Can you ELI5 what is happening to BDK.BND? I received an odd dividend today and I can't decipher why by reading this thread. Thank you.
Unfortunately, there is no way for me to communicate to all bond-holders through GLBSE, which is making this sloppier than I'd like. You should put up an informational motion. That way all the shareholders can see the information. It could be just a link to the BDK.BND thread where you explain the change in events, but you should post something to the GLBSE. It would be nice if you could use the GLBSE mail feature to send messages to holders of an asset, but I guess they have not implemented that functionality yet. Heck, even GLBSE does not use their own mail system, they just post things on this forum. |
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Consider ASICMINER as something which starts with value X (IPO price) then at some future date will suddenly become worth Y. The point at which it becomes worth Y is when the chips begin mining. Now for the purpose of evaluating Y you have to look at the different possible outcomes and the chance of each then calculate the EV at that point (which includes the chance of zero value due to the chips never working).
For ASICMINER to be a viable investment at all, that value Y (the EV of all outcomes at some future point) has to be higher than X. If you believe it lower than X then obviously the share only has value if you short it.
My point about value rising was on the assumption that Y is higher than X (that's my assessment and we'll NEVER know if I was right or not - as we'll only know what actually happens, not what the likelihood of that particular outcome actually was).
If we take as a given that Y is higher than X then my argument is that the value of the share should gradually rise from X to Y until the instant when the outcome is known when it'll either drop or rise based on the actual results. The alternative argument is that the value stays at X until the outcome is known then changes all at once.
My argument in essence relies on two points:
1. Money not making a profit is an opportunity cost. I can't see any valid argument against this other than if the contention is that there's no way to make profit from money. So if the value of the share doesn't rise then there's zero incentive to buy it at the start rather than use your money to make profit and buy into it later.
2. If it has an expected value Y in the future then its value to you NOW is Y less the profit you could reasonably otherwise make from employing your funds elsewhere in the meantime (to be pedantic that also has to be adjusted to account for your tolerance of risk/variance).
Irrespective of which pricing model you use, as time passes and more information becomes available, you should become better able to estimate what Y is (and adjust your pricing accordingly). My argument also relied on the fact that so far no news has emerged about ASIC or BFL or any other competitor that changes anything significantly. BFL have upped their specs as expected - but the key issue is who delivers first.
Perhaps the waiting time with no updates has weakened the investors' confidence. It may also be as you suggested earlier, a few of the initial investors needed their money for other things (like paying back money they lost on Pirate). |
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Here's a few:
Any of usagi's companies - they can double the value of a security just by buying it. Which is like printing money. And their OBSI.HRPT shares are worth 0.1 when everyone else's are worth <0.02. They also have a sophisticated currency-exchange system which can always be used to find SOME currency in which you made a profit by investing in them (though there could be problems actually converting your shares into monopoly money).
DMC - the guy running that can spot value in deals that everyone else would think was just burning money.
Pirate Debt - you'd lose less money buying this than buying most other securities. And wouldn't have to damage your brain reading retarded weekly reports about how well your investment is doing.
I think you forgot the sarcasm tags? I thought about specifically mentioning I want to stay away from usagi's funds, but I thought that would be covered by the "no scams" stipulation. |
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Today is the first, the report is going to be late.
The short version is:
106 BTC-MINING * 0.975 = 103.35 BTC
1000 BTCMC * 0.590 = 590.00 BTC
1000 ASICMINER * 0.112 = 112 BTC
0.572 BTC uninvested
805.922 total.
11909 shares trading.
Where are you getting a .59 valuation for BTCMC, lowest ask? There's no 24hr volume, only 27BTC 5day volume @ .521, last price and best bid are 0.45, and there's a grand total of 68 shares worth of bid above 0.00011. At least BTC-MINING and ASICMINER have enough 5-day volume to cover your position, but almost 3/4 of your portfolio is tied up in a stock you couldn't sell for anything near what you're valuing at unless you can find a bigger fool to unload it on. It looks like Diablo has been to the Usagi school of accounting, where you value assets at whatever you feel like and hope nobody notices. |
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I guess I can start nominating some:
[glbse] IBB - It is one of the oldest assets still trading. Providing loans at 0% is not as sexy as 7% a week, but it seems to be more sustainable. I am a bit confused why the price has remained so high, despite the early losses from bad loans. New shares are being sold right now, so the NAV is being moved closer to the price. Seems like a decent buy if you can get in below the average market price.
[MPEx] s.dice / [glbse] GSDPT - SatoshiDice - Why gamble when you can own the house?
[MPEx] s.mpoe / [glbse] MPOE.ETF - similar to the previous reasoning, people are trading on it, own a part of the action.
[glbse] BitcoinTorrentz - Another long-standing glbse asset providing a service to the community.
[glbse] MOORE - I think this may qualify as an exception to the mining, since it promises to grow and thus continue increasing payment despite difficulty increases?
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There has been a recent rash of assets closing down. I thought it would be good to make a list of securities which are still worth looking at. Depending on the discussion, I will try to keep an updated list.
What I am looking for is things which are not scams, not mining unless there is something special about it (there are other threads discussing the benefits and detriments of such).
To be included in the list they should be agreed by at least two people. Please do not nominate your own assets.
If at any point news comes up regarding the viability or continued existence of any of these assets, please share and they may be removed from the list.
---
List (will be updated):
S.DICE
S.MPOE
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How about you release a new bond, with a much lower, more sustainable interest rate, like 0.1% weekly, and use the sales of such to buy back this bond? You could also offer to trade shares 1:1 from the old bond to the new bond?
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Does anyone besides the asset issuers have anything left (that's trading still) in their portfolio?
Other than some mining bonds (about to be destroyed by ASICs) I don't think GLBSE has anything left does it? IBB is still trading way above the IPO price (I am not sure why, it is currently about 5-10 times the NAV). BITCOINTORRENTZ has also been pretty steady. |
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.6% monthly yield is equivalent to approximately 7.45% APR, I believe. If that holds, that's quite a good return on an investment that probably won't depreciate as quickly as mining equipment will.
Once the owner blocks sell there's probably going to be some upward movement of shares. That is still something like 23000 btc away. |
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Note: I'm posting logs lately mostly to illustrate for the benefit of forum-hobbled minds that yes, in fact irc is where it's at.
Which channel is this from? |
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Would you consider paying a smaller weekly amount and/or trying to buy back the shares at market prices?
It would have been nice if there was a way to clear out the order book when making such an announcement so people with orders up do not get screwed.
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We will always know there are 100-million Satoshis in a Bitcoin.
We will always know there are 1 million µBTC in a Bitcoin  1 BTC = 1,000 mBTC = 1,000,000 µBTC 0.1 BTC = 100 mBTC = 100,000 µBTC 0.01 BTC = 10 mBTC = 10,000 µBTC 0.001 BTC = 1 mBTC = 1,000 µBTC 0.0001 BTC = 0.1 mBTC = 100 µBTC 0.00001 BTC = 0.01 mBTC = 10 µBTC 0.000001 BTC = 0.001 mBTC = 1 µBTC 0.0000001 BTC = 0.0001 mBTC = 0.1 µBTC 0.00000001 BTC = 0.00001 mBTC = 0.01 µBTC = 1 Satoshi You can remember those conversions or you can just remember 1 Bitcoin, 100 bitcents and 100-million satoshis. See my point? Most people can't even type uBTC much less say "uBTC'. It's so awkward. It is easier to remember it this way: 1,000 millibits per bitcoin, 1,000 microbits per millibit. On a mac it is easy, hold alt and hit the 'm' key to get the µ, which is mu, the greek equivalent for m. But if you type uBTC people will recognise it is actually supposed to be µBTC. Just like if you are talking about small distances and if you say um people understand the context and know you actually mean µm. |
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In Europe, we also use ml (milliliter/millilitre) and mm (millimeter/millimetre). People here have no problem with that.
It takes a moment to get used to, but once you use it a few times it just seems natural. If you pay attention, people sometimes denominate small values in cents, nobody has a problem converting that to dollars. And for large values people sometimes report values in k$ or M$. Right now a US dollar is worth about 80 mBTC. One share of SatoshiDice is going for about 3.4 mBTC. One US cent is now about 0.8 mBTC or 800 µBTC. For speculating on value, I suspect the price will level off at some point, so I don't think we will ever be dealing in satoshis. |
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That policy does not make sense. Ignoring Usagi's trouble calculating what a NAV should be, at the time the contract was "signed" the NAV was below 1.0, so there should have been an imediate payment to bump the NAV up to 1.0. Usagi, am I reading this contract correctly? When is BMF going to ask CPA for the insurance payment? Or is it actually insurance to keep NAV above 1.0 USD, since you seem to like those so much? |
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Still wondering why CPA hasn't paid out on its NAV insurance contract...
Do you have a link to the text of this contract? Usagi starts so many threads I am not sure where to find it. |
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This is pretty concerning however, "GLBSE reporting the data wrong". How is that possible? Maybe the result to every motion to date is in fact bogus?
Or did Usagi just get caught with their pants down fixing the poll? Why would you even do that for such a worthless poll? |
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I might consider lending some shares, but could you explain what you are considering paying to borrow them? If the shares pay out dividends, do I get them or do you?
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I thought it was on the 5th? Which is it?
From the contract: (e)The representatives of SatoshiDice solemnly promise and warrant that complete and accurate Statements of Profit and Loss for each calendar month will be published by them no later than by the fifth day of the new month.
[...]
(f)Immediately upon publication of each Statement of Profit and Loss SatoshiDice will pay to shareholders as dividends a fraction of no less than 100% (one hundred percent) of the Net Profits, if any. So it is no later than the 5th, but it could be as early as the 1st. |
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This seems to be a troll thread.
OBSI sold 1MHS shares for 0.10 and bought them back for 0.10, and he also sold ABMO shares for 0.10 and bought them back for 0.10, and he is also in the process of buying back all of HRPT for IPO price.
So, if hes such the scammer you claim he is, why is he buying them back at all?
But has he bought back at .1 for HRPT? Bid is .02 and ask is .03 with 24 hour average at .044 ? Well, if people are stupid enough to be selling it below IPO price, I can't blame him for buying it back at low prices. 24 hour volume is only 63 BTC. To me it does not look like he is buy much, if any up. He mentioned he was going to buy back OBSI.HRPT at market prices before he disappeared. The number of shares receiving dividend has dropped slightly. Perhaps he will buy up to IPO price (0.1 btc), perhaps not, so it makes sense to sell the shares for what you can get. Although, if he is going to buy them all back, then you could make a lot of money by buying at market price and selling at IPO price. But then again, he might only buy back some and then stop. Futurefund was given a final dividend near market price and then the asset was delisted. |
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Well tomorrow is the 28th....
The thieves have collected a grand total of 3.794578789 BTC
How did they get 9/10ths of a satoshi? |
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