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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25466468 times)
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Toxic2040
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January 23, 2018, 05:50:00 PM

Nanos gigantum humeris insidentes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/one-person-caused-bitcoin-to-spike-from-150-to-1000-in-2013.html


Quote

In 2013, bitcoin was worth just $150 when suddenly, the price spiked.

Within two months, one bitcoin was worth $1,000. Four researchers from the Tandy School of Computer Science at The University of Tulsa and the Berglas School of Economics at Tel Aviv University now believe that this spike was caused by one individual person.

In a paper titled "Price Manipulation in the Bitcoin Ecosystem," published in the Journal of Monetary Economics, Neil Gandal, JT Hamrick, Tyler Moore and Tali Oberman describe the ways in which suspicious activity on the Mt. Gox bitcoin currency exchange impacted the value of the cryptocurrency in 2013.

As reported by TechCrunch, their research calls attention to the potential risk of price manipulation and fraud withing cryptocurrencies. "If bitcoin wants to be taken seriously it probably shouldn't be this easy or legal to manipulate the markets," writes John Biggs for the publication.

Unlike traditional currencies, bitcoin does not have a central authority. Instead, cryptography is used to oversee transactions, manage supply and prevent fraud. Gandal et al. analyzed data that had been anonymously dumped in 2014 after allegations that 650,000 bitcoins had been fraudulently taken.

They found that a majority of the price manipulation happened due to two bots with "??" listed as the name of the user country. They named these bots "Markus" and "Willy."

Markus bought and sold bitcoin at seemingly random prices and did not pay transaction fees. Upon further review, they found reason to believe that Markus was not actually paying for the bitcoins he was receiving. Markus acquired a total of 335,898 bitcoins and was active from February 14th, 2013 until September 27th, 2013.

Seven hours after Markus became inactive, Willy appeared as a group of 49 accounts. Each of these Willy accounts would sequentially purchase $2.5 million worth of bitcoin and then become inactive. Over this period, the price of bitcoin spiked.

On days in which this suspicious activity occurred, the USD-BTC exchange rate rose by $20 on average. On the days in which no suspicious activity occurred, the exchange rate saw a slight decline.

By analyzing the identification numbers associated with Willy's account the researchers were able to confirm their suspicion that a single actor was responsible for both bots that, over the course of 2013, had acquired approximately 600,000 bitcoins.

"We conclude that the suspicious trading activity caused the unprecedented spike in the USD-BTC exchange rate in late 2013, when the rate jumped from around $150 to more than $1,000 in two months," they write.
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. Header-only clients like Bither trust that the majority of mining power is honest for the purposes of enforcing network rules such as the 21 million BTC limit. Full clients do not trust miners in this way.
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JimboToronto
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January 23, 2018, 05:51:15 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we're still riding the Bitcoin rollercoaster, down a grand, up a grand... currently $11135US/$13866CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

So much FUD...S.  Korea then India "banning" Bitcoin, the USA IRS "killing" it... and honey badger don't give a shit.

Business as usual.
xhomerx10
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Go! BTC Go!


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January 23, 2018, 05:55:46 PM

You're awful needy for a top.

The fiatcoin to fund the next decade or so isn't going to just magically materialize without me actively watching the Bitcorn markets, and trying to coordinate a snowball rolling on March 1st 2018.

Figured some people would enjoy the bantz.

Tongue my taint, mkay ?


 I have an idea we're going to see 14k again soon (perhaps Jan 27th/28th).  I bet you can get 13.5k with a tad more patience.

rezurect007
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January 23, 2018, 05:58:33 PM


Mempool has been having a good run lately.
https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#2w
Syke
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January 23, 2018, 06:05:38 PM

If they print money to keep the btc price low, then we print tether and buy more bitcoins. Get rekt.

That's what MtGox did.
Wekkel
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yes


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January 23, 2018, 06:06:47 PM

Every asset is in a bubble. Ok, PMs are rather stagnant the last 5 years  Grin

I wonder how GS thinks about this ‘everything bubble’ thesis  Roll Eyes
mindrust
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January 23, 2018, 06:15:55 PM

If they print money to keep the btc price low, then we print tether and buy more bitcoins. Get rekt.

That's what MtGox did.

I think that's not exactly what GoX did. As far as i know there wasn't any tethers around at that time.
Torque
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January 23, 2018, 06:21:56 PM

If they print money to keep the btc price low, then we print tether and buy more bitcoins. Get rekt.

That's what MtGox did.

I think that's not exactly what GoX did. As far as i know there wasn't any tethers around at that time.


During the '13/'14 downturn, there was just constant dumping. Thousands and thousands of coins, over such long months of non-stop dumping. It baffled everyone. Then later when it was revealed that Mt. Gox had been hacked two years earlier and was insolvent, I suddenly realized where all those mystery coins were coming from.

In hindsight, Mt. Gox getting hacked and shut down was the best thing that could have happened to the longevity of the Bitcoin market. Just imagine if the hackers still had all of those hundreds of thousands of coins that they dumped back then. This rally downturn would be getting so much more rekt right now.
Ibian
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January 23, 2018, 06:25:54 PM

In-person trading is getting pretty wack. The higher the price goes the more people wanna buy. I'm looking at 2-3 normal salaries these past few months, for nothing more than some ten-minute meetings. Never could have imagined this back when I started doing it.
Torque
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January 23, 2018, 06:31:41 PM

Every asset is in a bubble. Ok, PMs are rather stagnant the last 5 years  Grin

I wonder how GS thinks about this ‘everything bubble’ thesis  Roll Eyes

True. Good buying op if you like PMs. I sometimes buy a little here and there for insurance, not an investment.

Commodities adjusted for historical inflation are also undervalued right now.

I wonder how GS thinks about this ‘everything bubble’ thesis  Roll Eyes

Well, since they helped create it...  Wink
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January 23, 2018, 06:33:59 PM

I think that's not exactly what GoX did. As far as i know there wasn't any tethers around at that time.

That's what they did - federal reserve banking including massive price manipulation through bots
becoin
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January 23, 2018, 06:48:07 PM

Biggest bubbles of our time are the dollar, the euro, the yen, and the likes. Nothing measured in fiat is a bubble!
mymenace
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January 23, 2018, 07:10:56 PM

If they print money to keep the btc price low, then we print tether and buy more bitcoins. Get rekt.

That's what MtGox did.

I think that's not exactly what GoX did. As far as i know there wasn't any tethers around at that time.


During the '13/'14 downturn, there was just constant dumping. Thousands and thousands of coins, over such long months of non-stop dumping. It baffled everyone. Then later when it was revealed that Mt. Gox had been hacked two years earlier and was insolvent, I suddenly realized where all those mystery coins were coming from.

In hindsight, Mt. Gox getting hacked and shut down was the best thing that could have happened to the longevity of the Bitcoin market. Just imagine if the hackers still had all of those hundreds of thousands of coins that they dumped back then. This rally downturn would be getting so much more rekt right now.

the thieves are very active

mt gox, cryptsy, btc-e, bitconnect - aleady hacked and completed

numerous scam coins, mining scams (BFL)  etc etc etc

which exchange is next

coinbase, bittrex?

who are the thieves

could it be Roger Ver, alphabet organisations, Sonny Vleisides, Mark karpeles, Paul Vernon, Marshall Long, Leroy Fodor etc etc etc


i can quarantine this, the thievery it is still happening, on a large scale
Karartma1
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January 23, 2018, 07:19:21 PM

Who sodl at the bottom? Ztay wins the prize today

Ok I sold some. My sacrifice to the sharks. Price will go up now. I have excellent record for selling the bottom.
Thanks for the 12% rise!
We do appreciate your help, ztay. But politeness apart, next time just hodl, will you?

On a different note, but not too much, I wanted to remind all of you who correctly picked the Real Bitcoin ATH of 2017
mattimann https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg21896560#msg21896560
mymenace
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January 23, 2018, 07:21:10 PM

Who sodl at the bottom? Ztay wins the prize today

Ok I sold some. My sacrifice to the sharks. Price will go up now. I have excellent record for selling the bottom.
Thanks for the 12% rise!
We do appreciate your help, ztay. But politeness apart, next time just hodl, will you?

On a different note, but not too much, I wanted to remind all of you who correctly picked the Real Bitcoin ATH of 2017
mattimann https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg21896560#msg21896560

they were not the only one

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/

as well prediction over 50000 this year

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January 23, 2018, 07:50:25 PM

https://stripe.com/blog/ending-bitcoin-support

https://www.coindesk.com/microsoft-hyperledger-un-join-blockchain-identity-initiative/
rafanadal
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January 23, 2018, 07:54:31 PM

short lived pump
jojo69
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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January 23, 2018, 08:07:45 PM

DOOM
J. Cooper
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Alea iacta est


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January 23, 2018, 08:17:35 PM



which exchange is next

coinbase, bittrex?

who are the thieves


The folks over at Coinbase can already be considered as thieves. The amount of apparently 'lost' wire transfers to coinbase that I've seen on reddit this year already and last year as well is disturbing. Some are still pending since october/november-ish and still nothing to this day. No support from coinbase whatsoever. How are these guys still in business after everything that has happened?
d_eddie
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January 23, 2018, 08:18:11 PM

I'll try the homespun solution, install docker and all.
I'd be interested in your Internet bandwidth consumption, should you be wiling to share.
I will post some data, but don't hold your breath. I'll need some free time to install the thing - starting with Docker - and some more to figure out how to measure LN's bandwitdh tax unbundled from bitcoind's base requirements. Got any suggestions?

I dunno.... filter a wireshark dump of all port 8333 traffic? Wild speculation. I don't know how LN comms are routed within the host networking layer.

I was hoping not to have to install special instrumentation like wireshark. Well, when I get to that I'll do what I have to.
BTW, 8333 is for bitcoind. LN uses a different port (can't recall right now).
No need to install any additional package. You can utilize iptables as shown there: https://unix.stackexchange.com/a/398176
Thanks for the tip. Bookmarked for later reference.
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