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Author Topic: Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"  (Read 108077 times)
miscreanity
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August 02, 2012, 02:48:57 PM
 #321

Ok so Micon said that BTCS&T is in its final week or two. And looking at the prices of PPT bonds of GLBSE it's clear that a lot of people are withdrawing.

If BTCS&T works the way some have suggested, withdrawals will actually help by allowing high rates to continue longer than they normally would. Maybe we should be thanking team Ponzi?
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August 02, 2012, 03:08:09 PM
 #322

Ok so Micon said that BTCS&T is in its final week or two. And looking at the prices of PPT bonds of GLBSE it's clear that a lot of people are withdrawing.

So if in two weeks Pirate hasn't default, is still operating or has returned all the coins, will you stop with this ponzi talk or what?

Uh, if he returns *all* the coins, it's not a Ponzi by definition, so yes.

I would cover 2-to-1 he runs within 8 weeks though. (More than Pirate rates!)
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August 02, 2012, 03:08:28 PM
 #323

Ok so Micon said that BTCS&T is in its final week or two. And looking at the prices of PPT bonds of GLBSE it's clear that a lot of people are withdrawing.

If BTCS&T works the way some have suggested, withdrawals will actually help by allowing high rates to continue longer than they normally would. Maybe we should be thanking team Ponzi?

I do agree, I got some very good deal on GLBSE. A little more help and I might even get over 7% Cheesy

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August 02, 2012, 03:09:40 PM
 #324

Ok so Micon said that BTCS&T is in its final week or two. And looking at the prices of PPT bonds of GLBSE it's clear that a lot of people are withdrawing.

So if in two weeks Pirate hasn't default, is still operating or has returned all the coins, will you stop with this ponzi talk or what?

Uh, if he returns *all* the coins, it's not a Ponzi by definition, so yes.

I would cover 2-to-1 he runs within 8 weeks though. (More than Pirate rates!)

Yes, I should have said, if it continues operation, will this witch hunt stop?

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August 02, 2012, 03:14:53 PM
 #325

Ok so Micon said that BTCS&T is in its final week or two. And looking at the prices of PPT bonds of GLBSE it's clear that a lot of people are withdrawing.

So if in two weeks Pirate hasn't default, is still operating or has returned all the coins, will you stop with this ponzi talk or what?

Uh, if he returns *all* the coins, it's not a Ponzi by definition, so yes.

I would cover 2-to-1 he runs within 8 weeks though. (More than Pirate rates!)

Yes, I should have said, if it continues operation, will this witch hunt stop?

Of course not, don't be silly.

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August 02, 2012, 03:19:17 PM
 #326

Ok so Micon said that BTCS&T is in its final week or two. And looking at the prices of PPT bonds of GLBSE it's clear that a lot of people are withdrawing.

So if in two weeks Pirate hasn't default, is still operating or has returned all the coins, will you stop with this ponzi talk or what?

Uh, if he returns *all* the coins, it's not a Ponzi by definition, so yes.

I would cover 2-to-1 he runs within 8 weeks though. (More than Pirate rates!)

Yes, I should have said, if it continues operation, will this witch hunt stop?

No, but I will stop beating my wife.

Does it really bother you so much that folks point out his investment has all the characteristics of a scam?



miscreanity: in defense of Vandroiy, the imminent collapse of bitcoin theory has the advantage of not being economic nonsense.  If you're entering a period of hyperinflation, 7% is actually great rate. Vandroiy apparently doesn't believe that it wins Occam's razor, but it at least explains the observations. I don't think it's an intentionally cynical theory, it just happens to be a viable theory.

Alternative theories--say, that shadowy buyers are willing to pay substantial premiums for bitcoins week after week--don't really make sense because you have to buy back into bitcoin to repay the loans, and then some. It also runs into a problem that Pirates supporters emphasize how 100% legal he is (even though he used to joke about money laundering early on). Such transactions would look a helluvalot like structuring.
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August 02, 2012, 03:24:30 PM
 #327

Yes, I should have said, if it continues operation, will this witch hunt stop?


"i was like the boy that cried wolf.  but there was a wolf." - harry markopolos "madoff whistleblower"

harry markopolos is an investigator who spent ten years trying to expose Bernie Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme that scammed an estimated $18 billion from investors.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62L7VxMDg68
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August 02, 2012, 03:27:55 PM
 #328

I would cover 2-to-1 he runs within 8 weeks though. (More than Pirate rates!)

Here is an open bet.

Of course you could always create a new one that is more to your liking, but I am pretty sure you won't.
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August 02, 2012, 03:34:31 PM
 #329

I would cover 2-to-1 he runs within 8 weeks though. (More than Pirate rates!)

Here is an open bet.

Yeah; put as much on these bets as my fear of counterparty risk would allow.  There's another one that's about 6 and 6 with shorter time frames.

This one is a particularly amusing bet because it's completely irrational for pro-Pirate people to have put money on it--especially months ago.  If you believe it, you'd make much more on the Pirate than about even money.  Unless his supporters are astoundingly dumb (and I don't think they are), it seems likely that Pirate and his proxies dumped coins on that bet for publicity. See also the bet with Vandroiy.
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August 02, 2012, 03:36:35 PM
 #330

Ok so Micon said that BTCS&T is in its final week or two. And looking at the prices of PPT bonds of GLBSE it's clear that a lot of people are withdrawing.

So if in two weeks Pirate hasn't default, is still operating or has returned all the coins, will you stop with this ponzi talk or what?

Uh, if he returns *all* the coins, it's not a Ponzi by definition, so yes.

I would cover 2-to-1 he runs within 8 weeks though. (More than Pirate rates!)

Yes, I should have said, if it continues operation, will this witch hunt stop?

No, but I will stop beating my wife.

Does it really bother you so much that folks point out his investment has all the characteristics of a scam?

When you read it week after week, and when it contributes to a "bad vibe" in the forum, yes it can of bother me.



miscreanity: in defense of Vandroiy, the imminent collapse of bitcoin theory has the advantage of not being economic nonsense.  If you're entering a period of hyperinflation, 7% is actually great rate. Vandroiy apparently doesn't believe that it wins Occam's razor, but it at least explains the observations. I don't think it's an intentionally cynical theory, it just happens to be a viable theory.

Alternative theories--say, that shadowy buyers are willing to pay substantial premiums for bitcoins week after week--don't really make sense because you have to buy back into bitcoin to repay the loans, and then some. It also runs into a problem that Pirates supporters emphasize how 100% legal he is (even though he used to joke about money laundering early on). Such transactions would look a helluvalot like structuring.

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August 02, 2012, 03:45:15 PM
 #331

Does it really bother you so much that folks point out his investment has all the characteristics of a scam?

When you read it week after week, and when it contribute (in my eyes) to a "bad vibe" in the forum, yes it can of bother me.

I do sympathize.  OP seem similarly bothered that all of these schemes are posted under the heading "lending." Maybe we would all be a little happier if we took Matthew N. Wright's suggestion and move them to a subforum called "DEEP DARK HIGH RISK NO TRANSPARENCY THREATS TO YOUR MONEY." That would make any additional so-called FUD superfluous.

I'm happy to keep my Pirate skepticism confined to Pirate skepticism threads.  Except, of course, when BurtW shills it in the Newbie forum.  That just ain't right.
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August 02, 2012, 04:07:28 PM
 #332

If pirate hadnt locked his own thread ,it would have kept all the bitching in a nice neat and tidy place

people who dont trust him could state  their observations there and people who do trust him could defend the scheme but now its taken over every thread and a poker player  is trying to make himself famous on the back of it for some reason

locking pirates thread was only going to cause multiple new ones ,a subject like a btcst possible ponzi or not was never going to be hushed by simply  locking a thread .....
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August 02, 2012, 04:13:06 PM
 #333

If pirate hadnt locked his own thread ,it would have kept all the bitching in a nice neat and tidy place

people who dont trust him could state  their observations there and people who do trust him could defend the scheme but now its taken over every thread and a poker player  is trying to make himself famous on the back of it for some reason

locking pirates thread was only going to cause multiple new ones ,a subject like a btcst possible ponzi or not was never going to be hushed by simply  locking a thread .....

Even before the thread was locked, it wasn't kept into one little nice place. Plus, that wouldn't have stopped Micon's topic as he thinks that the majority of investments are Ponzis on the forum.
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August 02, 2012, 04:17:26 PM
 #334

Here is a BitTorrent magnet link for the movie Chasing Madoff.

Worth watching, in my view. It is a documentary, approximately 1:30 h long.

Unfortunately this forum does not recognize the magnet protocol, so you'll have to feed it into your BitTorrent client in some other way. For example, in µTorrent you use the command File, Add Torrent from URL..., then you copy the following magnet link into the dialog box (one line):

magnet:?xt=urn:btih:00552b8d379a0eed0f6e252816560d593a8f56e4&dn=Chasing+Madoff+2010+DVDRip+XviD-WiDE&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.openbittorrent.com%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.publicbt.com%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.istole.it%3A6969&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.ccc.de%3A80
imsaguy
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August 02, 2012, 04:17:38 PM
 #335


Does it really bother you so much that folks point out his investment has all the characteristics of a scam?


There's a difference between saying it has the characteristics of a scam and saying it IS a scam.  Perhaps you should explain that to everyone saying it IS a ponzi vs it has the characteristics of a ponzi.

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CoinCidental
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August 02, 2012, 04:24:30 PM
 #336

Here is a BitTorrent magnet link for the movie Chasing Madoff.

Worth watching, in my view. It is a documentary, approximately 1:30 h long.

Unfortunately this forum does not recognize the magnet protocol, so you'll have to feed it into your BitTorrent client in some other way. For example, in µTorrent you use the command File, Add Torrent from URL..., then you copy the following magnet link into the dialog box (one line):

magnet:?xt=urn:btih:00552b8d379a0eed0f6e252816560d593a8f56e4&dn=Chasing+Madoff+2010+DVDRip+XviD-WiDE&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.openbittorrent.com%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.publicbt.com%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.istole.it%3A6969&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.ccc.de%3A80

heres an easier one :
http://thepiratebay.se/torrent/7183606/Chasing_Madoff_2010_DVDRip_XviD-WiDE
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August 02, 2012, 04:25:41 PM
 #337

Inside information from which evil genius? The adaptive nature of the network makes that extremely unlikely.

You work for the U.S. Department of Justice.  You know that in mid August, FBI agents are going to seize all exchanges in the US, charge the operators with money laundering, arrest five of the largest dealers on SR, arrest 25 of the largest customers, and announce that the UIGEA will be applied vigorously against any US financial institution that conveys money to a bitcoin exchange.

In this hypothetical, I think it's fair to say you would want to take bitcoin loans in early August!

I agree that Pirate's rates are so exorbitant that even inside such knowledge would not assure he could cover the loans over this long time scale, so I agree that this "legitimate" scheme is unlikely.
miscreanity
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August 02, 2012, 04:34:35 PM
 #338

miscreanity: in defense of Vandroiy, the imminent collapse of bitcoin theory has the advantage of not being economic nonsense.  If you're entering a period of hyperinflation, 7% is actually great rate. Vandroiy apparently doesn't believe that it wins Occam's razor, but it at least explains the observations. I don't think it's an intentionally cynical theory, it just happens to be a viable theory.

Alternative theories--say, that shadowy buyers are willing to pay substantial premiums for bitcoins week after week--don't really make sense because you have to buy back into bitcoin to repay the loans, and then some. It also runs into a problem that Pirates supporters emphasize how 100% legal he is (even though he used to joke about money laundering early on). Such transactions would look a helluvalot like structuring.

I've had Vandroiy on ignore for quite a while now, although I may sneak a peak based on what you brought up. Are you referring to a Bitcoin return at 7% being great during fiat hyperinflation, or are you suggesting Bitcoin is going into HI? Either way, please clarify as to whether you mean price increase or expansion of money supply.

Ok - for the premium buyers, it doesn't have to be much of a premium, or any at all. And they don't have to be shadowy either. As long as the relative value of Bitcoin continues to rise due to capital inflows from external demand, Pirate can acquire at any price and be assured gains. By a loose estimate, the past two months have seen about 7% weekly gains in price. Curious...

Check the math - from late May to now, 10 weeks since $5:

1.07^10=1.967

1.967*5=9.835

The price right now at Gox? Just shy of $9.80 Smiley

"i was like the boy that cried wolf.  but there was a wolf." - harry markopolos "madoff whistleblower"

harry markopolos is an investigator who spent ten years trying to expose Bernie Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme that scammed an estimated $18 billion from investors.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62L7VxMDg68

The difference, from Wikipedia:

Quote
Harry M. Markopolos (born October 22, 1956) is a former securities industry executive and independent financial fraud investigator for institutional investors and others seeking forensic accounting expertise. He has received public acclaim for uncovering evidence over a period of nine years that Bernard Madoff's wealth management business was actually a massive Ponzi scheme.

Micon has not shown anything but circumstantial claims, often fitting patterns out of context. The same goes for everyone else so far. It isn't without reason, just without evidence.

Further:

Quote
He also couldn't find any evidence the market was responding to any Madoff trades, even though by his estimate Madoff was running as much as $6 billion—far more money than any known hedge fund even then. In Markopolos' mind, this suggested that Madoff wasn't even trading.

The evidence is strongly in favor of Pirate on this one, especially with what happened three weeks ago. In addition to the persistent stability since the beginning of 2012, there's a greater likelihood that Pirate has been using the funds for arbitrage and the other purposes he lists than running a scam.

Micon could take a few steps back from zealotry and compile a list of 'high risk' investment opportunities instead of making assertions one way or the other, or a new forum subcategory as MNW & Frankie suggested. Though I have to admit, he and team Ponzi have been a good amount of entertainment the past few days. It's always good to rehash the concepts at times as well.
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August 02, 2012, 04:38:07 PM
 #339

Inside information from which evil genius? The adaptive nature of the network makes that extremely unlikely.

You work for the U.S. Department of Justice.  You know that in mid August, FBI agents are going to seize all exchanged in the US, charge the operators with money laundering, arrest five of the largest dealers on SR, arrest 25 of the largest customers, and announce that the UIGEA will be applied vigorously against any US financial institution that conveys money to a bitcoin exchange.

In this hypothetical, I think it's fair to say you would want to take bitcoin loans in early August!

I agree that Pirate's rates are so exorbitant that even inside such knowledge would not assure he could cover the loans over this long time scale, so I agree that this "legitimate" scheme is unlikely.

Now that's more like it. I'd just wonder how Pirate knew he'd be raided a month in advance. Plus, unless everyone with access to the dead man contingency were incapacitated, the funds could still be returned.
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August 02, 2012, 04:41:29 PM
 #340


Now that's more like it. I'd just wonder how Pirate knew he'd be raided a month in advance. Plus, unless everyone with access to the dead man contingency were incapacitated, the funds could still be returned.

Or the wallet.dat's are seized before the contingency can be executed.

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
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