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Question: When ATH?
Nov. 2020 - 47 (36.2%)
Dec. 2020 - 43 (33.1%)
Jan. 2021 - 14 (10.8%)
Feb. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
Mar. 2021 - 5 (3.8%)
After Mar. 2021 - 16 (12.3%)
Total Voters: 130

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 24703585 times)
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goldkingcoiner
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September 08, 2020, 10:23:09 PM

Bitcoin going down again Sad  Oh well.
Also, real Defi: https://www.btctimes.com/news/lnmarkets-closes-pre-seed-to-build-bitcoin-derivatives-on-the-lightning-network

Has anyone here ever had lyme disease?
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Last of the V8s
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September 08, 2020, 10:36:20 PM

well now it's holding up. that would be real bullish  Undecided
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September 08, 2020, 10:50:57 PM

big fight for 10k
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September 08, 2020, 11:00:08 PM

I also think that too-rapid increases driven by pure speculation are not good.  That is the definition of a bubble.  I do not want another November–December 2017 scenario.  I am not watching the ticker and asking, “When moon?”  I want to see a new ATH driven by increased adoption and usage as money—not by FOMO, irrational exuberance, etc. ...

  I think the huge hype and price bubbles help to drive awareness and adoption.

More than the inevitable, inevitably painful correction drives people away?
  Yup.




First impressions count.  Think of all the people who caught the FOMO get-rich-quick virus in December 2017, and got shorn like the sheep that they are—who lost real money that meant something to them.  Are they ever coming back?  I’m not the first to suggest that that precious bull run set back mass adoption for years.

You're late and you wait, or you keep on hodling.  One is not shorn buying bitcoin; one is shorn by selling for less than one paid.  Ask JJG.  IIRC he started buying well up into the Nov '13 horrible dangerous bubble.  #stronghands



Bitcoin is king because it’s boring.  That is to say:  It is reliable.  Core uses solid, well-understood technologies, instead of chasing the latest fad.  Its developers say, “it’s done when it’s done”, not “move fast and break things”.  And as volatile as its market is, it is incomparably less so than most altcoins.

Sure. maybe now.

You can in good conscience tell your grandma to buy some Bitcoin. 

I did. She did.  More than 7 years ago ( Shocked wow time flies)  #noregrets


Not so much the back side of the peaks, but that is a lot easier to bear after a few rounds. There is actual data to research on past cycles now, for those that choose to dyor.

It’s easy to say “DYOR”.  Hard for the n00b who is stepping into an alien world, taking a risk—and oft as not, getting burned.  Whereas “DYOR” sounds suspiciously like the kinds of excuses tossed out by ICOs, Defi tokens, and other shitcoin scams.  LOL, you lost money believing in us—your fault, sucker! 

Again, you have to sell to regret in the long run.  I DID MOR.  There was fuck all that wasn't sketchy in 2012.  Thought I missed the boat in April 2013, but instead set myself up nicely for November 2013.   Nov 2017 was a long time coming, and I fully expect to ride the train again withing the next months  - 2 years.  With that many cycles in the books, as well and several alt runs, There is actually something to research now. 

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September 08, 2020, 11:01:29 PM

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.
explorer
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September 08, 2020, 11:19:38 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.


Maybe.  You might have to watch it in the rearview mirror though, if you blink.
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September 08, 2020, 11:23:26 PM

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.


once we reach it, it's done, though. Fomo starts.
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September 09, 2020, 12:04:47 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2020, 12:46:52 AM by Biodom


that's just something specific for one company...there is another news item: several other companies vaccines have to be maintained at -70C.
Regular medical clinics rarely have deep freezers like this and dry-ice packs cannot last long.
Imagine clinics injecting basically a placebo since the vaccine was in -20 for a few hours.
Patients would never know that this happened.
They are talking about "cold custody", but where would be the proof-in somebodies undecipherable writing?

IMHO, stay AWAY from any vaccine that required -70C.

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.


once we reach it, it's done, though. Fomo starts.

if we follow prior wiggles around ATH, it is likely that we would potentually burst to 22K before reversing to 16-18K, then another wiggle around 20K, then GO GO GO.

can't really focus on btc right now...too much RL.
gallianooo
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September 09, 2020, 12:41:56 AM

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.


Don't think so much. If we pass 20K, then discovery price.. so can be much faster than the 10K psychologic..
JayJuanGee
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September 09, 2020, 12:57:21 AM

First impressions count.  Think of all the people who caught the FOMO get-rich-quick virus in December 2017, and got shorn like the sheep that they are—who lost real money that meant something to them.  Are they ever coming back?  I’m not the first to suggest that that precious bull run set back mass adoption for years.

You're late and you wait, or you keep on hodling.  One is not shorn buying bitcoin; one is shorn by selling for less than one paid.  Ask JJG.  IIRC he started buying well up into the Nov '13 horrible dangerous bubble.  #stronghands

True.  I started buying at the high in November 2013, so that first BTC that I bought was not consistently profitable until around March/April 2017 - around 40 months (3 1/4 years) later.

There are probably NOT very many people who would inject everything into an asset at the top - or at least I had not taken that approach, so even though my first BTC cost my $1,200, by the time early 2017 came along, my average price per BTC (counting all my BTC purchases) was less than $500 per BTC - even though my sim port hack situation in early 2017, caused my average price per BTC to go up to about $750 per BTC.

Long term conviction helps.  Not investing more than you can afford to lose helps (which might be another way of saying willingness to ride the investment to zero).  It also helps that ultimately the underlying asset did go back up in price... both above my average price per BTC ($500/$700) and also above the price of the first purchase ($1,200) - even though DCA'ing would not have required for BTC to go back above that original $1,200 price in order for the average cost per BTC of my whole investment to have turned into a profitable status anywhere above $500 or alternatively above $750 (if counting the cost of the hack).


With that many cycles in the books, as well and several alt runs, There is actually something to research now.  

Helps to have been in bitcoin for a few of the cycles, as you suggested, explorer..   so being in bitcoin for a few cycles seems to give more options in terms of profitability... but also there is a track record, too.. as you also acknowledge.

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.

I suspect that $20k will be more like a knife through hot butter, as compared with $10k.

It's like the earlier cycle... there was more of a battle for $500 in late 2015 and early 2016 and $700 in mid and late 2016, than there was for $1,163 in early 2017.

big fight for 10k

The fight for 20k will be much bigger.


Maybe.  You might have to watch it in the rearview mirror though, if you blink.

That's what I am saying.
nullius
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September 09, 2020, 01:41:14 AM

Adapted from amidst a longer compound reply to Jay and explorer, which I may or may not have time to finish:

Not investing more than you can afford to lose helps (which might be another way of saying willingness to ride the investment to zero).

Have you ever seen anybody say, “Don’t put more money into dollars than you can afford to lose”?  (They should, but that’s not the point.)  Bitcoin cannot claim to be sound money, when it is marketed under this disclaimer.

Whereas Bitcoin’s only fundamental value is as money.  If it’s not sound money, then why bother?



Long term conviction helps.

I state the foregoing from a position of real long-term conviction:  If Bitcoin were to crash to zero, I would literally lack food.  I am effectually “all in” with Bitcoin, for ideological rather than financial reasons; and yet, some of the replies that I am getting here, especially what explorer said, are a little bit too close to “you don’t believe hard enough”.  It’s the kind of thing that draws mutters from rational people about a “cult-like mentality”, etc.  Well, I do have a Bitcult; but when it comes to serious discussion of Bitcoin’s fundamentals and long-term prospects, I neither drink Kool-Aid, nor hand it out.
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September 09, 2020, 01:50:13 AM


)'(

#dyor
1h



4h

#stronghands
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September 09, 2020, 02:19:51 AM

Adapted from amidst a longer compound reply to Jay and explorer, which I may or may not have time to finish:

Not investing more than you can afford to lose helps (which might be another way of saying willingness to ride the investment to zero).

Have you ever seen anybody say, “Don’t put more money into dollars than you can afford to lose”?  (They should, but that’s not the point.)  Bitcoin cannot claim to be sound money, when it is marketed under this disclaimer.

Whereas Bitcoin’s only fundamental value is as money.  If it’s not sound money, then why bother?


That's goofy-talk.

We do not go from less than 1% bitcoin adoption to world reserve currency status overnight.

If you want to invest 100% into bitcoin or take some other non-practical approach to bitcoin, then that is your choice.. you are likely going to get screwed here and there, because there are a variety of other assets and frequently it is helpful to be able to have other things that you are able to spend (such as fiat or various other ways of not having all your eggs in one volatile asset.   

I think it is better to go first steps first, which is get nocoiners off of zero, first.  99% of the world population owns absolutely no bitcoin.

You can make a shit ton of money by just having 10% of your value into bitcoin.

I see no reason to be attempting to push these matters onto people if they are not ready...

either they get it or they don't and the ones of us who recognize the matter of the value of bitcoin earlier are going to profit stupendously because we were able to see the value in bitcoin first and to act in the right direction, and we were also able to invest into it, before some of the dying dinosaurs like warren buffet or charles munger were able to recognize or appreciate the value...

We also saw the value in bitcoin instead of getting distracted by shitcoins.  A lot of folks are going to get distracted into shitcoins, and how you going to change that? I say, just let them fucking learn the hard way, just like a lot of us did.  They are NOT all of a sudden going to be bitcoin enlightened by having it forced upon them..  but they will eventually come to bitcoin, even if it takes one or two generation before the recognize the value of bitcoin over the various snakeoils that you are not going to stop.. and we do not even have the power to stop such snake oils whether we are referring to various shitcoins or various fiats and whatever other various other currency "innovations" that come in the coming years.
 



Long term conviction helps.

I state the foregoing from a position of real long-term conviction:  If Bitcoin were to crash to zero, I would literally lack food.  I am effectually “all in” with Bitcoin, for ideological rather than financial reasons;

Personally, I do not agree with that approach.  Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time.  It is one of those rare opportunities in life, and a lot of people have become rich as fuck by only having a reasonable amount in bitcoin and also having cash, too.

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck, if you are not somewhat allocated in cash too, and you also likely make yourself a target... but, hey, if you want to make yourself a target, that is up to you.

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).

and yet, some of the replies that I am getting here, especially what explorer said, are a little bit too close to “you don’t believe hard enough”.  

You do not need to convince any of us.

You should be protecting yourself though because none of us (or other random peeps on the internet) give any shits about you as much as you should be protecting yourself, psychologically and financially.


It’s the kind of thing that draws mutters from rational people about a “cult-like mentality”, etc.

Yes.  People are going to consider you a weirdo... It is much easier to get along in society by being able to communicate with others and to build bonds rather than appearing like a weirdo.

So there is a need for balance.  So if you go out on a date, it is good to have money in order that you can eat the steak dinner and to be able to convince the chick to come back to your pad.

 Well, I do have a Bitcult; but when it comes to serious discussion of Bitcoin’s fundamentals and long-term prospects, I neither drink Kool-Aid, nor hand it out.

Ultimately, it is your choice regarding what level of balance you believe is good for you and what works for you to be able to achieve your personal objectives.

Personally, I think that it is better to have some balance.  If you are earning income in fiat, then you figure out what level of balancer that you need to have in fiat and what level in bitcoin.

If you are earning in bitcoin, then you may have to cash into fiat from time to time.  No one should be forced to be cashing out of either one at a time that is not of their own choosing but if you have everything in bitcoin, then you are likely going to be causing your own emergency situations, unless you have figure out every single place to go to be able to spend your BTC for housing, utilities, food, transportation, entertainment (and hookers, lambos and blow).  Even if you are moderate with your consumption, you still likely having regular living needs that cause regular expenses.

If you do not have that, then maybe you need to explain your situation a bit better... because we should be attempt to discuss these bitcoin balancing matters in generally applicable ways for normies rather than fanatical ways or ways that are quite peculiar to some kinds of weird situations, in my humble bumble opinion. 
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September 09, 2020, 02:24:36 AM

https://mailchi.mp/83fd6ed702f3/martys-bent-september-8th-2020-819

Quote
For those who need a refresher, DLCs allow two or more parties to enter into a smart contract agreement regarding a future event. In the case of Nicolas and Chris, they are betting about the outcome of the US Election this year. However, they could have bet on the price of bitcoin on the same date, the outcome of an NBA game later this week, or the temperature in Boise next Wednesday at noon local time. The two construct multiple transactions that decide where the funds are sent; in this case there is a transaction that sends the funds to Chris and another that sends them to Nicolas depending on the outcome of the election. The movement of funds within the DLC is dependent on a signature from an Oracle that confirms the outcome of the event once it happens. The Oracle has no idea who is using their signature to execute DLCs unless users publicly state that they are. This allows individuals to make bets in private and for anyone who is so inclined to use a particular Oracle's signature. One signature for millions of bets is possible. Making DLCs scalable to the masses.

possibly the first one in the wild

That could be one way to have natively bitcoin-based DeFi, possibly on the Lightning Network. More of this is coming our way.
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September 09, 2020, 02:25:09 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2020, 02:41:19 AM by jbreher

The name should be changed to tangle.

From here on out, tangle should be the correct nomenclature for that formerly known as chain.

Unfortunately, the term 'tangle' is already understood to apply to an alternate crypto token database design that has no resemblance to a blockchain whatsoever.

You really think that Jay didn’t know this?

I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her directly?
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September 09, 2020, 02:46:13 AM

The name should be changed to tangle.

From here on out, tangle should be the correct nomenclature for that formerly known as chain.

Unfortunately, the term 'tangle' is already understood to apply to an alternate crypto token database design that has no resemblance to a blockchain whatsoever.

You really think that Jay didn’t know this?

I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her them* directly?

*alternatively "it"


FTFY
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September 09, 2020, 02:51:55 AM

We have gembitz and Proudhon posting. I think we can reasonably assume we're near the bottom. I would need to see r0ach posting to confirm.


Did I make it moon yet?

Quote
Cockroach drinking honeydew from rear end of a planthopper (Pyrops connectens). Khao Sok National Park, Thailand. [source]


No.

+1 WOsMerit however

------

a late night wall report

oh well..its Tuesday..what did you expect? 


coyote yips before dawn
D


the battle for five digits continues with weekly resistance high above at $10.45kish and support rising from low cloud cover at around $8.8k to $9k     #dyor
W

#stronghands
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September 09, 2020, 02:55:46 AM
Merited by goldkingcoiner (1)



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SwayStar123
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September 09, 2020, 03:20:17 AM

Looking at the funding it looks like we might have one last quick dump to take out the previous lows before having a pump (could be vertical for a while)

nullius
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September 09, 2020, 03:30:42 AM
Last edit: September 09, 2020, 04:11:43 AM by nullius

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck,

Heh.  Not the first time I’ve gotten that.  But then, I agree with this:

It is no measure of health to be well-adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

How’s this for what, from your perspective, Jay, would be a “crazy fuck”:  I have at various times spent several portions of my adult life voluntarily “unbanked”.  Cash-only.  On principle, because I hate the banks and I do not wish to associate with them, much less to depend on them.  Do I not have a right to choose not to have a goddamn bank account?  Yes, they have made it exceedingly difficult to live this way.

(And here, I was nearly drawn into professional finance as a lad... it’s been a long road...)

Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time. [...]

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).

Yes, I wish that with my current level of life experience, I could go back in time and tell my younger self some more general version of this—not only about Bitcoin!  I have consistently screwed myself over this way.  Much of that thing I didn’t post a few days ago had to do with that.

Quote from: nullius (DRAFT)
Most naïve youths lose their characteristic idealism in the moment that they catch the scent of money; I didn’t.  Instead of being pulled into the system, I went against it...  I sincerely never cared about money, until intense personal hardship beat into me the importance of having some; and at that point, it was too late to go back and spend wasted years differently.

As for the rest:  I see that you and I have some fundamental disagreements about economics.  It will take some thought to communicate my position sensibly in the context.  Meanwhile, I’ll just toss out the foregoing with the idle thought that it may help some idealist:  Make money.  Don’t stick your nose up at it:  “Generals think logistics”, and you can only paralyse yourself by lacking resources.  If you would get corrupted in the process of making money, then your precious principles are anyway too weak to sustain the hardships that you will undoubtedly endure for want of money.  Trust me, I know the cost.



I really don't know. I rather expect that JJG had no idea that 'tangle' refers to an alternative database structure as the basis of several altcoins. Why don't you ask him/her directly?

Hmmm...  Because to anyone who is not totally stupid, it’s obvious that he they/it [sorry, Jay, for offensive use of correct pronouns] knows?

Any other brilliant questions?

Given this level of incomprehension, it may not actually be incomprehensible for someone to misunderstand what will happen if miners try to steal Segwit coins.
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