Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nullius]

Main difference for me really is that I can trade with around 5x my balance while still only risking 1% while scalping, see for example if btc is at $10000 and my trade suggests a stoploss at $10020 and a take profit  at $9900, i have a 5:1 RRR here, but normally on spot exchanges id only be able to just sell my own btc and profit off of the difference, so id make a 5% profit on that, but on a perpetual swap i can borrow 5x my balance to sell, if my stoploss hits i still only lose 1%, but if my take profit hits i make 5% rather than just 1%

Ah, the joys of leverage.  So it seems that my inference was wrong.

Now, what really makes me curious is this:  Suppose that the price of X is a random walk.  I am not saying so about BTC, or any other existing asset:  I am contemplating a hypothetical asset X.

A random walk without drift is pretty much the canonical example of a (non-)trend that can’t be exploited:  It presents a straight gamble.  But it seems to me that if you can wager both ways at once as you describe—betting one way with your money, and betting the other way on leverage with other people’s money—then that would be ideal for exploiting a random walk.

Waving my hands a bit here (what type of random walk, etc.), say you somehow arrange it so that you have exactly 50% odds of hitting your stoploss before your profit take, 50% vice versa:  You thus have a 50% chance of losing 1%, and a 50% chance of gaining 5%.  It is EV+ gambling on 50/50 odds.

It seems that I must have made a mistake here (and if I didn’t, I had better get a margin account—which would mean “defi”, because I don’t do KYC, and I don’t know of any centralized exchanges that offer no-KYC margin accounts—sorry, Jay).  What gives?

[1607191528]

1607191528

[SwayStar123]

Waving my hands a bit here (what type of random walk, etc.), say you somehow arrange it so that you have exactly 50% odds of hitting your stoploss before your profit take, 50% vice versa:  You thus have a 50% chance of losing 1%, and a 50% chance of gaining 5%.  It is EV+ gambling on 50/50 odds.

EV+ gambling is all trading is, but goodluck getting a 5:1 RRR consistently lmao, you will mostly find 2-3 RRR trades

It seems that I must have made a mistake here

Thats no mistake, but trading isnt just that simple, theres alot of nuance to it, especially market manipulation which will rekt you if your not careful

(and if I didn’t, I had better get a margin account—which would mean “defi”, because I don’t do KYC, and I don’t know of any centralized exchanges that offer no-KYC margin accounts—sorry, Jay).  What gives?

Can i interest you in some bitcoin defi?
The margin interest is going to be around 0.7% per year compared to binance's 10%, so its a better choice even if you dont give a shit about KYC or decentralization

[nullius]

FYI, I ve found people don't like to hear uncomfortable truths but will eat up lies that make them feel safe.

Personal text checks out:

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

“Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States!”

Rule #1 in bitcoin:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ipy7le/rule_number_one_in_bitcoin/
[Image:  “Don’t tell people how much bitcoin you have”]

Good one.  Is the second rule, “Don’t brag about how Bitcoin bought you a Lambo”?

An insightful comment from the Reddit thread:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ipy7le/rule_number_one_in_bitcoin/g4qv6wv/

The better comparison is how much money is under your mattress, and if you advertise you have $10000 worth of BTC, then you should be comfortable telling people you have $10000 cash under your bed.

Having always kept my savings in cash before I had Bitcoin, that rings true.  Unfortunately, I think that many people nowadays are sufficiently foolish that they would brag about cash at home.  I have even seen people post photos of their gold and silver holdings on readily identifiable social media accounts, with faces in the picture (!).  Some people just ain’t so bright.

12! is only 479,001,600, easy for a computer to bruteforce search.

Ahahaha.... imagine spending 2-3 years in a row just if u lose one to introduce like 500K combinations. (Probably it will be worth it and the motivation would grow even higher when seeing the price rise!   )

That’s close to 500M permutations, not 500K.  And any desktop PC made in about the past ten years should be able to crunch through them all very quickly.

The words in a 24-word seed would have 620,448,401,733,239,439,360,000 permutations.  You won’t be bruteforcing that with a desktop PC—not even if you leave it running for a few years!

(N.b. that there is a slight flaw in what I said above:  Words in a seed phrase can repeat.  That will be relatively rare.  When your seed phrase has exactly n unique words, then the number of permutations will be n!.)

Edit: Probably developing your own software to interact with the wallet and introduce each combination would be more efficient. Also you can make a blockchain just for that! And basically you can use the network as an addon app to compute the missing numbers or letters with brute force!

Say what!?  (Why do people suppose that the word “blockchain” magically solves all problems?)

[JayJuanGee]

30 day return hits this lower range ore very close to it. It usually follows with by atleast a 20% pump.

From where is that chart?

[SwayStar123]

30 day return hits this lower range ore very close to it. It usually follows with by atleast a 20% pump.

From where is that chart?

https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1304042929506471942

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then? 

[bitebits]

12! is only 479,001,600, easy for a computer to bruteforce search.

Ahahaha.... imagine spending 2-3 years in a row just if u lose one to introduce like 500KM combinations. (Probably it will be worth it and the motivation would grow even higher when seeing the price rise!   )


Edit: Probably developing your own software to interact with the wallet and introduce each combination would be more efficient. Also you can make a blockchain just for that! And basically you can use the network as an addon app to compute the missing numbers or letters with brute force!

Talking about brute forcing some lost words from a seed. Often you see the maximum number of attempts required calculated. But you would have to check whether there is a balance as well after each attempt. That would make the brute forcing considerably slower right?

[Cryptotourist]

And here I thought that your secret agenda was to induce Woers subconsciously to fantasize about what if someone who is a stellar genius compared to proudhon were female.

I am not swayed by this conspiracy.

Our sordid affair is ongoing, so please stay tuned, and you will be perswayded.

But... but... your GIF violates social distancing rules!  That’s just cruel.

I'm a natural born human whore, I don't do distancing.

[JayJuanGee]

It seems that I must have made a mistake here

Thats no mistake, but trading isnt just that simple, theres alot of nuance to it, especially market manipulation which will rekt you if your not careful

Surely, I don't play around with margin, but I still kind of have some ideas about what experienced traders are attempting to accomplish in terms of attempting to assign probabilities to a certain amount of BTC price movement in a certain amount of time.

If the trader realistically assess the odds of a price move - yeah, sure a BIG "if" because frequently the assignment of odds is not very accurate, then such trader can play both sides of the anticipated BTC price direction.

So, for example, if the payoff for betting correctly is 5%, but the loss of betting incorrectly is 1%, but the odds of getting the 5% is 2/5 because the trader has good predictive skills and is able to hit with that level of precision, then surely if the trader has assessed the odds correctly, then largely in the long term for every 5 times that the trader plays those odds, s/he will get 5% twice, and s/he will lose 1% three times, which seems to be decent profits of somewhere in the ballpark of 7% from those 5 trades.

Yeah, I understand that the odds are never going to be that clear to assess, so in that regard, the devil is in the details, because usually the odds are not going to be so easy to figure out.  Accordingly, the more success that a trader has in being able to establish the price direction with confidence, then the more that s/he can reach goals of getting the payouts that offset the losses.. we can tweak the numbers around of the hypothetical, but getting the profits to outweigh the losses seems to be the general idea, and of course, if there are are also some possibilities that from time to time the BTC price will run way greater than the 5% payout, causing the trader to get even greater payouts than 5% from time to time, but the same is true in the opposite direction of incurring more losses than expected, but the hypothetical is attempting to even out those scenarios in a kind of average expected payout that would be profitable in the long run so long as the profits are exceeding the losses.

Also, some traders roll their profits into their trading stash, and other traders will take some profits off the table on a regular basis in order to use for living expenses or just to stack away some of their profits.  

30 day return hits this lower range ore very close to it. It usually follows with by atleast a 20% pump.

From where is that chart?

https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1304042929506471942

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?  

I do personally believe that there are several members who should work on making sure that they are giving proper attributions in terms of making sure that the words ideas of someone else are not appearing to be being claimed as their own.

It does seem that in Paashaas's case above, he was quoting someone else.. especially the chart, and he just failed to give proper attributions.  I would not consider that to quite rise to the level of plagiarism, but sure of course, admins/mods might consider those boundaries differently, so it is usually better for members to ongoingly attempt to be giving proper attributions in order NOT to be accused of plagiarism..... even if they just made an unintentional slip up, which seems to be the case of Paashaas...

[Toxic2040]

Contaminating your vital fluids, are they?

Yes.

+1 WOsMerit




---------

hey jjg

f-off   

its almost friday




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the late night wall report


#dyor
4h


D

#stronghands




 

[nullius]

EV+ gambling is all trading is,

The “EV+” part is arguable. :-)

Can i interest you in some bitcoin defi?
The margin interest is going to be around 0.7% per year compared to binance's 10%, so its a better choice even if you dont give a shit about KYC or decentralization

Sure, I’m interested—if it’s private, secure, and reliable and if 0.7%/year margin interest isn’t too good to be true.

I saw you drop that link a few days ago.  The thread seemed long on hype and short on details of how it actually works; I stopped reading after
ZmnSCPxj’s very thoughtful post, which appears to be unanswered.  (Both ZmnSCPxj and gmaxwell, who +5ed that, know what the fuck they are talking about.)  I was going to ask something along the lines of, why not use or build toward the upcoming Spectrum project (Layer 3 smart-contract platform built on Lightning Network and RGB, with Simplicity as the formally verifiable smart contract language—and the privacy advantages of an off-chain protocol!), but didn’t bother.

I just went through the thread again, and peeked at the Github link (but see as yet no reason to spend time and effort trying to understand their code).

You seem interested in promoting that for some reason.  I would suggest that if you want to gain people’s trust, do fewer manifestos (preaching to the choir here) and more informative explanations about just how this works, what useful properties the system has, and why it should be trusted to not fail catastrophically.  Answering ZmnSCPxj’s post would probably be a good start.  (No, I don’t know him—but I have learned something new from almost every one of his posts that I’ve ever read on bitcoin-dev.)

Edit:  I followed up there.

[JayJuanGee]

---------

hey jjg

f-off   

its almost friday

It is too late, toxicmoxic.   





Protip:  We (the royal we, of course) use universal time in these here parts.   


Sucks to be you  too late.... with what could have been a great idea....     


 

[Paashaas]

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then? 

Are you blind? You can see the credits in the image.

even if they just made an unintentional slip up, which seems to be the case of Paashaas...

My excuses, i'll add the link next time it will save time for clicker lovers.

[SwayStar123]

Are you blind? You can see the credits in the image.

No that watermark is the only reason i even found the original link, but most people wouldnt notice it, especially when the image is so small on bitcointalk and the watermark is very light

[SwayStar123]

You seem interested in promoting that for some reason.  I would suggest that if you want to gain people’s trust, do fewer manifestos (preaching to the choir here) and more informative explanations about just how this works, what useful properties the system has, and why it should be trusted to not fail catastrophically.  Answering ZmnSCPxj’s post would probably be a good start.  (No, I don’t know him—but I have learned something new from almost every one of his posts that I’ve ever read on bitcoin-dev.)
Edit:  I followed up there.

I just think its really cool lmao, im not part of the development team, i might help them a bit with marketing tho, i think they definitely deserve more recognition, I found the litepaper on this if that solves any of your questions- https://medium.com/sovryn/sovryn-litepaper-v0-1-d3e2bdd2dbdd

as for the failure part, i imagine theres gonna be audits, but I cant really assure you on anything since im not a programmer

[El duderino_]

40% can program a bit, 30% works in finance. Target audience of my tweets is only 12%

Must be difficult for the 43% to understand key financial topics (CAPM, B&S, QE, NIRP, UBI) and key bitcoin elements (P2P, ECDSA, POW, SHA) .. and why BTC is such a unique & important invention
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1304124701531402240?s=21

This is exactly why bitcoin is so undervalued. Most financial managers don't get the tech and most tech people have no monetary knowledge.

Huge opportunities for people who get both.
https://twitter.com/gkboris/status/1304125814120820736?s=21

My point exactly! I know brilliant financial people who dont even take the effort of reading the white paper. And great programmers who know nothing about money and investing. I wrestle with that!
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1304127438583140357?s=21

[VB1001]

I'm a natural born human whore, I don't do distancing.

Ha, ha, you got a short circuit in your brain, Hero,  incoming, congrats

[Last of the V8s]

following on from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55140469#msg55140469

https://twitter.com/BVBTC/status/1304204057448460295?s=20



https://www.knowyourhashrate.com/

need to decentralise mining pools. right fucking now

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-August/014893.html

https://utxos.org/uses/miningpools/

Betterhash is half way there, second layers like Lightning improve the scalability of old concepts like P2Pool, and if we get it in script OP_CTV enables whole new option regarding decentralizing the coordination for pooled mining trustlessly.

https://twitter.com/brian_trollz/status/1304226468587855874?s=20

[hv_]

30 day return hits this lower range ore very close to it. It usually follows with by atleast a 20% pump.

From where is that chart?

https://twitter.com/nsquaredcrypto/status/1304042929506471942

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then? 

All good, except bad aussie man does such

[nullius]

So, for example, if the payoff for betting correctly is 5%, but the loss of betting incorrectly is 1%, but the odds of getting the 5% is 2/5 because the trader has good predictive skills and is able to hit with that level of precision, then surely if the trader has assessed the odds correctly, then largely in the long term for every 5 times that the trader plays those odds, s/he will get 5% twice, and s/he will lose 1% three times, which seems to be decent profits of somewhere in the ballpark of 7% from those 5 trades.

Jay, let’s take this as scientific gambling:  Pop those numbers into the Kelly criterion!

If I believed that SwayStar could reliably gain 5% on even close to 40/60 odds (acknowledging that that’s just your off-the-cuff example probability, not what she claimed) versus 1% losses, then I would practically beg her to let me send her all of my money right now, on agreement to let her keep half the profit (or hell, even most of it) as a management fee—just keep hitting those trades!  Because I would get rich quick that way.

Really, do a little back-of-the-envelope calculation.  Geometric growth (what Kelly addresses) is funny.  “Turn 0.005 BTC into 1 BTC” kind of funny, and more.

Of course, I’m not exactly doing that.  Just call me a skeptic.

If the trader realistically assess the odds of a price move - yeah, sure a BIG "if" because frequently the assignment of odds is not very accurate, [...]

Yeah, I understand that the odds are never going to be that clear to assess, so in that regard, the devil is in the details, because usually the odds are not going to be so easy to figure out.

Yeah... about that...

Also, some traders roll their profits into their trading stash, and other traders will take some profits off the table on a regular basis in order to use for living expenses or just to stack away some of their profits.

If you could be certain of the odds, and if the odds are EV+, Kelly bets that roll profits back into the pot are, of course, mathematically optimal for growth in the sense of “I no longer care what the market does, because my portfolio already went to the moon”.  Confirmed science, lulz.  (Hey, there’s that “IF” again.)

p.s. find it weird how paashaas posted the chart here without any credit and basically even copied the text, is this considered plagiarism then?  

I do personally believe that there are several members who should work on making sure that they are giving proper attributions in terms of making sure that the words ideas of someone else are not appearing to be being claimed as their own.

There is certainly a difference between plagiarism and improper attribution.  I could quote some academic integrity discussions on that, but then, you know, I’d need to attribute them, and I am just too lazy for that right now.

Protip:  We (the royal we, of course) use universal time in these here parts.  

UTC is the Internet anonymity time zone.

I just think its really cool lmao, im not part of the development team, i might help them a bit with marketing tho,

Check out RGB/Spectrum.  It’s still in the relatively early stages, but seems to have competent people involved; and IIUC, it’s being backed somehow (?) by Tether people.  (I would guess that somebody is probably sick and tired of running on a network cries out in pain from the load of all the USDT flying around.)

Our sordid affair is ongoing, so please stay tuned, and you will be perswayded.

I think that I already am.  Did you hear?  SwayStar is going to make me rich!

~

Hero

I did a double-take when I saw Sr. with 500 merits due to slow server update.  Nice move.

[SwayStar123]

@nullius you can indeed become rich but after around 200k contracts slippage and stophunting absolutely wreck my strategy so its gonna slow down from there, so i would be in no place to accept anyones money either way lmao.

and its not usually actually 5:1 odds, i just gave that as example, in real life itd be much more slower and safer if i was trading with a significant amount of money than what i showed in that challenge thread