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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 504331 times)
pent
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September 25, 2011, 06:37:52 PM
 #1221

Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.

Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.
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BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 12:47:49 AM
 #1222

Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.

Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.

Assertions lacking evidence!

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed
zby
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September 26, 2011, 05:10:23 AM
 #1223

Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.

Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.

Assertions lacking evidence!

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed

That number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all.
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September 26, 2011, 05:15:16 AM
 #1224

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed

I'm not convinced 'days destroyed' paints a positive picture. The biggest peak since June was late August about the time of a 30% sell off on the markets. Perhaps dormant coins had been awoken from hibernation only to be dumped on an exchange. This week's 'days destroyed' look a bit like April.

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BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 05:49:20 AM
 #1225

That number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all.

How do you figure that?

 
Perhaps dormant coins had been awoken from hibernation only to be dumped on an exchange. This week's 'days destroyed' look a bit like April.

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.
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September 26, 2011, 06:51:56 AM
 #1226

BiterTea, it happens to be a hypothesis backed by data. Transaction volume is low since June.

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September 26, 2011, 06:56:50 AM
 #1227

So... Since you are using the poll results as a contrary indicator, should I vote down if I think the price goes up? But if I think it goes up, it will probably go down so if I vote down it will go down, but then again it should go up.... Huh

I gotta go to sleep.
pent
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September 26, 2011, 08:30:18 AM
 #1228

Assertions lacking evidence!

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed
Sorry, have no time for evidence, its my own feeling, as I browse blockexplorer and mtgox every day. July and August were reacher for avg transactions amount per day. Also MtGox trades are also significantly depressed comparing to summer time and going slower and slower.

I think "Trough of Disillusionment" phase of bitcoin HIPE Cycle is not reached yet. I thought it will be in 6-9 area, but now i see the bottom is ahead.

Only my IMHO based on being part of market.

This not makes me happy as i have some investments.

Bitcoin needs some buisnesses, restricted by VISA, to be involved. For example if major gambling network owners decide to attach bitcoin as secondary or tertiary billing option, this will bring turnover to bitcoin market and its rate will significantly increase.
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September 26, 2011, 11:28:41 AM
 #1229

Assertions lacking evidence!

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed
Sorry, have no time for evidence, its my own feeling, as I browse blockexplorer and mtgox every day. July and August were reacher for avg transactions amount per day. Also MtGox trades are also significantly depressed comparing to summer time and going slower and slower.

I think "Trough of Disillusionment" phase of bitcoin HIPE Cycle is not reached yet. I thought it will be in 6-9 area, but now i see the bottom is ahead.

Only my IMHO based on being part of market.

This not makes me happy as i have some investments.

Bitcoin needs some buisnesses, restricted by VISA, to be involved. For example if major gambling network owners decide to attach bitcoin as secondary or tertiary billing option, this will bring turnover to bitcoin market and its rate will significantly increase.

Ah. I forgot that the purpose of Bitcoin is for its value in dollars to rise in order to make you money.
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September 26, 2011, 03:16:52 PM
 #1230

Ah. I forgot that the purpose of Bitcoin is for its value in dollars to rise in order to make you money.
so what?
fivebells
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September 26, 2011, 04:28:42 PM
 #1231

So what's it good for/why will demand for BTC increase in the future?
BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 05:19:34 PM
 #1232

So what's it good for/why will demand for BTC increase in the future?

Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour.
pent
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September 26, 2011, 05:22:06 PM
 #1233

Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour.
I can do the same with Webmoney or Paxum. And I dont care about 0.8% commission. So what?
BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 06:10:12 PM
 #1234

Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour.
I can do the same with Webmoney or Paxum. And I dont care about 0.8% commission. So what?
If you're not worried about centralized services failing, or central banks inflating away the value of the underlying money, then right now Bitcoin may not have any huge benefits for you. In the future though, additional transaction types could provide interesting use cases.

But this is really off topic...
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September 26, 2011, 11:19:37 PM
 #1235

So what's it good for/why will demand for BTC increase in the future?

Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour.

Sending money 'without knowing any personal details about them' isn't exactly a big plus for me..
*receiving* money without knowing any personal details about them could be handy sometimes though.

@electricwings   BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
fivebells
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September 27, 2011, 12:33:13 AM
 #1236

This is extremely interesting.  What is missing from the bitcoin protocol that prevents implementing it as described?
BitterTea
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September 27, 2011, 02:23:17 AM
 #1237

This is extremely interesting.  What is missing from the bitcoin protocol that prevents implementing it as described?

I think it's that the script operations other than those necessary for regular transactions are disabled in the client for security reasons.
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September 27, 2011, 02:33:22 AM
 #1238

I think it's that the script operations other than those necessary for regular transactions are disabled in the client for security reasons.
Thanks.  This is very exciting.
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September 27, 2011, 03:08:16 AM
 #1239

I just found an excellent analogy for the bitcoin price.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum
It seems to be stable for a while, and then it suddenly does this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum#Vacuum_metastability_event
Boom, headshot.

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September 29, 2011, 05:53:33 AM
 #1240

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Public Update released: http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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