yes I also clicked this link, actually hoping thered be some reasoning behind it but no, its another newbie spreading fud  |
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Owning shares in an ETF is not the same as owning real bitcoin. Don't be mislead by prices quoted for these paper instruments.
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It could still be interesting to plot some lines that leave out the gox-times. The theory that the price of BTC was artificially inflated by Gox in 2013 is still pretty widely accepted / considered. This could mean a lower bottom, although it may be difficult to find that, because traditional TA would most likely fail trying to pinpoint it.
I'd say price without 'artificial' inflation by gox trading bots might have still bubbled. Fear and greed are what really drive bubbles. But the trading bots might have helped spark it off. Imagine there had been no bubbles then price might have looked a bit more like this green line (which I have just sketched in very roughly).  |
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I dont' undersand the analysis, for a start how can you get a cheaper means of production of bitcoin? The difficulty will automatically adjust to keep production steady and at predefined rate. Another trouble with that analysis is that bitcoin also gets value from other things than just the number of transactions. Maybe its just me ..  |
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I guess from all i've absorbed, i don't think this is a reversal. Yeah sure, we might go up a bit, but we got to test the $200 lows proper! Also, some here calling bull have had a poor history in forecasting moves. Like when we were at $300 and they called out for $360. Some good names to follow IMO, Ryan, Chessnut, David Alcindor, DanV, afbitcoins (very good for mid to long term trends). I could be wrong  Thanks for including me in your list I'm already aware of some of those other names too. Its a good point to listen to variety of ideas. While its true at the moment that we are still obviously in the downtrend from quick glance at the initial log chart at top of this thread, I will mention why I think we may have already seen the bottom. For this I look at lower green line on this chart showing linear price scale. This line has been hit by lows on the April 2013 'mini' bubble, the silk road panic sell off and it looks like the wierd btc-e flash crash also hit that line. Latest time it was hit is what I've been calling the bottom. On linear price scale it is no longer obvious that we are in down trend, it looks to be flattening off with several bearish trendlines already broken.  |
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Hi Afrikoin thanks for your input, although I think we've already seen the bottom I appreciate your contrary argument. Can you explain that last chart a bit though?
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LOL who would have expected that! Total supririse.
Sorry i'm laughing my *ss off here.
kwukduck this collapse of a huge $4 is a great buying opportunity. Buy when there is blood in the streets. go long my friend. join in the fun |
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I'm not capitulating. I'm accumulating. Like a whale but little. Not even as big as a dolphin. An accumulating tiddler. kwuckduck and fonzie make me laugh. Are they the same person by any chance ?
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For fun heres some extra bullishness, is there an inverse head n shoulders near completion ?  |
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I arrive at similar trendlines. My guess is that we need to cross at least $265 currently, in order to confirm a first breakout attempt out of the bear market. Definitely crossing $315 would be the final confirmation needed to end the bear trend. Of course this is just my opinion and those numbers keep going down every day.
yep some of those lines are very clear. Will be some tough resistance to get past on upper red line but I think we will, possibly after being wedged under it for a while first. |
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Heres another observation that just occurred to me. Notice how up until Nov last year the spike on the candles were pointing down as weak hands panic sell. Since then they now spike up, as whales accumulate
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The bears have had all the fun in the last year but is the end in sight ? At the moment market is awash with pessimism and negativity. Perfect time for a bottom to confound investors.  Chart is showing data from BTC-E exchange, using log price scale. If bitcoin rallies up to the top of the bullish channel (marked in pruple lines) it will be finally pushing free from the bubble collapse. |
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Is an ETF good for bitcoin? I feel no it is not. Long term will be harmful to bitcoin in fact. Yes in the short term it may instigate a bull run. (It may even be a staggeringly big one) However longer term ETFs will be used to manipulate and suppress price and counter the threat to govt fiat and dampen enthusiasm.
Its not hard to see the parallel. Just as in gold and silver markets, investors are herded into paper shares ie GLD and SLV ETFs the same will become true with bitcoin. But if the ETF is not honest about increasing its own reserves why people buy the ETF then the reality is that that investment money did not reduce bitcoin supply and therefore does not put pressure on price to rise.
In my idealistic vision of bitcoin, people would own real bitcoin and not any derivatives of bitcoin which are in reality a means to control the market Auditing Bitcoin is fairly easy. Auditing gold is very, very hard. A Bitcoin ETF can simply put a bit of data on their website to all but prove their reserves to everyone. Besides relying on a third-party audit, which can be gamed if the government is involved, all a gold ETF can do to persuade people is to put things like gold bar serial numbers up, which of course can be gamed in many ways easily. It's also much easier and much cheaper to take delivery in BTC than gold. I see no reason why people would allow fractional reserve, especially once BTC is easier to hold, and also given all the people who want to hold it in other countries, don't want US juridictional risk, etc. Even assuming the worst case scenario where no one ends up caring and the ETFs operate on 10x reserve, it can at most reduce "the moon" by tenfold. $100,000 per coin instead of a $1 million. Realistically it's quite a bit less, since it's not like everyone in the world is going to buy the ETF instead of actual coins. But an ETF accounting for a huge amount of the base BTC supply itself implies a great jump in adoption, from which we could already expect a 10x in the price easily. So I think worst case, with the assistance of corrupt auditors and government complicity, they might be able to hold back a year or two of gains. After that, fractional reserve has its limits, especially as Bitcoin gains more market uses so that people actually need to withdraw it. Hi Zanglebert Thanks for that reply, thats quite reassuring. I thought about the transparency aspect a bit more after writing original version of my comment. In a way I'm not sure why people would buy an etf for bitcoin, I guess some people are just conditioned to do all their investing via one vehicle ie whatever sharebroker they like to use or something. To me I can't help thinking that surely if you are competent enough to buy share in an ETF is not really harder to buy some actual bitcoin. ps nice to see you on the forums, feels like ages since we chewed the fat. |
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Is an ETF good for bitcoin? I worry no it is not. Long term will be harmful to bitcoin in fact. In the short term it may instigate a bull run as the ETF accumulates bitcoin for its reserve. (It may even be a staggeringly big one) However longer term ETFs could be used to manipulate and suppress price and counter the threat to govt fiat and dampen enthusiasm.
Its not hard to see the parallel. Just as in gold and silver markets, investors are herded into paper shares ie GLD and SLV instead of going and buying physical bullion, the same will become true with bitcoin. But if the ETF is not honest about increasing its own reserves why people buy the ETF then the reality is that that investment money did not reduce bitcoin supply and therefore does not put pressure on price to rise.
Unless theres something about blockchain technology which will force the ETF to be completely transparent about its holdings ?
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Yet another post claiming what the price will be with ZERO evidence to support it.
WHY ?
The price will be less than $100 by the end of the year
WHY ?
If you have no fucking reasons then stop wasting my time.
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I suggest you all stay a way from bitcoin, Patrick Byrne The CEO of Overstock is going to be forced to resign for his stupid mistake of keeping some bitcoins from bitpay, The error caused the company over 80% losses in 2014 & 2015. Tim draper is humiliated by being called "bitcoin loser" by his friends of the billions club. Fortunately he still has billions. The Fortress Investment Group LLC and Pantera capital are also being called "shitcoin investors" because of their foolish 20$ millions bitcoin investment plan. If you don't know yet, "bitcoin" is a negative word in the real world, do not talk about "bitcoin" in family/friends gathering, you will be isolated and treated as "online criminals and ponzi sellers" for this foolish behavior. No one want to lose money or be connected with internet laundering money after all. Especially don't talk about it in work, you might even get fired. Most(99+%) big amount bitcoin early owners are criminals (hackers,drug dealers,scammer,pedophiles etc), do you want to make Mark Karpeles, Loaded, FBI etc.. even richer with your money? NO, then don't buy bitcoin! If you really have to cheat someone to buy your bags, Please do that to some one you don't know well, ie: scam some strangers & newbies on the internet forum to buy with a "train" "moon" false hope. You might have already ruined your financial life, just don't mess up your real social life too. Got fired for talking about Bitcoin last night http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/33u5gw/so_i_almost_got_fired_for_talking_about_bitcoin/Threads like this are very bullish |
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log chart with some lines on it.
if we do fall to bottom of it that channel it is still unlikely price will drop below $100. However for reasons I've given elsewhere I suspect we already saw the bottom. I give zero chance of seeing $30 bitcoin. Looking forward to bitcoin busting up through top of that channel which could be the start of something huge
what is the basis of your dark green support line? I see it cuts across, but, where does it begin? Green line is showing rough area where support has been found I guess starting with the collapse of the April 2013 mini bubble. |
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log chart with some lines on it. if we do fall to bottom of it that channel it is still unlikely price will drop below $100. However for reasons I've given elsewhere I suspect we already saw the bottom. I give zero chance of seeing $30 bitcoin. Looking forward to bitcoin busting up through top of that channel which could be the start of something huge  |
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Heres support line showing why I think price unlikely to go below $180. Look at lower green trendline  Linear charts on $1000 price moves? Hmm I agree log chart gives a different perspective .  However both views lead me to think its unlikely bitcoin will fall very far below $200 |
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