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Author Topic: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"  (Read 107821 times)
miscreanity
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August 10, 2012, 10:41:20 PM
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<Pure ignorance>

You're giving Atlas a run for being the most obnoxious troll around.

Ignore.
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August 10, 2012, 10:52:50 PM
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<Pure ignorance>

You're giving Atlas a run for being the most obnoxious troll around.

Ignore.

I'll say this for Atlas: at least he wasn't an eager participant in the biggest bitcoin fraud to date.

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August 10, 2012, 11:00:45 PM
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Ad hominem. If you want to contribute anything of substance, you need to have comprehension of the dynamics I'm talking about. The critical concepts:

Capital flow

Stock to flow ratio

Video discussing S:F

Everyone is concentrated exclusively on the stock, which not where the action is. The margins are where the flow becomes most important, and also where the profit is gained. It's very similar to hydraulics, where a marginal effort amplifies results.

Woah, that's really interesting, I didn't knew about those dynamics.

I'm a newbie at that sort of thing, here's a theory coming from my ass, tell me if I'm wrong:
So, the value of pirate business is not about how many BTC he have, but how many BTC he can circulate between USD and BTC? If BTC was a water tank, it is not about how big is the water tank, but mainly how big are the pipes?

[...]




Did I understood correctly? Or I'm completely wrong?

More info for this amazing investment opportunity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfW0ke4bwI4

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totaleclipseofthebank
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August 10, 2012, 11:13:51 PM
 #564

Clearly, Pirate is recirculating the flows of the gross BTCUSD capital-flow ratios through a proprietary securities algorithmic trading process by which the future net present value discounted interest rate is projected onto present equity value market-velocity parameters!

Thanks, it all makes so much sense now!

also xfd at the scuba
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August 11, 2012, 12:18:53 AM
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Quote
Did I understood correctly? Or I'm completely wrong?

The latter.  Dude is running a Ponzi scheme. 
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August 11, 2012, 12:29:40 AM
 #566

Your arguments aren't... compelling. Coherence usually helps.

If you want a Kardashian dog & pony show, you won't get it from me. Ignorance prevents you from connecting the dots and engaging in any argument of substance. Read the links to expand your knowledge.

A buyer at $5 may be a seller at $10. New entrants may be buyers at $10 and sellers at $9. In either situation, supply is replenished and available for acquisition to be redirected as return for investors. Everyone is looking at the total amount of BTC in existence rather than the churn at the margin, where holders of bitcoins sell, reintroducing flow into the market. Once more - that flow becomes fodder to be picked up and supplied to Pirate & investors. There is a recirculating dynamic.

Get it? No? Read the links again. Then read them a third, fourth, and fifth time. Sleep on it. Read it again. Read through my explanations in this thread again. Not an easy concept to wrap your head around when you're stuck in the fiat world, is it? Keep reading.

To help, study the difference between cash/physical market pricing and derivative-driven pricing of underlying assets (esp. options & futures). Bitcoin is almost entirely a cash/physical market, and its stock to flow ratio works nearly identically to gold.



Ad hominem. If you want to contribute anything of substance, you need to have comprehension of the dynamics I'm talking about. The critical concepts:

Capital flow

Stock to flow ratio

Video discussing S:F

Everyone is concentrated exclusively on the stock, which not where the action is. The margins are where the flow becomes most important, and also where the profit is gained. It's very similar to hydraulics, where a marginal effort amplifies results.

Woah, that's really interesting, I didn't knew about those dynamics.

I'm a newbie at that sort of thing, here's a theory coming from my ass, tell me if I'm wrong:
So, the value of pirate business is not about how many BTC he have, but how many BTC he can circulate between USD and BTC? If BTC was a water tank, it is not about how big is the water tank, but mainly how big are the pipes?

I'm starting to understand. BTC <-> USD flow is somewhat jammed, because the pipes between them are too small. You can't purchase 100 000 BTC without blowing up the price on Mt. Gox, and we can forget about the smaller exchanges. You're stuck moving small amount of BTC because the flow BTC <-> USD have a limit.

So pirate, with his business, found a way to make fucking big pipes, to have a big flow between USD and BTC. His money is made, not on the amount of BTC he have, but on the amount of BTC he can move. His pipe have a maintenance cost (the 7%/week), so, if somebody want to use his big pipe, he simply charges more money to cover his cost of using the pipe.

His current BTC stock is probably relatively small, something toward 10% to 20% of the BTC lend. He can pay interest and withdrawal with relative ease, since he has that big fucking pipe that move big amount of USD - BTC really fast. That's why he's telling he will repay everybody, since he can move USD - BTC really easily. Probably that if you would look at the blockchain, you would find the BTC tank almost empty and wonder where is the money. But pirate capacity is not in having a lot of BTC in the same address, it's his capacity to move money around. Even a blockchain analysis would be flawed, since you're looking at only one side of the pipe (the BTC side) and you don't have the data on the other side (the USD side).

At the end, pirate would never have all the BTC in existence, even if it last 10 years, because he's not stocking them. The interest are a representation of how much money is flowing through his business. If he generates 100 000 000 000 BTC in interest, it's because those BTC, at a certain period of time, used the pirate pipe.

Did I understood correctly? Or I'm completely wrong?


very interesting. thanks  Smiley
miscreanity
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August 11, 2012, 12:34:12 AM
 #567

A buyer at $5 may be a seller at $10. New entrants may be buyers at $10 and sellers at $9. In either situation, supply is replenished and available for acquisition to be redirected as return for investors. Everyone is looking at the total amount of BTC in existence rather than the churn at the margin, where holders of bitcoins sell, reintroducing flow into the market. Once more - that flow becomes fodder to be picked up and supplied to Pirate & investors. There is a recirculating dynamic.
I already brought this up.  Clearly it isn't a compelling argument.  Roll Eyes

Yeah, nothing like a closed mind to make you want to leave the sheep behind. At least some can maintain a productive discussion.

So, the value of pirate business is not about how many BTC he have, but how many BTC he can circulate between USD and BTC? If BTC was a water tank, it is not about how big is the water tank, but mainly how big are the pipes?
very interesting. thanks  Smiley

Yup, the pipes analogy is great. Smiley
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August 11, 2012, 01:26:12 AM
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To the water tank poster,

That's pretty much the only idea that could possibly work for Pirate. His supporters agree with you, the naysayers call bs and just say it's a Ponzi.

Borrowing coins to do this could be profitable, in my mind. But 7% is just a gimmick. He would have the same amount of investors at 4% or 5% a week. A variable percentage rate would also be acceptable. You see, to pay 7% for this long, Pirate would have to:

1. Have the connections. This entails knowing people who are a.) filthy rich b.) willing to pour money into bitcoin c.) haven't already done so. d.) are too stupid or lazy to figure out bitcoin-OTC (just like me!)

2. have these "rich folk" lining up at his doorstep week after week after week. Pirate apparently needs more and more coins all the time. He can't sell enough of them! He keeps borrowing more and more because these hungry little birds just can't get enough of bitcoin.

3. HE WOULD HAVE TO OBTAIN THE BITCOINS TO REPAY HIS DEBTORS. He has already explicitly said that GPUmax has nothing to do with BTCST (too bad, would have been a decent explanation). This means he buys them all on OTC (very unlikely imo), or on Gox. Which defeats the whole purpose (profit) of the entire operation. This point as been brought up time and time again, but it has never been explained.

Even if the first 2 requirements are met, the 3rd just makes no damn sense to me. It never will until somebody explains it in a way other than "ooh its a secret, don't invest in something you don't understand." Still waiting.

If pirate is legit, and he is rapidly expanding the bitcoin economy under the table, then he is playing a zero sum game (i think). In theory, it all comes back around to market in the end, and everyone benefits from the delayed price hike. It's just delayed. (could be totally wrong about this last paragraph)
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August 11, 2012, 03:16:06 AM
 #569

Again, I'm not giving you grief here.  Your statement that "most of them feign not being interested in taking your money (even though they are supposedly paying absurd rates). Ponzi schemes like to seem "exclusive"; this is a diagnostic characteristic." is fascinating, and I would love to read case law or the original research that has concluded this.

Honestly, this is really, really basic stuff. It's Ponzi 101. Any good introduction to Ponzi schemes will cover this. Madoff famously refused many investor's money. It was not unusual to hear people argue that if Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme, he wouldn't refuse any deposits. He also cleverly warned people that because withdrawals disrupted his strategy, people who withdrew might not be permitted to re-invest.

One very basic thing any major scammer does is at least occasionally, intentionally act against type. You have to look carefully to get the big picture.

+1

please continue smacking down the Fuddettes with fact and logic.  tytytyty for being vigilant in this thread.

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August 11, 2012, 03:24:49 AM
 #570

The burden of proof is on pirate and his shills. It is a ponzi until proven otherwise as far as any reasonable person is concerned.

Why? [additional bullshit omitted to spare humanity]

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_burden_of_proof

Quote
When debating any issue, there is an implicit burden of proof on the person asserting a claim. "If this responsibility or burden of proof is shifted to a critic, the fallacy of appealing to ignorance is committed".[1] This burden does not necessarily require a mathematical or strictly logical proof, although many strong arguments do rise to this level (such as in logical syllogisms). Rather, the evidential standard required for a given claim is determined by convention or community standards, with regard to the context of the claim in question.[2][3]

[vomit, diarrhea, more farts from the mouth...]


Permit me to simplify:

E_p > E_np

where E_p = N (for large positive values of N) is evidence of being flaming ponzi
and E_np = 0 is evidence of not being a flaming ponzi


Oh right, once again, no facts. [to be read in a pathetic, withering squeal]

Facts in bold:

A simple truism: the burden of proof lies on those making incredible statements which contradict all experience. The returns promised require extraordinary explanation.

FACT: No explanation is provided. End of story. One can only conclude that what looks and smells like an utter fraud is, in fact, an utter fraud.

Obviously, much evidence exists that this is a ponzi scheme [as in exhibits literally each and every characteristic of a ponzi scheme], and the lack of any evidence to counter is sufficient for appropriate branding.

Demand for the impossible proof of a negative is a reliable gambit for the conman and also assuages the bedeviling consciences of the naively complicit (and there are many of those, indeed).

very well said.

I tell internet:

 "I have a secret business plan that if you told you then I could no longer profit"

now according to skeptics in this thread, after making this statement no acceptable concrete proof of Ponzi can be accepted because of this super-secret vague money machine you should take me at my word that I have & it's extremely profitable.  but want to let you invest in it. 



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August 11, 2012, 03:34:24 AM
 #571

miscreanity is spouting vague salesman-type Ponzi gibberish like its his job

lmao

nothing he says makes any sense

"churn at the margins is being capitalized upon"

reverse FUD IMO.

Pirateat40 even called for "anti-FUD" in the latest edit of BCST OP.  So sick how he has these affiliates doing his bidding for him, both collecting and shipping him tons of BTC and defending the scam to the forums.  All of them working for pennies on the dollars he is stealing.  Disgusting, even more so if the pass-through operations actually understand what they are doing.  After it goes boom most pass-through operators will claim ignorance, so it's important to remember their tone here. 

Further more the most staunch supporters like BurtW and Bitcoinmax will completely disappear, but will reappear on these forums under a new name.  Watch for them / always try and connect the human to the multiple accounts.  IMO the search for Dox should commence now but be held private until the boom. 


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August 11, 2012, 04:04:33 AM
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BurtW and payb.tc will completely disappear, but will reappear on these forums under a new name.  

Bullshit, Micon.


These are honest guys.

(FTFY... You meant payb.tc)
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August 11, 2012, 04:09:08 AM
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Maged: I have a proof that this is a ponzi. But I will not tell ya, coz people who dug it up did not give me permission.
I made no such assertion. I was merely saying that we had proof that imsaguy's claim that pirate is discouraging deposits and is being effective in doing do is patently false. Of course this was the case, because apparently the discouraging hasn't started.
He's penalizing deposits as well as withdrawals.  How many times do I have to say this before you actually acknowledge it?
You can say it all you want, because the unofficial audit team has irrefutable proof that this is absolutely not the case. For example, despite growing over 10% per week, BitcoinMax is still making 7.7% per week in interest.

The rules don't take effect until the middle of the month...
Weird that you never brought that up... Well, guess we now know what is happening on the 14th...

Did you miss the posting where Pirate said trust accounts are pushed back?  I didn't think I had to regurgitate public knowledge.  Contrary to public opinion, I don't have some special access to Pirate and only know what he announces to everyone else.
Why no, I didn't miss that. In fact, just to make sure, I just read it again. I see no public announcement about getting additional interest if you stay within 5%, however. If such announcement was made publicly, it was made on IRC, and you can't expect everyone to have all of the logs of that channel, yet alone the time to read them all. So no, this part was not public knowledge, in the general sense.

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August 11, 2012, 05:04:20 AM
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Assuming that pirate is operating a ponzi, which is the only reasonable assumption that can be made given the facts, pirates shills by promoting the scheme are likely complicit in fraud.

So are operators of this forum, by making threads of various intermediaries of a highly likely ponzi scheme(s) sticky threads in the lending section.

So are are operators of GLBSE by not performing trivial due diligence and allowing operations that are exhibiting all the signs of a ponzi scheme and their affiliates to list their "securities" on their trading platform.  The policy "you will not be allowed to be listed only if you tell me you are operating a ponzi" is not good enough for a financial service.

I long ago have correctly predicted that Intersango trio will be sued personally over the Bitcoinica matter. I now predict that most pirate's intermediaries and operators of GLBSE will be sued personally over the pirate matter. Just watch.



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August 11, 2012, 05:06:34 AM
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Why no, I didn't miss that. In fact, just to make sure, I just read it again. I see no public announcement about getting additional interest if you stay within 5%, however. If such announcement was made publicly, it was made on IRC, and you can't expect everyone to have all of the logs of that channel, yet alone the time to read them all. So no, this part was not public knowledge, in the general sense.

Posting on IRC is public knowledge.  The nice thing about IRC is that the comments can't be edited like they can be in the forums.  Once its said, its said for good.  I agree, a person can't be everywhere.  I do my darnedest to try to keep up with everything said on the forums but as everything has become more polarized and seemingly less factual, I grow weary from it.

I don't understand why, if you or someone else has linked conclusive proof of shenanigans going on why it can't be disclosed.  If freedom of expression allows a person to call someone else a ponzi without any proof, then surely that same freedom of expression covers honest mistakes.  Further, if there's such a moral obligation to speak out against pirate being a ponzi, surely there's just as much of an obligation to actually release evidence of said ponzi.  At least more than "It lives where ducks live" or "Its colored like a duck".

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August 11, 2012, 05:29:10 AM
 #576

The burden of proof is on pirate and his shills. It is a ponzi until proven otherwise as far as any reasonable person is concerned.

Why?  Do you have funds involved?  Is there a law being broken?  Has someone committed a tortious offense?

I'm curious why spectators are so excitable about this, other than,"Internet arguing!  Wheee!"

This:

Who needs a 51% attack when you can just make sure every newspaper article on bitcoin forever mentions the countless ponzi schemes and untold millions stolen from credulous fools?

It is clear that the repercussions will be substantial.

And now you've hit the nail on the head for why I care.

If this was a scam occurring in USD or something similar - wouldn't bother me, buyer beware and all that.

But really now, how do you think the press will react if someone successfully steals about 5% of all the bitcoins in circulation?
That'd be the USD equivalent of someone stealing in the many trillions of dollars.
If some poor misguided fool's been scammed out of his college fund, do you really think he's going to be coming back to bitcoin in a hurry? Do you really think someone who knows that person or who reads about the story online will be rushing straight over to the forum or to Mtgox?

pirate have provided a lot more information and confirmation of his good business than you guys could provide that his business is bad.

What confirmation?

Are you not asserting the claim that Pirate is a ponzi?  Guess that means its on you.
Intentionally or not, you're confusing the issue here.

If I come on here asking for a 20000BTC loan, because I've got an awesome business plan that pays 4500% per year, but won't tell you what it is, what my assets are or anything of that nature, I'd be laughed off the forums, and rightly so. People would naturally assume that it was a scam unless I provided clear evidence of my ability to repay that money.

Why is it any different for pirate, when he's doing exactly this and operating at somewhere between fifteen and twenty five times that scale?
Basically:
Demand for the impossible proof of a negative is a reliable gambit for the conman and also assuages the bedeviling consciences of the naively complicit (and there are many of those, indeed).
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August 11, 2012, 05:36:13 AM
 #577

So are operators of this forum, by making threads of various intermediaries of a highly likely ponzi scheme(s) sticky threads in the lending section.
I assure you, that's not intentional. In fact, since you're the third person to bring that up to me, I'm considering changing the sticky policy in Lending:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99856.0

Why no, I didn't miss that. In fact, just to make sure, I just read it again. I see no public announcement about getting additional interest if you stay within 5%, however. If such announcement was made publicly, it was made on IRC, and you can't expect everyone to have all of the logs of that channel, yet alone the time to read them all. So no, this part was not public knowledge, in the general sense.

Posting on IRC is public knowledge.  The nice thing about IRC is that the comments can't be edited like they can be in the forums.  Once its said, its said for good.  I agree, a person can't be everywhere.  I do my darnedest to try to keep up with everything said on the forums but as everything has become more polarized and seemingly less factual, I grow weary from it.

I don't understand why, if you or someone else has linked conclusive proof of shenanigans going on why it can't be disclosed.  If freedom of expression allows a person to call someone else a ponzi without any proof, then surely that same freedom of expression covers honest mistakes.  Further, if there's such a moral obligation to speak out against pirate being a ponzi, surely there's just as much of an obligation to actually release evidence of said ponzi.  At least more than "It lives where ducks live" or "Its colored like a duck".
You keep thinking that I'm saying that I have proof that this is a ponzi. By definition, that is impossible. My only proof was that your claim about staying within 5% has historically been false, and it turns out that that was just a miscommunication because you thought that everyone knew that the policy hadn't started yet. Of course, until the policy goes into effect, it still doesn't do anything to help your side because Pirate could run with the money before the policy even takes effect on Monday.

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August 11, 2012, 05:43:59 AM
 #578

You keep thinking that I'm saying that I have proof that this is a ponzi. By definition, that is impossible. My only proof was that your claim about staying within 5% has historically been false, and it turns out that that was just a miscommunication because you thought that everyone knew that the policy hadn't started yet. Of course, until the policy goes into effect, it still doesn't do anything to help your side because Pirate could run with the money before the policy even takes effect on Monday.

You're right, I misread that.  I just went back and reread the post. 

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August 11, 2012, 06:21:24 AM
 #579

the most staunch supporters like BurtW and Bitcoinmax

staunch supporter? i think i've been pretty agnostic to be honest.

i've never said pirate's op is a ponzi, but have also never claimed that it isn't.


Who needs details when you can make them up as you go?

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August 11, 2012, 06:25:06 AM
 #580

BurtW and payb.tc will completely disappear, but will reappear on these forums under a new name.  

Bullshit, Micon.


These are honest guys.

(FTFY... You meant payb.tc)

meh, we'll see / I'll bet u will have different words for them in 2013

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