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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 508124 times)
boumalo
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April 21, 2014, 12:07:57 AM
 #1181

Personally, I think that we have to walk before we run, and surely bitcoin, in its short life, has had a truly amazing growth path - which causes these very extravagant predictions.  

I understand  and appreciate bitcoin fundamentals enough  to realize that any of the scenarios are possible - even 10x growth per year is possible.  

. . .

I can grasp that 10x is possible and plausible... but seems a bit too much for the infrastructure to absorb into such a short period of time - especially going from $50k to $500k - I have a very hard time envisioning that - however, I do recognize that if any medium size country picked up bitcoin as its national currency, then those scenarios are completely reasonable - and there are a variety of other adoption scenarios that could continue the 10x growth per year for several years into the future.... but somewhere between 2x and 5x growth seems much more within the grasp of the possible.

. . .

I am NOT sure whether this kind of a BTC appreciation model is sustainable, but it does seem possible at some point to enter into a period of an ongoing average appreciation of BTC value somewhere between 10-20% per year.

The price history of bitcoin shows 10x growth per year on average, which is supported by 3.2x average growth in both bitcoin addresses and adjusted number of bitcoin transactions - according to Metcalfe's Law. My own logistic model of bitcoin prices says that this growth rate will continue on average, actually very slightly diminishing, until we reach the midpoint of adoption. We could already be past that point but the preponderance of evidence in my opinion, is that the Bitcoin Economy is far from reaching that point.

After the mid point of adoption average price growth rates will rapidly diminish, reaching the levels you mention or lower.

Past performance does not guarantee future results but I like your bullish point of vue

The number of people knowing Bitcoin, liking Bitcoin, using Bitcoin is growing everyday, way more than the number of bitcoins; world wealth is increasing as well and the western financial system is going down within years

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jonald_fyookball
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April 21, 2014, 12:28:47 AM
 #1182

Personally, I think that we have to walk before we run, and surely bitcoin, in its short life, has had a truly amazing growth path - which causes these very extravagant predictions.  

I understand  and appreciate bitcoin fundamentals enough  to realize that any of the scenarios are possible - even 10x growth per year is possible.  

. . .

I can grasp that 10x is possible and plausible... but seems a bit too much for the infrastructure to absorb into such a short period of time - especially going from $50k to $500k - I have a very hard time envisioning that - however, I do recognize that if any medium size country picked up bitcoin as its national currency, then those scenarios are completely reasonable - and there are a variety of other adoption scenarios that could continue the 10x growth per year for several years into the future.... but somewhere between 2x and 5x growth seems much more within the grasp of the possible.

. . .

I am NOT sure whether this kind of a BTC appreciation model is sustainable, but it does seem possible at some point to enter into a period of an ongoing average appreciation of BTC value somewhere between 10-20% per year.

The price history of bitcoin shows 10x growth per year on average, which is supported by 3.2x average growth in both bitcoin addresses and adjusted number of bitcoin transactions - according to Metcalfe's Law. My own logistic model of bitcoin prices says that this growth rate will continue on average, actually very slightly diminishing, until we reach the midpoint of adoption. We could already be past that point but the preponderance of evidence in my opinion, is that the Bitcoin Economy is far from reaching that point.

After the mid point of adoption average price growth rates will rapidly diminish, reaching the levels you mention or lower.

Past performance does not guarantee future results but I like your bullish point of vue

The number of people knowing Bitcoin, liking Bitcoin, using Bitcoin is growing everyday, way more than the number of bitcoins; world wealth is increasing as well and the western financial system is going down within years

So is that good news for us early adopter folks? :-)
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April 21, 2014, 01:59:36 AM
 #1183

Personally, I think that we have to walk before we run, and surely bitcoin, in its short life, has had a truly amazing growth path - which causes these very extravagant predictions.  

I understand  and appreciate bitcoin fundamentals enough  to realize that any of the scenarios are possible - even 10x growth per year is possible.  

. . .

I can grasp that 10x is possible and plausible... but seems a bit too much for the infrastructure to absorb into such a short period of time - especially going from $50k to $500k - I have a very hard time envisioning that - however, I do recognize that if any medium size country picked up bitcoin as its national currency, then those scenarios are completely reasonable - and there are a variety of other adoption scenarios that could continue the 10x growth per year for several years into the future.... but somewhere between 2x and 5x growth seems much more within the grasp of the possible.

. . .

I am NOT sure whether this kind of a BTC appreciation model is sustainable, but it does seem possible at some point to enter into a period of an ongoing average appreciation of BTC value somewhere between 10-20% per year.

The price history of bitcoin shows 10x growth per year on average, which is supported by 3.2x average growth in both bitcoin addresses and adjusted number of bitcoin transactions - according to Metcalfe's Law. My own logistic model of bitcoin prices says that this growth rate will continue on average, actually very slightly diminishing, until we reach the midpoint of adoption. We could already be past that point but the preponderance of evidence in my opinion, is that the Bitcoin Economy is far from reaching that point.

After the mid point of adoption average price growth rates will rapidly diminish, reaching the levels you mention or lower.

Past performance does not guarantee future results but I like your bullish point of vue

The number of people knowing Bitcoin, liking Bitcoin, using Bitcoin is growing everyday, way more than the number of bitcoins; world wealth is increasing as well and the western financial system is going down within years

Well maybe for a few entitled kids who got everything from their parents it is. But for the majority of the world's population it isn't. The majority of the world population doesn't have a computer, even less people have internet, and most people don't have any money to buy bitcoins with, because they use all their money for food and still they starve.

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Arriemoller
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April 21, 2014, 02:43:55 AM
 #1184

Personally, I think that we have to walk before we run, and surely bitcoin, in its short life, has had a truly amazing growth path - which causes these very extravagant predictions.  

I understand  and appreciate bitcoin fundamentals enough  to realize that any of the scenarios are possible - even 10x growth per year is possible.  

. . .

I can grasp that 10x is possible and plausible... but seems a bit too much for the infrastructure to absorb into such a short period of time - especially going from $50k to $500k - I have a very hard time envisioning that - however, I do recognize that if any medium size country picked up bitcoin as its national currency, then those scenarios are completely reasonable - and there are a variety of other adoption scenarios that could continue the 10x growth per year for several years into the future.... but somewhere between 2x and 5x growth seems much more within the grasp of the possible.

. . .

I am NOT sure whether this kind of a BTC appreciation model is sustainable, but it does seem possible at some point to enter into a period of an ongoing average appreciation of BTC value somewhere between 10-20% per year.

The price history of bitcoin shows 10x growth per year on average, which is supported by 3.2x average growth in both bitcoin addresses and adjusted number of bitcoin transactions - according to Metcalfe's Law. My own logistic model of bitcoin prices says that this growth rate will continue on average, actually very slightly diminishing, until we reach the midpoint of adoption. We could already be past that point but the preponderance of evidence in my opinion, is that the Bitcoin Economy is far from reaching that point.

After the mid point of adoption average price growth rates will rapidly diminish, reaching the levels you mention or lower.

Past performance does not guarantee future results but I like your bullish point of vue

The number of people knowing Bitcoin, liking Bitcoin, using Bitcoin is growing everyday, way more than the number of bitcoins; world wealth is increasing as well and the western financial system is going down within years

Well maybe for a few entitled kids who got everything from their parents it is. But for the majority of the world's population it isn't. The majority of the world population doesn't have a computer, even less people have internet, and most people don't have any money to buy bitcoins with, because they use all their money for food and still they starve.

What's your point billysweird?

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April 21, 2014, 03:02:20 AM
 #1185

Well maybe for a few entitled kids who got everything from their parents it is. But for the majority of the world's population it isn't. The majority of the world population doesn't have a computer, even less people have internet, and most people don't have any money to buy bitcoins with, because they use all their money for food and still they starve.

A phrase made popular by the US president John F. Kennedy applies . . .

A rising tide lifts all boats.
TonyZX
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April 21, 2014, 03:06:28 AM
 #1186

and I am pretty confident we are the old dying elite, whose best times have passed

Bitcoin is our past, present and future!
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April 21, 2014, 03:09:23 AM
 #1187

and I am pretty confident we are the old dying elite, whose best times have passed

Patience.  The year is just getting started. Wink

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jonald_fyookball
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April 21, 2014, 03:18:24 AM
 #1188

and I am pretty confident we are the old dying elite, whose best times have passed

Patience.  The year is just getting started. Wink

Oh. Glad you understood that  I thought the poster was simply having a midlife crisis and worrying about age spots.  Tongue
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April 21, 2014, 03:28:09 AM
 #1189

Well maybe for a few entitled kids who got everything from their parents it is. But for the majority of the world's population it isn't. The majority of the world population doesn't have a computer, even less people have internet, and most people don't have any money to buy bitcoins with, because they use all their money for food and still they starve.

A phrase made popular by the US president John F. Kennedy applies . . .

A rising tide lifts all boats.

I dont think this concept addresses Billysweird's point exactly.

However, a point to address billysweird's point would be that bitcoin would provide a lot for poor people to the extent that they attempt to save anything or to the extent that they may rely upon fiat money systems that disproportionately steal their money.

Poor is relative, of course, and some people in the world are struggling more than other people; however, part of the reason that they are struggling as much as they are is b/c they are exploited in their various financial instruments and the depreciation of their money.  I am NOT sure about whether bitcoin is going to completely resolve these kinds of resource issues b/c the rich frequently find new ways to exploit the poor, but bitcoin has the potential to offer a variety of solutions as compared with fiat money systems.

boumalo
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April 21, 2014, 12:44:03 PM
 #1190

Well maybe for a few entitled kids who got everything from their parents it is. But for the majority of the world's population it isn't. The majority of the world population doesn't have a computer, even less people have internet, and most people don't have any money to buy bitcoins with, because they use all their money for food and still they starve.

A phrase made popular by the US president John F. Kennedy applies . . .

A rising tide lifts all boats.

I dont think this concept addresses Billysweird's point exactly.

However, a point to address billysweird's point would be that bitcoin would provide a lot for poor people to the extent that they attempt to save anything or to the extent that they may rely upon fiat money systems that disproportionately steal their money.

Poor is relative, of course, and some people in the world are struggling more than other people; however, part of the reason that they are struggling as much as they are is b/c they are exploited in their various financial instruments and the depreciation of their money.  I am NOT sure about whether bitcoin is going to completely resolve these kinds of resource issues b/c the rich frequently find new ways to exploit the poor, but bitcoin has the potential to offer a variety of solutions as compared with fiat money systems.

Poor countries can save in transfer fees with Bitcoin and get direct donations more easily

Having a constantly depreciated currency is very bad when you are poor because your salary doesn't go up as much as the currency goes down and it is hard to save

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April 21, 2014, 01:05:41 PM
 #1191

and I am pretty confident we are the old dying elite, whose best times have passed

We have survived our biggest challenge to this date (Mt Gox scandal), without much damage. The worst is over and gone, and the best is yet to come. I expect everyone to be optimistic.

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April 21, 2014, 01:10:09 PM
 #1192

Holding $500 like a rock. Gox people may soon get back some Bitcoin. Good times ahead. Hoping neo bee soon gets thrown in jail for life.

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ChuckBuck
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April 21, 2014, 01:11:34 PM
 #1193

and I am pretty confident we are the old dying elite, whose best times have passed

We have survived our biggest challenge to this date (Mt Gox scandal), without much damage. The worst is over and gone, and the best is yet to come. I expect everyone to be optimistic.

Definitely feeling optimistic, especially after the China PBOC scare that ultimately amounted to just rumor.

Now just need to keep the positive momentum going with more adoption with companies, positive news, and just spreading the news to the masses.

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April 21, 2014, 01:33:56 PM
 #1194

Now just need to keep the positive momentum going with more adoption with companies, positive news, and just spreading the news to the masses.

Adoption is increasing, albeit silently. Right now it is the small and medium scale merchants who are adopting BTC. Anyway let's concentrate on them rather than going after big names such as Amazon, Ebay and Facebook. We have already got at least one large-scale seller on our side (Overstock). And I am satisfied with it.  Grin

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April 21, 2014, 01:41:16 PM
 #1195

Now just need to keep the positive momentum going with more adoption with companies, positive news, and just spreading the news to the masses.

Adoption is increasing, albeit silently. Right now it is the small and medium scale merchants who are adopting BTC. Anyway let's concentrate on them rather than going after big names such as Amazon, Ebay and Facebook. We have already got at least one large-scale seller on our side (Overstock). And I am satisfied with it.  Grin

True, it seems that small businesses have the most to gain, as far as profit margin goes, from Bitcoin:

http://www.coindesk.com/small-businesses-enjoy-success-accepting-bitcoin/

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April 21, 2014, 01:42:28 PM
 #1196

I just spent $1k at tiger direct using Bitcoin

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April 21, 2014, 03:20:28 PM
 #1197

I just spent $1k at tiger direct using Bitcoin

Hooray.

It is hard to believe, but Peter_R and I calculated that according to his Metcalfe Law model of bitcoin prices, if we increase the permanent number of daily bitcoin transactions by one, then the bitcoin market cap increases by over $100K.

I try to participate in a bitcoin transaction every day.
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April 21, 2014, 04:23:07 PM
 #1198

I just spent $1k at tiger direct using Bitcoin

Hooray.

It is hard to believe, but Peter_R and I calculated that according to his Metcalfe Law model of bitcoin prices, if we increase the permanent number of daily bitcoin transactions by one, then the bitcoin market cap increases by over $100K.

I try to participate in a bitcoin transaction every day.

Wow.  That is really crazy.  In a way as a Bitcoin community we could increase the price just by using Bitcoin as much as possible then.  I have spent some but it is hard to justify spending them when cash seems so much less valuable.  But perhaps we should all just move more fiat into a place that can be used regularly for buying things we need anyways?  Just thinking here.

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April 21, 2014, 04:30:57 PM
 #1199

Now just need to keep the positive momentum going with more adoption with companies, positive news, and just spreading the news to the masses.

Adoption is increasing, albeit silently. Right now it is the small and medium scale merchants who are adopting BTC. Anyway let's concentrate on them rather than going after big names such as Amazon, Ebay and Facebook. We have already got at least one large-scale seller on our side (Overstock). And I am satisfied with it.  Grin
Very silently indeed. As time goes by the adoption will increase, despite the bad news that we had/will have.
People just aren't patient enough and tend to panic too easily.


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April 21, 2014, 04:31:01 PM
 #1200

It's easy when you spend horizontally

And why not get 3% at Amazon via gyft

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