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Yes I think log scales are best to get true perspective of bitcoins because they are increasing rapidly on a short timescale, and shows the bubbles in context of the bigger picture. TradingView doesn't have the option of a log scale (but has excellent features for technical analysis), I guess using TradingView has started me looking at linear scales more than before. I'd say linear is a good approximation on shorter timescales.
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lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?
It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. i'll take lines on a chart over emotionally bear talk, anyday. At least emotional talk can be funny. Lines on a chart is just too common. lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?
It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Not sure I follow, why does it seem like a joke ? The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope. If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum. I thought there'd be more bears here though. Have you noticed how all the bitcoin bears are ripple fanatics ? A flashcrash is not effected significantly by a support level for obvious reasons (Bids dont get the chance to fill in. The SOLE reason for the price to stop falling is that selling has stopped) Support is BUYING pressure. Not a lack of selling pressure. Imagine one more person offloading 5k stash. Now the low would be ~105, slightly below the trend. Or one less person, slightly above. The fact it ended very near this line is nothing but coincidence. Must be great being the omnipotent one |
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lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?
It is what it is What this is is lines on a chart. Not TA. Not sure I follow, why is it not TA ? The analysis I perform is based on trendlines. The slope is well defined from a trend which goes back months in time to before the bubble peak. The flash crash as you call it, could have fallen to any level above or below where it did, however it fell to the exact same line on my lower channel creating a second touch point. This could be co-incidence to some, to me this is a good confirmation of the new slope of the trendline. It is a bullish trend line. The other trend lines above on my chart have many touch points which gives me confidence in the slope. If you are here to attack technical analysis I suggest you wasting your time, this is the speculation forum. I thought there'd be more bears here though. |
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A rational person doesn't need TA to know that we are clearly in a bear market since the 5th September.
It's a funny one, with limited seller pressure, due to the relative scarcity of the coins and also a bullish mood.
So some of you may have trouble recognizing the EW patterns, but they are there.
The gist of the issue raised by EM is what will happen after the 5th sub-wave of capitulation?
Will the price be in the 80$ - 90$ range and a new bubble period will form, or will the bubble
deflate completely and the price will reach 50s, maybe even 40s? IMO it depends on how many
of the 'missing' coins will reappear in the market during capitulation, with the intention of cashing out.
But cashing out of Gox is still a problem AFAIK, so as long as Fort Gox 'works' this way, the complete
deflation scenario seems unlikely to me. During capitulation the price should drop by about 50$,
IMO only if if drops a lot more, then EM's scenario could be close to the truth.
There is resistance at the level you describe, but very little chance we'll go below $100 any time soon. I predict we'll break up through that resistance around end of November time, until then yes price will meander sideways, maybe looking slightly bearish at times. |
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lol a flashcrash confirming a lower trendline? Is this some kind of bad joke?
It is what it is |
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No TA
With Silk Road down Bitcoin now has now no practical use. Buying stuff over Bitpay has no practical advantage over other methods and it's volume is negligible if you exclude ASIC sales.
Bitcoin is now 99% concerned with itself, that is either mining or investing, any sensible individual gonna look for a exit in the following months. Then you true believers will be finally on your own.
It's now a pure financial bubble.
Have fun!
Might have guessed you'd come out with something like this Mucus. You say bitcoins have no practical use! Thats like saying cash has no practical use. You have no TA, I'm not surprised. Time will tell whos right https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=306221.msg3291312#msg3291312 |
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Edit: This post is now also copied to the first post on the thread. In light of the Silk Road take down I've been thinking along the lines of a large new rising channel, pictured below. This is slightly less steep than the channel i first posted at top of thread. The silk road dip has confirmed the bottom line of this new channel I'm watching. The fact that Fed is now seizing and accumulating bitcoins is bullish development in my view. Red line shows slope of resistance, I expect we'll meander sideways staying within the channel and under that resistance for a while. Might not get resolved until late November, then I expect we'll break up, staying within the channel.  |
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you're comparing pre-mined coins which can be minted at will by RippleLabs with bitcoins!!!! Yeah ok, thats just no comparison to me though.
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 Yup definitely bullish |
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Note: All updates posted at the end of the thread. In light of the Silk Road take down I've been thinking along the lines of a large new rising channel, pictured below. This is slightly less steep than the channel i've been following on my blog. The silk road dip has confirmed the bottom line of this new channel I'm watching. The fact that Fed is now seizing and accumulating bitcoins is bullish development in my view. Red line shows slope of resistance, I expect we'll meander sideways staying within the channel and under that resistance for a while. Might not get resolved until late November, then I expect we'll break up, staying within the channel.
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Coinseeker I'm not defending bitcoin exchanges  I agree those bitcoins held in exchanges are IOU, that is not relevant to the fact that the bitcoins in my wallet are an asset with no counter party risk, which i can send to anyone else who has a wallet as a direct transfer of an asset. Not an IOU. If you can get past MtGox for one second. Bitcoins is not IOUs |
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Haha that freefalling bears dropping bitcoins is fantastic !!!!  Heres the channel I'm looking at.  |
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Ripple gateways will take various assets - bitcoins, USD, Euros, gold bullion etc and issue IOUs. These are redeamable across the network. This could work fine for a bit. Then the gateways would realise they have all these assets sitting about that don't need to be traded immediately. Perhaps they invest them, or use them to pay off a few business costs such as AML bonds or business bribes depending on the country. Perhaps they convert the assets to another currency for a bit. All works well for a bit. Then boom! some kind of worldwide shock occurs, such as dramatic change in gold price, invasion of a country or even capital controls and account robbing in previously untouchable developed world countries and currencies, such as Cyprus and the Euro. Suddenly the value of an asset changes fast. What happens if the gateway is holding its assets in the falling currency but owes locals in a variety of currencies? What happens if companies have developed off Ripple relationships across borders to settle their on ripple IOUs? What happens if govt steals the cash or stops it leaving the country? Suddenly those gateways are subject to a credit run. This can then diseminate across the whole ripple network as everyone sees what has happened and tries to redeem their IOUs quickly. It's called a 'Bank Run' and is one of the inevitable consequences of fractional reserve lending in large leveraged economies. What if the Ripple network becomes 'too big to fail' and the XRPs have to be inflated, punishing all savers and taxpayers to the benefit of the banks / gateways? Bitcoin has a built in release valve as the currency can be withdrawn to private hands long before the problem spirals out of control in the way a debt based network will. --- If tl;dr: Ripple is shit. Bitcoin amazes me every day. |
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If mtgox goes down Bitcoin is going to fractional digits. It's holding almost the entire accumulated worth (fiat money) Bitcoin derives it's value from and no way to compensate for it. The only way around that is ripple mass adoption or something similar which could supply liquidity very quickly. In that sense Ripple would save Bitcoin.
On the other hand you "if the gateways go down" would be the equivalent of every single exchange shutting down.
maybe when theres a run on the gateways, they could become 'too big to fail' and get bailed out with taxpayer money. That could save the ripple network. |
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Sounds like Mt. Gox, Bitstamp, Coinbase or any other BTC exchange for that matter. What prevents them from doing the same? Seems your issue is short sighted. You're trying to lump Ripple -a payment network- with a gateway. How a gateway operates is completely up to the gateway and it's completely up to the users if you wish to do business with that gateway. For example, I lost faith in Mt. Gox and thus will not do business with them. I need to know that my fiat IOU's at Gox are redeemable and as we can all see, they are not. So it's an easy fix...stop doing business with Gox. It's no different in Ripple. Same common sense principles apply. Ripple just makes this clear. Not to mention, we don't have to wait a freaking hour for a single transaction to take place.  I'm noticing a recurrent theme among ripple enthusiast that ripple gateways are the same as bitcoin exchanges. Gateways != Bitcoin exchange It's more like Bitcoin Ripple gateways ⊂ Bitcoin exchanges. Mucus, you say bitcoins will go to fractional digits if Mtgox goes down, when challenged for your analysis of why you state that you change subject. I notice no-one comes up with a good explanation of why zachope run on gateways scenario won't happen. Instead, another change of subject.  |
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Sounds like Mt. Gox, Bitstamp, Coinbase or any other BTC exchange for that matter. What prevents them from doing the same? Seems your issue is short sighted. You're trying to lump Ripple -a payment network- with a gateway. How a gateway operates is completely up to the gateway and it's completely up to the users if you wish to do business with that gateway. For example, I lost faith in Mt. Gox and thus will not do business with them. I need to know that my fiat IOU's at Gox are redeemable and as we can all see, they are not. So it's an easy fix...stop doing business with Gox. It's no different in Ripple. Same common sense principles apply. Ripple just makes this clear. Not to mention, we don't have to wait a freaking hour for a single transaction to take place. I'm noticing a recurrent theme among ripple enthusiast that ripple gateways are the same as bitcoin exchanges. Gateways != Bitcoin exchange |
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bitcoins has a payment network doesn't it ? Ripples is attempting to become a monopoly on payment networks and absorb all others. Is it not trying to centralise a decentralised network ?
On topic of gold as money and fiat as debt based money doesnt work, they aren't complimentary. Currently fiat has displaced gold entirely. Eventually sound money will replace debt, and so it goes, on and on
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@Bitcoin bull have you ever thought of changing your name to ripple bull ??
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No, Ripple is designed to complement Bitcoin.
Hogwash |
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