Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[Biodom]

I can certainly confirm they run well in "Hot" weather.  
All my KNC machines actually ran best when the asic temps were 75-80C
I'm in Hawaii, and I still had to remove the case fans to get them that hot.
But Neptunes could bring entirely new characteristics as it's an entirely new ASIC...

Hey, I am curious about your bullishness on Neptune. With btc being where it is today, one can get at least 23 btc per Neptune if cancelled. I still did not pull the trigger, but it is getting close. What is your rationale? I don't see anybody paying huge premium for the machine at these btc values or machine mining more than 15-18 btc optimistically if hashing starts on May1.

[Phoenix1969]

I can certainly confirm they run well in "Hot" weather.  
All my KNC machines actually ran best when the asic temps were 75-80C
I'm in Hawaii, and I still had to remove the case fans to get them that hot.
But Neptunes could bring entirely new characteristics as it's an entirely new ASIC...

Hey, I am curious about your bullishness on Neptune. With btc being where it is today, one can get at least 23 btc per Neptune if cancelled. I still did not pull the trigger, but it is getting close. What is your rationale? I don't see anybody paying huge premium for the machine at these btc values or machine mining more than 15-18 btc optimistically if hashing starts on May1.

Sure.... well, firstly, I have a 10k neptune, not a 13k neptune...(CA Batch) so, your numbers are a tad off, but I'll show you easily what my rationale is with one simple chart. Look at the last two charts on this page: (they are same chart really)  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ I'm lookin' at a steep decline in difficulty growth. Looks to me like a few mining calcs are waaaay off. Most of the competitor Asic companies "Just shot their wad" too. After Neptune ships, we will never see another 10% diffchange; which puts the next max monthly increase under 30% maybe closer to 20%. (and I only mean 1 or 2 months)and it will dwindle further from there. I also consider these numbers "Conservative"           Now, consider 4Th/s, or even 4.5Th/s
when using Genesis Block, remember it is averaging the %monthly increase over an entire year...  Now think over the next 12 months, what do you really think the average monthly increase will be?   (closer to 6.7 than 67 for sure, lol)  Plug that in.  OMG, lookin good.
This is the Pre-Jupiter scenario on steroids brah; and this time around, the diff change increases are dwindling, not increasing.
My numbers, even at 3000 watts, paying .43/KWhr look really, really good.

*We went from 40% diffchanges in November at it's peak, and now, only 4 months later, we are having 11% changes.
How about 4 months from now, 4 months from then, and 4 more....   hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Also.... If KNC ends up pulling another hashpower doubling after delivery and a few firmware tweaks like last time?.....  
(and I'm not counting on that, but it's not out of the realm of possibility)
    

[Syke]

Hey, I am curious about your bullishness on Neptune. With btc being where it is today, one can get at least 23 btc per Neptune if cancelled. I still did not pull the trigger, but it is getting close. What is your rationale? I don't see anybody paying huge premium for the machine at these btc values or machine mining more than 15-18 btc optimistically if hashing starts on May1.

Forget about breaking even. That would have only happened had KnC shipped in Q1. Well, that's not going to happen, so it's over for Neptunes. By the time Neptunes ship, difficulty will be 10B+, at which point a Neptune will generate less than .15 btc per day. That puts RoI at over 3 months without even considering any difficulty increases! Believe me, there's lots of difficulty increases still to come. Bitmain knows how to scale production. They're going to flood the market with 1 TH/s machines before Neptunes even start shipping.

[Biodom]

Sure.... well, firstly, I have a 10k neptune, not a 13k neptune...(CA Batch) so, your numbers are a tad off, but I'll show you easily what my rationale is with one simple chart. Look at the last two charts on this page: (they are same chart really)  http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ I'm lookin' at a steep decline in difficulty growth. Looks to me like a few mining calcs are waaaay off. Most of the competitor Asic companies "Just shot their wad" too. After Neptune ships, we will never see another 10% diffchange; which puts the next max monthly increase under 30% maybe closer to 20%. (and I only mean 1 or 2 months)and it will dwindle further from there. I also consider these numbers "Conservative"           Now, consider 4Th/s, or even 4.5Th/s
when using Genesis Block, remember it is averaging the %monthly increase over an entire year...  Now think over the next 12 months, what do you really think the average monthly increase will be?   (closer to 6.7 than 67 for sure, lol)  Plug that in.  OMG, lookin good.
This is the Pre-Jupiter scenario on steroids brah; and this time around, the diff change increases are dwindling, not increasing.
My numbers, even at 3000 watts, paying .43/KWhr look really, really good.

*We went from 40% diffchanges in November at it's peak, and now, only 4 months later, we are having 11% changes.
How about 4 months from now, 4 months from then, and 4 more....   hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Also.... If KNC ends up pulling another hashpower doubling after delivery and a few firmware tweaks like last time?.....  
(and I'm not counting on that, but it's not out of the realm of possibility)
    

interesting...BTW, I used May 1 as start and 50%/mo rise in my calculation (~14%/cycle), which is less than genesis block, but more than your numbers. In addition, Bitmain has targeted KnC theoretical hashrate (3Th) in $$, but they already sold out of two batches on April 1 and 10. KnC , of course, has much higher efficiency, but unknown final hash rate and dates. As such, it is still possible that they could be superior IF delivery can be assured by mid April. I am not sure, however, how modular Neptunes will be as far as power supplies requirements-knowing knc engineers arrogance, they could ask us to provide PSUs that are simply not available. In any case, I am on the edge as far as refunds are concerned. Honestly, Bitmain S2 does not look much of a bargain right now, especially with low BTC, but if they drop the price to $3K and below-it might become very competitive fast.

[Phoenix1969]

Hey, I am curious about your bullishness on Neptune. With btc being where it is today, one can get at least 23 btc per Neptune if cancelled. I still did not pull the trigger, but it is getting close. What is your rationale? I don't see anybody paying huge premium for the machine at these btc values or machine mining more than 15-18 btc optimistically if hashing starts on May1.

Forget about breaking even. That would have only happened had KnC shipped in Q1. Well, that's not going to happen, so it's over for Neptunes. By the time Neptunes ship, difficulty will be 10B+, at which point a Neptune will generate less than .15 btc per day. That puts RoI at over 3 months without even considering any difficulty increases! Believe me, there's lots of difficulty increases still to come. Bitmain knows how to scale production. They're going to flood the market with 1 TH/s machines before Neptunes even start shipping.

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network, and underestimating the Neptune, and KNC's ability to deliver. One thing for sure, the boards you are getting from bitmain are not ever going to grind out much more horsepower than you get right out of the box, after applying available tweaks... etc. Neptune...we have the possibility of much more than 3TH/s much more.
If we end up with 4 to 5 Th/s in Mid to late April....     could happen, and actually highly likely IMHO.

[Syke]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

[xstr8guy]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

He's lost touch with reality.  That's what happens when you start to believe your own shillin'.   

[opentoe]

All of the first KNC hardware came out in October if you remember. Beginning of winter and cool months. They have never been through a summer yet. Hazy, hot, humid 95 degree temperatures. That's what everyone has to look forward to. If I had the opportunity to get a Neptune or opt for cloud, I would definitely take the cloud. I could never keep a Neptune powered up all the time and keep it cool. Not in the summer.

don't forget these were shipped all over the world and here in Australia (Melbourne) we've been through one of the hottest summers on record.  10 days or more between 40 and 44 degrees celsius and more days over 35 degrees celsius.  I have 3 october jupiters and they all ran without a problem, without extra cooling or air-conditioning.  but I did move them out of the house into the garage.

Damn, that's right. My closed mind was thinking US only. What sucks is today was about 65 degrees out and my October rig temps went up 5 degrees just because of that. It's gonna suck trying to keep this thing cool. Without a miner my average electric bill in the summer months is about $400. I live in NJ. I do like it cool, cooler then most can take it. If I could keep my ambient temps in the house at 65 all the time I would.

How the hell did you guys keep your miners cool with such high temps? Just put it in front of the AC vents or something?

[Phoenix1969]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?
I see absolutely no relevance between Bitmain's current total network share, and future diffchanges.
I have nothing against Bitmain, just sayin... enjoy them while you can, because when Neptune ships, your returns will be squat, whilst Neptunes will have the horsepower to return for much much longer profitably. Remember what happened to Avalon's and BFL's when Jupiter came to town?
This is a similar comparison. Yeah, there's gonna be one or two nice big diffchanges when Neptune delivers, but after that....  Who has the capacity effect the diff over even 5% in a single diff after Neptune comes to town?.....   NOBODY.
No single batch delivery from a single vendor will ever touch 5% of the network again after Neptune. Take that to the bank.

[Syke]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

[Phoenix1969]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

"Can" is key, but 200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.
1200 times 3 or 4 Th/s in 6 days......  (up to 4.8 petahashes) how is bitmain supposed to touch that?  Can bitmain ship 4-5 petahashes per 6 days.... I think not. They can "ramp up" all they want, it won't change things much, especially after Neptune.

[RenHoek]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.

hmmm, i think u have overlooked the coming new Boss in town:

spongebob-tech:

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/

[Phoenix1969]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.

hmmm, i think u have overlooked the comming new Boss in town:

spongebob-tech:

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/

I'm ignoring them for good reason: They have not been vetted.

[Searing]

Hey, I am curious about your bullishness on Neptune. With btc being where it is today, one can get at least 23 btc per Neptune if cancelled. I still did not pull the trigger, but it is getting close. What is your rationale? I don't see anybody paying huge premium for the machine at these btc values or machine mining more than 15-18 btc optimistically if hashing starts on May1.

Forget about breaking even. That would have only happened had KnC shipped in Q1. Well, that's not going to happen, so it's over for Neptunes. By the time Neptunes ship, difficulty will be 10B+, at which point a Neptune will generate less than .15 btc per day. That puts RoI at over 3 months without even considering any difficulty increases! Believe me, there's lots of difficulty increases still to come. Bitmain knows how to scale production. They're going to flood the market with 1 TH/s machines before Neptunes even start shipping.

you could well be correct i have a 1st batch Neptune also (10k version) but that is why i have the 'out button" ie refund option..(which is likely why the Titan or any other kNC machine will not have such refund option in the future..duh people like me must drive KNC crazy..over order then punt)

i'll keep watching and punt if i need to ...so no risk to wait for a bit...and see if they get their act together)

but yeah it is more likely you are correct then me....the way the past has gone..but just so you see the options of us waiting ie logic such as it is

with the refund no down side yet

(heck i'd just blow the refund on wine/women and song.yeah right if that was the case i would not be on here anyway)

Searing

[RenHoek]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.

hmmm, i think u have overlooked the comming new Boss in town:

spongebob-tech:

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/

I'm ignoring them for good reason: They have not been vetted.

false. they had delivered allready the first devices. take a look in doogis thread. they are real and very strong!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=525469.0

[RoadStress]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.

hmmm, i think u have overlooked the comming new Boss in town:

spongebob-tech:

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/

I'm ignoring them for good reason: They have not been vetted.

dogie already has a nice review on them and more will come.

[Syke]

"Can" is key, but 200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.
1200 times 3 or 4 Th/s in 6 days......  (up to 4.8 petahashes) how is bitmain supposed to touch that?  Can bitmain ship 4-5 petahashes per 6 days.... I think not. They can "ramp up" all they want, it won't change things much, especially after Neptune.

Ok, if you're right about KnC's capacity to deliver, then you're just proving my initial point. Neptune won't break even. There's just too much hashpower coming online in the next few months.

[Searing]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.

hmmm, i think u have overlooked the comming new Boss in town:

spongebob-tech:

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/

I'm ignoring them for good reason: They have not been vetted.

dogie already has a nice review on them and more will come.

link please....

and BFL has had NICE REVIEWS and products sent to such reviewers up to  a year previous to shipping so...shudder......just a thought

Searing

[RenHoek]

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?

It goes to show how fast Bitmain can ramp up production. KnC was never able to pump out the vast quantity of units that Bitmain does.

200 units a day like Knc did with Jupiter means a batch of 1200 complete in 6 days, so I beg to differ.

hmmm, i think u have overlooked the comming new Boss in town:

spongebob-tech:

http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/

I'm ignoring them for good reason: They have not been vetted.

false. they had delivered allready the first devices. take a look in doogis thread. they are real and very strong!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=525469.0

thats spogegebob-mossad-tech! far advanced over knc!

[Biodom]

which may make up a whole 5 to 10% of the next couple diffchanges, I see no real threat there. I really think you're over-estimating Bitmain's impact to the network

Sounds like you haven't kept up. In a few short months, Bitmain is powering 20%+ of the entire network!

Can you explain how that statement equates into larger diffchanges over the next couple months?
I see absolutely no relevance between Bitmain's current total network share, and future diffchanges.
I have nothing against Bitmain, just sayin... enjoy them while you can, because when Neptune ships, your returns will be squat, whilst Neptunes will have the horsepower to return for much much longer profitably. Remember what happened to Avalon's and BFL's when Jupiter came to town?
This is a similar comparison. Yeah, there's gonna be one or two nice big diffchanges when Neptune delivers, but after that....  Who has the capacity effect the diff over even 5% in a single diff after Neptune comes to town?.....   NOBODY.
No single batch delivery from a single vendor will ever touch 5% of the network again after Neptune. Take that to the bank.

I tend to agree with general direction of your argument and was checking that awesome image quite frequently myself. The trend of diff rises has to change, but the the question is-when? If it bends down to lower than 30% a mo after October, it might or might not be too late to get ROI on Neptune, hence the dilemma. I got some ants because of a want to do some mining right now. Ant is, of course, nothing like Neptune, but it is pretty important for network diversity, in my opinion. You can be a geek with an ant or a few of them, but Neptune is another species altogether.