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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24703899 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (153 posts by 40 users deleted.)
El duderino_
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September 10, 2020, 09:59:26 AM

^
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September 10, 2020, 10:51:01 AM

Tether wall at Sep 17th?

https://mobile.twitter.com/CasPiancey/status/1303492532815290369
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September 10, 2020, 12:58:00 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2020, 01:46:52 PM by philipma1957

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.
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September 10, 2020, 01:05:45 PM
Merited by jbreher (1), ivomm (1)


Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.
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September 10, 2020, 01:20:28 PM



You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds (cough... JJG).

Decorrelation
isn't a thing anymore
not these days at least




#haiku
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September 10, 2020, 01:36:03 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2), ivomm (1)

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!
nullius
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September 10, 2020, 01:39:52 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2)

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.


Seriously?  That is just way too pretty to fit my mental image of proudhon.
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September 10, 2020, 01:45:11 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), sirazimuth (1)

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!

A) thanks for post back
B) I am enjoying my eth to btc mining a lot.
C) The internet does cause a lot of misunderstandings. You meaning me write something with a thought in mind. Read what you wrote and say cool.  Then some read it and interprets it in a completely different way then the composer intended it to be understood.
D) I am guilty of writing free flow James Joyce style so occasionally I look at whaT I wrote and say WTF DID I MEAN. Grin

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September 10, 2020, 01:53:49 PM

SHOCKING: Leaked video of Toxic preparing his charts for posting:




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September 10, 2020, 02:06:18 PM

[...]

so purchase price is far lower to earn eth which in my case I autovert to btc.

So my point is mining btc via eth is better then mining btc straight across.

These are indicators of a lopsided ratio that favors mining eth to convert to btc.

[...]

Farmers will create more demand for btc by doing what I do. Mine eth and auto vert to BTC.

Ah, so your thesis is that shitcoin miners will dump their profits into Bitcoin.  Makes sense.  The way I read your prior post (and I read it twice), it came off as implying that the Bitcoin price should rise to equalize profitability over the higher cost of mining Bitcoin, or something of that nature.  Thanks for explaining.

Now if I were Proudhon I would say eth will drop even more and it will level out.

I don’t think that’s a proudhonism.  Most shitcoins should and will go to zero.  Ether probably won’t go to zero anytime soon, but it is way overvalued; and in terms of fundamentals, the ETH2 vapour clusterfork will continue to provide merry entertainment whilst other projects with better technology rise to eat their lunch.  (I’m not even stating that from a Bitcoin-maximal perspective:  If you want a blockchain that does what Ethereum does, but does it without so much failure and frustration, then you should be looking elsewhere...)  So, long-term prospects there are indeed quite bad; and in the shorter term, why wouldn’t dumping by miners help push down the ETH price?  I have seen that happen with others.

Meanwhile, enjoy your ethereally “mined” bitcoins!
As a fellow gpu miner I confirm philipma1957's arguments. For example, this year I was able to buy 0.05 BTC per month with my salary savings. A month ago eth/btc price doubled and gas went to the roof. I turned on my home rigs (exactly 1Gh with the last gpu installed today) and with the whole salary used for electricity I got around 3 eth turned into ~0.1 BTC. The daily income for me varies between $15 and 95$, so it is hard to tell what will happen, but I expect this increase to hold in the following months. I guess most miners convert at least 30% into bitcoin. I am a bit too agressive and I converted 60% so far. I also don't have any trust in this eth 2.0 pos thingy, so I will convert all of it before it starts.

Edit. It is good while writing a post to see that the price has increased. Currently $10475. With this pace we will regain $11K in few days or even hours.
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September 10, 2020, 02:57:39 PM

early morning card readings

Math and science prove bitcoin cannot ever have an ATH again. I did the calculations and have been studying the best Chinese and Russian sources, just as I did so many years ago.


Seriously?  That is just way too pretty to fit my mental image of proudhon.



#dyor


1h


4h

#stronghands
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September 10, 2020, 03:06:31 PM

short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets

It's not a "short-term correlation" so much as a new paradigm. Let me know when you understand the difference.

It started in feb as both the market and btc crashed hard.

It is fairly true for 2020.

Far less true prior to 2020.

Most  likely will not be true in 2021 or 2022.

Part of the reason if was not true prior to 2020 was it was too novel and too small. But this year a lot of  market money has bounced into btc as markets are besides theirselves with fears of a big crash.

It is still too small a cap under 300 bill not to delink from the market.

The real question is not if they are linked at the moment but when does btc pass the market and leave it behind.

+10 WO Merits

early morning card readings

#dyor

...

#stronghands

+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)
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September 10, 2020, 03:07:24 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.



I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.
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September 10, 2020, 03:24:47 PM
Merited by Torque (1)

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.


bank run= people taking their money out of the bank, bank stops functioning because they run on fractional reserve and don't have money there for everyone to take money out

exchange=should not run on fractional reserve, but even if it does, exchange simply closes (aka MtGox), screwing the participants

I don't see how this is a current drag on price, except a psychological blow (in case of MtGox).

BTW, people keep taking btc off of exchanges, so, maybe, all exchanges are ultimately doomed, apart from DEXes.
One can say that exchanges always need an influx of new users, otherwise experienced users will empty them (apart from price spikes when people deposit back).
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September 10, 2020, 03:25:12 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:

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September 10, 2020, 03:44:21 PM


+20 WO Merits (always enjoy your posts Toxic)






---------



It is not so much that charts are not good. They are incomplete.

It is not so much that my difficulty analysis along with gpu shit coin profit to asic btc profit is good or bad . It is in complete.

Using both are incomplete.  A major reason is any and all cryptocoins are still small market cap.

btc is 10400  x 18.5 mill in the grand scheme of wealth it is very small piece of wealth.

So price manipulation is easy to do.



I also suspect that like banks 🏦 most exchanges do not have all the wealth on hand.

Ie an exchange run 🏃‍♀️ on btc is just as easy to occur as a bank run on fiat.

This is a completely different issue but it is a real and true price drag on btc.

Still I am bullish for now and will be bullish both long and short term.


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September 10, 2020, 03:57:35 PM

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:



Since we are entering the "Epoch of Unscience" I can confirm that this analysis of Analysis is moot.
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September 10, 2020, 03:57:47 PM

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September 10, 2020, 03:58:51 PM

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September 10, 2020, 04:02:23 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Adding to this analysis with confirmed math and science:



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