If you did not notice this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5462314.0Apparently, Adam Back bet 1mil sats (~$300 right now) that bitcoin would be at or above $100K on 0:00hr UTC time March 31, 2024 (initially); the bet was later later adjusted to 840000 block time. Is 300$ a challenging amount to bet??  Of course, not, but there is a tradition of well known people putting small bets on various occurrences, like black hole information paradox bet (Thorne-Hawking-Preskill) or Hawking bets against Higgs bozon discovery and "naked" singularity. You can see a small bet, I forgot, either $10 or $20 in the "Oppenheimer" movie. Other notable 'small' bets include George Lucas bet against Steven Spielberg that Lucas' film (Star Wars) would get less profits than The third encounter. Speilberg won and, allegedly, collected $12.5 mil. See some bets here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_betsTo me the surprise was that A. Back thinks that 100K is so close...almost here. |
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If you did not notice this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5462314.0Apparently, Adam Back bet 1mil sats (~$300 right now) that bitcoin would be at or above $100K on 0:00hr UTC time March 31, 2024 (initially); the bet was later later adjusted to 840000 block time. |
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I thought we would be blasting passed $30K with all the news leaking that Bitcoin spot ETFs will be mass approved in the next 4-6 months. If you’re a believer or the ETF effect then you have to be thinking this is the beginning of the largest valuation increase in Bitcoin’s history. For some reason the market doesn’t feel as bullish as I’d expect.
Two possibilities: 1. Market is pricing in larger socio-economic trends and maybe an incoming drop in stocks. 2. Maybe spreading it out to 7-8 different ETFs would lessen instead of hastening the impact. They would all probably furiously hypothecate and rehypothecate the same "physical" bitcoin between all of those ETFs. Please don't tell me that it is not possible with whatever dubious audit measures they would have. Allegedly, some mega-banks currently "loan" deposits to some smaller banks so those appear solvent....I read (heard?) it somewhere on the 'internets'. |
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30K is achieved...again.
I will be more excited at above yearly high of 31.67K, I promise.
31.67K? At what exchange? I thought we used Bitstamp as a reference around here. It hit $31818 at Stamp on July 12. That wasn't the point... Fine, 31818 then, no biggie. |
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30K is achieved...again.
I will be more excited at above yearly high of 31.818 31.67K, I promise.
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According to "contacts" from inside BlackRock and Invesco spot Bitcoin ETF approval a matter of "when, not if" likely in "four to six months - Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz on earnings call this morning. Source  My thoughts are that the SEC will play the same BS game with the Spot ETFs that they played with the first round of derivative ETFs: The first or two spot ETFs will get shot down for some BS reason. Complete head fake in the price, as per usual. Then the first of the spot ETFs will get approved in December of this year, and/or as we round the corner into the first of next year. All of them will get approval before the halving (Gee, what a shocker.  ) Bitcoin price will start to take off pre-halving. The derivatives market may flash crash in 2024. Some completely bullshit, "The-sky-is-falling-and-Bitcoin-is-the-hedge-play" narrative will get spun up in the MSM to support all this. As per usual. Quite plausible scenario(s). The future is blurry, but we all can see possibilities like that or similar. We need relative peace, though. |
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Sunday musings...
Most people right now:
they don't believe in bitcoin
Well, more for me, then
#haiku
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BRK/A is completely fkn SUS at this point. One has to wonder, in a world with massive ongoing inflation, bank and corporate bankruptcies, cratering corporate revenues, and massive layoffs, how a company like BRK/A can literally DOUBLE their stock price since the pandemic started. I smell shite. Only in a world that is accelerating into a lowkey kind of hyperinflation could they do that. I mean...just look at that ridiculous hockey stick chart.  More than 50% of their stock portfolio is AAPL, so it is now more or less a proxy of AAPL plus some insurance companies and BAC. Long term BRK-A is exponential too, so nothing new there. You are right about hyper, though, as all large tech stocks are on this trajectory since 2011-2012. |
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Inter-generational wealth is a nice dream, but for most it ain't going to happen even if bitcoin skyrockets. Why? Because you don't really have full control over how the following generations would squander it. Yeah, yeah, I am aware of trusts, etc. Still, sometimes "you can bring the horse to water but you can't make it drink". Typically, it is all lost within 2-3 generations (at most). In 70% it is lost by second gen and in 90% by the third. https://romanosumner.com/blog/avoid-losing-generational-wealth/Of course, everyone knows about Rothschilds and few others, but they are the outliers, so don't keep your hopes up too much, be realistic about it. That said, giving the 'wealth' away in donations to extended family and charities (once bitcoin is in $ seven digits and even few bitcoins would represent something substantial) is an attractive proposition. |
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MicroStrategy enters into an agreement to sell $750 MILLION worth of Class A Stock in order to buy more #bitcoin source  Sometimes the sources need more, or we must rely on the "Trust me bro" source. The source you provided said the same thing you shared here. But I was interested in reading some articles where Microstrategy or Mr. Sylor said they would buy Bitcoin with that $750 Million. Twitter influencers tend to post whatever they think or assume, and their assumption becomes a piece of news. I do not want to rely on the "Trust me bro" source. I hope when you share something, you read it before you share. If you think it's interesting and have something to read with some source, you can share it. But, if something does not satisfy you, you shouldn't share it too. I did these things before, and I was criticized as well. Dude, they already did in 2021...look at the document's date, lol. They spent about 4-4.4 bil doing nothing else but buying bitcoin. The fact is is they own 152 thou with an average price slightly above 29.2K. Do the math. My bad. Thanks for finding it. Then I think it's absurd to post it again. The source he posted is a tweet from some Bitcoin News page. The Twitter account claims it's new, and it's posted today.  Precisely this is why I wanted to see more sources about his post. It's misleading when someone posts something two years old and claims it's new. I guess it's another 750 mil (or they extended the 2021 agreement), but even if another 750 mil, it is just another 16.9%...a lot, but just an add-on. I guess his ultimate goal is 210K btc..not sure if doable. |
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very interesting to read about their reasoning...i am saddened by the fact, but i guess there is some rationale behind it. "outdated data"...that's new. |
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Hello WO gang. Observing 28,874@stamp. Usual WO game: where is fillippone and what is he looking at? Compulsory WO sign in the picture.  fillippone likes Sunbathing women!!! Italian stallion likes sunbathing women? Preposterous! Who is not? lol...maybe some lizards have green blood (true), horse shoe crabs have blue blood and white/grey for droids of "Alien" movies fame. |
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I got it...Mr Market for some unknown reason wants to royally piss off M. Saylor by hovering over his bitcoin average buying price (almost exactly).
That explains the 29.3+/-0.2K conundrum (or flatline if you like this term better).
No matter, MSTR is still "flying".
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Im gonna attempt to explain mining difficulty with a metaphor
You and a lot of other people are standing at a bar, the queue is exactly one person deep. The bar tender goes around the queue take drinks orders and fulfilling them let’s say clockwise. When you get your drink you stay in the queue and drink it. Difficulty represents the time you have to wait to order your drinks. If a new person joins the queue you will have to wait longer and ultimately drink less in an evening. If a person leaves the queue you will wait less time and be able to drink more in the evening. This scales up(adding to the queue) and down(dropping from the queue). There will also be the few alcoholics who will never leave the queue, and they want more booze than they can imagine wanting.
Is my understanding correct?
I think the joke(miners death spiral) is that those alcoholics will always be there, drinking from the firehouse or waiting patiently for the bartender to serve them.
Using your bewildering analogy...the question is: will there be enough "alcoholics" to secure the chain properly? Phil posited that in 80 years there would not be. Personally, I don't know as we NEVER had more than a few weeks difficulty decline and btw, those periods were always the local bottom (so far), like Oct-Dec 2018 (cycle low), then China ban (May-July 2021) and summer bottom. |
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Don't be like that....if bitcoin is strong it does not matter if there are other 'tokens'. Besides, there are other tokens that are similar to bitcoin in the way they are issued with some of them mentioned here from time to time. Think about it: if they "cancel" everything else, bitcoin would certainly be next in US, probably for decades...just like trading in gold was. |
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Some price notion:
AMZN stock is clearly long term exponential (so far): went up 45X in the first 12 years (0.08 to $3.67 split adjusted: 1997- 2009), then 47X in the next 12 years (3.67 to 175 peak).
Bitcoin, on the other hand, was highly inflationary early on (went 800-1000X in the first 4 years or so) and since slowed down to "just" 60X in the following 10 years (as reflected by the chart above). It could be the function of apparently diminishing halving events or something else, but I, for once, do not necessarily expect this slowdown to continue since we don't know the actual shape of the bitcoin price curve in time/price coordinates as it could suddenly bend upwards, for example (adoption, supercycle, etc.)
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