... two premiere seats tickets to a U2 concert at the brand new Sphere (Las Vegas) plus a two night stay at the nice suite at Venetian or Palazzo and a two way flight.
.....
To each his own I suppose. not a fan of U2 or presumably conspicuous consumption? or..do you refer to gambling? Honestly, not my absolute favorable band...actually, I don't have #1. |
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Consumption of fine things after either 2024 or 2028 halvings?
..if your position lasts that long:
Example:
in 2015 less than $20 bought you 0.1btc
in 2023 0.1 btc buys you two premiere seats tickets to a U2 concert at the brand new Sphere (Las Vegas) plus a two night stay at the nice suite at Venetian or Palazzo and a two way flight.
Experiences count.
8 years later..in 2031... 0.1btc buys you? A car? Likely... A modest house?..less likely, perhaps.
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I have no major qualms with CB, typically, with two caveats:
1. Long stretches of CB are giving an impression that this board is "dead".
2. Interruptions in ongoing conversations, which is a very small factor, but it reminds me of a Howard Stern movie when he was told to announce weather quite often, so he made a hilarious way to do it, willfully interrupting the narration flow to insert weather in a hilarious way.
In short, i would prefer less vociferous CB, that's all.
On a regular stable day once in 4 hr is OK, maybe even more than once an hour when we are mooning and/or plunging.
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Too much, buddy  EDIT: I'd recommend to change Buddy's policy to post a price update only if it moved by a certain amount of dollars. The buddy posts a chart on hourly basis and if none of us make a post then we'll see buddy only. I also believe that limiting buddy is somewhat good for the WO thread. I believe buddy should post charts when price pumps a lot or dips a lot and other than that it would make 1 post in 4 hours if the price doesn't change a lot. I was thinking more in the 10-25 Dollar range. EDIT: 1% would be too much imo. 0,1% fits the purpose of getting rid of those flatline-charts in series, which my suggestion mainly was about. Personally, i don't care about the price reminder if it is less than 1% change, but $100 as a "limit" is fine too (at these prices). imho, $15-25 is too "granular" for being of much use. |
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large/small unit paradoxes:
currently btc is considered to be too big and sats are too small:
$100 is currently 0.0037 btc, but 370370 sats, both numbers being kind of awkward, psychologically.
I am not trying to argue for microbitcoin or bits, not at all.
However, IF we will proceed to higher numbers, sats will look more attractive than measuring in btc:
at $270K/btc, $100 would be 0.00037 btc (people will make error inputting zeroes, imho) and 37037 sats (or 370.37 sats/$, getting close to the yen value).
at $2.7mil/btc, $100 would be 0.000037btc (even more mistakes and "fat" fingers) and 3700.37 sats (or 37 sats/$, which is on the money for using these units for regular payments).
TL;DR Sometime soon, we would need to promote sats more heavily as a preferred term of unit measurement.
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Too much, buddy EDIT: I'd recommend to change Buddy's policy to post a price update only if it moved by a certain amount of dollars. Yes, I am seconding this.. but measure in %%, not $$: for example, at least 1% in an hour ($267 currently). Any smaller number is wholly irrelevant, imho. EDIT sorry, I did not check the @fillippone post made 20 min earlier  |
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So on my commute to work, I was behind this plumber's van. The back was emblazoned with the company sign... SINK AND SPOUTAnd I was was like, oh that's kind of catchy. Then it occurred to me that if some dude with a lisp mentioned that company name to me, I'd be like "oh I do that all the time (usually after a couple of nips) on this here famous thread, none other than the Wall Observer!" * GO BITCOIN  *Ok, I know...that joke doesn't quite work, because "spout" has an "s" also, and goes to "thpout", which ain't a word, but it sounds funny anyway, and I got my daily chuckle. ....I'm always thinking and thpouting... TGIF WO exchange on driving to work and thinking: The more "muscular" is my car, the faster and more risky I drive, so I have to constantly tell myself: slow down..slow down...you don't have to overtake that sluggish car ahead, etc, etc I could only imagine riding a "chopper"-I would probably have crazy acceleration going constantly. My safest driving is when I use some smaller family cars. It's kind of weird. |
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Most impeccable realistic scenario with $200k+ in 2025 and hitting $1 million in 2029.  @seth_finNot sure how he explains why the current graph seems to be bending downward (decrease in % increase each new cycle), but the future graph starts to bend upward. In reality it is not clear what the future graph will show. It could very well go supra-exponential, but I wouldn't count on it and made my peace with "just" 140-150K max this cycle, which is probably on the conservative side of most expectations. |
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Fun calculation:
On 1 August 2017, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) forked from the main Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain. If you had x BTC at that time, you were given x BCH. Consider the following 2 choices:
1. Keep the forked BCH,
2. Sell the forked BCH and buy BTC.
Picking option (1) in September 2017, your x BCH, then worth around x * $500, today would be worth x * $200 ---> 60% LOSS
Picking option (2) in September 2017, your x BCH, then worth around x * $500 would buy you x * $500 / $4000 BTC at that time, which today would be worth x * $26000 * $500 / $4000 = x * $3250 ---> 550% GAIN
For exact values, replace x with the amount of BTC you had at the time of the fork.
Prices are rough & rounded approximations of spot prices of then and now. The difference in outcome is so huge that the accuracy of prices used is almost irrelevant. We're talking about 1 to 2 orders of magnitude gain in picking (2) vs. (1).
tl;dr: Fork your mother if you want fork! Get rid of all your shitcoins ASAP ---> convert to BTC ---> wait. Tried & tested, never fails.
An alternative possibility: do nothing at the time so you don't have to pay taxes on your bch fork being sold. In actuality, your gain was probably more like 0.66X$500=$330 per rather than $500. I split (forked) some, but not all at the time. Of course, looking back, I should have 'forked' all btc I had at the time, no doubt. Besides, although I believed that "small blockers" would succeed (and they did), it was by no means certain back then as few companies (Coinbase, Circle, etc) threw their weight behind the 'large blockers" initially. Surely, it is crystal clear now and has been for quite a while. |
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http://Absolute mad man, but you gotta love it. @saylor MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 5,445 BTC for ~$147.3 million at an average price of $27,053 per #bitcoin . As of 9/24/23 @MicroStrategy hodls 158,245 $BTC acquired for ~$4.68 billion at an average price of $29,582 per bitcoin. $MSTR https://t.co/GbJtUoQfXvhttps://x.com/saylor/status/1706278284651077714If it mooned to 200k he would go from 4.68 billion to over 26 billion Do you think he will be able to cash out that much in time? Saylor isn't going to cash out the bitcoin. You and Laura Shin apparently don't understand: "It's going up forever". what is he going to do with it, then? Only watching it grow and drink beer! He doesn't have heirs afaik; if i remember it correctly, he said that he will donate it or something to that extent. A theoretical "M.Saylor charitable fund" should become the biggest of them all, eventually, beating Bill G. (in time). |
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Absolute mad man, but you gotta love it. @saylor MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 5,445 BTC for ~$147.3 million at an average price of $27,053 per #bitcoin . As of 9/24/23 @MicroStrategy hodls 158,245 $BTC acquired for ~$4.68 billion at an average price of $29,582 per bitcoin. $MSTR https://t.co/GbJtUoQfXvhttps://x.com/saylor/status/1706278284651077714If it mooned to 200k he would go from 4.68 billion to over 26 billion My maths must be different from your maths. Here's my proofs of work: I get $31.64 Billion. (but hey what is a $5.64 billion difference between friends?) Here is how it can be done: $200k / $29,582 = 6.76 6.76 x $4.68 billion = $31.64 billion Absolute mad man, but you gotta love it. @saylor MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 5,445 BTC for ~$147.3 million at an average price of $27,053 per #bitcoin . As of 9/24/23 @MicroStrategy hodls 158,245 $BTC acquired for ~$4.68 billion at an average price of $29,582 per bitcoin. $MSTR https://t.co/GbJtUoQfXvhttps://x.com/saylor/status/1706278284651077714They're the smartest guys! They are buying during dips and I believe the price of Bitcoin is very low and they know that they will make a lot of profits during the next bull run. In just 1-2 years they may make more than 100% profit from their acquisition, but I'm sure they will still hold their coins for longer periods and may sell some of their holdings at peak of bull run. I can imagine how much profit they will make in the next bull run because that is a lot of money. They have a lot of money to immediately buy bitcoin at low prices but we can also buy it like them even though we can only buy it little by little. And even though they only sell a portion of the total, they still make huge profits that can be shared with all their shareholders while they can still buy more in the next bear market. It may be different but we will benefit from the next bull run. You believe that MSTR needs to sell in order that either they or their shareholders would be able to profit? That's interesting. Strictly speaking, to arrive at net worth (or rather net asset value for MSTR), you need to subtract 4.68 bil from your number, arriving at 26.96 bil, but what's extra few bil among WOers, lol. Btw, currently, MSTR has a negative net asset value, which did not preclude wall street from assigning multi billion $$ valuation to the company. In fact, current MSTR valuation (at $4.615 bil) suggests that wall street is valuing btc to be at least $58,738 sometime soon (4.615bil+4.68bil=9.295bil/158245btc=~$58738/btc |
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years were passing fast
I am still none the wiser
chasing after dreams
#haiku
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A simple calculation shows that if bitcoin goes up 70% a year (on average), then it would reach 5 mil sometime before September 22, 2033 (in about 10 years, roughly).
For comparison, 70% a year is exactly what bitcoin did between September 22, 2013 and September 22, 2023, so someone can't say that we are talking "crazy" numbers here.
All needed for bitcoin to do it is to repeat the last 10 years. I think that it is reasonable, but not guaranteed, of course.
If bitcoin goes up 50% a year (on average), it would be about $1.58 mil in 10 years.
If bitcoin goes up 35% a year (on average), it would reach $533K in 10 years.
Those are more modest numbers and 35% would be a halving of the growth rate in the next decade.
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Some 'hotheads' keep talking about $5-10 mil bitcoin in 10 years (2033).
I did some calculations:
1. Bitcoin will be $1.58 mil in 2033 if it goes up 50%/year (on average).
2. Bitcoin will be $27.14 mil in 2033 if it goes up 100%/year on average.
If counting from late 2011 (btc at $2), bitcoin went up roughly 2.25X a year (125%).
If counting from Sept 22, 2013 (btc at $133), bitcoin went up roughly 1.7X a year (70%)
Therefore, if bitcoin does a repeat of the last 10 years exactly, it would be $5.34 mil in late September 2033.
I like the numbers. It is hard to believe that it is possible, but it is.
All it takes is for btc to exactly mirror the last 10 years in appreciation.
"Nothing" special.
If not in our universe, then in some that is almost identical to ours, imho.
I would imagine in this day and age every hodeler has a secret fantasy that those numbers play out, including myself. I'm not going to speculate or comment on whether this will happen or not. I leave that to other folks on this here famous thread. They will end up looking like Nostradamus geniuses, or just another lunatic internet get rich quick character. Me? I just continue to DCA, hoping for the former, albeit, I'm not betting the farm. (and surely most OG's with a brain apply the same strategy.....perhaps, perhaps?) Good lord! Did I just post on topic? Very unusual...lol well, I bought quite a bit of AAPL in 1997...did not hold long enough. I bought some TSLA in 2010...did not hold long at all. I did not buy AMZN in 1997 even after thinking about it quite a bit. by golly...I will try to hodl here as long as I can. Bitcoin looks as much a golden ticket as anything I ever laid my eyes on...long term. |
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Some 'hotheads' keep talking about $5-10 mil bitcoin in 10 years (2033).
I did some calculations:
1. Bitcoin will be $1.58 mil in 2033 if it goes up 50%/year (on average).
2. Bitcoin will be $27.14 mil in 2033 if it goes up 100%/year on average.
If counting from late 2011 (btc at $2), bitcoin went up roughly 2.25X a year (125%).
If counting from Sept 22, 2013 (btc at $133), bitcoin went up roughly 1.7X a year (70%)
Therefore, if bitcoin does a repeat of the last 10 years exactly, it would be $5.34 mil in late September 2033.
I like the numbers. It is hard to believe that it is possible, but it is.
All it takes is for btc to exactly mirror the last 10 years in appreciation.
"Nothing" special.
If not in our universe, then in some that is almost identical to ours, imho.
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Almost a "greek" tragedy: rocky the squirrel depicting someone here [  ] is playing with an inanimate object...maybe with buddy (depicted by the broom)? https://youtu.be/ruCcGDkPQ6Q?t=6 |
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..since Wed is now haiku-prone, according to the rules of "poetry exception' : He don't, I doesn't
it don't, they doesn't make fine
poetry on WO#mostly self-admission haiku, the rest is a filler |
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[...] TL;DR: Too early, just Bart... Xxxx Xxxxx xxxx xxxx x xxxx The doubt is pointless #haiku
#quizMerit for the solver Easy: Too early, just Bart... King Daddy don't give a fuckThe doubt is pointless (correct capitalization, number of words, number of letters in each word, and, of course, 7 syllables). Nice one, Eddie! ...it appears so (as an intent), albeit here is a caveat: King Daddy is either "he" or "it", but not "I", "we", "you" or "they", which makes it speaking in the third person singular...therefore it should have been " doesn't" and not "don't", sorry. Here are the rules: https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/eb/qa/don-t-and-doesn-tThat would have made it 5 8 5 and not 5 7 5, sorry. I enjoyed it anyway... Such deviations from formal syntactical / grammatical rules are often accepted (and sometimes even encouraged) in poetry. OOOK... I realize now that @JJG was actually posting poetry all this time, he he. |
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[...] TL;DR: Too early, just Bart... Xxxx Xxxxx xxxx xxxx x xxxx The doubt is pointless #haiku
#quizMerit for the solver Easy: Too early, just Bart... King Daddy don't give a fuckThe doubt is pointless (correct capitalization, number of words, number of letters in each word, and, of course, 7 syllables). Nice one, Eddie! ...it appears so (as an intent), albeit here is a caveat: King Daddy is either "he" or "it", but not "I", "we", "you" or "they", which makes it speaking in the third person singular...therefore it should have been " doesn't" and not "don't", sorry. Here are the rules: https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/eb/qa/don-t-and-doesn-tThat would have made it 5 8 5 and not 5 7 5, sorry. I enjoyed it anyway... |
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