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Author Topic: [1200 TH] EMC: 0 Fee DGM. Anonymous PPS. US & EU servers. No Registration!  (Read 461459 times)
Math Man
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March 14, 2012, 09:53:19 PM
 #2081


I agree with kano. The Gambler's Fallacy isn't restricted to just discrete cases. It's exactly what you described - the belief that recent bad luck increases the chances of good luck. For independent events (such as finding blocks) this is false. The LLN doesn't work by anticorrelating proximate events, and the fallacious belief that it does is, once again, the gambler's fallacy.

Meni,

I know exactly what you are getting at, and that is not what I intended with my original statement.  I should have been more explicit what I was referring to.  You're and kano are reading into what I said in one way, I meant it another.  

As our average shares per block is significantly higher than the expected value, over the next X blocks, where X is arbitrarily "large", our average shares will tend toward the median.  The only way for that to happen is to have rounds whose total shares are near or below the median.  That's why now is a good time to mine here for the next X blocks.

I wasn't talking about this block, or the next, or the one after, etc. in my original statement.  I talking about the next X blocks, even though I wasn't explicit in saying that.

Now, seriously.  I'm done.  I need to study.
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cuz0882
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March 14, 2012, 10:24:28 PM
 #2082

I guess are bad luck was not as bad as it seemed. Looks like the same issue as before.
Inaba
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March 14, 2012, 10:43:45 PM
 #2083

Yeah, there were a couple stuck blocks, and there is still a stuck NMC block I'm trying to figure out.  Something isn't quite right with NMC, and I can't figure out if it's the blockchain or the wallet - likely the later. 

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
GenTarkin
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March 15, 2012, 02:18:57 AM
 #2084

I Was about to say, this is some of the hugest variance Ive ever seen on a pool =P 3 blocks back to back...man rofl!

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stoppots
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March 15, 2012, 02:46:01 AM
 #2085

Man nice run of blocks
Math Man
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March 15, 2012, 03:58:46 AM
 #2086

Man nice run of blocks
I know, right!?  99.95%, 99.99%, 98.24%, all in a row.  Keep 'em coming!
cuz0882
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March 15, 2012, 05:06:13 AM
 #2087

Man nice run of blocks
I know, right!?  99.95%, 99.99%, 98.24%, all in a row.  Keep 'em coming!
Let's not, the share ratio is way off. Although I did get 10% of the shares on 1 block. Hard to see the effect on payouts with dgm. It's pretty clear on the namecoin blocks though.
Meni Rosenfeld
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March 15, 2012, 07:29:43 AM
 #2088


I agree with kano. The Gambler's Fallacy isn't restricted to just discrete cases. It's exactly what you described - the belief that recent bad luck increases the chances of good luck. For independent events (such as finding blocks) this is false. The LLN doesn't work by anticorrelating proximate events, and the fallacious belief that it does is, once again, the gambler's fallacy.

Meni,

I know exactly what you are getting at, and that is not what I intended with my original statement.  I should have been more explicit what I was referring to.  You're and kano are reading into what I said in one way, I meant it another.  

As our average shares per block is significantly higher than the expected value, over the next X blocks, where X is arbitrarily "large", our average shares will tend toward the median.  The only way for that to happen is to have rounds whose total shares are near or below the median.  That's why now is a good time to mine here for the next X blocks.

I wasn't talking about this block, or the next, or the one after, etc. in my original statement.  I talking about the next X blocks, even though I wasn't explicit in saying that.

Now, seriously.  I'm done.  I need to study.
I'm sorry, but this is still wrong.

Yes, there will be rounds whose total shares are below the median. No, the frequency of such rounds over the next X blocks is not affected whatsoever by the fact that we've had recently some rounds with total shares above the median. No, now is not a better time to mine here than any other.

It is instructive to understand that while (number of occurences / number of attempts) approaches the probability of occurrence for n->Infinity, (number of occurences - expected number of occurrences) does not approach 0, rather it increases in absolute variance for larger n.

You don't need to discuss this further if you don't want. Either you take my word for it or, when you have the time, read up on the matter, gain some experience, run simulations etc.


Man nice run of blocks
I know, right!?  99.95%, 99.99%, 98.24%, all in a row.  Keep 'em coming!
Let's not, the share ratio is way off. Although I did get 10% of the shares on 1 block. Hard to see the effect on payouts with dgm. It's pretty clear on the namecoin blocks though.
Forget the share ratio. For every block found you get rewarded for shares you submitted in the past. In other words, more blocks per time unit = more money.

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March 15, 2012, 09:47:24 AM
 #2089

A pic is in order Grin


"Simulation of coin tosses: Each frame, a coin is flipped which is red on one side and blue on the other. The result of each flip is added as a colored dot in the corresponding column. As the pie chart shows, the proportion of red versus blue approaches 50-50 (the Law of Large Numbers). But the difference between red and blue does not systematically decrease to zero." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamblers_fallacy)
kano
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March 15, 2012, 10:20:12 AM
 #2090

Not necessary - and also somewhat pointless quoting content from the Wikipedia.
Wikipedia is only as accurate as whoever happened to write the content or last edit it ...
My reference was only for the sake of naming the fallacy Smiley
(though your quote is valid, it's a bad idea to quote something from the wikipedia)

Assuming Math Man is doing actuarial studies, he should know a lot more about statistics than the contents of that page and leave it to him to argue with Meni who also clearly knows a lot of statistics theory if you have read any of the bitcoin statistical analysis he has done.

I'm not very good at stats, but this discussion falls under the heading of something that I understand which was the reason for my very first comment Smiley
(blame those damn nonce ranges for that Tongue)

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March 15, 2012, 11:15:45 AM
 #2091

But... but... that Wikipedia example was soooooooo staring at me! Grin
I'd be toast if I quoted from Wikipedia for a research paper. As in "really burnt" toast. Tongue

I'm also no expert at probabilities, but I did have to chew a good dosage of stochastic processes while finishing college (EE) Smiley

I'm not very good at stats, but this discussion falls under the heading of something that I understand which was the reason for my very first comment Smiley

And you were right on the money! Grin
Inaba
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March 15, 2012, 12:31:34 PM
 #2092

Something is dreadfully wrong with Namecoin.  I am going to be swapping out the wallet and blockchain today and see if that resolves the issue.  If it does not, then the namecoin block chain itself is broken, which seems unlikely.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
Kluge
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March 15, 2012, 03:59:55 PM
 #2093

Something is dreadfully wrong with Namecoin.  I am going to be swapping out the wallet and blockchain today and see if that resolves the issue.  If it does not, then the namecoin block chain itself is broken, which seems unlikely.

Can't wait to receive my negative NMC bonus.  Lips sealed


Don't mix your coins someone said isn't legal
Inaba
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March 15, 2012, 04:38:24 PM
 #2094

ARG WTH!

I will get that fixed sorry about that. 

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
P_Shep
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March 15, 2012, 08:11:30 PM
 #2095

16+ hour blocks sucks balls.


That is all.
Kluge
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March 16, 2012, 12:18:03 AM
 #2096

ARG WTH!

I will get that fixed sorry about that. 
Thanks. Confirming it's fixed.  Smiley

Don't mix your coins someone said isn't legal
GenTarkin
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March 16, 2012, 02:57:12 PM
 #2097

17hr BTC block? is it legit or is it stuck again?!

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stevegee58
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March 16, 2012, 03:11:07 PM
 #2098

Blocks this long aren't that uncommon.  They've been 24+ hours before.

You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
Inaba
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March 16, 2012, 03:12:32 PM
 #2099

We are actually running fairly close to median for this difficulty level.

If you're searching these lines for a point, you've probably missed it.  There was never anything there in the first place.
stevegee58
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March 16, 2012, 03:15:09 PM
 #2100

Is it possible to see the full block history?  It looks like you can only go back 50 blocks.

You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
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