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Author Topic: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"  (Read 108049 times)
miscreanity
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August 06, 2012, 12:32:47 AM
 #401

And as a balance to this "substantial information," BTCS&T has basically every hallmark of being a Ponzi scheme including:

  • Ridiculously above-market rate of return.
  • Consistent high returns no matter which way the market goes.
  • Completely inscrutable business model.
  • Rate premiums for larger deposits and bringing in even larger deposits.
  • After the ramp-up, a feigned reluctance to take on more deposits.
  • Early adopters promoting the scheme to others and defending the "businessman."

So, as between the hypotheses that BTCS&T is (1) a Ponzi scheme or (2) running some crazy Illuminati trading technique and inexplicably paying 3400%, you can surely forgive "team Ponzi" for finding the latter hypothesis much, much more likely. Right?

That is a solid counterpoint; a few emotionally-charged bits, but sensible Smiley

Accusations are one thing; assertions are another. I can admit and respect suspicions leading to the former, not the latter with lack of definitive proof.
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August 06, 2012, 12:33:03 AM
 #402

Are the mining operations on glbse a ponzi scheme ? Some of them pay the equivalent of what the lenders pay in interest.

I would like to see people argue that they are without losing any credibility.
Mining ops have transparent business models and are back by physical hardware. Keep in mind the value of fixed Mh/s mining bonds goes down over time.  For example, a mining bond paying 2%/week might lose 1% of its value per week due to rising difficulty.

Even better than a Ponzi!  I need to set up a 'mining' operation that gets its coins from the subsequent investment in pirate.  Then I pay diminishing returns from my 'mining' based on difficulty ± 'luck factor'.

It has crossed my mind to do that but I decided its not ethical to claim you have a mining farm when you dont. Some of the bond issuers will tell you they get accused of this very thing all the time....

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August 06, 2012, 12:41:25 AM
 #403

There are 50,400 BTC mined each week.  Where do they go?
To the miners.
Rhetorical question?

Nope.  Perhaps Pirate's tapped into some of the largest miners for a supply of coins that would never appear in Gox volume?  Perhaps Pirate is mining (I'm not talking about gpumax)?


If pirate funded a mining farm using USD which pays out in bitcoins that would be immensely profitable. As long as you have a LOT of USD  to set that up it easily explains the returns. Imagine if you setup a mining farm using USD then bitcoin prices rose 3000%

Further, if you have a successful fiat based company with excess profits which you funnelled into bitcoin mining the only exposure you have is the cost of production.

TL;DR the pirate had a fat USD wallet to start with  Cheesy


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August 06, 2012, 01:02:28 AM
 #404

There are 50,400 BTC mined each week.  Where do they go?
To the miners.
Rhetorical question?

Nope.  Perhaps Pirate's tapped into some of the largest miners for a supply of coins that would never appear in Gox volume?  Perhaps Pirate is mining (I'm not talking about gpumax)?

Half of the miners could give pirate all their coins FOR FREE every week and it wouldn't even cover the interest payments.


If pirate funded a mining farm using USD which pays out in bitcoins that would be immensely profitable. As long as you have a LOT of USD  to set that up it easily explains the returns. Imagine if you setup a mining farm using USD then bitcoin prices rose 3000%

Further, if you have a successful fiat based company with excess profits which you funnelled into bitcoin mining the only exposure you have is the cost of production.

TL;DR the pirate had a fat USD wallet to start with  Cheesy
Hoping something goes up 3000% in value is a terrible reason to offer 3000% anual interest.  Also, pirate pays out BTC, so even if he profited a bunch of USD from setting up a cheap mining rig, he would still need to pay out in high priced BTC.

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August 06, 2012, 01:11:04 AM
 #405

There are 50,400 BTC mined each week.  Where do they go?
To the miners.
Rhetorical question?

Nope.  Perhaps Pirate's tapped into some of the largest miners for a supply of coins that would never appear in Gox volume?  Perhaps Pirate is mining (I'm not talking about gpumax)?

Half of the miners could give pirate all their coins FOR FREE every week and it wouldn't even cover the interest payments.


If pirate funded a mining farm using USD which pays out in bitcoins that would be immensely profitable. As long as you have a LOT of USD  to set that up it easily explains the returns. Imagine if you setup a mining farm using USD then bitcoin prices rose 3000%

Further, if you have a successful fiat based company with excess profits which you funnelled into bitcoin mining the only exposure you have is the cost of production.

TL;DR the pirate had a fat USD wallet to start with  Cheesy
Hoping something goes up 3000% in value is a terrible reason to offer 3000% anual interest.  Also, pirate pays out BTC, so even if he profited a bunch of USD from setting up a cheap mining rig, he would still need to pay out in high priced BTC.

As long as he is profiting more than  in usd terms and pumping usd profits into more mining he could theoretically make enough btc each week from those rigs that explains where he makes coins from. People here are claiming there is no actual business model that explains where he is getting the coins from to pay interest. Im  showing them there is a possibility that explains the source and makes the pirate NOT a ponzi.

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August 06, 2012, 01:25:42 AM
 #406

Imagine if you setup a mining farm using USD then bitcoin prices rose 3000%

That would suck a lot compared to buying bitcoins since the difficulty increase is going to eat up a lot or all of the gains.

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August 06, 2012, 01:34:53 AM
 #407

As long as he is profiting more than  in usd terms and pumping usd profits into more mining he could theoretically make enough btc each week from those rigs that explains where he makes coins from. People here are claiming there is no actual business model that explains where he is getting the coins from to pay interest. Im  showing them there is a possibility that explains the source and makes the pirate NOT a ponzi.

Not so. People here are saying (1) that there's no evidence that any business model exists, (2) even if such a model did exist and could generate the profits, there's not reason for him to pay so much for credit--most especially if he had a "fat USD wallet to begin with."

The second point is the kicker for me, and is frequently ignored by folks defending the "bank." While it's possible to make money very quickly, it is generally irrational to pay much more for credit than you have to.
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August 06, 2012, 01:37:13 AM
 #408

Can anyone name a business that made a 3400% return in a year?

I think some penny mining stocks (exploratory companies that found a deposit) might approach this level.   I found this link on the best penny stock performer in 2010 and it only went up 2890%.  And that was 1 out of many (thousands?) of penny stocks. The #2 stock only increased by 980%.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10950713/10/10-best-performing-penny-stocks-of-2010.html


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August 06, 2012, 01:56:15 AM
 #409

Can anyone name a business that made a 3400% return in a year?

I think some penny mining stocks (exploratory companies that found a deposit) might approach this level.   I found this link on the best penny stock performer in 2010 and it only went up 2890%.  And that was 1 out of many (thousands?) of penny stocks. The #2 stock only increased by 980%.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10950713/10/10-best-performing-penny-stocks-of-2010.html



Bitcoin itself went from pennies to $32

Thats a lot more than 3000%

miscreanity
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August 06, 2012, 05:08:48 AM
 #410

Can anyone name a business that made a 3400% return in a year?
Bitcoin Savings & Trust

It hasn't quite been a year yet... Smiley
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August 06, 2012, 06:15:17 AM
 #411

And as a balance to this "substantial information," BTCS&T has basically every hallmark of being a Ponzi scheme including:

  • Ridiculously above-market rate of return.
  • Consistent high returns no matter which way the market goes.
  • Completely inscrutable business model.
  • Rate premiums for larger deposits and bringing in even larger deposits.
  • After the ramp-up, a feigned reluctance to take on more deposits.
  • Early adopters promoting the scheme to others and defending the "businessman."

So, as between the hypotheses that BTCS&T is (1) a Ponzi scheme or (2) running some crazy Illuminati trading technique and inexplicably paying 3400%, you can surely forgive "team Ponzi" for finding the latter hypothesis much, much more likely. Right?

That is a solid counterpoint; a few emotionally-charged bits, but sensible Smiley

Accusations are one thing; assertions are another. I can admit and respect suspicions leading to the former, not the latter with lack of definitive proof.

All those "sensible" assertions were asserted here long ago and not a new thing. It is just shills are trying very hard to bury it. You kind of need to read more than one last post of every given person to treat those posts in context.

One thing I am looking forward to see is how, once ponzi collapses, some/many of it's victims will defend pirate and his lieutenants and blame everyone else but them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome . I have a hypothesis, this it what will happen, now gotta wait and see if practice will validate the theory.

As for the evidence question. I understand that asking for evidence that it is a ponzi is the same as demanding to prove a negative i.e. to prove that there is no valid underlying biz model. The burden on proof is on pirate, he is the one who asking for money and refuses to provide a proof that he is not running a ponzi (which is simple to prove if true). At the same time he deploys an army of shills to wage his PR war and round up new marks.

Let us look into what evidence we have:
- the only activity we have objective evidence of is PR, IR, accepting deposits, paying "dividends", using intermediaries.

Let us look into what objective evidence we do not have:
- any economic activity that could even potentially generate profit, let alone at 10% per week level.

feel free to add to the list.




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imsaguy
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August 06, 2012, 06:33:36 AM
 #412

Can anyone name a business that made a 3400% return in a year?
Bitcoin Savings & Trust

It hasn't quite been a year yet... Smiley

Actually, it has.

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August 06, 2012, 06:41:49 AM
 #413

miscreanity, are you paid for constantly trying to educate them?

Good question (apart from the word "educate", which I would replace with the word "mislead").

The answer is yes.

Note how he writes foggy prose that is, at closer inspection, a cloud of pure nonsense. He is trying to lure clueless, but awed newbies.
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August 06, 2012, 06:45:39 AM
 #414

loving Frankie and his debate style.

When is the next round of interest payments from Pirate due?  I have the actual popcorn right here

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August 06, 2012, 06:57:57 AM
 #415

It is difficult to say for sure how many (or few) more weeks the scheme can possibly run, but it seems we are beyond the point where any "investor", except a very small one, could successfully withdraw his entire nominal balance.

Any large withdrawal attempt would now lead to an immediate game over.
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August 06, 2012, 07:09:21 AM
 #416

loving Frankie and his debate style.

When is the next round of interest payments from Pirate due?  I have the actual popcorn right here

Are you that disconnected to not know the interest payments are every Monday? 

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August 06, 2012, 07:09:51 AM
 #417

It is difficult to say for sure how many (or few) more weeks the scheme can possibly run, but it seems we are beyond the point where any "investor", except a very small one, could successfully withdraw his entire nominal balance.

Any large withdrawal attempt would now lead to an immediate game over.

What do you consider to be 'large'?

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August 06, 2012, 08:06:07 AM
 #418

One thing I am looking forward to see is how, once ponzi collapses, some/many of it's victims will defend pirate and his lieutenants and blame everyone else but them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome . I have a hypothesis, this it what will happen, now gotta wait and see if practice will validate the theory.

perhaps it will be a slow, extended flameout?  

week 1: "it wasn't a ponzi that collapsed.  the funds are all still there, just that bs&t doesn't have access to them until [some future event] occurs."

week 2: "we aren't getting interest anymore but none of our funds were lost.  just waiting for the green light to withdraw!  Grin"

week 3: "i sure hope pirate is ok.  he hasn't updated anything.  his 5k went to charity already so that was unexpected."

week 4: "with all these angry people, i'ld remain incommunicado as well.  wouldn't you?"

week 5: "there's still no evidence it was a ponzi you guys!  fud fud fud that's all you do."

week 5: "it couldn't have been a ponzi.  he was making 10% profit every week, people were getting their payments, every week!"

week 6:  "how the hell did he get hacked? fml!  well, at least that proves it wasn't a ponzi!"

week 7: "why did i keep rolling over the payouts?  i would only be down 65% instead of it being a total loss.  dumb dumb dumb!"

week 8: "someone should have kept his wine glass in vegas, they can get dna from that you know."
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August 06, 2012, 10:22:02 AM
 #419

There are 50,400 BTC mined each week.  Where do they go?
To the miners.
Rhetorical question?

Nope.  Perhaps Pirate's tapped into some of the largest miners for a supply of coins that would never appear in Gox volume?  Perhaps Pirate is mining (I'm not talking about gpumax)?

Half of the miners could give pirate all their coins FOR FREE every week and it wouldn't even cover the interest payments.


If pirate funded a mining farm using USD which pays out in bitcoins that would be immensely profitable. As long as you have a LOT of USD  to set that up it easily explains the returns. Imagine if you setup a mining farm using USD then bitcoin prices rose 3000%

Further, if you have a successful fiat based company with excess profits which you funnelled into bitcoin mining the only exposure you have is the cost of production.

TL;DR the pirate had a fat USD wallet to start with  Cheesy
Hoping something goes up 3000% in value is a terrible reason to offer 3000% anual interest.  Also, pirate pays out BTC, so even if he profited a bunch of USD from setting up a cheap mining rig, he would still need to pay out in high priced BTC.

As long as he is profiting more than  in usd terms and pumping usd profits into more mining he could theoretically make enough btc each week from those rigs that explains where he makes coins from. People here are claiming there is no actual business model that explains where he is getting the coins from to pay interest. Im  showing them there is a possibility that explains the source and makes the pirate NOT a ponzi.
He'd need about 10TH/s at the current difficulty. On free power. Assuing the difficulty didn't also rise.
Yeeeeah that's unlikely.

Let us look into what evidence we have:
- the only activity we have objective evidence of is PR, IR, accepting deposits, paying "dividends", using intermediaries.

Let us look into what objective evidence we do not have:
- any economic activity that could even potentially generate profit, let alone at 10% per week level.
I'd say as important as the proportion is the sheer scale of the profit you'd need to generate.

Oh well, interest payments supposed to go out today - based on previous weeks we're looking at about 50-60% reinvestment so as long as he's picked up 15K BTC of new investment this week (and he probably has) payouts for this week should go as usual.
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August 06, 2012, 03:58:31 PM
 #420

I enjoyed reading about the OP, when I was looking at the GLBSE I figured some of these had to be ponzi scams

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