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Author Topic: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.  (Read 507854 times)
SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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April 18, 2014, 10:15:36 PM
 #1141

But I like to joke that that I am way to cheap to ever spend money on alcohol.  I even have a hard time spending money on soft drinks when we go out to eat!

I am sure now that you would get along great with my wife. She likes the sort of place that lets you bring back the plastic cup from last time to use for ice tea.
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April 18, 2014, 10:32:23 PM
 #1142

But I like to joke that that I am way to cheap to ever spend money on alcohol.  I even have a hard time spending money on soft drinks when we go out to eat!

I am sure now that you would get along great with my wife. She likes the sort of place that lets you bring back the plastic cup from last time to use for ice tea.

Wow!  Free drinks when you bring back a cup?  I don't have any restaurant around here that does that!  There is one place that let's us bring a cup back but we still have to pay 99 cents for a refill. 

I have to thank my husband for trying to teach me that there are times in life to just enjoy ourselves.  He forces me to splurge on some things.  Because of him we have had some very nice dinners out as well as some fantastic vacations.  What I usually try to do is figure out what he is planning on doing anyway and then save as much money as I can on those things!   I even found a company where I could mystery shop at fine dining restaurants.  I was reimbursed up to $200 per meal.  This way we could eat at a really nice place but I would have to pay for it.  The funny thing is that they would required me to order a glass of wine.  I hated doing it though, even if they were paying me back. $10 for one glass is hard for me to justify. Smiley  I still do a few of these "jobs" from time to time.  One of the companies stopped giving assignments though.  Sad  Oh well. 

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Stephen Reed


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April 18, 2014, 10:35:46 PM
 #1143

So you're predicting $100k at the start of 2016?  That's a bold prediction...!

Oh it gets better. The sound math of the logistic model rests on a foundation of assumptions the validity of which we can only guess at.

Here are the notable assumptions of the model to ponder . . .

  • Whether Bitcoin succeeds or fails is a binary decision. It either completely takes over the existing fiat system and therefore becomes extremely valuable, or it utterly fails to do so and its value becomes zero. This opinion is widely held and makes sense - winner takes all, so to speak
  • The behavior of those who learned about Bitcoin already and adopted it, indicates the likely behavior of those who have not yet learned about Bitcoin and may adopt it. Works so far.
  • Despite the presence of serial price bubbles, the average price trend can be modeled as a logistic adoption of technology. Never been tried before. Academic financial literature makes no connection between technology adoption and a price series.
  • The maximum price at full adoption is one million USD. This is the weakest assumption of the model. We could possibly be past the halfway point of adoption now - but I think that is unlikely. Indeed, I can make a weird argument based on the quantity of transactions and Metcalfe's Law that the maximum price could be way, way higher - which the average price of bitcoin would reach by continuing to increase 10x per year until say 2020 should that be the halfway point of adoption. Very hard to believe but the math says so.
  • The logistic model has two other parameters that I fit by hand to make the average trend line fit the price series. This is a weak assumption because there is no math to support it. It very well could be the case that the data series is not long enough to see the true trend. Had I constructed this model in 2011 that is the mistake that I would have made. Only time will tell - perhaps another year to gain more confidence in the hand-fit model parameters.
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Stephen Reed


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April 19, 2014, 05:49:05 AM
 #1144


There is one place that let's us bring a cup back but we still have to pay 99 cents for a refill.

That is what I meant. My wife is so frugal that she hates to see those plastic cups thrown in the trash, which is an obvious waste because Austin does not make commercial recycling as easy as they do for households.

I could go on and on ...

There is long term drought in Central Texas, so I take a shower with a pail between my legs to catch water that she puts on our plants. She saves, washes and reuses those plastic forks and plates routinely thrown away where still works. And she does not really need to work anymore - but does not want to waste her time.

Yep, on and on. I love her.

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He forces me to splurge on some things.

That behavior will come in handy in a few years I think.
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A Great Time to Start Something!


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April 19, 2014, 06:06:13 AM
 #1145

I was more confident when BTC was over $500; It was nice to see a strong rally for a couple days.
For people who cannot afford to buy more BTC, this is a great time to earn some BTC, since they will probably be worth more in the future.

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April 19, 2014, 06:24:18 AM
 #1146

I believe this is true, it's not going to happen overnight, but it will happen.
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The Emperor


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April 19, 2014, 08:21:52 AM
 #1147

I was more confident when BTC was over $500; It was nice to see a strong rally for a couple days.
For people who cannot afford to buy more BTC, this is a great time to earn some BTC, since they will probably be worth more in the future.

Many among the general public think that Bitcoins are way too expensive, at $480 per coin. They don't readily understand the concept of mBTC and uBTC. That is why most of them collects altcoins instead of Bitcoin. Sad to see this.... they might lose all their investment, as most of the altcoins die out within 2-3 months from their launch.

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April 19, 2014, 10:59:01 AM
 #1148

I was more confident when BTC was over $500; It was nice to see a strong rally for a couple days.
For people who cannot afford to buy more BTC, this is a great time to earn some BTC, since they will probably be worth more in the future.

Many among the general public think that Bitcoins are way too expensive, at $480 per coin. They don't readily understand the concept of mBTC and uBTC. That is why most of them collects altcoins instead of Bitcoin. Sad to see this.... they might lose all their investment, as most of the altcoins die out within 2-3 months from their launch.
Exactly, unlike fiat currency Bitcoin's lowest possible unit is 0.00000001

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The Emperor


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April 19, 2014, 11:07:47 AM
 #1149

Exactly, unlike fiat currency Bitcoin's lowest possible unit is 0.00000001

It is. But (most of the) common people don't understand that concept. They think that Bitcoin can be only bought in full numbers. They don't believe that it can be bought in fractions.

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April 19, 2014, 11:17:26 AM
 #1150

Exactly, unlike fiat currency Bitcoin's lowest possible unit is 0.00000001

It is. But (most of the) common people don't understand that concept. They think that Bitcoin can be only bought in full numbers. They don't believe that it can be bought in fractions.

This kind of marketing question cuts both ways.  B/c bitcoin could be marketed in microbits or satoshi's or whatever other increment(s) but then people may NOT appreciate that, either and think that it is too cheap (and NOT worth anything).  

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April 19, 2014, 11:31:01 AM
 #1151

I think people will not only buy but overpay

http://pages.ebay.com/link/?nav=item.view&id=221025080235

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April 19, 2014, 11:39:37 AM
 #1152

I think people will not only buy but overpay

http://pages.ebay.com/link/?nav=item.view&id=221025080235

1 grain? the USA keeps inventing weird units of measurement.

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April 19, 2014, 11:54:08 AM
 #1153

I think people will not only buy but overpay

http://pages.ebay.com/link/?nav=item.view&id=221025080235

1 grain? the USA keeps inventing weird units of measurement.

They're paying over $4800 an ounce

Grain

A grain is a measurement unit of mass which is a traditional unit and based on the weight of a grain of wheat. The grain is the smallest unit of weight in the troy, avoirdupois, and apothecaries systems. 1 grain = 0.0648 grams, or = 0.0020833 troy ounces.

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April 19, 2014, 12:50:32 PM
 #1154

I think people will not only buy but overpay

http://pages.ebay.com/link/?nav=item.view&id=221025080235

Not only for gold, but for Bitcoin also. I know some of my friends who bought Bitcoins from localbitcoins.com for a 25% premium. In my country, it is really difficult to purchase coins through Bitstamp or BTC-E. Quite difficult to deposit cash. So everyone have to depend on localbitcoins, despite the steep commissions which they charge.  Angry

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April 19, 2014, 01:41:31 PM
 #1155

I think people will not only buy but overpay

http://pages.ebay.com/link/?nav=item.view&id=221025080235

Not only for gold, but for Bitcoin also. I know some of my friends who bought Bitcoins from localbitcoins.com for a 25% premium. In my country, it is really difficult to purchase coins through Bitstamp or BTC-E. Quite difficult to deposit cash. So everyone have to depend on localbitcoins, despite the steep commissions which they charge.  Angry

Yes so I think Bitcoin is going to be alright.

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April 19, 2014, 03:37:29 PM
 #1156

I think people will not only buy but overpay

http://pages.ebay.com/link/?nav=item.view&id=221025080235

Not only for gold, but for Bitcoin also. I know some of my friends who bought Bitcoins from localbitcoins.com for a 25% premium. In my country, it is really difficult to purchase coins through Bitstamp or BTC-E. Quite difficult to deposit cash. So everyone have to depend on localbitcoins, despite the steep commissions which they charge.  Angry

Are you in Venezuela?

It can be interesting to go there to sell some bitcoins and get a free trip

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The Emperor


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April 19, 2014, 03:41:38 PM
 #1157

Are you in Venezuela?

It can be interesting to go there to sell some bitcoins and get a free trip

Nope... I am residing in South Asia. It is really difficult to get any fiat deposits in to BTC-E or Bitstamp. People living in the US or the EU have a lot of options. But here we don't have that many. Withdrawal is not a problem, especially after BTC-E added the withdrawal to the Credit Card option. We desperately need some Bitcoin ATMs here.

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April 19, 2014, 03:42:49 PM
 #1158

I was very lucky to purchase some bitcoins today. I think you are spot on. If less than 50 million will be made, the value per bit coin will be ridiculous in the coming months...

Less than 21 million, actually.

Lol,
Who cares for bitcoin and volume ?

Славься, Отечество наше свободное,
Братских народов союз вековой,
Предками данная мудрость народная!
Славься, страна! Мы гордимся тобой!
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April 19, 2014, 09:01:49 PM
 #1159

Are you in Venezuela?

It can be interesting to go there to sell some bitcoins and get a free trip

Nope... I am residing in South Asia. It is really difficult to get any fiat deposits in to BTC-E or Bitstamp. People living in the US or the EU have a lot of options. But here we don't have that many. Withdrawal is not a problem, especially after BTC-E added the withdrawal to the Credit Card option. We desperately need some Bitcoin ATMs here.


Ok

The potential of growth is huge because the infrastructure is just getting in place and when it will be in place it will have to mature

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April 20, 2014, 10:45:38 AM
 #1160

Read through the whole thread, fascinating read.

I just wanted to make an entry in this historic thread for posterity, from someone who got into Bitcoin in November 2013 and is currently looking forward an immense amount to the next 5 years.

Hello 2019 and beyond!  Smiley Smiley  Bitcoin is currently $509 each, and I am continuing to accumulate more.

I will by now be a part of the wealthy elite, and just graduating university.  Life's good as an early adopter.
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