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Author Topic: [ANN] Sia - Decentralized Storage  (Read 1342711 times)
souljah1h
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September 03, 2015, 12:14:07 PM
 #1761

Maybe Taek can shine some light on this

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liondani
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September 03, 2015, 12:34:10 PM
 #1762

Sia only recently popped back on my radar after being mentioned on another site I visit frequently.  

Which was?...  (just curious Smiley)

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September 03, 2015, 12:37:04 PM
 #1763

Why is the price being hit so hard  Huh

People are running away from Sia like it's a toxic investment, I just don't get it.

maybe miners that sell as soon as they get the coins (not really supporters)

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Taek
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September 03, 2015, 12:45:10 PM
 #1764

But I think the major one is lack of clarity to what the total coins will be. I'm hearing 4 billion and then a continual 30,000 added. But tohers are quoting larger numbers.

I wrote a script to tell you how many coins there will be at block height X, and then give a rough approximation of what date that will happen.

http://play.golang.org/p/h_UftCe8-3

It would be nice if someone could turn this into a graph

That was a rookie error by the dev if is this is true. I'm not sure why the dev is puzzled by the price when the emissions are so high, so early on.

Perhaps so. Right now there are 4.7 billion coins. Exactly 1 year from now, my script estimates that there will be 19.6 billion coins. And 2 years from now, 31.0 billion coins.

The inflation curve is much less than Bitcoin's inflation curve for the first year. But at the same time, the first year of bitcoin's were worth almost exactly nothing and were owned by 1 or 2 people total.

To keep the price steady, Sia needs to grow by 4x over the next year. That seems virtually inevitable to me. This week alone Sia grew by about 15%. (despite the price crash)

I'm guessing the supply of coins will also drop fairly substantially one a mining pool is out. There are a lot more people who will be happy to mine on their home rigs and that will push margins down for the giant farm miners, which will send many of them to other coins. People mining on home rigs are less likely to dump.
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September 03, 2015, 01:11:48 PM
 #1765

To keep the price steady, Sia needs to grow by 4x over the next year.

Your goal is to prevent the price from rising?
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September 03, 2015, 01:18:02 PM
 #1766

To keep the price steady, Sia needs to grow by 4x over the next year.

Your goal is to prevent the price from rising?

prevent it from dropping lol. If we grow by more than 4x over the next year, the price should increase substantially. I believe that we will easily grow by more than 4x over the next year.
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September 03, 2015, 02:16:20 PM
Last edit: September 03, 2015, 03:43:10 PM by bitcoinrocks
 #1767

If we grow by more than 4x over the next year, the price should increase substantially.

It looks like the number of coins will increase 4x over the next year so there will need to be 4x the holders just to keep the price from dropping.
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September 03, 2015, 03:22:32 PM
 #1768

Why is the price being hit so hard  Huh
People are running away from Sia like it's a toxic investment, I just don't get it.

The price was about 10 sats before Polo added Sia. It is not really a hard dump. It is just not raising up as we expected with the new exchange and new client and a planed marketing campaign which is on hold now and has not started yet. I think it might have something to do with the new 0.4.0 client which did not meet the expectation. With a better client (UI client as well) and a marketing campaign, we should get some new users and see better price.
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September 03, 2015, 03:38:29 PM
 #1769

Hey gang, I am not panicking lol still holding all my mined coins AND buying up a more as I can from other forms of mining. I think we will see a huge turn around as soon as there is demand for it. Right now there really isn't any. So anyone buying coins are doing so because they understand SIA and have been using it like most of us in this thread. To the average investor who hasn't studied SIA, their not buying yet" and with no mass users for storage I think is only to be expected to see what we are seeing with price. My advise buy em up cheap now while you can! and hold  Wink

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September 03, 2015, 03:55:03 PM
 #1770

Why is the price being hit so hard  Huh

People are running away from Sia like it's a toxic investment, I just don't get it.

Because Siacoins are not an investment. To me the supply model doesn't make any sense if you are concerned about the price per Siacoin.  If hosts set the price of storage, and Sia is divisible, why design a coin that increases so exponentially?  You could have 21 Mil Siacoins and storage would cost just fractions of a Siacoin.  People have no incentive to hold Siacoins right now.  Why would I pay for Siacoins right now when the supply will increase 4x in the next year.  If anything, people are overpaying for Siacoins right now.  Siafunds are the investment, because you are collecting Siacoins by doing nothing.  Or am I wrong here?
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September 03, 2015, 04:06:55 PM
 #1771

Why is the price being hit so hard  Huh

People are running away from Sia like it's a toxic investment, I just don't get it.

Because Siacoins are not an investment. To me the supply model doesn't make any sense if you are concerned about the price per Siacoin.  If hosts set the price of storage, and Sia is divisible, why design a coin that increases so exponentially?  You could have 21 Mil Siacoins and storage would cost just fractions of a Siacoin.  People have no incentive to hold Siacoins right now.  Why would I pay for Siacoins right now when the supply will increase 4x in the next year.  If anything, people are overpaying for Siacoins right now.  Siafunds are the investment, because you are collecting Siacoins by doing nothing.  Or am I wrong here?

An increase of 4X for a pow coin for one year less than one month after the launch seems pretty reasonable for me.
Most of pow coins had such an increase in their beginning.

On the other side, I repeat what I have said : kilo sia would be a better unit of account on exchange both for psychological reason (people prefers high price to give a feeling of value) and for the bid/ask  relative spread (minimum 10% for a price of 10 sat).
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September 03, 2015, 04:13:29 PM
 #1772

Why is the price being hit so hard  Huh

People are running away from Sia like it's a toxic investment, I just don't get it.

Because Siacoins are not an investment. To me the supply model doesn't make any sense if you are concerned about the price per Siacoin.  If hosts set the price of storage, and Sia is divisible, why design a coin that increases so exponentially?  You could have 21 Mil Siacoins and storage would cost just fractions of a Siacoin.  People have no incentive to hold Siacoins right now.  Why would I pay for Siacoins right now when the supply will increase 4x in the next year.  If anything, people are overpaying for Siacoins right now.  Siafunds are the investment, because you are collecting Siacoins by doing nothing.  Or am I wrong here?

An increase of 4X for a pow coin for one year less than one month after the launch seems pretty reasonable for me.
Most of pow coins had such an increase in their beginning.

On the other side, I repeat what I have said : kilo sia would be a better unit of account on exchange both for psychological reason (people prefers high price to give a feeling of value) and for the bid/ask  relative spread (minimum 10% for a price of 10 sat).
I still think there is an element of investment that has to be there. If you believe SIA will gain mass adoption then there is a speculation factor to buy coin while cheap and in its early days as in Microsoft or apple stocks... ( I know that a huge comparison) but for the sake of argument  Grin

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Taek
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September 03, 2015, 04:39:55 PM
 #1773

I think it might have something to do with the new 0.4.0 client which did not meet the expectation.

Sad

hmm I guess not. Do you care to enumerate exactly where it falls short? I think we fixed most of the things in 0.4.1 but it depends on where your priorities are.


Because Siacoins are not an investment. To me the supply model doesn't make any sense if you are concerned about the price per Siacoin.  If hosts set the price of storage, and Sia is divisible, why design a coin that increases so exponentially?  You could have 21 Mil Siacoins and storage would cost just fractions of a Siacoin.  People have no incentive to hold Siacoins right now.  Why would I pay for Siacoins right now when the supply will increase 4x in the next year.  If anything, people are overpaying for Siacoins right now.  Siafunds are the investment, because you are collecting Siacoins by doing nothing.  Or am I wrong here?

The focus is definitely not on making siacoins valuable, but I have been using it as a bit of a yardstick, and I think other people have as well. I will point out that Sia's inflation curve is substantially softer than Bitcoin's during every point in the first 12 years. But it makes sense that the price would be suffering right now as the supply will be doubling again over the next 3 months. That does mean that siacoins are cheap, and newcomers can get a pretty substantially slice of the pie for only a single bitcoin.

But I also think you are wrong about them being worthless overall. There is still a very strict long-term supply on the siacoin, and the price of siacoin has a hard floor based on how much people are using the storage. If people are doing $10,000,000 per month in storage over Sia, then depending on how they set up their contracts there will be a minimum market cap of between $50M and $250M for the siacoin, and that's assuming that people are essentially dumping siacoins as fast as possible. Such a market cap, even 5 years down the road, would put the price of siacoin substantially higher than where it is today. If you believe that Sia has the potential to hit this kind of throughput or more, then the siacoin looks like a very good investment in addition to the siafund.

I don't think most traders are looking at it like that though. And, given that the supply is going to be doubling again in the next 3 months, I'm guessing it will be reasonable to see the price fall some more by Christmas. Though, I really do think that interest in the project is going to pick up in a big way before then, and that should be beneficial for the price even if people are afraid of the large inflation over the coming months.

But, as many have been saying, the really important part here is to pay attention to the storage, pay attention to the number of users, and make sure that people are actually using the system. 0.4.1 will be ready soon, I think that will help.

I am a bit split. A lot of people want me to finish the mining pool, but that's going to take me probably two weeks, and it's going to be two weeks that I'm not spending on storage features. Luke is going to be able to, very shortly, commit most/all of his time to storage features. Even if the price is getting hit hard, it's pretty clear to me that the Sia ecosystem as a whole is advancing. We've got a set of volunteer developers now! That's a huge deal, and it's support that we haven't had up until this point.

Sia is moving in the right direction.
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September 03, 2015, 04:46:18 PM
 #1774

I think it might have something to do with the new 0.4.0 client which did not meet the expectation.

Sad

hmm I guess not. Do you care to enumerate exactly where it falls short? I think we fixed most of the things in 0.4.1 but it depends on where your priorities are.


Because Siacoins are not an investment. To me the supply model doesn't make any sense if you are concerned about the price per Siacoin.  If hosts set the price of storage, and Sia is divisible, why design a coin that increases so exponentially?  You could have 21 Mil Siacoins and storage would cost just fractions of a Siacoin.  People have no incentive to hold Siacoins right now.  Why would I pay for Siacoins right now when the supply will increase 4x in the next year.  If anything, people are overpaying for Siacoins right now.  Siafunds are the investment, because you are collecting Siacoins by doing nothing.  Or am I wrong here?

The focus is definitely not on making siacoins valuable, but I have been using it as a bit of a yardstick, and I think other people have as well. I will point out that Sia's inflation curve is substantially softer than Bitcoin's during every point in the first 12 years. But it makes sense that the price would be suffering right now as the supply will be doubling again over the next 3 months. That does mean that siacoins are cheap, and newcomers can get a pretty substantially slice of the pie for only a single bitcoin.

But I also think you are wrong about them being worthless overall. There is still a very strict long-term supply on the siacoin, and the price of siacoin has a hard floor based on how much people are using the storage. If people are doing $10,000,000 per month in storage over Sia, then depending on how they set up their contracts there will be a minimum market cap of between $50M and $250M for the siacoin, and that's assuming that people are essentially dumping siacoins as fast as possible. Such a market cap, even 5 years down the road, would put the price of siacoin substantially higher than where it is today. If you believe that Sia has the potential to hit this kind of throughput or more, then the siacoin looks like a very good investment in addition to the siafund.

I don't think most traders are looking at it like that though. And, given that the supply is going to be doubling again in the next 3 months, I'm guessing it will be reasonable to see the price fall some more by Christmas. Though, I really do think that interest in the project is going to pick up in a big way before then, and that should be beneficial for the price even if people are afraid of the large inflation over the coming months.

But, as many have been saying, the really important part here is to pay attention to the storage, pay attention to the number of users, and make sure that people are actually using the system. 0.4.1 will be ready soon, I think that will help.

I am a bit split. A lot of people want me to finish the mining pool, but that's going to take me probably two weeks, and it's going to be two weeks that I'm not spending on storage features. Luke is going to be able to, very shortly, commit most/all of his time to storage features. Even if the price is getting hit hard, it's pretty clear to me that the Sia ecosystem as a whole is advancing. We've got a set of volunteer developers now! That's a huge deal, and it's support that we haven't had up until this point.

Sia is moving in the right direction.



As you said we should keep track of users numbers and storage amount to judge how the project is doing. How can find these figures?


I believe in this project in the same way i believe in Getgems, it's not so much a coin but a business we are buying into really. Just like Getgems there is plenty of room in the market storJ and other others don't need to be in competition, the pie is very very big especially when you get the demand for secure cloud storage is and is going to be in the future....the current marketcap $100,000 is kind of ridiculous really. companies will want to use this kind of secure storage.....hard to see why this would fail.
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September 03, 2015, 05:16:59 PM
 #1775

But I also think you are wrong about them being worthless overall.

I certainly don't think Siacoins are worthless. Siacoins have worth if you want to store something. But no one is really storing anything at this point, so it's difficult to know the true value of Siacoin.  It's just speculation.
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September 03, 2015, 05:37:43 PM
Last edit: September 03, 2015, 06:26:16 PM by Tobo
 #1776

Because Siacoins are not an investment. To me the supply model doesn't make any sense if you are concerned about the price per Siacoin.  If hosts set the price of storage, and Sia is divisible, why design a coin that increases so exponentially?  You could have 21 Mil Siacoins and storage would cost just fractions of a Siacoin.  People have no incentive to hold Siacoins right now.  Why would I pay for Siacoins right now when the supply will increase 4x in the next year.  If anything, people are overpaying for Siacoins right now.  Siafunds are the investment, because you are collecting Siacoins by doing nothing.  Or am I wrong here?

At this moment, Siacoins and Siafunds can both be investment. Siacoins holders hold siacons and siafunds holders holde siacoin futures. They both are betting on same stuff. If Sia takes off and gets tons of users in the future they both win. If not, the both lose.

Edit - I forgot to mention the real winners will be the users and those who build business on top of the Sia platform.
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September 03, 2015, 06:13:24 PM
 #1777

But no one is really storing anything

This I think is the most important fact about our entire network. We need to solve this problem.

So, open question: What do you need from Sia in order for you to start using it to store files?

This isn't about hypothetical other people or businesses, but directly about the person reading this post. What is missing from Sia today that is preventing you from wanting to back up your storage.

I can think of two things for me:

1. I'm nervous about spending money on siacoins to back up my data. But I'm going to bite the bullet and allocate 1 million siacoins towards backing up my data.
2. There are no spending limits in the renter yet. When I upload a file, there's still that question of 'what if it screws up?'. This can be solved in 0.4.2 by adding spending limits.
3. Files have to be uploaded 1 by 1. I would rather have some other way to upload files than 1 at a time, especially since my primary use case is backing things up. I think we can also fix this in 0.4.2

and, though this is a lesser deal for me

4. It's annoying to use sunfish right now because I can't upload ascii files. I think that this is already fixed in master  though.
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September 03, 2015, 07:09:28 PM
 #1778

But no one is really storing anything

This I think is the most important fact about our entire network. We need to solve this problem.

So, open question: What do you need from Sia in order for you to start using it to store files?

This isn't about hypothetical other people or businesses, but directly about the person reading this post. What is missing from Sia today that is preventing you from wanting to back up your storage.

I can think of two things for me:

1. I'm nervous about spending money on siacoins to back up my data. But I'm going to bite the bullet and allocate 1 million siacoins towards backing up my data.
2. There are no spending limits in the renter yet. When I upload a file, there's still that question of 'what if it screws up?'. This can be solved in 0.4.2 by adding spending limits.
3. Files have to be uploaded 1 by 1. I would rather have some other way to upload files than 1 at a time, especially since my primary use case is backing things up. I think we can also fix this in 0.4.2

and, though this is a lesser deal for me

4. It's annoying to use sunfish right now because I can't upload ascii files. I think that this is already fixed in master  though.


how the hell does an average user download this wallet anyway? Average user want to click open on something and it friekn opens....so far the wallet is a bunch of files that make no sense to me....I am your average user.
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September 03, 2015, 07:21:28 PM
 #1779


how the hell does an average user download this wallet anyway? Average user want to click open on something and it friekn opens....so far the wallet is a bunch of files that make no sense to me....I am your average user.

https://github.com/NebulousLabs/Sia-UI/releases/tag/v0.3.3.3-beta

click on the .exe
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September 03, 2015, 07:26:13 PM
 #1780


how the hell does an average user download this wallet anyway? Average user want to click open on something and it friekn opens....so far the wallet is a bunch of files that make no sense to me....I am your average user.

https://github.com/NebulousLabs/Sia-UI/releases/tag/v0.3.3.3-beta

click on the .exe


treid that already, says something I think about not having a node, im not 100% cause im using a korean lang computer.
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