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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24581080 times)
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September 09, 2020, 10:29:48 PM

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September 09, 2020, 11:00:54 PM

I love crypto.  I have been using crypto since long before Bitcoin ever existed; indeed, it was my longtime interest in crypto that got me interested in Bitcoin, not vice versa.  Crypto is much bigger than Bitcoin:  [Bitcoin is only one of the most interesting applications of crypto,]

You know better than that, nullius.

You misunderstood me.  I added back in brackets an important phrase that you snipped.

Crypto is bigger than Bitcoin, because crypto is bigger than cryptocurrency.

Cryptocurrency is only one application of crypto:  The usage of crypto to create a new form of money.  Usually, if I want to refer to cryptocurrency, I simply talk about Bitcoin.

Similarly, I hate it when people conflate the Internet with the Web.  The Internet is much more than the Web.  The Web is only one application of the Internet, just as Bitcoin is only one application of crypto—and of the Internet, too.

Even if I clipped out part of your point, I did not misunderstand the point that you were attempting to make, and you are making it again.

Largely this thread is about bitcoin, so there is no need for us to get into from where bitcoin comes (and under which category it might fit) or technical appreciations of what bitcoin might be and not be... we do not tend to be a technical thread, and those kinds of ideas would largely distract us from applicability questions - and common man understandings which are likely needed.  There are other threads for nuanced technical and nuanced historical discussions.  I doubt this is one of them nor was it even the point that Torque and I were attempting to flesh out.  Largely the point that both Torque and I were discussing has to do with a more narrow understanding of the vagueness in which bitcoin is contexualized or failed to be contexualized within the term crypto, when referring to the concept of crypto currencies, and I do not even believe it helps here to go into further abstraction rather than sticking with the more basic original point(s) that we were attempting to discuss.


The Internet includes the Bitcoin network.  Well, imagine if people started calling Bitcoin “net”, and then expanded that to start calling any networked monetary application “net”—and then, took to assuming that the word “net” means the latest hyped-up shitcoin scam.  So as for “crypto”.
perhaps.. that is kind of related.  Perhaps.



Those of us who are worked up about the vague term of crypto useage these days are not referring to pre-bitcoin useage of the term to the extent that we even understand much of the pre-bitcoin history.

It’s not a “pre-Bitcoin usage”; the usage is current.  We all use crypto daily in a many ways that have nothing to do with money.

See that padlock in your web browser?  That means crypto.  The point is not pedantic:  It’s a familiar current usage to anyone who is accustomed to discussing, say, the merits of modern crypto in TLS 1.3 AEAD ciphersuites.  Things have much improved since the bad old days of “export crypto”.

You are still getting into the weeds of seeming irrelevance.. or at least tangential relevance, at best.

See also all the Crypto Wars 3.0 stuff in the United States, with ongoing attempts to ban or seriously restrict crypto so as to protect the poor, innocent sheep from terrorist molesters and child financiers, etc., etc.—who will undoubtedly stop Doing Bad Things and cease to exist, if but only the government will be wise enough to keep uncompromised crypto out of the hands of Obedient Citizens who are are actually worried about what the law says.

Sure this part is a relevant and ongoing issue in current times.


“Crypto” means more than money!

You are going beyond the point.. because we were talking about crypto in terms of money.. and in terms of convoluting the issue in terms of not specifying bitcoin's role in the actual space in terms of its king daddy status amongst the various snake oil imitations that try to be presented as if they were some how equivalent to bitcoin and there are none that even come close, at least as I type this post.




If I wanted to be pedantic, I would delve into the senses of the word “crypto” that are unrelated to cryptography.

That would be even further off topic, but could be an interesting thread... if a thread on that topic does not already exist.
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September 10, 2020, 02:22:02 AM
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September 10, 2020, 02:27:21 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 03:24:58 AM by philipma1957
Merited by El duderino_ (2), vapourminer (1), Torque (1), jojo69 (1), bitserve (1), ivomm (1), THX 1138 (1)

Yep and the real key is gpu/shit coin mining.

here is some cost analysis for a miner.

[...]

I don’t think that this is relevant to Bitcoin’s market prospects.

The notion that Bitcoin is given its value by mining cost, or “backed by electricity”, etc. is a pernicious myth that needs to die.  It is the organic rise of Bitcoin’s value (based on supply and demand) that drives mining cost (and thus, Byzantine security) by increasing hashrate competition.  Not vice versa.



...

....



(Moved, to keep replies in order.)

Interesting argument.  

Lets look at it closer.  There are at least 4,000,000 coins that sit still

this shows 3.84 mill
https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/bitcoins-untouched-supply-reaches-all-time-high/

and far more amazing


https://news.bitcoin.com/close-to-11-million-btc-havent-moved-in-over-a-year/

this show 11 million untouched for a year.

lets play with 11

18.5 mined
11.0 frozen
  6.5 liquid

and 2.5 to be mined

my argument is that the 2.5 mill left  are costing 6000 watts a day to mine  0.000169 coins.  or around $17.60 plus about 4600 to get the setup

eth has ? left are costing 2100 watts a day to mine around    0.066 eth                                or  around         $24.06 plus about 4600 to get the setup up.

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

I can "buy" $24.06 in eth convert to btc and get btc at a discounted price.

Now last week the ratio was stupid high.

about $72.00 in eth convert to btc and get bc at a discount price.

these ratio's are my indicators of future price.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

personally I see the opposite I see btc price goin higher so that mining btc direct is better then mining eth and autoverting to btc.

Both of us agree that the scarcity of BTC is driving its value. hodl hodl hodl 11 million hodl for a year straight = great.

I personally think btc will rise about 24/17 x 10200 = 14400 can happen over night so to speak. More so then eth dropping 17/24  x 369 = 261 usd.

Now my gut tells me the BTC mining value will move hard on an upward level and I see 14,400 by sept 30.

Both of us like btc as the key coin. Both of us  like that it is scarce.

I don't use chart analysis like most do here.

I use difficulty and mining profit ratios to determine my future numbers.

I see eth staying at 369 or more and this will cause btc to go up in price.

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

So I see a strong movement here.


Nvidia's new cards are in demand and they will try to pump eth for sales.

That in turn gets more eth miners and since many are exactly like me BTC believers that auto vert to btc.

In fact here is a major pool


https://www.viabtc.com/pool/state

and they now are expanding auto conversion of some coins  to btc.

Many pools auto vert eth and all other shit coins to btc this all  increases demand for btc.

Ie If I mine 2000 usd  day in eth I buy 2000 usd in btc. = higher demand for a scarce coin.

look at my demand for btc below all autovert mining eth to btc
weds 9th —- 0.0326 btc
weds 2nd - - 0.0279 btc
weds 25th -  0.0201 btc
weds 18th - 0.0202. btc
weds 11th - 0.0110. btc

i am not the biggest gpu miner,but there are lots of us.

Look at my demand increase from 0.0110 btc a week to 0.0326 btc a week

now picture 100 like me you move demand from

1.10 btc a week to 3.26 btc a week

now picture 1000 like me you move demand from 11 btc a week to 32.6 btc a week

now picture 10000 like me you move demand from 110 btc a week to 326 btc a week

remember this btc are not mined so they are purchased from the newly mined btc or circulating coins.

at a certain point enough higher priced  eth changing into   btc like i do will drag btc price up.

nicehash mines 33 btc a day with eth

last week it was 11 btc a day with eth

this is a 22 coin a day increase in demand  for btc.
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September 10, 2020, 03:26:10 AM


I don't use chart analysis like most do here.







--------
late night charts



45m


tell him a riddle then tickle the genies nose
4h

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September 10, 2020, 04:15:34 AM

SHOCKING: Leaked video of Toxic preparing his charts for posting:

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September 10, 2020, 05:21:25 AM


https://blockstream.info/address/1DGwqAM8mV4aJVPidoBp9Zfz8GKhAzLkma
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ipcanh/damaged_secret_key/
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September 10, 2020, 05:45:34 AM
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September 10, 2020, 05:53:42 AM



You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).
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September 10, 2020, 06:06:36 AM

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1303937002677481480
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September 10, 2020, 06:07:56 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 07:02:21 AM by JayJuanGee



You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

cough\Zoom out a bit, nutildah, and your nonsensical desire for BTC correlation is likely to be a wee bit less convincing

No one, including yours truly, is not recognizing or appreciating the existence of short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets, even a year or two, here and there is going to be correlation, of course.

By the way you notice that Phil_S's above chart only covers 3 months at best?  What you going to see with a three month snapshot, especially if it comes to any kind of meaningful discussion of possible correlation?  Many of us here attempt to understand our context of where we are in bitcoin in terms of where we have been on a longer scale, which also likely gives us some better ideas about where we might be going.. sure, nothing is guaranteed, but 3 months is NOT a long time in the life of king daddy in order to figure out where we are, what is happening currently or even where we might be going, as you should realize by now, nutildah.

Bitcoin also has four-year fractal theories, as you likely realize, that attempt to appreciate BTC's price dynamics and movements.  Four years is a bit longer than 3 months if you had not realized, in order to attempt to appreciate where we might be within a potentially more meaningful cycle... and if you might want to attempt to make broad claims about bitcoin compared to other assets... Again, NOT absolutely determinative, but seemingly better than a three month depiction.

Do you have some overlays that you would like to make with bitcoin and equities or other assets on a four-year or longer time horizon and still argue purported correlation, nutildah?  Let's see how those might end up playing out.

Here's one that is showing a 6-year timeline comparing gold and equities.. so it is a bit longer than 4 years, and longer should be even better, if making BIG claims, no?

Do you notice correlation between BTC, gold and stocks on a six year timeline?

From the linked chart, you see that during the past 6 years, BTC is currently up nearly 12x... gold is up 50% during that same period and equities are up only 33%.  Is that correlation, or what?

Do you believe that in the future, all of a sudden those assets are going to become correlated, merely because they have some appearance of correlation in the past three months?  You don't really believe that do you?  I thought that you were a bitcoiner, nutildah?  You have some other allegiances?  Do you have coins, or no?

Do you have some other asset that you would like to attempt to compare to bitcoin in order to argue purported correlation?   I am waiting.

I doubt anything that you might hypothetically be able to find to compare is going to be as broad of a market and a concept as bitcoin. Yeah, you might show some collectors art or some piece of property or a business here or there, but I doubt that there are any market classes that you could find that is as broad as bitcoin in terms of showing similar price performance/correlation to bitcoin.  I thought that there had already been a lot of smart analysis to show that one of the benefits of bitcoin is the lack of correlation (of course, longer term), but go ahead, nutildah, if you have some asset or some way of actually showing longer term BTC correlation with some other asset(s).

Sure, you can take those same DCABTC comparison charts that I linked above, and you can make the timeline shorter within that website interface.  The shorter the timeline the closer the correlation appears to exist between BTC and stocks and even gold, but again, no one here is arguing that short-term correlation does not exist, including yours truly... and we know that bitcoin has longer cycles (heard of the 4-year fractal?  of course there are some similar models too that are on longer time horizons and would not be locked into short-term appearances, including 1) Plan B's stock to flow model and 2) s-curve exponential adoption theories based on metcalfe and networking principles).

Furthermore, bitcoin also has had a quite a few number of explosive price periods that happen unexpectedly and on only a few days of each year, and you better have your ass (and your assets) in the BTC on those particular few up performance days, otherwise you will be whining like a no coiner or trying to argue for correlation that ONLY exists when you selectively choose your information and point at others as NOT seeing the light, like you happen to see.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

By the way, I appreciate the charts of Phil_S (I especially like those colors), but I surely doubt that those charts are saying very much about correlation or even long-term happenings in bitcoin when they are only covering a very short period of time.. three months in the above case.
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September 10, 2020, 06:29:37 AM
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short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.
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September 10, 2020, 06:47:39 AM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 06:58:17 AM by JayJuanGee

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

Hopefully, you can grow up a bit and become willing to explain rather making patronizing attempts at playing gotcha.  Has grandma not brought down your cookies and milk, yet?

Go on. Ball is in your court to explain your supposed correlation theory that you were suggesting as to being some kind of contrast to what I believe.  You used the word "correlation" and you also used Phil_S's 3 month chart to make your claims about "correlation" that supposedly contrasted with my beliefs about bitcoin and impliedly others like me - if there are any? / cough.

I already understand the concept of a paradigm shifting technology, and surely bitcoin is likely one of those, but i might be understanding the concept of "paradigm shifting" differently from how you understand "new paradigm," especially since you are proclaiming there to be some kind of mystery "new paradigm" that causes you so much purported contrasting enlightenment about your correlation proclamation, so perhaps you need to explain what you mean by your own terms and desires to differentiate your purportedly more enlightened status.  I am all ears.
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September 10, 2020, 07:02:22 AM
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Maybe it's just newly printed brrrr money in HNWI pockets.

They mostly buy stocks with it, but maybe 1% gets converted into bitcoin.
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September 10, 2020, 07:16:18 AM
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You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

Or at least they are acted upon by similar forces
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September 10, 2020, 07:35:48 AM

Last but not least - some peoples sex life - is acted upon similar forces. Tongue

Either way, badger does not care.
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September 10, 2020, 07:52:39 AM
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Maybe it's just newly printed brrrr money in HNWI pockets.

They mostly buy stocks with it, but maybe 1% gets converted into bitcoin.

"HNWIs are cautiously interested in holding cryptocurrencies: globally, only 29% of them show a high level of interest, while 26.9% say they are quite interested. The potential of cryptocurrencies, in terms of both investment returns and store of value, is acting as a driver of interest for HNWIs, especially among the youngest. In fact, 71.1% of those under the age of 40 attach great importance to receiving information on cryptocurrencies from the major asset management companies, compared to 13% of HNWIs over the age of 60. But when it comes to providing information on these types of instruments to HNWI clients, wealth management firms have been ambivalent, with only 34.6% of HNWIs globally claiming to have received such information from their wealth managers."

Are you a HNWI interested in Bitcoin? Ask your dedicated Wealth Manager! He will steal you juicy fees for letting you become a HODLer.
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Data from https://www.capgemini.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Capgemini-World-Wealth-Report.pdf
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September 10, 2020, 08:04:02 AM


I don’t use paper wallets but to only have one copy & not have it laminated?

School boy errors!
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September 10, 2020, 08:37:56 AM


it was worth like $250  at the time, so i dont blame him for not taking that many precautions
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September 10, 2020, 09:51:32 AM
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https://youtu.be/Idlf_LLyi1o

^
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Road to ATH..... continuing
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