I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.

[boumalo]

Are you following your own example plan or are you still day trading like earlier this year and late last year?

I have never been daytrading BTC. I sold in Nov-Dec and bought back in Feb, so my classification would be "swingtrading". Before and after that I had very little in exchanges. Of course as the price rises again, I'll have to figure out how to divest. I am open to suggestions from all lawful buyers who pay first, after the price crosses $3000.

I'm not against the plan you pose above, in fact I support it, but it is easier said than done when your motto is to diversify. Price upticks generally get people to sell.

Problem with people's natural instinct is that they sell in the meager upticks in the early part of the move and then don't sell when the price goes ballistic, which would be a good time to sell (with a plan).

All in all, people who keep their funds on exchanges to attempt to scalp the markets will likely end up losing purely based on the single biggest security issue with that type of method, 3rd party risk.

I also lost BTC250 with Mt.Gox, and I am not proud of it since it was a losign proposition to start with. But that was still only a fraction of my gains made by swingtrading last winter.

Wow you make my meager holdings look even more pitiful. I do not have the skills nor the psychological make up for day trading but would you be willing to explain swing trading a bit more? I understand if you don't want to share any secrets, but as someone that is all ready at a place I can only hope to reach one day anything you would be willing to share would be most welcome.

When Rpietila is talking about swing trading, he is referring to selling only on very large upwards price swings, and buying back at a lower point with those proceeds.

Even swing trading cannot be timed exactly, so for example Rpietila bought a lot of coins below $10 and below $100 (he claims to have more than 10K coins, which I have NO reason to doubt).  In November 2013, when the price spiked, beyond $600 per coins, Rptiela sold 2K coins (or something like that); however he regretted not waiting a bit longer.  In any event, when he began to sell at $600, BTC prices were well above the trend line, so it is really difficult to predict that the price is going to double again from there and so quickly.

Currently, the trend line is in dispute, and probably Rptiela will put the trend line in the $1200 or greater area, yet I am much more conservative, and I would put the trendline around $800 to $900.  In either case, if BTC prices quickly go into the $2,000 price arena, then neither of us disagrees that we are above the trendline, but each of us may conclude at a different point about when to sell and how much to sell.  Rptiela is NOT selling his whole stash, but only a percentage of it.. 10 to 20%.. and then hopefully buying back, but at the time of sale, he may have received much more than a 4-6x price growth. 

On the other hand, if prices only inch up for several months and even years, there may be some debate about whether the trendline has shifted or where exactly is the trendline, in order to know exactly when to swing trade.  Yet, if you hold a stash that has appreciated 4x or more, it would be prudent to rake some of those profits, and if your BTC stash has appreciated by 10x, you are in a much more solid position to take up to 20% of the stash as profits, and you would have taken out double what you had originally invested into it.



This swing trading is NOT typical day trading but still retains many of the prediction and analysis risks, but frequently, if you have bought fairly low and then there is a considerable appreciation in your BTC stash, then you can take various measures to take some of those profits and/or to reinvest some of those profits to increase your stash.  One problem with continuing to increase your stash and never taking profits is that if the asset goes completely belly up, then you will have NOTHING to show for all of the profits that you have made.  In that regard, it is very prudent to have a plan for taking profits.  My plan for taking profits begins at around the 4x level.... however, if I am paying some attention to BTC prices and movement and politics at the time that my stash reaches the 4x price range, then I may adjust  some of the specifics of my selling depending on what is going on in the BTC space at the time. 

Sometimes, it may be better to NOT engage at all (b/c any of us can easily predict wrongly b/c of the many factors including price manipulators), but just lay out a predetermined plan for taking out money at certain price points or to reinvest certain amounts of money at certain price points.

If you sell at 2000$ in a few months and the price goes to 4000$-5000$ soon after then has a correction back to 3000-3500$ and only goes up from there you will have lost a lot

R is very connected to the market and make big moves when he is sure of the move, he will still make mistakes but he has been making bitcoins that way, congratulations to him

[1714303584]

1714303584

[1714303584]

1714303584

[jonald_fyookball]

Exactly.  Easy to say "sell on bubble peaks and rebuy at a lower price" but you can damage your long term profits if you get the timing wrong. 

[Este Nuno]

Exactly.  Easy to say "sell on bubble peaks and rebuy at a lower price" but you can damage your long term profits if you get the timing wrong. 

99% of people will not be able to do this with a positive expected value. They might as well be flipping coins.

It's possible to have an edge if you really have a solid understanding of the bitcoin market, but most people who think they do, don't.

[jonald_fyookball]

Exactly.  Easy to say "sell on bubble peaks and rebuy at a lower price" but you can damage your long term profits if you get the timing wrong. 

99% of people will not be able to do this with a positive expected value. They might as well be flipping coins.

It's possible to have an edge if you really have a solid understanding of the bitcoin market, but most people who think they do, don't.

For most people with decent holdings of BTC, it is not worth it to risk trading, even if you're a good trader.  Long term projections are too high to justify the risk.  Actually a better strategy would be simply dollar coat averaging and holding.  You can try to sell some at peaks but make sure the percentage is small. Like reptilia said, have a plan.

[Bit_Happy]

If you want to be "the new wealthy elite" selling a moderate % on large rallies will get you there faster, since (eventual) corrections are a certainty. Trading isn't easy, but it IS very profitable for the small % of people who learn to be really good at it.

[Ron~Popeil]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

[Swordsoffreedom]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it.  

Congrats on working your way up to becoming one of the new wealthy elite
Anyways 1 BTC is certainty a good start especially from Scratch
To 2 by the end of the year

[Ron~Popeil]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

Congrats on working your way up to becoming one of the new wealthy elite
Anyways 1 BTC is certainty a good start especially from Scratch
To 2 by the end of the year

Thanks! I will be in double digits by the end of the year. It is funny to me now because the old faucets amounts were so small. I didn't care at the time but I spent a LOT of time filling out captchas in the beginning. The tiny payouts would not be worth my time now but they were the seed of something that grows a bit faster every day.

[jbreher]

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

A toast to your perseverance! You now have at least one part out of 21 million of this thing - not bad, for one out of billions of population. May you be richly rewarded.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Just watch out for scams.

[Anon136]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

7billion/21million=333. You have 333 times as many bitcoins as the average human being. If bitcoins ever become really big and used by most of the people in the world, you will be in a VERY good position.

[Ron~Popeil]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

7billion/21million=333. You have 333 times as many bitcoins as the average human being. If bitcoins ever become really big and used by most of the people in the world, you will be in a VERY good position.

Thanks! I am starting to move small fiat into bit coin now that I understand the basics. I should be in double digits before Christmas. 

[Ron~Popeil]

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

A toast to your perseverance! You now have at least one part out of 21 million of this thing - not bad, for one out of billions of population. May you be richly rewarded.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Just watch out for scams.

Thanks! I actually spend more time reading the scam forums than anything at this site. I was lucky in way to get into it just as Gox was going down. It was an instant education to say the least. 

[Justin00]

lol who is this we business ?

sooo many people could of been wealthy from bitcoin, but I suspect not many ended up making it big time.

real shame, but hey noone is pychic .

wish I was... litecoin, ppc, bitcoin and not heaaps and heaps of alt coins to be making a killing on.
but ya.. not pychic so bloody grrr

[Erdogan]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

Just a warning about the swing trading. It is easy to see the patterns, it is easy to see the frequency of the swings happening, connect it to the theoretical exponential baseline afterwards. It is much more difficult to know in real time, that is when you need to know if you trade. You stare at the curve, you think you see it flatten out, expect a reversion - then suddenly, it continues.

It is easy to see now that selling at 1000 and buying at 500 would double your amount of coins. But what if you sold at 400, believing that was the top? Then waited too long to buy back, because you believed 340 was not the bottom? You could end up coinless.

Trading means sometimes being in, sometimes out. It was said just a few posts ago, the expectation is so good, the highest risk is to be out. You can be in all the time and get your reward. That is, if you believe in bitcoin.

[twistyfy]

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Bitcoin can go no where but up at this point

[boumalo]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

Just a warning about the swing trading. It is easy to see the patterns, it is easy to see the frequency of the swings happening, connect it to the theoretical exponential baseline afterwards. It is much more difficult to know in real time, that is when you need to know if you trade. You stare at the curve, you think you see it flatten out, expect a reversion - then suddenly, it continues.

It is easy to see now that selling at 1000 and buying at 500 would double your amount of coins. But what if you sold at 400, believing that was the top? Then waited too long to buy back, because you believed 340 was not the bottom? You could end up coinless.

Trading means sometimes being in, sometimes out. It was said just a few posts ago, the expectation is so good, the highest risk is to be out. You can be in all the time and get your reward. That is, if you believe in bitcoin.

There is a risk in trading, the very skilled will win and the other will probably lose if they don't get lucky; to be skilled you have to be connected to the market and to have experienced trading before

http://astrohacker.com/ahc/bitcoin-is-the-economic-singularity/

After reading this, the scale of black market and digital economies and the effect Bitcoin will have on them I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins. It's just so hard to believe. We are only in the beginning storms with these significant rallies from 10 to 20 dollars. I will not be surprised to see prices from hundreds to thousands in the coming months.

The world just isn't going to be the same and we have been blessed as the pioneers.

What are you going to do with your Bitcoin wealth once your coins hit upwards of $10,000 a pop?

Bitcoin can go no where but up at this point

The FED is printing like there is no tomorrow, the debts are getting bigger and bigger in the western world and the banks are still kind of careless

[wachtwoord]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

Just a warning about the swing trading. It is easy to see the patterns, it is easy to see the frequency of the swings happening, connect it to the theoretical exponential baseline afterwards. It is much more difficult to know in real time, that is when you need to know if you trade. You stare at the curve, you think you see it flatten out, expect a reversion - then suddenly, it continues.

It is easy to see now that selling at 1000 and buying at 500 would double your amount of coins. But what if you sold at 400, believing that was the top? Then waited too long to buy back, because you believed 340 was not the bottom? You could end up coinless.

Trading means sometimes being in, sometimes out. It was said just a few posts ago, the expectation is so good, the highest risk is to be out. You can be in all the time and get your reward. That is, if you believe in bitcoin.

I made this argument many times. Being out of Bitcoin (even partially) is just more risky then the lost opportunity cost when it takes off. Sure you make money 99 out of a 100 times but that 1 time you miss the boat is more expensive than the 99 times combined have brought profit. Doing nothing can be hard for a lot of people, but you need to do this anyway.

[EFFV]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

Just a warning about the swing trading. It is easy to see the patterns, it is easy to see the frequency of the swings happening, connect it to the theoretical exponential baseline afterwards. It is much more difficult to know in real time, that is when you need to know if you trade. You stare at the curve, you think you see it flatten out, expect a reversion - then suddenly, it continues.

It is easy to see now that selling at 1000 and buying at 500 would double your amount of coins. But what if you sold at 400, believing that was the top? Then waited too long to buy back, because you believed 340 was not the bottom? You could end up coinless.

Trading means sometimes being in, sometimes out. It was said just a few posts ago, the expectation is so good, the highest risk is to be out. You can be in all the time and get your reward. That is, if you believe in bitcoin.

I made this argument many times. Being out of Bitcoin (even partially) is just more risky then the lost opportunity cost when it takes off. Sure you make money 99 out of a 100 times but that 1 time you miss the boat is more expensive than the 99 times combined have brought profit. Doing nothing can be hard for a lot of people, but you need to do this anyway.

For this reason I do very little trading.

[bitpop]

Trading is a losing game
One bear trap ends you

[Ron~Popeil]

Thanks for all the information guys. I have much to learn and even more work to acquire enough bit coin to make it worthwhile. I do appreciate the time you guys have taken to explain in some more detail.

I did reach one whole bit coin today finally so that is a start.  

That is a pittance compared to most people but I started from scratch in March and built it up using faucets and then small investments so I feel kind of proud of it. 

Just a warning about the swing trading. It is easy to see the patterns, it is easy to see the frequency of the swings happening, connect it to the theoretical exponential baseline afterwards. It is much more difficult to know in real time, that is when you need to know if you trade. You stare at the curve, you think you see it flatten out, expect a reversion - then suddenly, it continues.

It is easy to see now that selling at 1000 and buying at 500 would double your amount of coins. But what if you sold at 400, believing that was the top? Then waited too long to buy back, because you believed 340 was not the bottom? You could end up coinless.

Trading means sometimes being in, sometimes out. It was said just a few posts ago, the expectation is so good, the highest risk is to be out. You can be in all the time and get your reward. That is, if you believe in bitcoin.

Yeah for now I just a have a few safe investments. I have a lot more studying to do before even thinking about trying to trade. I spend a lot of time reading in the speculation forum. You can learn a lot from the the success of others and even more from their mistakes.