Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Something is going on... Bullish signal ?

https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#2h

The spammer bitches gave up.

 I believe there’s a correlation between price movement and mem pool activity. In this cause the most recent final spike seems to follow the falling price which was looking rather ugly at that time.   The mem pool falls as price stagnates.  

Here we can compare 7 day google trends for bitcoin against mem pool activity. 


imagehost ru

The problem is I don’t think this information tells us anything we don’t already know. Unless we read something rather concerning into the mem pool being empty.

[HairyMaclairy]

Either way there is rampant price manipulation.  There is a thread around here somewhere where the OP tells everyone in advance that the market is going to crash on  monday 15th.  Im sure his accuracy was just random hmm.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7pxg0d/2018_crypto_black_monday/

My theory is slightly different: wall street started loading up on btc once futures were a sure fact, and kept pumping until it established an upward avalanche-momentum when even moms and pops started panic-buying btc above 10K. While the noobs were buying above 10-15K the sharks loaded up on shorts (btc futures are still mostly short), and then, when their target was hit at 20K they pulled the trigger unloading their "physical" btc making out like bandits both because they sold at the top their btc and even more from their futures short bets placed at the top. A perfect controlled demolition, which they will repeat until it works imho, that's why they will let the price pump again after the next futures expiration.

Someone has to take the other side of the short.  How can they be “mostly” short?

[TERA2]

except there is no volume on the futures exchanges

[conspirosphere.tk]

The problem is I don’t think this information tells us anything we don’t already know. Unless we read something rather concerning into the mem pool being empty.

You must be a BCHcoiner. Btc price falls 50% and mempool shrinks of a couple of order of magnitudes, and the explanation for you would be that btc is so less useful/interesting for speculation, trading, and anything else at current price? The spammers gave up, and you can too.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Someone has to take the other side of the short.  How can they be “mostly” short?

The dumb money, as always.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-21/bitcoin-futures-traders-add-shorts-short-squeeze-imminent

[HairyMaclairy]

Hash rate is also up significantly.  Could this alone bring down the mem pool?  Happy to have my theories challenged - that’s why I post them. 


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[Lopumbo]

Hash rate is also up significantly.  Could this alone bring down the mem pool?


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tx/block went down 30% and ~20% too fast mining over the last 7 days

[d_eddie]

I was hoping not to have to install special instrumentation like wireshark.

Well, wireshark is about as universal a network analysis tool as exists.

BTW, 8333 is for bitcoind. LN uses a different port (can't recall right now).

Exactly. Filter out all 8333 and what are you left with? Traffic not to/from your validating client - which I believe was what you were looking for in your query.

I'd be left with the rest of the traffic - which isn't LN alone. I'd better filter to select LN traffic only. But that's a minor detail.

[flynn]

Either way there is rampant price manipulation.  There is a thread around here somewhere where the OP tells everyone in advance that the market is going to crash on  monday 15th.  Im sure his accuracy was just random hmm.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7pxg0d/2018_crypto_black_monday/

My theory is slightly different: wall street started loading up on btc once futures were a sure fact, and kept pumping until it established an upward avalanche-momentum when even moms and pops started panic-buying btc above 10K. While the noobs were buying above 10-15K the sharks loaded up on shorts (btc futures are still mostly short), and then, when their target was hit at 20K they pulled the trigger unloading their "physical" btc making out like bandits both because they sold at the top their btc and even more from their futures short bets placed at the top. A perfect controlled demolition, which they will repeat until it works imho, that's why they will let the price pump again after the next futures expiration.

Someone has to take the other side of the short.  How can they be “mostly” short?

You know, it's a bubble, ... blah blah blah

[Lopumbo]

[fabiorem]

My theory is slightly different: wall street started loading up on btc once futures were a sure fact, and kept pumping until it established an upward avalanche-momentum when even moms and pops started panic-buying btc above 10K. While the noobs were buying above 10-15K the sharks loaded up on shorts (btc futures are still mostly short), and then, when their target was hit at 20K they pulled the trigger unloading their "physical" btc making out like bandits both because they sold at the top their btc and even more from their futures short bets placed at the top. A perfect controlled demolition, which they will repeat until it works imho, that's why they will let the price pump again after the next futures expiration.

I have the same impression. Just compare October and November, you'll see that it spiked too much.

They dont need to have too much volume on the exchanges, just enough to trigger the noobs, to buy at first and then to sell.

So my guess is that after 26th, they will pump it again. But I doubt it will have the same effect this time. January always have crashes, they just intensified it.

[d_eddie]

For those playing along at home, you'll no doubt note that (should my understanding be correct), BW consumption scales at O(n^2).
I'm sure it will improve when the routing invention breakthrough occurs.

(snip)

(snip)

Honestly, I don't know which solution has eventually been adopted in this first version of the LN, but already in 2016 the proposed method was significantly better than the naive SAN technique you hint at.

Great. What does that have to do with the shipping implementation? Anything?

Let's summarize our path so far:
you: I'll try it out
me: cool - please let me know about your BW use. My understanding is it broadcasts all state to everyone
you: oh posh! how dare you assume the devs did not do better
me: well, that's what I'm led to believe - you have better info?
you: no, but here's a possibly relevant scrap of a possibly workable design that would do better

I mean, I don't mean to misrepresent anything here, but that's the way it looks from my vantage point.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@emabfuri/bitfury-bitcoin-routing-lightning-network-solution

Here's a relevant excerpt.

Using a fog of war like design, the collected information by the routing algorithm “includes channels within a low hop-distance and paths to randomly selected nodes further away… As a result, a node will have a well-illuminated map of its local neighborhood within the network, with random patches of visibility further away enabled by the selection of beacon nodes.”

I often write with rhetorical metaphorical flourish as well. But not within a technical specification that I expect to be taken seriously. So in addition to questioning this excerpt's relevance to current code, I also question it's author's capability.

So, it's not an initially low TTL that gets conservatively increased as I had wildly imagined, but not so far off either: closer nodes are exhaustively enumerated, while a small set of distant nodes is selected pseudorandomly.

Which still leaves quite the bulk elided from view. In what way is this anonymous? How does it handle nodes dropping off the network? And the ensuing rejoins? 'Beacons'? Is that a euphemism for trusted intermediary?

It just sounds like we're being asked to buy a pig in a poke. Again, my assumptions could be wrong. But life has taught me well that SW projects are rarely underpromised and overdelivered.

That excerpt is from a nontechnical post. That's why it has language suitable for laypersons. I pasted it in to give you the gist of it. However, there are fewer "metaphorical flourishes" than you think.

"Beacon node", for example. In this context the term has a precise technical meaning.

I linked the full pdf with specs and more technical details, but the link got "elided from view" in your reply. It would be useful to read it before going on with this discussion.

http://bitfury.com/content/5-white-papers-research/whitepaper_flare_an_approach_to_routing_in_lightning_network_7_7_2016.pdf


NOTE: Emphatic bold while quoting jbreher is mine.

[Icygreen]

Isn't bitmain in the process of moving miners out of China? This could be related to the disappearing spam in the mempool.

[Torque]

Someone has to take the other side of the short.  How can they be “mostly” short?

The dumb money, as always.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-21/bitcoin-futures-traders-add-shorts-short-squeeze-imminent

I love in that article how J.P. Morgan provided all the detailed aggregate charts for Bitcoin and other crypto. They sure have a lot of time on their hands to analyze a market that they supposedly can't stand. 

[Icygreen]

Nice find! Bullish and the regulations need to be tightened on exchanges if we'll ever leave the wild west.

[Heater]

I thought bitconnect was a one off. Nope - there are dozens of these stupid scams:

https://www.cryptolendingprograms.com/

 

[Heater]

This does not surprise me a all. I have been involved in on site IT audits of large cloud / hosting providers - standards are usually very very low and lots of stupid security holes like those listed above. It's scary when you think about what they have been trusted to manage.

[mymenace]

The coming Crypto World WAR, the war to end all wars.


National Crypto currencies are coming
https://www.rt.com/business/416826-ntional-cryptocurrencies-challenge-bitcoin/

Global Crypto currency (IMF)
https://www.acchain.org/en/


Choose your Ally
Globalisation (One World Currency/SDR/ACCchain)

Nationalism (Centraliazed/Regulated)

Humanity (Decentralization/Unregulated)

[Last of the V8s]

The coming Crypto World WAR, the war to end all wars.

National Crypto currencies are coming
https://www.rt.com/business/416826-ntional-cryptocurrencies-challenge-bitcoin/

Global Crypto currency (IMF)
https://www.acchain.org/en/


Choose your Ally
Globalisation (One World Currency/SDR/ACCchain)

Nationalism (Centraliazed/Regulated)

Humanity (Decentralization/Unregulated)

http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-this-is-a-war-to-end-all-wars-woodrow-wilson-59-77-31.jpg[/img]

pfft. that all belongs in the altcoin section

[lightfoot]

Well this sucks, payment processors are dumping bitcoin...

http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/24/technology/stripe-ends-bitcoin-payments/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom

I don't like viewing bitcoin as a store of wealth, it's supposed to be used for things. That is why I accept it as payment for services. But lately I've just been using Litecoin instead...

That said it looks like there are onlly 70k transactions in the queue for a total value of 1btc in fees. Which should mean spam and an ability to transfer coins a bit.....