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Author Topic: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"  (Read 108031 times)
finkleshnorts
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August 14, 2012, 03:56:20 AM
 #701

I really hate to bump a post, but I was hoping that someone who knows more about what pirate is doing knows something I don't. I raised some questions in the post linked, and it kind of got drowned out.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94900.msg1092056#msg1092056
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August 14, 2012, 05:40:31 AM
 #702

For those of us who aren't experts in the futures trading market, could you please explain how your theory might work? I am willing to be open-minded about this, so I'm all ears.

Also, we can easily check the BTC side of MtGox without them even assisting us, so the comparison isn't even close to valid. Because the BTC used by Pirate can move back and forth between USD and BTC, we cannot check those numbers without his assistance.

With Gox, I simply was trying to illustrate that coins can change hands without every actually being published in a public record.  To assert that the blockchain is the end all, be all, to prove a transaction.. well, its just wrong.
Yes, I believe that everyone on the audit team can agree with you there.
Now on to futures:

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract, "In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract between two parties to buy or sell a specified asset of standardized quantity and quality for a price agreed today (the futures price or strike price) with delivery and payment occurring at a specified future date, the delivery date."

Are you familiar with shorting a stock or buying a stock on margin?
Please, assume basic Wiki knowledge. Of course I'm familiar with shorting a stock and buying on margin.

I'm most curious about the following:
1) What about futures would have such a continuous need, regardless of whether the price is going up or down?
2) Why would such an exchange not be public?
3) Why is the need for bitcoins to be held continuously growing, especially with the price going up? Shouldn't it only go up as the price goes down?
4) Why wouldn't Pirate just request a loan for the bitcoins on-demand instead of holding them at a constant interest rate?

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August 14, 2012, 06:12:20 AM
 #703

Micon, why is bitdaytrade on the list. I couldn't care less, but having legit stuff on there kindof invalidates the whole list. At least give reasons.

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hgmichna
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August 14, 2012, 08:02:46 AM
 #704

It's pretty hilarious watching the Pirate-folk having their little meltdown and pulling out random poker statistics that have nothing to do with anything.

It will be especially funny seeing which ones will disappear after Pirate defaults. Greed is one helluva drug!

It is an old tactic you can observe here all the time. They are trying to water down or derail the thread, trying to prevent analysis of the Ponzi scheme.

It does not have any effect on intelligent readers.
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August 14, 2012, 08:16:26 AM
 #705

"7% therefore ponzi"

Make that: 3,300%, therefore Ponzi.

Those 7% per week are one of the pillars of this Ponzi scheme. It would not have taken off if the pirate had announced his interest payouts as 3,300%, because that would have raised some doubt even among the math-challenged, who are feeding this Ponzi scheme.

All the schemes who announce their interest rate in weekly or monthly figures are scams. Every serious business announces annual rates.

Let me say it again, because apparently it needs to be said from time to time:

Somebody who gives his money to an anonymous entity that promises 3,300% interest, but does not reveal any details about its business, is so utterly stupid that it boggles the mind. Conversely, the scammer is a criminal who belongs behind bars.

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.
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August 14, 2012, 08:32:03 AM
 #706

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.

Not sure if that is true morally, or legally. How do you come up with these things?
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August 14, 2012, 08:56:30 AM
 #707

Wouldn't it just be easier for people to show they're not scammers?
Against what proof?
As it stands there is nothing to defend against but baseless claims that don't need any defending against, perhaps I missed some proof amongst the 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' chants, because I've seen none backing up your accusations, so then, with such a lack of proof (And indeed, victims) i think "people" have shown they are not scammers.

What about the claim of "there is no evidence that your business has the required income to pay its incredible interest bill without eroding principle balances"?

Surely it's fairly easy in a currency in which all transactions are on public record in the blockchain to show that you're doing a substantial amount of business?

I mean, given the weekly interest bill, you'd expect BTCST to be doing at least 150k BTC per week in trades even if they were dealing in something with a very high profit margin. It shouldn't be difficult to show.
A lack of evidence is evidence of nothing, so, you have nothing but baseless claims, again please come up with something that isn't 1) "You don't know therefore ponzi" or 2) "7% therefore ponzi", there were some people a while ago trying to prove that pirate never moved any of the coins, I'm guessing they failed at that... Surely with all of your investigations and 36 pages of discussion you have SOMETHING right?
On the contrary, when it comes to Ponzis, a lack of evidence of anything is evidence of a Ponzi. It's also extremely easy to disprove if it's not a ponzi. As it is, there is no evidence that a business side of BS&T even exists. If I'm wrong about this, let me know.
So, anything you don't agree with we can ignore burden of proof and just go to lynching and make them submit?
Does that work both ways, can you prove you aren't a Russian spy? Obviously you must be as I see no evidence supporting anything else, and anything you say is exactly what a Russian spy would say (pre-emptive closing my eyes and ears and screaming lalalalalalala like you guys, you teach well).

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August 14, 2012, 09:09:48 AM
 #708

On the contrary, when it comes to Ponzis, a lack of evidence of anything is evidence of a Ponzi. It's also extremely easy to disprove if it's not a ponzi. As it is, there is no evidence that a business side of BS&T even exists. If I'm wrong about this, let me know.
Well, there are quite a few respected members of this very forum, that know exactly about the BS&T business. You being a Moderator, did you even think about asking them privately before making your ponzi accusations?
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August 14, 2012, 09:25:49 AM
 #709

Well, there are quite a few respected members of this very forum, that know exactly about the BS&T business. You being a Moderator, did you even think about asking them privately before making your ponzi accusations?
I have done so, and have not been impressed at all with the responses that I've gotten. They mostly consist of the same type of implausible explanations made in public. If anyone reading this wishes to claim such special knowledge, you are welcome to send me a private message.

To date, nobody has been able to explain what these things are doing in a way that meets three criteria:

1) It doesn't require some people who invest to prosper at the expense of others who invest in the same enterprise.

2) It doesn't rely on something phenomenally implausible to be the case.

3) It doesn't have at its root some significant misunderstanding of how things work.

It's the same nonsense: arbitrage (fails 2), mining (fails 2 and 3), market manipulation (fails 3), unlimited supply of people willing to pay *way* too much for BTC (fails 2 and 3), perpetual growth (fails 1 and 3), multiple independent ventures that cancel out each other's weaknesses (fails 2 and 3).

I am an employee of Ripple.
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August 14, 2012, 09:31:52 AM
 #710

One thing I've been thinking of. I am sure Pirate is running a ponzi scheme since every other alternative is exceedingly far-fetched. But I've been wondering about what is his profit goal. Is he keeping his internal books in USD or BTC? If in USD, he won't want to default even if his scheme grows too slow to pay all his (outgoing) interests, as long as the rising price of BTC against USD compensates for that. And has he already sold enough BTC and planned an exit strategy so that he can keep the scheme going until he's out of BTC? You see, he might think he's already rich enough and he might have a way to disappear so that no one can come after him. So, why not just wait and see how long it takes for the ponzi to collapse on its own?
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August 14, 2012, 10:12:17 AM
 #711

Pirate's turns growth in demand for bitcoins (ie USD flows to bitcoins) into bitcoins profit. That's why he needs massive (at bitcoin scale) capital.

Now back to ponziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

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August 14, 2012, 10:23:21 AM
 #712

Pirate's turns growth in demand for bitcoins (ie USD flows to bitcoins) into bitcoins profit. That's why he needs massive (at bitcoin scale) capital.

Now back to ponziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

I want to believe but what doesn't make sense to me is the fact he has to repay in bitcoins.

So he uses the bitcoins for large sales to investors only to then have to rebuy on the market + interest owed.
It doesn't add up.

The other point that doesn't make sense is why does he offer such a large interest rate ( he actually is paying above 7% to some VIP's) when all of his competitors pay much less than this.

Allot of things don't add up.

I want to believe. I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.

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August 14, 2012, 10:31:12 AM
 #713

One thing I've been thinking of. I am sure Pirate is running a ponzi scheme since every other alternative is exceedingly far-fetched. But I've been wondering about what is his profit goal. Is he keeping his internal books in USD or BTC? If in USD, he won't want to default even if his scheme grows too slow to pay all his (outgoing) interests, as long as the rising price of BTC against USD compensates for that. And has he already sold enough BTC and planned an exit strategy so that he can keep the scheme going until he's out of BTC? You see, he might think he's already rich enough and he might have a way to disappear so that no one can come after him. So, why not just wait and see how long it takes for the ponzi to collapse on its own?

You cannot rely on an ever-rising price of bitcoin. If this is another bubble, which is quite conceivable, then it may suddenly collapse and do so too quickly to get out at the top. We have seen this before.

So pirateat40 will continue as long as his stash, valued in dollar, grows, but he will, if he is not too stupid, be wary of unusually high bitcoin/dollar prices. Some people here think that a falling bitcoin price may trigger his exit, and that he has been selling bitcoin all the time, partly to get them out of the block chain and to launder them.

A falling bitcoin price may also indirectly trigger his exit, as some trend followers may want to sell their bitcoins, and for that they have to withdraw them first. (Trend-following is usually not a good strategy, by the way.)

Any big withdrawal order will also trigger his exit, as he will not pay out.

Why not just wait? It is a bit hard to watch a criminal go about his business of stealing money from unsuspecting people and do nothing about it. And with the incredible willingness of some stupid, math-challenged people to part with their money, we may have to wait a little longer, until the exponential curve finally cracks the Ponzi scheme.
finkleshnorts
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August 14, 2012, 10:35:04 AM
 #714


I want to believe but what doesn't make sense to me is the fact he has to repay in bitcoins.

So he uses the bitcoins for large sales to investors only to then have to rebuy on the market + interest owed.
It doesn't add up.


this this this this this,
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August 14, 2012, 10:37:03 AM
 #715

I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.
7% is not that easy. However, if your not too greedy and accept 6.9%, now, that is easy! Send your coins to bitcoinmax, and withdraw after a week. Voila, 6.9% for you.
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August 14, 2012, 10:38:22 AM
 #716

On the contrary, when it comes to Ponzis, a lack of evidence of anything is evidence of a Ponzi. It's also extremely easy to disprove if it's not a ponzi. As it is, there is no evidence that a business side of BS&T even exists. If I'm wrong about this, let me know.
Well, there are quite a few respected members of this very forum, that know exactly about the BS&T business. You being a Moderator, did you even think about asking them privately before making your ponzi accusations?

Stop bullshitting everybody here. How deep are you in it?

So "respected members" know about the BullShit Trust business? Name one. Then tell us all why a 3,300% annual interest business borrows money in the first place and how it gets such profits. Then, after you did not do that, shut up for good and, if you are indeed in it, think about how to avoid a jail term.
hgmichna
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August 14, 2012, 10:42:48 AM
 #717

The other point that doesn't make sense is why does he offer such a large interest rate ( he actually is paying above 7% to some VIP's) when all of his competitors pay much less than this.

Allot of things don't add up.

I want to believe. I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.

Stop even mentioning "7% per week". Name it the ordinary, proper way. It is 3,300% annually.

"7% per week" is a psychological trick for the mathematically challenged to make it sound believable, yet have them calculate how they will get rich quick.

No legitimate business quotes its interest rates per week or per month.
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August 14, 2012, 10:46:21 AM
 #718

7% is not that easy. However, if your not too greedy and accept 6.9%, now, that is easy! Send your coins to bitcoinmax, and withdraw after a week. Voila, 6.9% for you.

For the math-challenged, that is 3,100% per annum.

Of course the crooks won't ever say that, because they are after the kids who skipped maths at school.

Bitcoinmax is an integral part of the BullShit Trust Ponzi scheme.
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August 14, 2012, 10:58:06 AM
 #719

7% is not that easy. However, if your not too greedy and accept 6.9%, now, that is easy! Send your coins to bitcoinmax, and withdraw after a week. Voila, 6.9% for you.

For the math-challenged, that is 3,100% per annum.

Of course the crooks won't ever say that, because they are after the kids who skipped maths at school.

Bitcoinmax is an integral part of the BullShit Trust Ponzi scheme.
Oh, I see that some math gurus have troubles thinking in weeks.
Anyway, the pirate investment works in weeks, hence 7% a week. BS&T pays the interest every week, not every year. So you can withdraw after a single week, and still have those 7%.
Of course, Micon/hgmichna will claim that pirate will ponzi steal those coins out of your wallet, even after you have successfully withdrawn them.
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August 14, 2012, 11:09:43 AM
 #720

Pirate's turns growth in demand for bitcoins (ie USD flows to bitcoins) into bitcoins profit. That's why he needs massive (at bitcoin scale) capital.

Now back to ponziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

I want to believe but what doesn't make sense to me is the fact he has to repay in bitcoins.

So he uses the bitcoins for large sales to investors only to then have to rebuy on the market + interest owed.
It doesn't add up.

The other point that doesn't make sense is why does he offer such a large interest rate ( he actually is paying above 7% to some VIP's) when all of his competitors pay much less than this.

Allot of things don't add up.

I want to believe. I'm getting paid 6% PA from my bank for year. Would love to be getting 7% per week.

If you look at the exchange rate, you can see it's controlled (at least I cannot believe such steady rates is natural). If he controls the exchange rate, and as long as he has new clients, then he has no problem rebuying back the coins on the market because he is the market.

No the problem is: who are his "clients"?

The way I see it is that when he will stop (not default), it will be because volumes on the exchanges are becoming too big for him (ie good news for Bitcoin). And I have no problem with him having such an impact on the exchange rate because it can do this only as long s there is demand for bitcoins, and that if he exit now (or even if he try to crash the market), the demand will stil be there, and the market will go on, just more volatile. He controls the price, not the currency itself.

Now it might well be a ponzi, but the last two months led me to think it's not. The "ponzi campaign" seemed to work quite well, the withdrawal must have been large, according to GLBSE PPT rates and forum talks, yet he has been able to meet his obligations. He showed up publically in Vegas. After this meeting, Goat has started offering fully insured PPT (meaning he was confident). And so on.

So yes, I believe it is possible to have that kind of return, in bitcoins. But I won't insult you if you think otherwise...

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