Nobody truly owns any bitcoins..because the ownership is only established when you are able to apply a correct private key in a "send" tx (via hardware device or something else), albeit validation of the private key (at some other point in time) is possible. Before that, it is all allegedly. This is in principle, of course.

yea, a thou points or so round-trip.

In 10 years, this will feel like a very expensive ranch, but you'll have it finished much earlier.
Time saved is worth future "potential" money.

buddy was an overachiever this time around 

OT: nature shows us something interesting:

https://news.sky.com/story/worlds-oldest-dog-dies-aged-31-12990846

Dog dies age 31 when it's breed typical lifespan is 12-14 years.
Basically, this dog lived 2.2X the upper bound of a typical life.
If we consider 92-100 years the typical upper bound of the human life (I know that a couple people lived to 120), then in "human terms" this dog lived to be 200-220 years old, which is considered to be impossible (for now).
EDIT: I hope they kept this dog's DNA sample for further analysis.

Marc Andreessen's techno manifesto..whether you agree or disagree..those are quite bold strokes.

https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/

I kind of like it, albeit he thinks that we can fit 50 bil people on Earth.

Oh, my..you are right.
Apparently, squatters have rights in some states. Wow.
Well, Michigan is 15 years, NH is 20 years of continual occupation...and Alberta just abolished the "Squatters rights" altogether recently (and British Columbia and Ontario already did it beforehand).
I am not sure why US still has these somewhat ridiculous "rights" on the books; maybe so the available land is cultivated?

I don't know, i just got a price off of some long term chart, it could be either 8K or 9K.
Re about tripling vs doubling-I got doubling plus 1/3 of the price of the average house in US, not the $$ number.
It is of course, more in $$ because houses appreciated about 30% (at least).
Yes...bitcoiners did better than real estate..that was the point.


I am angling to buy another property too in 2025, but not for renting.
The idea is to "escape" hot summers here.
Potential areas: Canada, New Hampshire or Michigan (from more to less expensive, typically).
Some water view is a must, got tired of not seeing water on a daily basis (river, lake or ocean-whichever will do just fine).

yes, of course it is cyclical (so far). By linearly I meant: we expect something...and exactly that happens with some small deviation.
Bitcoin is mostly tangential to local expectations while being within a long term repetitive four year cycles which may or may not continue to be as drastic as before.
So far, interestingly, the tops are getting less pronounced with each cycle, but bottoms remain quite severe, which is somewhat paradoxical, in my opinion.

Sometimes things are simple and play linearly, but bitcoin typically goes up the most when nobody 'expected' it, like a $12 to $250 surge (20X) in the first four moths of 2013 or $1k to $20K in the last 8-9 months of 2017 (20X again). Now, there is a lot of expectation, which is bullish, of course, but not unexpected. I don't expect more than 140-150K during this cycle, call me conservative.

Dollar buys half of RE in comparison with 2020:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/home-prices-high-mortgage-rates-how-much-money-to-afford-rcna120801

That said...
..If you had $324K (worth an average house price) on Jan 1 2020 in the bank, you could buy only about 3/4 of a house (if you are buying in "cash" and with current average house prices at $446 thou), but
..if you had $324K in SP500, you can still buy that house as SP500 went proportionally up (SPY from 321.7 to 421.19, roughly matching the rise in house prices)
...if you had $324K in bitcoin back then (34.5 btc), you can buy two averagely priced houses right now with no mortgage (if you want 'em) and have about $100K leftover (0.34 house).

Bottom line is that in this case you would be essentially unaffected by the affordability crisis described in the link.
Just FYI and another description of why it "pays" to be in bitcoin, long term.

Tongue in cheek?
I sincerely hope that this time is no different...but the world seems weird somehow.
Is this an alternative Universe?
Asking for a friend.

Sweet hopium  
$31 mil/btc...hehe:

https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/blackrock-etf-insider-scaramucci-says-approval-will-drive-31-million-bitcoin-price

Well, if that dev Bob cited is right, then Lightning is apparently cooked unless a fix is possible.
If so, Phil has a solid argument as you cannot accommodate coffee buying on bitcoin (without Lightning).

Do I care? Not much as my infrequent txs can still be posted, but it (bitcoin) cannot be a medium of exchange for the planet.
Is BitVM any better? I have no clue, maybe it is too new.

Perplexed.

Now we know how much SEC would like to collect from Ripple in a settlement.
Imho, I think that they made the deal already, unofficially, hence the drop of the lawsuit against a couple of execs.
We shall see.

I am not sure if this affects bitcoin one way or another, although Ripple execs allegedly tried to make Greenpeace say some bs about bitcoin before, and maybe even paid for this.

What collapse? VIX is still below 20.
TSLA is not the market, thankfully.

I wouldn't opine about bitcoin linkage or a lack thereof.

In 2020, btc also levitated for a day or two before dropping tremendously in one day..it is almost that back then some stupid fund (or funds) just decided to put in a market sell with low liquidity.
Thankfully, "they" shut down Bitmex on that day, or bitcoin could have gone down much more into a cascading leverage "black hole".
Imho, after that episode they started to seriously pressure Bitmex and their irresponsible leverage setup.

If this is a rather expensive software, maybe, but if not, where is the "gotcha"?
That said, if many people already using it and swear by it, then, why not?
Overclocking can "kill" the miner prematurely.
Underclocking is safer, of course, but typically comes to play at the tail end of each miner's run.

Approximating bitcoin price 'needed' for miners to be profitable, assuming stable electricity prices:

Currently, miners are said to have full breakeven at 23.4K/btc (including equipment amortization, 21.3K without equipment amortization).
s19 was introduced 3 years ago.
S21 is introduced now, about 3 years later.
During 2020-2023 difficulty increased about 2.86X or 42% a year (186% total).
Productivity in new miner increased from 29.5 to 17.5 J/T or 59% reducing $$ for profitability to 12.64K (with no amortization), but you need to add $7K on bitcoin miner cost amortization.
Currently, S21 will make 0.216btc/year with Zero electricity cost and 0.16 btc/year with 5c electricity, so NO more than 0.1 BTC/year after halving (before subtracting costs)
Assume the miner will make 0.216btcX(5mo/12) before halving (with no network growth)=0.09 btc (before costs).
After halving, the initial electrical cost of operation would be at least 25.2K/btc produced and more in reality, depending on the rise in difficulty.
Let's assume 25.2K/btc initial electricity cost and project 42% a year difficulty growth as it was in 2020-2023.
In three years (by 2026) the break even mining cost would be at least 72K/btc.
You would also need to profit at least $7K to amortize your miner, which is currently 0.257BTC, but could be less later.
However, after halving you would only make 0.08 btc/year (start at 0.1 btc, end at 0.06btc before subtracting costs), then 0.0464 btc year two, then 0.0366 btc year three.
Therefore, assuming a fixed electricity of 5c, you would spend 1533 in years 1, 2 and 3 each, plus 7k on miner.
Total outlay about 12k (as you also pay for miner shipment)

So, you will probably produce about 0.09btc (before halving), then 0.08 btc (y1), then 0.0464 btc (y2), then 0.0366 btc (y3).
Total: 0.163 btc with 639+1533X3=$5238 in electricity cost and $7K in miner cost. Total cost: $12238
Therefore, to breakeven (or make minimal money in $$), your average bitcoin selling price should be no less than $75100/btc during the next 3 year and 5 mo.
Typically, at some point in the cycle miners become VERY profitable, so at least a double of 75K is likely to be attained at some point in the next 3 years and 5 mo.

TL;DR My approximation shows a minimum average price of 75K for miners' bitcoin sell after buying a S21 to achieve a breakeven in the next 3 years and 5 mo (assuming no repairs and a fixed electricity cost at 5c).

I hope that it would be mostly bitcoin revolution, though.

That said, it very well may be that the easing would soon be upon us and $ will go down a bit too (together with short term interest rates).
Again, it's the best for asset holders, worse for "schmucks" with a few or no assets aka most of the middle class.
I am not sure how long this dichotomy will last this time around.

Arthur Hayes said something similar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-de-ZIA5ouo
 with a top for "everything" around 2026 (btc at 750K-1mil), then Great Depression 2.0