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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26405997 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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October 16, 2020, 05:47:37 PM

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October 16, 2020, 05:47:46 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

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October 16, 2020, 05:56:52 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (23), LFC_Bitcoin (2)


Gentle reminder S2F doesn't take demand as an input.
As many other models (Black and Scholes) their assumptions and mechanics are independent from demand dynamics.
And this model has an R^2 of 95%: this means all other factors but the S2F have an explaining power of the Bitcoin price of 5%.
Not work investigating inho.

Your fellow S2F Zealot,
Filllippone.

My Gospel:
Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

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October 16, 2020, 07:06:06 PM


Either institutional buying is greatly exaggerated, or someone is selling a ton. Pick your poison, time should tell as one is much more sustainable than the other.
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October 16, 2020, 07:31:10 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (23), cAPSLOCK (5), JayJuanGee (1)

Institutional buying, next to OTC, is placing limit orders under the current spot price. Michael Saylor managed to obtain his 38k bitcoin like this in under 8 days without moving the price upwards (but perhaps decreasing the downward pressure?). FOMO market buying is for retail.
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October 16, 2020, 07:54:28 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (23)

Either institutional buying is greatly exaggerated, or someone is selling a ton. Pick your poison, time should tell as one is much more sustainable than the other.

They bought. They are not so dumb to shill Bitcoin and then start buying., They bought and finished. Now are shilling. When price will increase will dump. and keep a long ago decided %  of their portfolio.  Those people that thinks they bought those BTC and will keep them forever after are ....   They bought Bitcoin as a hedge. This % of their portfolio and will keep it that way.
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October 16, 2020, 08:20:59 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (23)

Either institutional buying is greatly exaggerated, or someone is selling a ton. Pick your poison, time should tell as one is much more sustainable than the other.

They bought. They are not so dumb to shill Bitcoin and then start buying., They bought and finished. Now are shilling. When price will increase will dump. and keep a long ago decided %  of their portfolio.  Those people that thinks they bought those BTC and will keep them forever after are ....   They bought Bitcoin as a hedge. This % of their portfolio and will keep it that way.

My take is that they would lean toward allowing the % to increase.  Some portfolio balancing as they go along, for sure, but the stated point (not nesecarily the actual point) was to get OUT of dollars.  Not sure what else to dump it into once it starts doubling and doubling and doubling again.
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October 16, 2020, 08:22:13 PM

Institutional buying, next to OTC, is placing limit orders under the current spot price. Michael Saylor managed to obtain his 38k bitcoin like this in under 8 days without moving the price upwards (but perhaps decreasing the downward pressure?). FOMO market buying is for retail.

Process is irrelevant, supply and demand. If price is staying the same, either demand is not there, or supply (of coins for sale) is (temporary) increased.
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October 16, 2020, 08:23:18 PM

Either institutional buying is greatly exaggerated, or someone is selling a ton. Pick your poison, time should tell as one is much more sustainable than the other.

They bought. They are not so dumb to shill Bitcoin and then start buying., They bought and finished. Now are shilling. When price will increase will dump. and keep a long ago decided %  of their portfolio.  Those people that thinks they bought those BTC and will keep them forever after are ....   They bought Bitcoin as a hedge. This % of their portfolio and will keep it that way.


Maybe, bought but now stopped buying and shilling, waiting for others to step in for domino effect.
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October 16, 2020, 08:41:05 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)



I have not been sleeping well, lately.

I merited this post because I entirely misread it.

As penance, I'm dumping my merit load on everyone I have - unignored - below the idiot post I merited.

I hope Joe Biden rots in hell.
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October 16, 2020, 08:58:36 PM

I hope the facade of democracy rots in hell. Unlikely though, due to sheeple. And reasons. And probably science and math(s).
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October 16, 2020, 09:09:43 PM
Merited by Arriemoller (1)

Has Bob shot his load?
I was hoping to taste some
I think he is dry

#nohomo
#haiku
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October 16, 2020, 09:18:44 PM

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October 16, 2020, 09:19:31 PM

I hope the facade of democracy rots in hell. Unlikely though, due to sheeple. And reasons. And probably science and math(s).

What façade?  Democracy is working.  It is manifesting the logically inevitable results of its first principles.

  • Communists:  “True Communism has never been tried.”
  • Capitalists:  “Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal”—replete with essays by a young Alan Greenspan condemning the Federal Reserve system, and calling for a return to the gold standard.  (Protip:  Ayn Rand was at heart a Communist, but she decided that she preferred suits and tophats to leather jackets and overalls.  I say this after having read all of her published works.)
  • Protestants:  “Catholics are pagans.”
  • Catholics:  “Protestants are heretics.”
  • People raised from birth with democracy, who never pause to question their unexamined assumptions:  “If only we had true democracy working as intended, it would be Utopia!”

I don’t want to put words in your mouth, strawbs; the “façade” remark just hinted at a worldview that is oft stated more explicitly, by those who seek to purify democracy against lobbying, campaign finance, party politics, or whatever other excuse they find to avoid condemning a system that is working exactly as intended.
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October 16, 2020, 09:33:25 PM
Last edit: October 17, 2020, 06:32:10 PM by Biodom

You want to talk politics...fine...but I am not interested in the current choice of two "pensioners".

What I am interested is:

1. Is this the decline era for the US "empire"?
2. If no...nothing. If yes, then would that decline be more like the decline of the British Empire (BE) or more like the decline and fall of Rome?
3. If like BE, then...nothing. If like the decline and fall of Rome, then we could be up for a few decades to few centuries of unpleasantness (Dark Ages II).
For the history buffs, it is thought that Justinian plaque (most likely caused by plague bacteria- Yersinia pestis) finished the Roman empire.
Maybe something rhymes here.

What's your take?
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October 16, 2020, 09:48:44 PM

the afternoon wall report




sideways with a Sunday bump perhaps      #dyor
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kitteh arches back over OKx shenanigans
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October 16, 2020, 09:55:00 PM

You want to talk politics...fine...but I am not interested in the current choice of two "pensioners".

What I am interested is:

1. Is this the decline era for the US "empire"?
2. If no...nothing. If yes, then would that decline be more like the decline of the British Empire (BE) or more like the decline and fall of Rome?
3. If like BE, then...nothing. If like the decline and fall of Rome, then we could be up for a few decades to few centuries of unpleasantness (Dark Ages II).
For the history buffs, it is thought that Justinian plaque (most likely caused by plaque bacteria- Yersinia pestis).
Maybe something rhymes here.

What's your take?

I suspect the US will slowly decline and be superceded by China, and the effects will be similar to those experienced by Britain after its decline in the 20thC and subsequent succession by US. The British are still pretty comfortable though, in terms of per capita GDP and standard of living. So while the US might decline, it will be slow enough not to affect its citizens for a few more generations, and even then it may not be very dramatic.

Or war. Always a possibility probability guarantee over time.
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October 16, 2020, 10:18:01 PM
Last edit: October 16, 2020, 10:45:18 PM by nullius

You want to talk politics...fine...but I am not interested in the current choice of two "pensioners".

What I am interested is:

1. Is this the decline era for US "empire"?

Yes.

2. If no...nothing. If yes, then would that decline be more like the decline of the British Empire (BE) or more like the decline and fall of Rome?

I think more like the fall of Rome—except that this time, the Empire is global.  Thus per the below, I do not contemplate only the American Empire.

Results most probably will include the total destruction of all civilization and advanced knowledge, thus sending the talking monkeys back to the Stone Age—and may possibly instead cause their extinction.

N.b. that many authors who recognize this reality suffer a foreshortening of their predictions.  The historical process of this collapse will probably not happen overnight, or in a year, or even in a mere few decades.  Barring a sudden (and unpredictable) mass catastrophe, the dead remains of civilization may keep momentum even for another century or two.

I do think that the collapse is nigh inevitable, barring a drastic, radical global change that has negligible chance of actually happening.

Only a fool would claim to know in advance exactly how all of this will play out.  And to be clear, I myself am dosing with Hopium® for technological civilization to last at least a bit longer.  It may.  And none of us is prepared for otherwise.  Don’t argue with me; I obviously know what the fuck I am talking about.  99% of “prepper” stuff is, unfortunately, a self-comforting illusion.  A few people may be well enough prepared to have a small chance of long-term survival in the event of a global collapse—of the global collapse, an historically unprecedented event, the Fall of Rome raised by a few orders of magnitude.

I am not a financial analyst.  I think in historical terms.  The context that you snipped:

Every sane person has known for a very long time that the dollar must collapse someday; but trying to predict when is like trying to predict the fall of the Roman Empire when you are living in it at some undermined point between c. A.D. 300–400... or is it later than I think?



3. If like BE, then...nothing.

There, you are wrong!  The fall of the British Empire was a part of the rise of its replacement, the American Empire; and by no mere coincidence, it brought the spread of International Communism.  (Edit of draft in preview:  inb4 strawbs.  Nullian posts take too long to make.)

If this were like the fall of the British Empire, I would say that, in all likelihood, the Communist American Empire would be replaced by the Capitalist Chinese Empire (PRC is nowadays governed from the stock exchange).  That is not an improvement, and not “nothing”.

We may see a phase of Chinese global hegemony before the globalist, International de facto One World Government empire system collapses.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  As I have alluded before somewhere, I think that that may be a feint to distract from current and near-future events in Europe.

If like the decline and fall of Rome, then we could be up for a few decades to few centuries of unpleasantness (Dark Ages II).

We are already in a Dark Age.  It is thus far covered by a façade of shiny gadgets, which are brought forth by the momentum of a dead civilization.  Or better said:  Your iGoog device is a maggot feeding off the bloated corpse of civilization.

Culture is dead.  Art is dead.  Literature is dead.  Science, in the sense of objective (and apolitical) search for naturalistic truths, is dead.  All that we have remaining is technicians, who are essentially automobile mechanics with higher IQs, Ph.D. degrees from vocational schools misnamed “universities”, and accordingly bloated egos:  They fancy themselves to be “scientists”!

A Dark Age is never obvious to the chattering apes, whose blind eyes and small minds are wrapped in its tenebrous embrace.  Most people are not historical thinkers, and are incapable of attaining historical perspective.  You would need to step outside your own worldview, detach yourself from the modern Zeitgeist with all of its fantastic conceits, and see the world today as would a man from at least 150–200 years ago (better: 2000–2500 years ago).

For the history buffs, it is thought that Justinian plaque (most likely caused by plaque bacteria- Yersinia pestis).
Maybe something rhymes here.

The fall of Rome was caused by a combination of the internal decline of the patrician class, and the plague of Christianity, a memetic virus that is tantamount to mental AIDS.

What's your take?

This—n.b. the date before Covid, when exuberant faith in ever-increasing prosperity was more fashionable:

Society cannot continue even another hundred years the way we are now.

I thought it clear, my implication was past-tense.  You are most of a hundred years out of date for the collapse of anything which could be properly called a functioning “society”.  Some might say, more than a hundred years.  The problem is that those living in a post-apocalyptic desert of downfallen, zombie-like anthropoids have already forgotten what it means to be human—what it meant, once upon a time.

By comparison, Roman society was a zombified rotting corpse for four or five centuries before the civil machine built by long-gone forebears ran out of momentum.  I can see how greater technology could have accelerated the ultimate downfall in various ways.

What’s left is to secure yourself, take care of your own, live by honour alone whereas law is meaningless, keep busy with something productive, and try to have some fun.

[...]
I believe nullius has a more optimistic view of the future than I do.  Smiley

“Optimism is cowardice.” — Spengler (writing most of a hundred years ago)
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October 16, 2020, 10:31:24 PM

The way am seeing the price of bitcoin, bitcoin can surge more than $12k before this year ends. The bull season will happen around Q3 of next year. By then the world health organization has find the vaccine of covid-19 and everything (economy) has stabilize
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October 16, 2020, 11:00:14 PM

P.S., this calls to mind an unpublished draft of a prior reply to Biodom:

For the history buffs, it is thought that Justinian plaque (most likely caused by plaque bacteria- Yersinia pestis).
Maybe something rhymes here.

The fall of Rome was caused by a combination of the internal decline of the patrician class, and the plague of Christianity, a memetic virus that is tantamount to mental AIDS.

In the Late Roman Empire, just as today, the only significant number of people who believed that Rome could ever collapse were Christian fanatics—who were factually certain that Jesus was coming for them Any Day Now™.

Vide the modern plague of evangelicals who want to tell you all about the Rapture, et cetera, ad nauseam.  Happening Really Soon™.

"Turning and turning in the widening gyre [...]"

Is this a cingularity, collapse, or something altogether different?
Not a good vibe.

Yeats was grasping for mysticism at a time when the world was in chaos, and his wife had just almost died of the flu.  Global pandemic flu with high lethality, which cut through populations of young, healthy people like a scythe felling wheat.  Thus, “The Second Coming”.  Any Day Now™.

(Anyway, it has already happened.  The true “Second Coming” was Karl Marx, who reformed the original second-century dogmata of the faith on a new foundation.  In the Age of Science, fairytales became unsustainable, and rather embarrassing.  The essence of Communism is a synthesis of Sermon on the Mount 2.0, Post French Revolutionary Edition, with the economic worldview of Capitalism—wherefore the Communist Bible is titled, Capital.)

The so-called “Singularity” is a religious eschatology for irrational fanatics who have swapped faith in gods for faith in technocracy.  They want a god from a machine, a literal deus ex machina to save them from their own follies.



Dear Talking Monkeys:

Please get it through your thick primate skulls that you are alone in the universe, you are all going to die, there is no life beyond this world, and nothing whatsoever will remain of you if you do not safeguard your posterity.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

nobody, nowhere, of nothing
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