...
I think by asking if somebody should take the bet in your hypothetical scenario, it misses the point of why we should take spots that are +EV. It wouldn't really matter if you're just allowed to be in a +EV spot just once then nothing. It's all about the long run and taking on enough of these spots to make some profit.
But if you're just asking for the sake of asking..? Sure, why not, it's like a value bet for a mispriced underdog spot in sports betting.
Not sure if I understand you correctly. Of course it does matter (a lot) if you only have one opportunity of making a single +EV bet. If you could do it multiple times then it's a no brainer - absolutely everyone would take such chance. But when there's no guarantee that similar opportunities will ever arise - that's a whole different story, after all, you are still more likely to lose than to win, so there's also a logic behind not taking that bet. As mentioned in the posts above - I'd be definitely in favour of taking a bet, but not sure what would be the most sensible approach in determining the right stake for it (or for mispriced underdogs in sports bets). What I'm trying to say is what would be the point of asking for such an exercise if you're just allowed to bet once then nothing? It would be pointless talking about EV if you're just allowed to bet once. EV in gambling is the amount of money won a certain bet makes on average. 'On average' is a key phrase here as it means it isn't just making one bet. It's about taking these +EV spots as much as possible and coming out ahead in the long run. And it shouldn't be from a small sample size either, it should be from a large sample size to even things out and minimize variance from the equation. It should be a repetitive bet over a large sample to achieve this... EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04 |
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So it looks like they like their MMA around after lunch in Japan. Lol. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/94453-rizin-40So it looks like the real schedule is set. Rizin 40 starts at 12:00am ET, so that's 1:00pm in Japan. And since it's a 9 bout event, that's gonna last around three hours making Bellator vs Rizin event start around 4:00pm in Japan. And good news, there's a betting market for all 9 bouts.  https://stake.com/sports/mma/rizin-ff/rizin-40I don't know who these guys are but I think we could be +EV to parlay most of these favorites together into two legs each. |
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Right now I am really frustrated because we got no event this holiday end, but surely next year will be a great year for us because at the start of the year we will be having the UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Gastelum event, and from that event, for me, I am anticipating the Geoff Neal VS Shavkat Rakhmonov fight to be a real banger, and next event was UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill surely the main event will be juicy, and this is their trilogy fight and it will surely settle the score if who really deserves the title belt, The UFC 284 | Makhachev vs. Volkanovski event that will have so much juicy and well-known fight plus the UFC Fight Night | Vera vs. Sandhagen for me is surely a wait to behold,
Yup, Rakhmonov is pretty good. I fancy him getting a title shot anytime during 2023 and could even win depending on who sits as the champ. A couple more high level fights and he's right up there. I just hope the UFC won't do a prospect vs prospect match up and have him go against Chimaev like what they did with Topuria vs Mitchell. The fight between Volkanovski and Makhachev is rather strange, because if you see Volkanovski opponents, most of them pure strikers or fighters whos striking skills were primary. Makhachev is a very inconvenient opponent for Volkanovski. Not to mention that Makhachev is 10sm higher than Volkanovski. A lot of factors is against Volkanovski. I was actually very surprised that Makhachev challenged Volkanovski after his victory over Oliveira, and how Alexander quickly accepted that challenge.
Volk went against Brian Ortega and escaped from a mounted guilloutine which like should never happen. Lol. It pretty much shows how tooough Volk is. I got Makhachev to win but it could be close than what the lines suggest. I wouldn't touch Makhachev in a single at anything lower than 1.50. |
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 My Prediction: This might lead to a leg down and that will mark the bottom of this cycle.  If there's another leg down, then the more important question is how low will it be and how long will the trend be? Based on my gut feelz, I don't think BTC is gonna drop lower by a lot as sellers are exhausted me thinks...  And as for how long, I'm thinking not too long. Check your chart at 2015 and 2019. We could already be at the lowest point or near it that going another leg lower won't even matter anymore because it won't be that huge. Dunno... As I said, it's all based on my gut feelz. Lol. |
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Hypothetical scenario:
You can bet on a single dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if you win you get paid x12 of your stake (instead of x6).
So the Expected Value is positive (see example below), but you'd still have 83% chance of losing.
1 - will you take that bet?
2 - if so, what % of your available funds would you put at stake (i.e. funds you're willing to gamble and afford to lose)?
Again, this is a single, non-repetitive bet.
-----------------------
Simulation for BTC1 bet:
EV = (83% x -BTC1) + (17% x BTC11) = +BTC1.04
Edit: calculation corrected, credit to Saint-loup
I think by asking if somebody should take the bet in your hypothetical scenario, it misses the point of why we should take spots that are +EV. It wouldn't really matter if you're just allowed to be in a +EV spot just once then nothing. It's all about the long run and taking on enough of these spots to make some profit. But if you're just asking for the sake of asking..? Sure, why not, it's like a value bet for a mispriced underdog spot in sports betting. |
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Set a budget: It is important to decide how much money you are willing to spend on gambling in advance and stick to that budget. This can help you avoid overspending or getting carried away.
Choose your games wisely: Some games have a higher house edge than others, which means that the casino or other gambling establishment has a greater advantage. Choose games that have a lower house edge, such as blackjack or craps, if you want to increase your chances of winning.
Practice good money management: It is important to manage your money well when gambling, which means not betting more than you can afford to lose and being careful not to chase your losses.
Stay sober: Alcohol can impair your judgment and make it more likely that you will make poor decisions while gambling. It is important to stay sober while gambling to help ensure that you are making decisions based on clear thinking.
Bankroll management is key above all the criteria. I also want to add that there are games that can make you have the edge at any given moment if you work hard in acquiring the skills and the knowledge needed to get +EV everytime you play. These games are poker and sports betting. It's just a matter of choosing your spots well and having the skills to win more consistently. And what's fun with sports betting is you don't have to stay sober after you've made your bet. You can be as drunk as fk as the games happen. |
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Nunez's performance made me appreciate Timo and Lukaku even more; he's had 16 chances to score this season and has missed 12 of them. Whoever convinced Liverpool to pay 100 million pounds for Nunez deserves an Oscar. He is failing to finish all the time. Although the assist for the last goal was amazing. If Nunez was scoring then we could have half a dozen of goals today. However, he was not given the assist. If Nunez had been the 2pac shooter, 2Pac would still be alive today. I'm hoping he doesn't miss out on training.  Lololol! C'mon man be nice to the guy cos who knows, his second season could be way better than how he's playing right now. I mean it's his first year in the big leagues and he's just 23 years old. I think he deserves a couple more years to bloom and shine in the EPL. That and there's no way Liverpool could sell him with his price tag they acquired him for. Lol. As for the pool, I think I give up. I'm 26 points off the top and everytime I make my picks, I don't know what I'm doing half the time. I think I should start looking more closely into the stats as much as I used to. I used to take hours looking into Soccerstats a couple of years back. I don't want to tell you my secret cause you will copy it for the next year pool but I do something that I am always near the prize standings,last year I lost it for 2 points from the last price,this year I am in a good position at 12 points from the top so far so chances are high. Since you don't know what you are doing half of the time why just not going to websites like this one freesupertips.com and put the tips that they put,sometimes they hit it really big although most of the times they don't do well and with that I just told you 30% of my secret . C'mooon! What's the whole secret? Is it also waiting for most everybody to make their picks check where the top guys' positions are in the prediction page and guess which score lines they made? Loool. I know there are some of you out there. And those free tips are good to get some idea on what's going on currently with a team but our pool tries to predict the correct scores which is really something harder to do. It needs a bit more enthusiasm to watch all these fixtures which I used to do. I watched all the replays of the matches, checked the stats and took notes. Lol. I had one good year betting on the EPL, around 5 years ago. The rest were meh and I kinda got jaded and lazy. |
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And I also think that Covington versus Edwards is going to be a good pay per view on generator for the UFC. But the question is, is that going to happen?
It could be as the event is gonna be in London. The crowd over there are louder, rowdier and overall just more fun. But what's interesting with this match up is the way it was set up. I got Covington as the more likely winner here and if he does win, it sets up another rematch against Usman... And this time it's gonna be Covington holding the belt. Either could win but I don't think Edwards could handle Covington's pressure. The loser of the match gets to fight Chimaev. Lmao. I think you got confused. You're talking about Islam Makhachev. And yes, Volk is moving up to 155 and is going for Makhachev's belt. And if Volk wins, he gets to be double champ. One title at 145 and another one at 155. If Makhachev wins then he defended his belt at 155 and Volk doesn't lose his belt at 145. That's how it works.
This is going to be fight to watch and not miss, but changing category and moving up can often be hard for fighters. First thing I think is how Adesanya looked weaker when he moved to test himself in light heavyweight category. Volkanovski has slight reach advantage but Makhachev is much taller and he has Khabib in his corner, and Khabib's father said that Makhacev is his best student. My early predictions and bet would be on Islam Makhachev to win, but many things can change until then. I think Makhachev is levels above everybody in the UFC. We'll be seeing him hold the 155 belt for a long time imho. |
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At this point I’m holding till it hits 5000 or crashes to zero. Traded early and my original investment has already been taken out. Not sure I’ll buy back in. It seems the crypto craze is dying out. I’m waiting to see the next pump, but starting to feel like it might go the way of nft’s
Pretty sure the next bull market is gonna take ETH over 5k and prolly go high enough to make everybody think of a real flippening? I feel like it could the be time when ETH really starts pushing the boundaries to snatch the no. 1 spot in CMC. The odds are against it and it will fail in getting the spot but it could at least make it close enough to be a threat. That I think will be one of the next bull market's biggest surprises.  The other one could be like you said... NFT's. And my bets are any NFT with a doge in them. As I said before, if Elon Musks as much as sneezes about DOGE or any coin with a dog logo, there's a high chance some doge NFT's get some money coming into them too. |
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Well thanks to John Foss' newsletter here is the tech info for Seraphis: https://gist.github.com/UkoeHB/f508a6ad973fbf85195403057e87449eAnd for Jamtis... the new addressing scheme: https://gist.github.com/tevador/50160d160d24cfc6c52ae02eb3d17024These are mammoth consensus changes in my opinion. Monero has always had a somewhat progressive approach to consensus level changes. I am not technical enough to know what the risks are (and I am pretty technical). But I can see well enough that this stuff is going to introduce a lot of possibility of risk. I am not trying to FUD by any means.. and the Monero community has ALWAYS had an environment welcoming dubious opinion. So I am stating a firsh blush opinion that I hope the right amount of caution is being taken in introducing these changes. I think it would be naive to assume that there are not powerful, smart, actors that would love to change monero in a way that would cause it to have a chink in it's armor. How do we know that consensus changes of this level are not exactly that? Here's something I wondering about... First just to let you guys know, I haven't been reading a whole lot of info about XMR in Reddit and Twitter for more around 4 years now, my Twitter account is now exclusively following some guys doing MMA prediction stuff and I've unfollowed everybody in crypto. The only guy I tag or ping in crypto is Fluffy and that's just in tweets that are related to helping dogs. Anyway, the thing I'm wondering about is if Fluffy supports the changes or not... |
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^ Same thoughts here about Mitrovic or at least that's what some football journos were saying and I believed it. I had Crystal Palace to win 1 - 0 in our pool and thinking Zaha is gonna score the goal of the match. :/ These couple of weeks after the World Cup are gonna be slightly unpredictable for club football. Maybe not with the big clubs but more with the mid tier clubs...
I'd say the results of Everton vs the Wolves and Crystal Palace vs Fullham were slightly unexpected. And that 2 - 2 draw with Brentford vs Tottenham. Lol. A lot of guys were going for an away win in that match. I'd say Chelsea vs Bournemouth too could end up with a 2 - 2.
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Chimaev seems to be ready for anyone and even said he would fight Pereira for a title, take it, and then go down to welterweight for Covington if Dana White will pursue that kind of path.
The date was said to be in March, and Covington had not fought for 9 months, it will be a year of rest in March 2023. So I think he will be the one Chimaev will face.
In UFC 284 Chimaev will fight with Volkanovski in lightweight division, so Chimaev is risk his title right? which mean if Volkanovski win, he will get lightweight title, if he lose he wouldn't lose anything? also does Volkanovski lost his belt since he's lower his division? I'm not quite understand about this matter. It looks like, there's will be a lower champion will fight with higher champion due to lack of tough fighter. I think you got confused. You're talking about Islam Makhachev. And yes, Volk is moving up to 155 and is going for Makhachev's belt. And if Volk wins, he gets to be double champ. One title at 145 and another one at 155. If Makhachev wins then he defended his belt at 155 and Volk doesn't lose his belt at 145. That's how it works. And yup, Volk really has fought almost everybody at the top in his weight class that he needs to move up and fight at 155. It's good timing too imho. When was the last time we had a couple of champs in the cage? |
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Nunez's performance made me appreciate Timo and Lukaku even more; he's had 16 chances to score this season and has missed 12 of them. Whoever convinced Liverpool to pay 100 million pounds for Nunez deserves an Oscar. He is failing to finish all the time. Although the assist for the last goal was amazing. If Nunez was scoring then we could have half a dozen of goals today. However, he was not given the assist. If Nunez had been the 2pac shooter, 2Pac would still be alive today. I'm hoping he doesn't miss out on training. Lololol! C'mon man be nice to the guy cos who knows, his second season could be way better than how he's playing right now. I mean it's his first year in the big leagues and he's just 23 years old. I think he deserves a couple more years to bloom and shine in the EPL. That and there's no way Liverpool could sell him with his price tag they acquired him for. Lol. As for the pool, I think I give up. I'm 26 points off the top and everytime I make my picks, I don't know what I'm doing half the time. I think I should start looking more closely into the stats as much as I used to. I used to take hours looking into Soccerstats a couple of years back. |
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Ferrari still have quite much time until the launch of their new season car. I don't know if they would show anything about the power of the car. Maybe we would barely be able to see it by the beginning of testing sessions. They need to give the best car they can to Leclerc and Sainz this time. I don't know if it's still confirmed, but I had read that Ferrari would have an engine with 30 more horsepower for the 2023 Formula 1 season, a result achieved with an "innovative solution" in the design of the unit. Furthermore, they promised to "attack" and solve the reliability problems that so plagued Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz this last season. Ferrari's problems arose because they needed to "pump" their engine to the maximum before the blockade that affected all teams, but now, by the rules, they can still make some adjustments to try to solve the problems that remain, and that's what they want extract that extra power. I still have hope that Ferrari will perform well in 2023, I really root for this team and hope that it can match Mercedes. Ferrari indeed have the potential to prepare the fastest car on the grid now. This isn't the thing they didn't do before. The beginning of last season was just like that. But we all wonder how consistent they would be later on. Because they gave big hopes to Tifosis after that solid start but disappointed them in a short time after. This time they could find Mercedes as a very strong opponent in the title race together with Red Bull as well. This would fire up the competition even more so Ferrari don't have the luxury of making big mistakes. I pretty much doubt Ferrari would have the engine for 30 more horse power. Lol. That's prolly just some journos from somewhere trying to hype the next season and make all the Ferrari fans hopeful. If there's a team that's gonna challenge for a title next season, it's def Mercedes imho. They have the best engineering team in F1. With Ferrari, who's building their car? The guy who built them the best cars resigned. Anyway... 68 days to go before 'lights out' in Bahrain! |
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⚽️ Majestic 7 | Premier League | We're back ⚽️  #PL is back. #Majestic 7 is back. Now you have a chance to snap that $10,000 for free - ampera Missed making the picks but on top of my head, for these fixtures I'd be picking Toney, Zaha, Trossard, Callum Wilson, Calvert Lewin, Ings and Havertz. I swear I didn't check the goal scorers of the matches happening now or that I've checked the stats. I haven't been watching any of the fixtures happening now either. But yeah, let's see how my picks do after these matches. Fk me if I get all 7 right. :/ Anyway, good luck to all your Majestic 7 picks. I'll try getting it this weekend. |
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^ At Tapology the schedule says it's gonna be on Dec 31 at 8:00pm ET, the usual schedule for many UFC PPV events. But there's gonna be a tape delay with the US broadcast. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/94478-bellator-mma-vs-rizinIn some sites it says Rizin 40 starts at Dec 31 at 4:00am ET then it's immediately followed by Bellator vs Rizin event. It's prolly going to be a couple of hours after. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/94453-rizin-40So yeah... Since the event is held in Japan, it makes sense. Rizin 40 gonna start late in the afternoon in Japan around 5:00pm and Bellator vs Rizin around 7:00pm - 8:00pm of Dec 31. |
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I see a couple of guys forgot to make their picks for Spurs game today, here is tag for the regulars that I know usernames by heart. Those other few that have different usernames will hopefully find their own way to the pool: @tomahawk9 @tokeweed @Welsh @icopress You guys still have time to catch main kick off time. Spurs played as expected, waited to get 2:0 down before starting to play and in the end got 2:2 draw. Always nice to open the league with perfect score after the long break. And I also had both to score on the ticket so hopefully this is a beginning of some good things for me Trofo and igehhh, feeling proud of yourselves?
Not particularly, this one and 2:0 for Arsenal were only 2 scores I was somewhat confident about when making them. As I said, went just like I expected it. Even down to exactly one attacking return from Kane which I called in my fantasy chat Yeah, I forgot but I made my picks, predictions around 30 mins ago. I would've gone for 1 - 1 for Brentford vs Totteham so missing the match wouldn't have really mattered as I would've gotten just 1.5 points. From a betting perspective, I was leaning towards draw no bet for Brentford at 2.80 as posted at JollyGood's thread but I didn't have the confidence to pull the trigger even for a small bet. Turned out it didn't really matter... I'm also leaning towards draw no bet for Aston Villa at 3.10 who's playing at home vs Liverpool. What do you guys think? |
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The more breaking news is Texeira vs Hill. I remember that Texeira refused Ankalaev and Blachowicz, because he was waiting for Prochazka (who is recovering quickly, injury seems to not so bad + there is a funny story behind that injury), and now he has chosen Hill. Hill supposed to meet Antony Smith (who seems to be a much better opponent for Texeira) march 2023. But Hill was pulled out to face Texeira January 22. Basically Hill has 1 month to prepare against a BJJ guy, former champ, while being a basic boxer, during Xmas while being a father of 6 Good Luck. If Hill can't defend Teixeira's TD's I think it's gonna be a long night for Hill. Hopefully he fixed his holes in the wrestling and grappling department. The old guy can still fight. Cardio's a bit shot tho as shown in his match against Prochazka. But Teixeira prolly learned from it and fixed it. As for Teixeira, he should be clinching a lot and grind Hill against the cage as Hill has a bit of power in hands. I rate Hill's boxing slightly better than Prochazka's. |
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