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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25490590 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (158 posts by 14 users with 9 merit deleted.)
sirazimuth
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January 23, 2018, 12:54:49 AM
Last edit: January 23, 2018, 03:09:37 AM by sirazimuth

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?

I have no idea what you're talking about.

You and everyone else.
That idjut owz is the very definition of an annoying btctalk wo poster...
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January 23, 2018, 12:57:46 AM

I'm also curious where BTC will be at the end of 2018?

As are we all.

Somebody did a monte carlo simulation based upon a random sampling of daily returns. The center of the probability distribution function was $55.5K.

$55,530 center of distribution
Probability of less than $13K - 9.84%
80% confidence interval: $13,200.00-$271,277.00

You can quibble with the validity of past returns used as a basis for future predictions, but its one analysis.

https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2

That's a pretty solid analysis (bookmarked), $55K is a very realistic prediction. I would only assume that at the end of 2018 $55K wouldn't have been to all time high but still a very good price estimation. At the end of the day it's still educated guessing but it was refreshing to see a HQ price analysis based on raw math.

Indeed. We may need to temper expectations due to what seems to be a potential emerging halvening cycle. IOW, perhaps a completely random sampling of the daily returns is useful for predictions below a four-year-ish granularity. Though this could easily be offset by the first inlking of widespread, news-cycle driven FOMO.
jbreher
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January 23, 2018, 01:02:27 AM

This recent fallback to 10k is no more a correction.

No shit! We haven't been this low in... in...

...oh...

...about two months. Nevermind.
vanobe
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January 23, 2018, 01:21:25 AM

This recent fallback to 10k is no more a correction.

No shit! We haven't been this low in... in...

...oh...

...about two months. Nevermind.

It's a higher low than the drop to  four digits last week.

This time last year I was ecstatic it had gone above $1000. I can live with a crash to 10x that price this year.
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January 23, 2018, 01:21:53 AM

Here is a prediction: Bitcoin is going to crash in about one hour, hodl on to your butts!

Disclaimer: I reserves the right to make (at least) a thousand more "Bitcoin is going to crash" predictions in the near future.
Searing
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January 23, 2018, 01:25:55 AM



If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!

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January 23, 2018, 01:35:16 AM



If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!



Yeah he is definately Satoshi.

Instead of buying a Lambo, he just rents one. Because when you got so much money... why buy when you can rent since it costs more.
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January 23, 2018, 01:38:32 AM

Haven't checked this thread in a few days... I skimmed through a page or two but... pretty sure I saw what looked like jbreher going bullish on BTC. What else did I miss!?

Also... where are those optimism charts.  Could use one right about now.
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January 23, 2018, 01:43:36 AM



If Craig Wright is Satoshi (or part of that group of three with hal finney and the other guy..both that have passed away) and there is a BTC Trust he can get a hold of worth

Billions on Jan 1st 2020 as he claims...well, he is gonna flush a lot of BTC and watch us burn, for how he sees his treatment by BTC community and the press....

he currently has some folk convinced that he is Satoshi and patenting blockchain and everything else he can try to do (on the assumption he can prove he is satoshi IF the

trust is real and he has access)

only a 1 out of 20 chance IMHO, of this being true....but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!



Yeah he is definately Satoshi.

Instead of buying a Lambo, he just rents one. Because when you got so much money... why buy when you can rent since it costs more.

Maybe he put all Satoshi's coins in an ethereum smart contract BTC Trust in 2010. He obviously can't access the coins until that ethereum smart contract matures. He can buy a lambo collection after that.
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January 23, 2018, 01:44:50 AM


chuckle-worthy
jbreher
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January 23, 2018, 01:45:24 AM

We’re in the cross-over transition phase between a correction and the next impulse up.

We are precisely right in the middle of nowhere.

Directly above the very center of the earth.
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January 23, 2018, 01:52:18 AM


Directly above the very center of the earth.

Officially, the most accurate estimation of the day.
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January 23, 2018, 01:53:52 AM

I think that in this context the BIG words of, "apparently not" only signify that BTC price had been continuing to have downwards price pressures in spite of news that should be unambiguously positive, in terms of BTC fundamentals.

That's what I assumed as well. My point was that they should say that and stop making people assume.

I don't proclaim to be immuned from getting in unnecessary battles and quibbling - yet it is quite common that posters do not explain some of what they mean, and we do not necessarily attribute bad motive to them, unless they have a history of showing such bad motives (including purposefully attempting to mislead).  It seems that I did not read as much ambiguity as you had seemed to into that sentence.

At the time the price was changing +-$100; negligible compared to what we've been dealing with the last few days and weeks. Even now, the price is still within ~$100 of this morning; apparently the news/non-news is not having all that great an effect on price as they implied.

Of course, each of us can come to differing conclusions about the significance of various events, whether those events are related to news or momentum or a combination of such.

Further, when we are in the middle of a price correction, it can be hell-a difficult to determine exactly when such price correction is over and whether support is slowly being widdled away.  A few days ago, I was beginning to feel some confidence that BTC prices had risen enough to bring us out of the severities of this current correction that is testing $9k/$10k support, and surely, I was thinking that we were getting close to breaking above $13k and getting above $13k would be a kind of sign and also distance us a bit from $9k/$10k striking distance - but in the end, we are back and within fairly close proximity of such $9k/$10k support.

I have no fucking idea if we are close to breaking through such $9k/$10k support, but the longer that we are down here, then there can be questions and doubts regarding whether $9k/$10k support is going to hold.


It's just annoying seeing "click-bait-esque" posts on here that the user adds nothing to the conversations.

Hahahahahaha...  We are not going to get rid of any of that any time soon, and seems like infofront has a decently tolerating moderation style that errs on the side of allowing for posts, which I think works pretty well for this particular thread.

I'd much rather read through longer posts (like yours or even, dare I say it, r0ach's haha), at least I can try and glean something from them.

I gotta try to recognize humor in a couple of respects, here.

1) There are probably fewer than 5% of readers of this thread that would actually admit to liking either the quantity or the quality of my posts, so you are likely an anomaly in that regard.

2) I feel a bit of unease to be placed into any kind of camp with the roachster, but I suppose if Roachity and I were to go to a bar for beers, perhaps we would be able to finish one or two beers before one or the other of us would have to exit because we just could not take the togetherness any longer.  Sound like a set up for a joke:  "Roach and JJG walk into a bar ...... blah blah blah........ OMG"


If I wanted useless posts, I'd go to r/btc. Oh well, my ignore list grows (like it matters, I'm a nobody here :p).

I've never put anyone on ignore.  I guess I would rather just browse through the posts that are not to my liking rather than to eliminate them.   This thread does tend to be so prolific though that ignoring could become time-management helpful.

Edit: The next 24 hours are critical

This whole fucking week could be critical, but it is so difficult to say.  I believe that BTC trade volume continues at a high enough level that we are not too likely to experience boring any time in the near future.  Accordingly, it will remain interesting to witness whether we 1) break below $9k to $10k support, 2) get caught in a kind of $9500 to $12,500 territory for many days, or 3) significantly break above $13k... Me thinks that it could take several days to play out beyond the next 24 hours.
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January 23, 2018, 02:06:08 AM

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

[edited out]


WHY SO MANY OFF YOU THINKING PRICE WILL BE ONDER 8K END THIS MONTHY??  WHILE SO MANY OFF YOU GUESS ALL THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE  DATES WHEN THIS LIST CAME OUT Huh

Looks like your caps lock is stuck, MICGOOSSEN.   Tongue       

Of course, factors change over one month or two months time, and therefore, what is reasonable and/or probable changes, too.  There is no absolute inevitable price direction or predetermined outcome in regards to the future, and that is one of the reason that any kind of precise prediction game is going to end up being largely luck, and maybe only a sliver of skill or even the fantastical concept of prescience.

-if the capLock wasn’t on you would’t see the writing under the list ....
- and offcourse its a dumb luck game.., everybody with a little bit of good mind knows we have to buy BTC for the long term hodl and not to see the price every day and set 1000 of sell orders and buy orders and.... Just buy and When possible to afford more Just to buy and hodl as well.., maybe every week month same date Just buy no matter what the price is @ that time.... and after good learning Reading maybe buy 10 of the 100 % in other currency’s
- ONLY i have the same Sickness of checking the price constantly knowing that i’m Not Going to sell but Thats Just my problem ;-)  ( while i tel all my friends buy don’t look Just buy When possible)


O.k.  Fair enough.   I cannot argue with a strategy that seems to emphasize dollar cost averaging and HODLing; however, I do believe that there could be a certain point of time in which you also feel comfortable selling some BTC, and likely that point is going to differ for different peeps. 

In retrospect, I recall that I had established my initial accumulation goal for BTC to become about 10% of my quasi-liquid investment assets, and I believe that I became more motivated to play around and to sell some of my BTC once the value of my BTC (both through accumulation and price appreciation) crossed over 15% of the value of my quasi-liquid investments.  I did not really stop dollar cost average investing; however, I became a lot less gunshy about selling.  Further, we know that BTC prices have gone through the fucking roof - with a 78x increase, and still largely bouncing around in a 35x to 50x appreciation (using $250 as a bouncing off beginning value).   So much crazy ass BTC price appreciation can also cause greater willingness to sell some of it upon price rises.
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January 23, 2018, 02:16:58 AM

...but that is my Bitcoin Boogman Senario...(hell, after Trump became President of the USA...all unlikely things in my mind now are

now possible)

shudder!



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January 23, 2018, 02:38:09 AM

Haven't checked this thread in a few days... I skimmed through a page or two but... pretty sure I saw what looked like jbreher going bullish on BTC. What else did I miss!?

You say that as if it is an exception. Huh I am -- and have ever been -- bullish on Bitcoin.
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January 23, 2018, 02:47:07 AM

Dafuq is EOS  ??

ETH v11.0
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January 23, 2018, 02:58:14 AM

I wanted useless posts

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January 23, 2018, 03:15:38 AM


Useless posts ? Ah yes,  around here,  they usually end with "weeeee..."
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January 23, 2018, 03:25:31 AM

wheres your "crypto-god" ceo now?

I have no idea what you're talking about.



 Cool

pawns in my game~BTCBTC
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