, I'm also sure at 99% of what pirate is doing. That 1% can go a long way, and I can't argue on it, since I don't know. I only hope it gives you another perspective of how pirate can make his money. "

youre either blindly defending pirate or you cant see the wood from the trees
hes taking 3% for himself  but repaying a compounding 7% for the priviledge of borrowed coins

also since the coin price is rapidly rising ,buying back the new 25% higher priced  coins is going to eat into his 3% rapidly







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August 05, 2012, 07:09:15 PM
 #373

Brunic, read first few sentenceses of your post and had to stop. Too much BS and I call it.

for example,

Quote
Also, pirate make his profit in USD, not in BTC.

yea right. Have you seen USDBTC chart lately?


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August 05, 2012, 07:22:25 PM
 #374


also since the coin price is rapidly rising ,buying back the new 25% higher priced  coins is going to eat into his 3% rapidly


Which is why Pirate said that a sudden price spike can hurt him.

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August 05, 2012, 07:23:39 PM
 #375

There are 50,400 BTC mined each week.  Where do they go?

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August 05, 2012, 07:40:51 PM
 #376

There are 50,400 BTC mined each week.  Where do they go?
To the miners.
Rhetorical question?

pirate is not making profit in BTC, but in USD, that's important. The 3% profit he makes is in USD.
Cheers for having a go at my questions, but if you're right on this point then pirate is almost certainly insolvent given the recent price movements.
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August 05, 2012, 07:53:00 PM
 #377

Profit taking in USD != keeping all the principal in USD

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August 05, 2012, 07:55:23 PM
 #378


also since the coin price is rapidly rising ,buying back the new 25% higher priced  coins is going to eat into his 3% rapidly


Which is why Pirate said that a sudden price spike can hurt him.

So paying interest of 3400% per year cant hurt Pirates operation ,but rising bitcoin prices could ............
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August 05, 2012, 07:59:12 PM
 #379

1-Nobody who is actually making >7% a week on here would keep issuing such a huge amount of extra debt. Why on earth would you finance yourself at 3400% APR when there would be plenty of demand even in the BTC world for an annual rate one-twentieth of that?

Velocity is increased, as can be seen by the gradual uptrend in Bitcoin days destroyed.

2-The market is not responding to trades that would make up 30000+ BTC/week in profit. I mean shit, if you perfectly timed literally every market movement on Gox you wouldn't make that, and especially in the environment of the past few weeks you'd be making a USD profit, not a BTC one. Pirate is not the only big mover in these markets either, so if the whole volume of our largest exchange wouldn't support the transactions required to keep him going what would?

There are other components than just BTCS&T.

3-Every time a thread like this gets opened, a dozen retailers of pirate investment schemes turn up and try to bury it. I know it's easy to not ask too many questions when you're making a nice little cut off the side - hell, Bernie Madoff gave his feeder funds about 90% of everything he ever took in fees, but this isn't a party that can go on for much longer. It's grown to the size now where I really do think we're approaching the limits of what should even be considered possible. So, last week's interest payment was 26000BTC. Seeing the amount that's going in and the amount that's compounding this week should be more like 30k. Do tell, where has BTCST made over 30k in profits this week? This isn't a big market, and a player that big should make some serious waves when they move their weight around, which they'd have to do a lot of to bring in that kind of cash each week.

Not bury - point out the highly probable flaws in the Ponzi reasoning. There are certainly other operations that may be much more likely to be Ponzi-related. Deeper scrutiny into all of Pirate's operations suggests that it is legitimate.

4-Why pay 7%? If the business model wasn't just "bring in more deposits", you could find finance on these forums at 2% a week. Even at that level it would be tough for an operation as large as this one to be profitable, so why? Is Pirate some kind of philanthropist, giving back over a million dollars in interest every month for no good reason at all? I mean really?

See the first rebuttal, and the A day in the life of a pirate thread. In short, by paying out the majority of profits, there's no way any competition would be able to keep pace with Pirate unless adopting the same practice, which is unlikely to be able to achieve 7% returns with only one method of generating profit.
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August 05, 2012, 08:02:14 PM
 #380

There are 50,400 BTC mined each week.  Where do they go?
To the miners.
Rhetorical question?

Nope.  Perhaps Pirate's tapped into some of the largest miners for a supply of coins that would never appear in Gox volume?  Perhaps Pirate is mining (I'm not talking about gpumax)?

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