I am not denying that news affects the price and human behavior. I am saying if these particular news articles were indeed affected the price then it should have moved a lot more than just 2-3% and also it would have taken a lot longer then a couple of minutes. this rise you are talking about in 19th only took about 6-7 minutes and the volume was about 300BTC and it literary happened exactly as I explained above. a big buy order happened then the rest followed in a FOMO buying fashion.

yeah but the difference is that all the manipulation of 2014 (Mt Gox and willy bot and all the rest) were happening in one place, a place which was controlling the whole market because it  controlled all the volume and nearly all traders were there. checking the volume percentages Mt Gox had more than 85-90% of the daily trading volume. the influence of an exchange with such volume share is great.

I agree about the Tether and the manipulation of 2018 but in comparison Tether for instance happened in a tiny part of the whole market because exchanges like bitfinex control a tiny part of the volume and number of investors. bitfinex has 10% of the volume best case and that is only assuming the  volume is not fake. any manipulation happening there was also minimal.

that would require the traders to be sitting behind their computers and refreshing all the news websites continuously and as soon as an article is published take action based on it! which is obviously not realistic. these sudden jumps are simply the market reacting to some rise/fall or it is even possible that a big order went through. for example currently price is $6630 and if someone sells about 50BTC it will reach $6600 in one sweep and that will cause a bigger follow up drop where others sell and you suddenly see 200BTC is sold after that leading the price down to $6490 which is about 2% drop. just like that...

bitcoin isn't really that big that when a good news comes out it rises 2-3% and when a bad news comes out it goes down 2-3%. these types of change don't really have to have any reasons they are just market fluctuations. you blink and 2% change happens, that is just how the market is.

if things you mentioned here were really effective then price would have changed at least 10% meaning if the hack was a real thing then price would have fallen down to $5800 and if the other was positive enough the price would have gone up to $7k range. which obviously didn't so they are just noise like 100s of other news out there both positive and negative.

some of the comments are so funny in this topic. now that this completely random news written on a completely random website which is a pure click-bait is talking a little positive about China everyone is so happy and they are saying how China is so good and positive towards everything crypto related.
it just shows how random people are on bitcointalk with their comments! no long ago the same random bullshit sites were saying China banned bitcoin and everyone was commenting on how China is against everything crypto-related!!!

LOL what's next? the sky is blue and the earth is round! maybe he is going to go to hospitals and tell the infants that come out of the womb that they are going to die some day

the technology that was used 2000 years ago is obsolete today because it is either improved or replaced by a newer, better technology. but that technology was used in its own time for a long time and was the best thing in its time. same goes with cryptography. it is an evolving battle where it gets stronger and better and people continue trying to break it.

nothing because bans don't happen and they extremely rare and when one out of million happens it is always regional while bitcoin is global and the result is that everyone just changes region. exchanges move their headquarters to another region, traders move on to that place or another exchange or they simply switch to more decentralized way of trading which is peer to peer instead of using an exchange.

months ago when they said they are going to close down or possibly sell the site I withdrew my funds and got out. today I checked it again and it seems like everything has gone through and they successfully changed ownership.

the problem is that I can no longer log in to my account. it fails to log in saying your password is wrong (which I am 100% sure is not) and when I try resetting it I see the error saying my Email is not recognized.

so is there any way to recover this account (I think I had some small amounts of some altcoins there which I would like getting back) or do I have to create a new account now?

closing your eyes and holding on to every altcoin that is out there and promises you green days will only mean hug losses. it is like holding on to a big rock while falling in the sea. of course you will drown! you should let go of the sinking rock because its demise is inevitable no matter how much you try and hold on tight the rest of the world is dumping said altcoins and you will be buried under their dump.

whenever you are talking about trading whether it is normal way of buy low sell high or leverage trading, at the end of the day the results of it will be determined based on how good you can speculate the market. if you make mistakes you will lose money and if you don't and speculate it accurately then you make a profit. so if you lost money in leverage trading that means your speculation was off the market. try working on that and you will be more successful and eventually realize that the unpredictability of the market is nothing like the unpredictability of gambling. the first one is not 100%, you can still predict the market to some extent but you can never predict the outcome of a bet.

there are two parts to this drop. the first part is obviously the correction of the bubble ($20k) and the bear market that followed but the next part of it is purely manipulation that caused the drop to become a lot bigger than it should have become and it has been strong until today even though the drop slowed down to a halt. in other words in my opinion manipulation is the main reason for the current price.

but also I think many of the investors these days think 2013-2014 was the only time bitcoin had a bubble and a bear market so they are speculating about current market purely based on that one time. the reality is that there has been a couple of other times before that which they are missing and the similarity between today and those times are a lot more than the similarity with 2013-2014.

it is good and all to talk about profit and care about it but if you start advertising bitcoin as a way of getting rich then you will also have a lot of bad consequences.
it actually surprises me to see this topic was created recently here despite the fact that we are seeing clear examples of these consequences that I am talking about. when you advertise bitcoin as a way of getting rich you will end up with a market filled with a lot of speculators who don't understand bitcoin (as the only decentralized currency) so they don't care about anything but making money. many of them will also want to become very rich in a very short time and the result will be big bubbles followed by a huge drops and eventually big rich whales who don't care about what bitcoin is and a lot of broke newbies.

decentralized exchanges also have their limitations. for example if you want to use banks to transfer money you still have to endure KYC and a lot of the money transferring methods have charge back issues that increases the risk of getting scammed. and trading face to face with cash is not possible for everyone.
in the end we will always need the centralized exchanges to have a place where we can easily transfer money to and from and trade instantly and speculate about bitcoin price.

decentralized exchanges with crypto to crypto exchange is a different story though because it is all using blockchain technology it can be done fast and easy without any problems. they will be the future and the altcoin exchanges will be extinct in a couple of years in my opinion.

this is very true. but you can never compare bitcoin with gold. even if you want to do it then you have to compare the 9 years of bitcoin with the early years of gold meaning the time when the first gold mine was created back in Ancient Egypt (1320–1200 BC) and gold started having value. in comparison bitcoin is still young and is still being adopted so the money flow in is still ongoing which is why when price goes down it will go back up again soon after.

you also have to take into consideration the supply of these two. when bitcoin has a limited supply which is being created and enters circulation at a steady pace, gold supply creation rate changes throughout time as new mines are found, new methods for extraction are found,...
here is bitcoin's:


and here is gold's:


interesting enough the big price drop that happens after 1980 in your chart is the same date on above chart that a sharp increase in the gold production occurs in 1980.

it is not continuously decreasing. we had the big fast rise which needed the correction. the correction happened as it should have and everything was fine and market was nearly back to normal when the whales decided they are not satisfied with the profit they have gotten so far. there is no organization to manipulate but there are people with a lot of money who do it. then price started falling from then (around $10k) until now with big manipulative dumps on the market each time it reached a support line.
now we are left with a market where most of the money is out waiting for the manipulation to end so that they can come back in.

the messed up part is that so far all those who put down bitcoin and said some sort of negative comment about it are the biggest investors in bitcoin! we have seen time and time again that they first spread FUD and pretend how they are against bitcoin to cover the fact that they are buying it as big as they can!
you can see it in a dumber form and on a smaller scale with some users on bitcointalk that they always come out and spread FUD about bitcoin consistent with the drops.

if by "far off" you mean compare to what happens then you are wrong he was close to predicting the real price so far. but if by "far off" you mean in time then you are right. he always predicts for long term (at least what I have seen from him) and that is the easy part because in short term all the drama, FUD, manipulation, panic sells and FOMO buys are affecting the market and making it hard to predict. for example you can't say what the price will be in a month from now or where the bottom of this bullshit downtrend currently is but you can say that in a year or two price will be rising and setting a new ATH. you can also say in 2020 with the halving we will have a huge rise at least doubling the price of that time,.... and considering all these and the way bitcoin has been rising exponentially each time you can come up with a near accurate prediction.

when it comes to fear and bitcoin we have different levels and reasons for it. some of them are good and necessary like fearing the money you invest in which leads you to invest what you can afford to lose not all your lifesavings as long as it is a logical fear.
but the fear that is caused by FUD like the news that OP shared here is pure bullshit. and that is how you lose money. the fact is there is a lot of propaganda out there against bitcoin and these days it is working full time to fight it and when the fear is originated from that then it is irrational and you should rethink the way you are treating bitcoin.

the question you are asking here is meaningless in my opinion. the real question that you should  be asking is this one: "how much did manipulation affect bitcoin price" for example since you are talking about "highs" you should be wondering if there were 0 manipulation what would bitcoin price be. would it be the same $20k as the ATH, or a little lower like $18k, or a lot lower like only reaching $5k?

first of all you can not eliminate manipulation so it will always exist. and based on my experience even without manipulation the "highs" would have still be near the same thing meaning I believe it would have been nearly $20k because it was the FOMO with a little bit of manipulation that pushed the price up there. and it is always easier for bitcoin to go above certain levels when a big resistance like $10k is broken and you enter uncharted waters.
drop on the other hand is much harder and needs a lot more manipulation than the rise because people tend to have bull mentality when it comes to bitcoin even if they pretend otherwise so making them sell is harder.

well bitcoin does not protect nor has any mechanism when someone like you who doesn't understand how the market works tries to make profit from it but fails over and over then moves to other markets without understanding them either and buys into them like buying silver and loses money there also. there is no protection for people like you. so try to learn and educate yourself if you don't want to lose money like this instead of spamming bitcointalk