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Author Topic: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"  (Read 117758 times)
mp420
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August 14, 2012, 09:31:52 AM
 #701

One thing I've been thinking of. I am sure Pirate is running a ponzi scheme since every other alternative is exceedingly far-fetched. But I've been wondering about what is his profit goal. Is he keeping his internal books in USD or BTC? If in USD, he won't want to default even if his scheme grows too slow to pay all his (outgoing) interests, as long as the rising price of BTC against USD compensates for that. And has he already sold enough BTC and planned an exit strategy so that he can keep the scheme going until he's out of BTC? You see, he might think he's already rich enough and he might have a way to disappear so that no one can come after him. So, why not just wait and see how long it takes for the ponzi to collapse on its own?
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unclescrooge
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August 14, 2012, 10:12:17 AM
 #702

Pirate's turns growth in demand for bitcoins (ie USD flows to bitcoins) into bitcoins profit. That's why he needs massive (at bitcoin scale) capital.

Now back to ponziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

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August 14, 2012, 10:23:21 AM
 #703

Pirate's turns growth in demand for bitcoins (ie USD flows to bitcoins) into bitcoins profit. That's why he needs massive (at bitcoin scale) capital.

Now back to ponziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

I want to believe but what doesn't make sense to me is the fact he has to repay in bitcoins.

So he uses the bitcoins for large sales to investors only to then have to rebuy on the market + interest owed.
It doesn't add up.

The other point that doesn't make sense is why does he offer such a large interest rate ( he actually is paying above 7% to some VIP's) when all of his competitors pay much less than this.

Allot of things don't add up.

I want to believe. I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.
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August 14, 2012, 10:31:12 AM
 #704

One thing I've been thinking of. I am sure Pirate is running a ponzi scheme since every other alternative is exceedingly far-fetched. But I've been wondering about what is his profit goal. Is he keeping his internal books in USD or BTC? If in USD, he won't want to default even if his scheme grows too slow to pay all his (outgoing) interests, as long as the rising price of BTC against USD compensates for that. And has he already sold enough BTC and planned an exit strategy so that he can keep the scheme going until he's out of BTC? You see, he might think he's already rich enough and he might have a way to disappear so that no one can come after him. So, why not just wait and see how long it takes for the ponzi to collapse on its own?

You cannot rely on an ever-rising price of bitcoin. If this is another bubble, which is quite conceivable, then it may suddenly collapse and do so too quickly to get out at the top. We have seen this before.

So pirateat40 will continue as long as his stash, valued in dollar, grows, but he will, if he is not too stupid, be wary of unusually high bitcoin/dollar prices. Some people here think that a falling bitcoin price may trigger his exit, and that he has been selling bitcoin all the time, partly to get them out of the block chain and to launder them.

A falling bitcoin price may also indirectly trigger his exit, as some trend followers may want to sell their bitcoins, and for that they have to withdraw them first. (Trend-following is usually not a good strategy, by the way.)

Any big withdrawal order will also trigger his exit, as he will not pay out.

Why not just wait? It is a bit hard to watch a criminal go about his business of stealing money from unsuspecting people and do nothing about it. And with the incredible willingness of some stupid, math-challenged people to part with their money, we may have to wait a little longer, until the exponential curve finally cracks the Ponzi scheme.
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August 14, 2012, 10:35:04 AM
 #705


I want to believe but what doesn't make sense to me is the fact he has to repay in bitcoins.

So he uses the bitcoins for large sales to investors only to then have to rebuy on the market + interest owed.
It doesn't add up.


this this this this this,
aq
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August 14, 2012, 10:37:03 AM
 #706

I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.
7% is not that easy. However, if your not too greedy and accept 6.9%, now, that is easy! Send your coins to bitcoinmax, and withdraw after a week. Voila, 6.9% for you.
hgmichna
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August 14, 2012, 10:38:22 AM
 #707

On the contrary, when it comes to Ponzis, a lack of evidence of anything is evidence of a Ponzi. It's also extremely easy to disprove if it's not a ponzi. As it is, there is no evidence that a business side of BS&T even exists. If I'm wrong about this, let me know.
Well, there are quite a few respected members of this very forum, that know exactly about the BS&T business. You being a Moderator, did you even think about asking them privately before making your ponzi accusations?

Stop bullshitting everybody here. How deep are you in it?

So "respected members" know about the BullShit Trust business? Name one. Then tell us all why a 3,300% annual interest business borrows money in the first place and how it gets such profits. Then, after you did not do that, shut up for good and, if you are indeed in it, think about how to avoid a jail term.
hgmichna
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August 14, 2012, 10:42:48 AM
 #708

The other point that doesn't make sense is why does he offer such a large interest rate ( he actually is paying above 7% to some VIP's) when all of his competitors pay much less than this.

Allot of things don't add up.

I want to believe. I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.

Stop even mentioning "7% per week". Name it the ordinary, proper way. It is 3,300% annually.

"7% per week" is a psychological trick for the mathematically challenged to make it sound believable, yet have them calculate how they will get rich quick.

No legitimate business quotes its interest rates per week or per month.
hgmichna
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August 14, 2012, 10:46:21 AM
 #709

7% is not that easy. However, if your not too greedy and accept 6.9%, now, that is easy! Send your coins to bitcoinmax, and withdraw after a week. Voila, 6.9% for you.

For the math-challenged, that is 3,100% per annum.

Of course the crooks won't ever say that, because they are after the kids who skipped maths at school.

Bitcoinmax is an integral part of the BullShit Trust Ponzi scheme.
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August 14, 2012, 10:58:06 AM
 #710

7% is not that easy. However, if your not too greedy and accept 6.9%, now, that is easy! Send your coins to bitcoinmax, and withdraw after a week. Voila, 6.9% for you.

For the math-challenged, that is 3,100% per annum.

Of course the crooks won't ever say that, because they are after the kids who skipped maths at school.

Bitcoinmax is an integral part of the BullShit Trust Ponzi scheme.
Oh, I see that some math gurus have troubles thinking in weeks.
Anyway, the pirate investment works in weeks, hence 7% a week. BS&T pays the interest every week, not every year. So you can withdraw after a single week, and still have those 7%.
Of course, Micon/hgmichna will claim that pirate will ponzi steal those coins out of your wallet, even after you have successfully withdrawn them.
unclescrooge
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August 14, 2012, 11:09:43 AM
 #711

Pirate's turns growth in demand for bitcoins (ie USD flows to bitcoins) into bitcoins profit. That's why he needs massive (at bitcoin scale) capital.

Now back to ponziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

I want to believe but what doesn't make sense to me is the fact he has to repay in bitcoins.

So he uses the bitcoins for large sales to investors only to then have to rebuy on the market + interest owed.
It doesn't add up.

The other point that doesn't make sense is why does he offer such a large interest rate ( he actually is paying above 7% to some VIP's) when all of his competitors pay much less than this.

Allot of things don't add up.

I want to believe. I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.

If you look at the exchange rate, you can see it's controlled (at least I cannot believe such steady rates is natural). If he controls the exchange rate, and as long as he has new clients, then he has no problem rebuying back the coins on the market because he is the market.

No the problem is: who are his "clients"?

The way I see it is that when he will stop (not default), it will be because volumes on the exchanges are becoming too big for him (ie good news for Bitcoin). And I have no problem with him having such an impact on the exchange rate because it can do this only as long s there is demand for bitcoins, and that if he exit now (or even if he try to crash the market), the demand will stil be there, and the market will go on, just more volatile. He controls the price, not the currency itself.

Now it might well be a ponzi, but the last two months led me to think it's not. The "ponzi campaign" seemed to work quite well, the withdrawal must have been large, according to GLBSE PPT rates and forum talks, yet he has been able to meet his obligations. He showed up publically in Vegas. After this meeting, Goat has started offering fully insured PPT (meaning he was confident). And so on.

So yes, I believe it is possible to have that kind of return, in bitcoins. But I won't insult you if you think otherwise...

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August 14, 2012, 11:19:06 AM
 #712

Anyway, the pirate investment works in weeks, hence 7% a week. BS&T pays the interest every week, not every year. So you can withdraw after a single week, and still have those 7%.
Regardless of the frequency with which interest is paid, the rate should be quoted on a yearly basis. Annualized rates permit apples-to-apple comparisons both to interest rates on other instruments and to inflation rates. Many countries require interest rates to be specified in this forum to prevent precisely this type of deceptive description.

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aq
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August 14, 2012, 11:27:14 AM
 #713

Anyway, the pirate investment works in weeks, hence 7% a week. BS&T pays the interest every week, not every year. So you can withdraw after a single week, and still have those 7%.
Regardless of the frequency with which interest is paid, the rate should be quoted on a yearly basis. Annualized rates permit apples-to-apple comparisons both to interest rates on other instruments and to inflation rates. Many countries require interest rates to be specified in this forum to prevent precisely this type of deceptive description.
Bitcoin had some -10000% inflation over the last few years. Now good luck fitting Bitcoin into your fiat world view.
Shadow383
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August 14, 2012, 11:52:56 AM
 #714

Anyway, the pirate investment works in weeks, hence 7% a week. BS&T pays the interest every week, not every year. So you can withdraw after a single week, and still have those 7%.
Regardless of the frequency with which interest is paid, the rate should be quoted on a yearly basis. Annualized rates permit apples-to-apple comparisons both to interest rates on other instruments and to inflation rates. Many countries require interest rates to be specified in this forum to prevent precisely this type of deceptive description.


Interesting point on that:

If the idea that bitcoinmax is getting paid 7.7% is true, that puts payb.tc's interest rate at 4738%, which is about twice what Charles Ponzi offered  Cheesy

Well, there are quite a few respected members of this very forum, that know exactly about the BS&T business. You being a Moderator, did you even think about asking them privately before making your ponzi accusations?
I have done so, and have not been impressed at all with the responses that I've gotten. They mostly consist of the same type of implausible explanations made in public. If anyone reading this wishes to claim such special knowledge, you are welcome to send me a private message.

To date, nobody has been able to explain what these things are doing in a way that meets three criteria:

1) It doesn't require some people who invest to prosper at the expense of others who invest in the same enterprise.

2) It doesn't rely on something phenomenally implausible to be the case.

3) It doesn't have at its root some significant misunderstanding of how things work.

It's the same nonsense: arbitrage (fails 2), mining (fails 2 and 3), market manipulation (fails 3), unlimited supply of people willing to pay *way* too much for BTC (fails 2 and 3), perpetual growth (fails 1 and 3), multiple independent ventures that cancel out each other's weaknesses (fails 2 and 3).

Quoting this to bring it back to the front page.
I would love to hear an explanation that covers this without 1-3.

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.

Not sure if that is true morally, or legally. How do you come up with these things?

Depends where in the world you live, for some members it's certainly true.
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August 14, 2012, 12:01:58 PM
 #715

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.

Not sure if that is true morally, or legally. How do you come up with these things?

Depends where in the world you live, for some members it's certainly true.
LOL, "Mr pirate, I sentence you to 10 years Gulag for paying too high interest rates."
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August 14, 2012, 12:07:54 PM
 #716

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.

Not sure if that is true morally, or legally. How do you come up with these things?

Depends where in the world you live, for some members it's certainly true.
LOL, "Mr pirate, I sentence you to 10 years Gulag for paying too high interest rates."
Presuming he can pay everyone back, then the minimum would likely be an IRS investigation  Wink

If not, then the charges would be fraud-based, and in the millions of USD.
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August 14, 2012, 12:13:06 PM
 #717

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.

Not sure if that is true morally, or legally. How do you come up with these things?

Depends where in the world you live, for some members it's certainly true.
LOL, "Mr pirate, I sentence you to 10 years Gulag for paying too high interest rates."
Presuming he can pay everyone back, then the minimum would likely be an IRS investigation  Wink
Presuming he is not paying his taxes, can you estimate how much Bitcoins he will have to pay to the IRS?
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August 14, 2012, 12:16:09 PM
 #718

Bitcoin had some -10000% inflation over the last few years. Now good luck fitting Bitcoin into your fiat world view.
It is the obligation of everyone who asks other people for money to ensure that the people giving them money understand the terms under which they are taking that money. If you can't fit the arrangement into their world view, you have no business taking their money. In any event, there's no conceivable way anyone could pay those kinds of interest rates on borrowed funds denominated in Bitcoins while the price of Bitcoin is shooting upward. The only way to sustain those kinds of interest rates for months is if the exchange rate is relatively stable.

I am an employee of Ripple. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKatz
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August 14, 2012, 12:29:33 PM
 #719

Bitcoin had some -10000% inflation over the last few years. Now good luck fitting Bitcoin into your fiat world view.
It is the obligation of everyone who asks other people for money to ensure that the people giving them money understand the terms under which they are taking that money. If you can't fit the arrangement into their world view, you have no business taking their money. In any event, there's no conceivable way anyone could pay those kinds of interest rates on borrowed funds denominated in Bitcoins while the price of Bitcoin is shooting upward. The only way to sustain those kinds of interest rates for months is if the exchange rate is relatively stable.
See, everyone is free to invest with BS&T, no one is forced to do it. The conditions and terms are here. If you don't like it, don't invest.
The great thing about Bitcoin is that it is about personal freedom, and the last thing we need is to replace government oversight by some Micon/JoelKatz oversight.
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August 14, 2012, 12:50:35 PM
 #720

See, everyone is free to invest with BS&T, no one is forced to do it. The conditions and terms are here. If you don't like it, don't invest.
The great thing about Bitcoin is that it is about personal freedom
I completely agree.
Quote
and the last thing we need is to replace government oversight by some Micon/JoelKatz oversight.
Well, that's where you're wrong. *Precisely* what we need to do is replace government oversight with private oversight. Did you see the government doing anything about Madoff? They were practically a co-conspirator. It was private individuals who noticed how perfectly Madoff fit the profile of a Ponzi scheme who sounded the alarm.

I am an employee of Ripple. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKatz
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