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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 631743 times)
Lauda
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April 18, 2014, 01:00:50 PM
 #1121

Let's see when Bitcoin price reaches $10,000+

The the people who bought now will be called early adopters with an unfair advantage.
What about the people who bought in at 0.01$, what would they be?

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April 18, 2014, 02:13:44 PM
 #1122

The title of this topic becomes more funny by the day....

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April 18, 2014, 02:19:24 PM
 #1123

What about the people who bought in at 0.01$, what would they be?

They are also early innovators

I am once again posting the chart:



Everyone who possess any Bitcoins now fall in the category of innovators.
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April 18, 2014, 04:33:58 PM
 #1124

What about the people who bought in at 0.01$, what would they be?

They are also early innovators

I am once again posting the chart:



Everyone who possess any Bitcoins now fall in the category of innovators.

Thanks for bringing this chart to my attention. I shall add it to the top post of my logistics model thread.
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April 18, 2014, 04:42:27 PM
 #1125

What about the people who bought in at 0.01$, what would they be?

They are also early innovators

I am once again posting the chart:



Everyone who possess any Bitcoins now fall in the category of innovators.

Thanks for bringing this chart to my attention. I shall add it to the top post of my logistics model thread.

what do you call the people before the 2.5% ?

also what % are we at now?

If Bitcoin is to become a trillion dollar market,
and market cap now is under 10 billion, isnt that below 1%?


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April 18, 2014, 04:48:07 PM
 #1126

what do you call the people before the 2.5% ?

also what % are we at now?

If Bitcoin is to become a trillion dollar market,
and market cap now is under 10 billion, isnt that below 1%?

We are well below 1% in my opinion. Transaction quantity growth is 3.2x annually so it will take several more years to exceed the reported current quantity of worldwide credit card transactions - 6000x in total. In the below S-Curve chart from my million dollar model, you cannot even see the difference between the price and the horizontal axis.

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April 18, 2014, 05:25:42 PM
 #1127

what do you call the people before the 2.5% ?

See, right now there are less than 3 million people who owns Bitcoins.

In an optimal scenario, there can be 1 billion to 2 billion Bitcoin users (look at the number of people who use CC / WU or even Paypal).

So, right now, we are around 0.2% or 0.3%.

We can call ourselves early innovators.  Grin
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April 18, 2014, 05:36:34 PM
 #1128

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

When bitcoin hits $10,000, I'm gonna spend it all on the 3 Bs... bitches, booze and bong
ple
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April 18, 2014, 05:51:04 PM
 #1129

So if I have just one coin, I will be wealthy?
No, sorry.


Well then how many do I need?
Two
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April 18, 2014, 05:57:02 PM
 #1130

What about the people who bought in at 0.01$, what would they be?

They are also early innovators

I am once again posting the chart:



Everyone who possess any Bitcoins now fall in the category of innovators.
Hello innovator.

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April 18, 2014, 06:24:07 PM
 #1131

When bitcoin hits $10,000, I'm gonna spend it all on the 3 Bs... bitches, booze and bong

You know, one of the mind-bending aspects of the Bitcoin Economy is the notion that merely by postponing spending, you become wealthier. Most observers would say that your plans are not virtuous, in fact they are vices by the very definition of vice.

I am curious to know to what extent you actually execute your plan - which I think will be an option in 2015. I have an hypothesis, without evidence so far, that the Bitcoin Economy encourages virtuous economic behavior, especially saving.

I propose that you consider postponing your binge for 12 additional months, so that your coin will be valued at $100,000 each, and in that time you may have matured sufficiently to spend more wisely - for example helping your loved ones.
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April 18, 2014, 06:59:55 PM
 #1132

When bitcoin hits $10,000, I'm gonna spend it all on the 3 Bs... bitches, booze and bong

You know, one of the mind-bending aspects of the Bitcoin Economy is the notion that merely by postponing spending, you become wealthier. Most observers would say that your plans are not virtuous, in fact they are vices by the very definition of vice.

I am curious to know to what extent you actually execute your plan - which I think will be an option in 2015. I have an hypothesis, without evidence so far, that the Bitcoin Economy encourages virtuous economic behavior, especially saving.

I propose that you consider postponing your binge for 12 additional months, so that your coin will be valued at $100,000 each, and in that time you may have matured sufficiently to spend more wisely - for example helping your loved ones.

SlipperySlope you are kind to respond.  I figured it was pointless to use any logic. Wink

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April 18, 2014, 07:12:15 PM
 #1133

SlipperySlope you are kind to respond.  I figured it was pointless to use any logic. Wink

Ha. I am allowed some pocket petty cash by the fiscal guardian of our household. I could spend it secretly on a variety of legal petty vices, or fast food and such outside my meal plan.

But I am putting every last buck into my local Robocoin ATM.

Virtue feels good - no hangover, no bad buzz headache, no overstuffed greasy food feeling. Just saying.
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April 18, 2014, 08:02:55 PM
 #1134

SlipperySlope you are kind to respond.  I figured it was pointless to use any logic. Wink

Ha. I am allowed some pocket petty cash by the fiscal guardian of our household. I could spend it secretly on a variety of legal petty vices, or fast food and such outside my meal plan.

But I am putting every last buck into my local Robocoin ATM.

Virtue feels good - no hangover, no bad buzz headache, no overstuffed greasy food feeling. Just saying.

I am hoping the price gets to $10,000 so I can put more towards the mission trip I am taking to India in the Fall.  Smiley

I would like to say all my thoughts are virtuous of what I will do when Bitcoin rises, but I have been looking at real estate listings online.  Of course, that could be considered an "investment!"  Grin

But I like to joke that that I am way to cheap to ever spend money on alcohol.  I even have a hard time spending money on soft drinks when we go out to eat!


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April 18, 2014, 09:54:31 PM
 #1135

what do you call the people before the 2.5% ?

also what % are we at now?

If Bitcoin is to become a trillion dollar market,
and market cap now is under 10 billion, isnt that below 1%?

We are well below 1% in my opinion. Transaction quantity growth is 3.2x annually so it will take several more years to exceed the reported current quantity of worldwide credit card transactions - 6000x in total. In the below S-Curve chart from my million dollar model, you cannot even see the difference between the price and the horizontal axis.


So you're predicting $100k at the start of 2016?  That's a bold prediction...!
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April 18, 2014, 10:03:41 PM
 #1136

what do you call the people before the 2.5% ?

also what % are we at now?

If Bitcoin is to become a trillion dollar market,
and market cap now is under 10 billion, isnt that below 1%?

We are well below 1% in my opinion. Transaction quantity growth is 3.2x annually so it will take several more years to exceed the reported current quantity of worldwide credit card transactions - 6000x in total. In the below S-Curve chart from my million dollar model, you cannot even see the difference between the price and the horizontal axis.


So you're predicting $100k at the start of 2016?  That's a bold prediction...!

Some people are predicting that price for next year, or even the end of this year.  I am totally fine with 2016 though.  Grin

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April 18, 2014, 10:15:36 PM
 #1137

But I like to joke that that I am way to cheap to ever spend money on alcohol.  I even have a hard time spending money on soft drinks when we go out to eat!

I am sure now that you would get along great with my wife. She likes the sort of place that lets you bring back the plastic cup from last time to use for ice tea.
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April 18, 2014, 10:32:23 PM
 #1138

But I like to joke that that I am way to cheap to ever spend money on alcohol.  I even have a hard time spending money on soft drinks when we go out to eat!

I am sure now that you would get along great with my wife. She likes the sort of place that lets you bring back the plastic cup from last time to use for ice tea.

Wow!  Free drinks when you bring back a cup?  I don't have any restaurant around here that does that!  There is one place that let's us bring a cup back but we still have to pay 99 cents for a refill. 

I have to thank my husband for trying to teach me that there are times in life to just enjoy ourselves.  He forces me to splurge on some things.  Because of him we have had some very nice dinners out as well as some fantastic vacations.  What I usually try to do is figure out what he is planning on doing anyway and then save as much money as I can on those things!   I even found a company where I could mystery shop at fine dining restaurants.  I was reimbursed up to $200 per meal.  This way we could eat at a really nice place but I would have to pay for it.  The funny thing is that they would required me to order a glass of wine.  I hated doing it though, even if they were paying me back. $10 for one glass is hard for me to justify. Smiley  I still do a few of these "jobs" from time to time.  One of the companies stopped giving assignments though.  Sad  Oh well. 

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April 18, 2014, 10:35:46 PM
 #1139

So you're predicting $100k at the start of 2016?  That's a bold prediction...!

Oh it gets better. The sound math of the logistic model rests on a foundation of assumptions the validity of which we can only guess at.

Here are the notable assumptions of the model to ponder . . .

  • Whether Bitcoin succeeds or fails is a binary decision. It either completely takes over the existing fiat system and therefore becomes extremely valuable, or it utterly fails to do so and its value becomes zero. This opinion is widely held and makes sense - winner takes all, so to speak
  • The behavior of those who learned about Bitcoin already and adopted it, indicates the likely behavior of those who have not yet learned about Bitcoin and may adopt it. Works so far.
  • Despite the presence of serial price bubbles, the average price trend can be modeled as a logistic adoption of technology. Never been tried before. Academic financial literature makes no connection between technology adoption and a price series.
  • The maximum price at full adoption is one million USD. This is the weakest assumption of the model. We could possibly be past the halfway point of adoption now - but I think that is unlikely. Indeed, I can make a weird argument based on the quantity of transactions and Metcalfe's Law that the maximum price could be way, way higher - which the average price of bitcoin would reach by continuing to increase 10x per year until say 2020 should that be the halfway point of adoption. Very hard to believe but the math says so.
  • The logistic model has two other parameters that I fit by hand to make the average trend line fit the price series. This is a weak assumption because there is no math to support it. It very well could be the case that the data series is not long enough to see the true trend. Had I constructed this model in 2011 that is the mistake that I would have made. Only time will tell - perhaps another year to gain more confidence in the hand-fit model parameters.
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April 19, 2014, 05:49:05 AM
 #1140


There is one place that let's us bring a cup back but we still have to pay 99 cents for a refill.

That is what I meant. My wife is so frugal that she hates to see those plastic cups thrown in the trash, which is an obvious waste because Austin does not make commercial recycling as easy as they do for households.

I could go on and on ...

There is long term drought in Central Texas, so I take a shower with a pail between my legs to catch water that she puts on our plants. She saves, washes and reuses those plastic forks and plates routinely thrown away where still works. And she does not really need to work anymore - but does not want to waste her time.

Yep, on and on. I love her.

Quote
He forces me to splurge on some things.

That behavior will come in handy in a few years I think.
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