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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 508361 times)
boumalo
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June 12, 2014, 07:51:45 PM
 #1581

Not really thought about what I would do if money profits of Bitcoin, you gave me my dream theme night Tongue

You will find a way to spend your bitcoins believe me Grin

It is a problem you want to have

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June 12, 2014, 08:02:44 PM
 #1582

JayJuanGee: Keep cool, you are doing well.

JayJuanGee
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June 12, 2014, 08:21:12 PM
 #1583

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Question....how much one would need to have (in BTC) now, to be considered wealthy men in future....2-3 years from now? Would 1 BTC be enough for reasonable comfy life? Or maybe 10? Or less?

Quote
...I only began investing in BTC in November 2013, at the high of the last price bubble, about $1,200 through Localbitcoins.com.  Since I recognized the existence of a recent exorbitant increase in BTC prices, I began my BTC investment with a fairly conservative dollar cost averaging strategy, and with some frontloading, and I calculated that I would make my initial investment(s) over 6 months, rather than front-loading all of my investment at that then current price point.  Accordingly, my first BTC was $1,200 through localbitcoins.com; however, currently my average per BTC is about $614, including transaction fees.

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I expect the percentage of my investment into bitcoin to continue to fluctuate based on my monitoring and reassessing the whole investment landscape and how I feel that bitcoin and my involvement fits into that. .. though at the moment, I am thinking that I want to be diversified somewhat out of the dollar (and dollar related products), and achieving a portfolio that is 50% out of the dollar may be an o.k. level of diversification for me and my feelings.

FWIW these comments are largely in line with my own situation & experience as well... but a bit different too, LOL.

I too only finally sat up and paid attention to bitcoin (after having heard about it, vaguely, more than a year earlier) starting around last October.

I remember reading it was currently worth $400 and thinking, "I bet it'll go to $500 pretty soon" being as how that's a sort of psychological price point.  So, I tried to sign up on MtGox to buy some bitcoin, but their stupid registration approval process was running so slow, I never got a chance to do anything, all the way thru the big run-up in December.  Just sat there watching it and thinking I missed out.  In hindsight however, thank GOD that I did not put my money into GOX, LOL...

Anyway, after doing more research I finally found COINBASE and started buying around end of December, early January.  My average price has also gone from $700-ish to like $550-ish at the moment.

My goal is also to get 50 BTC piled up ASAP, and after some mis-steps I'm currently in the 20-ish ballpark.  I was as high as 40 at one point but didn't manage to stay there, unfortunately... (long story.)

Anyway, my question for you guys is, at the moment I believe I could get to "40" again, immediately, but ONLY if I totally liquidate every other asset that I currently hold... mainly some gold & silver but also "cash on hand" for "emergency" etc that's usually left sitting totally unproductive in the stupid bank, just left there for convenience, and maybe selling off some unused computer gear.

Basically, and contrary to being 'diversified' as is usually good solid advice, I could get to 40 again TODAY (i.e. nearly my goal of 50, then maybe accumulate the last 10 by trading a bit over the next year or two) by basically "GOING ALL-IN" right now with BITCOIN, almost totally exclusively.

The reason I believe I need 50 is because, to be minimally financially secure in my current lifestyle I believe my wife and I (no kids) will need a retirement portfolio asset base of about $500,000 net worth equivalent.

A half-million dollars net worth equivalent, would be my basic "relax and sleep soundly at night" number, in other words.

I believe bitcoin COULD do this for me IF ONLY there is at least JUST ONE MORE cycle of the 10X yearly wave, that's repeated 6 times already so far over the last 6 years since bitcoin was invented.

Moreover, I am not aware of any other asset or business opportunity, available right now, that even MIGHT be able to achieve this.

And even if BTC never achieves the last two projected 10X wave/cycles to $100K or $1M million... if it only gets to $10K, but I own 50 of 'em?  Well, there we are. $500K. Done and done.

Then if Risto and SlipperySlope, etc are RIGHT, and it keeps going, from there?  To maybe $50,000,000?  Well All Right Then!  No Problemo! Smiley

In that case, I got my eye on a nice private island near Vanuatu which I imagine would be very pleasant for retirement  Grin

But still, going ALL-IN is pretty scary, and risky too... kinda.  But y'know kinda it's NOT EITHER, since bitcoin just FEELS to ME like I remember things "felt" when I first saw Microsoft Windows running on a DOS computer, then again when I first used e-mail, then when the first Mosaic web browser appeared for accessing the "WWW" Internet.

I really just have a gut instinct, feeling, perception, that bitcoin's gonna be the same phenomenon.

SO... Aaaaaaa.... what to do, what to do?  
Go "ALL IN" or NOT?  
How much is enough???  
"Aaaaaaaa"  LOL

Anyone else decided this for themselves, either PRO or CON???   Undecided Undecided Undecided Undecided Undecided




I believe your questions about how much and how fast to invest into BTC are ones that many BTC investors wrestle with, and each of us have to resolve these boundaries for ourselves within our risk tolerances.

Personally, I do NOT invest more than I believe I could lose; however and nonetheless, I would suffer incredible psychological set backs if bitcoin were to go to zero... or some pricepoint that approximate neighborhood.

I have a fairly thorough system in place (using spreadsheets) to monitor my projected cash flow over the coming 12 to 18 months, and frequently I am adding to its timeline in order to maintain my cashflow projection.    Accordingly, I never invest more than I am able to project my cash flow for the whole time period, and so far none of that time period to late 2015 am I relying upon cash proceeds from bitcoin - however, if the price appreciates considerably (and beyond my expectations, such as into the $2500+ range), I am going to be cashing out parts of my BTC portfolio.  Also, I may begin to cash out and reinvest if prices are in the $800 to $2,500 range.

Anyhow, I project my cashflow ahead in such a way that I remain fairly positive that all of my bases are covered.


If you are projecting to achieve a $500K equivalent in value in your bitcoin holdings (and/or other liquid assets), by when do you want to achieve this?  And, once you achieve this $500k you would need to ensure that the amount is stable, in order that you can live off the income that it generates, no?  Or, if you plan to eat into the $500k principle, then how many years would you need the total to last?

Personally, I believe that a lot of investors in bitcoin expect bitcoin to be a great holder of value, so long as it achieves mass adoption, and maybe in that regard, and even if bitcoin gains 50% value each year, then you would NOT need to worry about eating away at the principle, so long as the asset (bitcoin) is sufficiently increasing in value.... and 50% is a very decent appreciation.. .yet we have to continue to monitor bitcoin to find out if it is going to continue to appreciate in very high amounts.  I believe it is pie in the sky to expect 5x to 10X returns per year in the coming years; however, it is NOT beyond the realm of possibilities... So I would NOT be totally shocked if it did return somewhere between 5x and 10x in the coming years - nonetheless, I personally am NOT going to bet the farm on it, b/c that is NOT my investment style or risk tolerance.










JayJuanGee
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June 12, 2014, 08:24:23 PM
 #1584

JayJuanGee: Keep cool, you are doing well.



Sometimes my posts do get a little long...  and hopefully I can keep them shorter....  Cool

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June 12, 2014, 08:30:26 PM
 #1585

JayJuanGee: Keep cool, you are doing well.



Sometimes my posts do get a little long...  and hopefully I can keep them shorter....  Cool

I just suspected that the long articles was because you are still underwater and leveraged... Smiley
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June 12, 2014, 11:50:29 PM
 #1586

JayJuanGee: Keep cool, you are doing well.



Sometimes my posts do get a little long...  and hopefully I can keep them shorter....  Cool

Do what I do.  Every time you make a long post, check it.  If you can read it back and still think you weren't just blathering, then it should go up on a blog!

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June 12, 2014, 11:51:46 PM
 #1587

JayJuanGee: Keep cool, you are doing well.



Sometimes my posts do get a little long...  and hopefully I can keep them shorter....  Cool

I just suspected that the long articles was because you are still underwater and leveraged... Smiley

O.k... You seem to be saying that your post was an attempt to be patronizing, by suggesting that I am allowing the emotion of my own position to influence my framing of issues.  Accordingly, it seems that you have NOT read much, if any of my posts.  Possibly you were skimming.. .and figured that you could contribute in your post by getting a quick assessment of the situation?

I have been pretty clear about describing my personal position and my investment strategy(ies) in this and other threads... including that my average cost per BTC is about $614.. and I am continuing to add to my position.

My portfolio was in the red for quite a while from most of February through most of May, but so fucking what?  My portfolio was also in the black from May 30 until today, but so fucking what?

I do NOT post here in order to attempt to influence the direction of the BTC market - at least NOT in any short-term way...   On the other hand, I am fairly optimistic about the long-term prospects of BTC, and I have NOT been too worried about my investment strategy for the long term and given the fundamentals of BTC and the whole hell-a-va lot of infrastructure developments.

I remain optimistic that I am going to be personally coming out ahead on my investments b/c I tend NOT to trade, and I bring down my average price per BTC when the prices get lower.  Accordingly, even if my personal portfolio stays in the red for 6 months more months, that would NOT cause me from believing that the price is likely going to appreciate considerably - and my own expectations are fairly conservative (within the 6% per year range)... but I need NOT go into further details about those kinds of considerations with you, b/c you probably do NOT read details of any post (or understand them) before you reach or at least you propagate what you proclaim to be your various conclusions / assumptions about the motivations of other posters.


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June 12, 2014, 11:58:05 PM
 #1588

JayJuanGee: Keep cool, you are doing well.



Sometimes my posts do get a little long...  and hopefully I can keep them shorter....  Cool

Do what I do.  Every time you make a long post, check it.  If you can read it back and still think you weren't just blathering, then it should go up on a blog!




You are quite funny.  

I did NOT make any suggestion that i was blathering...  that is your additional idea......  And, i was NOT asking for any suggestions about how to shorten posts b/c if I wanted, I could make shorter posts. 

Nonetheless, I do concede that some of the ideas that I share in some of my posts may have been made shorter or that the length of such posts may be more than the tolerance of others.  If I were writing a book or a published article, then I may employ different considerations... sometimes I read back through my posts, and other times I do NOT.. depends upon how I feel and how complicated that I consider the ideas of the post to be.

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June 14, 2014, 08:10:20 PM
 #1589

Personally, I believe that a lot of investors in bitcoin expect bitcoin to be a great holder of value, so long as it achieves mass adoption, and maybe in that regard, and even if bitcoin gains 50% value each year, then you would NOT need to worry about eating away at the principle, so long as the asset (bitcoin) is sufficiently increasing in value.... and 50% is a very decent appreciation.. .yet we have to continue to monitor bitcoin to find out if it is going to continue to appreciate in very high amounts.  I believe it is pie in the sky to expect 5x to 10X returns per year in the coming years; however, it is NOT beyond the realm of possibilities... So I would NOT be totally shocked if it did return somewhere between 5x and 10x in the coming years - nonetheless, I personally am NOT going to bet the farm on it, b/c that is NOT my investment style or risk tolerance.

I found this (written by Melbustus) in another thread here on the forum :: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=636288.msg7093618#msg7093618

...which to me seems very relevant to this discussion, so I'm copying it here (but mods, please delete if it's off topic? Not sure...)

Quote
Melbustus
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Re: what caused the rise to $1100 last year?
June 02, 2014, 05:52:55 PM
   
Bitcoin is a finite-supply asset with a potential market size as big as the planet. Every 6-18 months since trading began in 2010, there have been these huge boom phases where new groups of people discover bitcoin, read up about it, and realize that's it's near-perfect electronic cash; something that had not been possible until bitcoin. Then other less-diligent people pile on.

Bitcoin has potential applications for ultimately handling huge payment volumes across the internet, as well as replacing some portion of traditional store-of-value assets (gold, silver) since it exhibits all of the same properties without the tangibility bug.

So there are these phases of people realizing the above and buying bitcoin, which then creates a positive feedback loop which eventually starts to suck in get-rich-quick folks and momentum traders who don't really understand the above but just see an asset appreciating in value and they don't want to miss out. So those crazy spikes occur.

The boom/bust cycle is likely to continue happening until one of two things occurs:

1. ) Bitcoin achieves a large enough market-cap and user-base that everyone who is going to has heard of it, researched it, and understands it to a reasonable degree.

2. ) Bitcoin fails completely (either an unresolvable technical issue, or governments all over the world coordinate in an extremely aggressive crackdown with far-reaching consequences for western-style freedom and democracy in general).


FOR ME, it's well-written and knowledgable "big picture" comments like this, that encourage me to feel confident "betting the farm" (MAYBE?) on bitcoin, for my future financial security. 

Option #2 above really seems unlikely to me, at this point.  Any serious flaw in the bitcoin code will be FIXED come hell or high water. There's too much at stake for all the world's best brainpower (and VC money etc) to just let it roll over and die.  And the "government attack" catastrophe also seems unlikely to happen, since doing that will IMHO cause them more problems than it solves.

Hence... BITCOIN FTW!! 
Possibly just inevitable and unstoppable, only a matter of how much TIME (?) it will take.

Anyway, I'm still not ALL-IN *yet* but really seriously trying to find a way to get there, ASAP, and in as risk-reduced (but of course not risk-free, which is impossible) a stature & status posture, as humanly possible...
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June 14, 2014, 10:35:31 PM
 #1590

I think you're the only who can answer your question.  I simply dollar cost average in a little every month.  I hope to get up to 100 BTCs eventually, but I guess that depends on price and a continuation of my belief in BTC and it's future.  Scaling in over time and scaling out with appreciation (hopefully) is the way to go in my opinion. 
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June 15, 2014, 08:33:00 AM
 #1591

I think you're the only who can answer your question.  I simply dollar cost average in a little every month.  I hope to get up to 100 BTCs eventually, but I guess that depends on price and a continuation of my belief in BTC and it's future.  Scaling in over time and scaling out with appreciation (hopefully) is the way to go in my opinion. 

100BTC is a good amount of BTC to enjoy the upside potential

If November/December was a small bubble and we get a new bubble is a bit it may push the price close to 10,000$ then go down to a few thousands

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June 15, 2014, 08:51:15 AM
 #1592

Why price started decreasing again?
boumalo
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June 15, 2014, 09:34:02 AM
 #1593

Why price started decreasing again?

Silk Road bitcoins returning on the market, China fud, fear of 51% risk and thinking that the probability that the price could go down way more is increasing

The price may go lower but the upside potential is still huge and positive news have been piling up

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June 15, 2014, 09:35:59 AM
 #1594

Why price started decreasing again?

Two reasons mainly.

1. GHash is approaching the 51% share of the total hash power, despite Bitfury pulling out a few of their rigs from that pool.
2. The FBI is auctioning BTC29,000 this week, which were seized from Silk Road.

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June 15, 2014, 09:47:47 AM
 #1595

Why price started decreasing again?

Two reasons mainly.

1. GHash is approaching the 51% share of the total hash power, despite Bitfury pulling out a few of their rigs from that pool.
2. The FBI is auctioning BTC29,000 this week, which were seized from Silk Road.
If you read the news on a few sites such as Coindesk, one could have expected this.
Ghash can manipulate the price like this.


             ▄████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████▄
            ██                          ▄▄▄▄▄▄                           ██
           ██  ██████                ▄██████████▄     ████████████████████▀
          ██  ████████             ▄████▀   ▀████▄    ████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
         ██  ████  ████           ████▀       ▀██▀    ████
        ██  ████    ████        ▄███▀                 ████

       ██  ████      ████       ███▀                  ████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
      ██  ████        ████      ███                   ██████████████
     ██  ████          ████     ███▄                  ████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀

    ██  ████████████████████    ▀████                 ████
   ██  ██████████████████████    ▀████▄        ▄██▄   ████

  ██  ████                ████     ▀████▄   ▄████▀    ████▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 ██  ████                  ████      ▀██████████▀     ████████████████████▄
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boumalo
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June 15, 2014, 10:43:39 AM
 #1596

Why price started decreasing again?

Two reasons mainly.

1. GHash is approaching the 51% share of the total hash power, despite Bitfury pulling out a few of their rigs from that pool.
2. The FBI is auctioning BTC29,000 this week, which were seized from Silk Road.
If you read the news on a few sites such as Coindesk, one could have expected this.
Ghash can manipulate the price like this.

We lost 100$ out of 670$ so 15% and it may be a bear trap

We are not far away from a huge spike up in price, excitation, big hopes and crazyness

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June 15, 2014, 12:51:27 PM
 #1597

Why price started decreasing again?

Two reasons mainly.

1. GHash is approaching the 51% share of the total hash power, despite Bitfury pulling out a few of their rigs from that pool.
2. The FBI is auctioning BTC29,000 this week, which were seized from Silk Road.
I think you second opinion is ok for this down fall again because they are selling more then 5000 btc just because of this its going down

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June 15, 2014, 01:44:17 PM
 #1598

Why price started decreasing again?

Two reasons mainly.

1. GHash is approaching the 51% share of the total hash power, despite Bitfury pulling out a few of their rigs from that pool.
2. The FBI is auctioning BTC29,000 this week, which were seized from Silk Road.
I think you second opinion is ok for this down fall again because they are selling more then 5000 btc just because of this its going down

I think people are thinking that they may be selling 30k or even 30k+144k soon

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June 15, 2014, 02:34:25 PM
 #1599

I think people are thinking that they may be selling 30k or even 30k+144k soon

Nope. They won't be able to sell the 144K anytime soon. Ross Ullbricht's (DPR) lawyers have filed a civil suit in the court, accusing the FBI of illegally confiscating his coins. The trial is currently ongoing. The FBI won't be able to touch those coins, until the trial is over. The 29K on the other hand, was seized from the Silk Road wallet.

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June 15, 2014, 03:43:01 PM
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I think people are thinking that they may be selling 30k or even 30k+144k soon

Nope. They won't be able to sell the 144K anytime soon. Ross Ullbricht's (DPR) lawyers have filed a civil suit in the court, accusing the FBI of illegally confiscating his coins. The trial is currently ongoing. The FBI won't be able to touch those coins, until the trial is over. The 29K on the other hand, was seized from the Silk Road wallet.

You are correct the 29k can be sold and they will be able to sell the 144k as soon as they won the trial

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