Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

Early days, but looking good so far. Nice reaction on 4hr from re-testing 200 Day MA at $19.7K. Personally this was always the key to turning $19K to $20K into new support after 50 & 200 DMA golden cross.

If there was no immediate reaction around this price range, I'd be genuinely concerned that we go much lower, but so far all panning out as expected imo (most likely outcome).





Finding buyers under $20K? ✅ Boncing from 200 Day MA? ✅ Bouncing from 0.382 fib ✅ Bouncing from 20 Week MA ✅

[Gachapin]

Nothing changed
https://twitter.com/888Velvet/status/1634180495792656384



if it holds, we will be in a better place by end of '23

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:

- In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

- As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.

- 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.

- The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.

- This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.

- However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.

https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752




....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

[BitcoinBunny]

[BitcoinBunny]

I'm still struggling with my dads ilnesses. Too bad that Bitcoin is crashing and I have no comfort in it. I'm spending like crazy these months for everything that I want. It is just a mood I've never been before. I know that the price is good for buying, but I'm deep under water regarding monthly fiat income. I will keep my main stash intact, only spending what I need to buy something. And "need" is a strong word. For example why on earth I decided to buy Meta Quest 2 VR only to play Star Wars Squadrons, provided I had the game for 2 years and barely played it? And why I bought apple airpods 1 (real) and 2 (fake) only to decide to buy pro 2 (real). I don't even have iphone or ipad to use them properly. I'm a fan of Samsung - with Galaxy tab s7+ and s23 ultra recently bought, I'm quite satisfied.

tl;sr. May be later this year the DCA mood will return again, but not now.

Sending best wishes to your dad.


Only buy what you need. Don't look at what others have or what they tell you to buy. Forget about the whole "this product will give you that lifestyle etc." It's all a load of BS.


Maybe it's an age thing but what I've been doing...

I'm still driving my 7 year old car, it should have plenty of life left.
Sure I wanted a Tesla in the past but there is no need for one, only a massive monthly bill and will only complicate my driving, I still pull away at traffic lights faster than almost anyone else with my old vehicle, thus I don't need a Musk car.

I'm still using my 7 year old 1080p projector with surround system I got at the time. Only recently changed the stock bulb for the first time. A minimal cost.
Sure I'd love a massive 8K LG Oled but it will only cause lots of problems I reckon and is an enormous cost and my screen size would in fact be reduced. Most of the movies I've seen in the cinema were never 4K (mostly 2K I believe) and isn't OLED either, so who the F cares anyway. The projector I have you can buy on eBay for less than £500.
I massively enjoyed Stranger Things recently. I'd watch it again. Still enjoy some older games, new tracks on Mario Kart 8.

I spent £120 on a Marshall Major IV bluetooth headset last year. Best headphones I've owned. When charged they last for hours and hours. Clearer than Beyerdynamic DT 770 80 Ohm I've owned for years.
Amazing value. I don't care how it looks when I'm walking through town. In ear headphones suck donkey balls in my opinion. Can't hear a thing.

The Meta Quest 2 VR looked good but I must admit I got quite bored with VR on a cheap Oculus Go after 4-6 months and that was with the best quality VR Porn available to mankind. I doubt ANYTHING else would want me to put on a headset on a more regular basis.
Anyone curious should try it but again it's just not going to be lifestyle changing at all I would say.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Well well well, when the Fed raises the cost for start ups and corporations to borrow cheap debt, stocks crash, people get laid off en masse, and the world economies go to shit.

Oh my, who woulda thunk it? <picachuface.jpg>  

It's almost like...the world economies' corporations are completely subsidized now because they can't make a profit anymore? Who knew? /s

[Torque]

The Meta Quest 2 VR looked good but I must admit I got quite bored with VR on a cheap Oculus Go after 4-6 months and that was with the best quality VR Porn available to mankind. I doubt ANYTHING else would want me to put on a headset on a more regular basis.
Anyone curious should try it but again it's just not going to be lifestyle changing at all I would say.

IMO, VR and VR games are the most over-hyped "next big thing" going today. (well, next to folding screen smartphones anyway)

I imagine that a lot of people get FOMO'ed into buying the expensive VR gear, setting it up, play a few games a few times, and then after all the newness hype wears off....the gear sits gathering dust in the corner, as they go back to playing regular console or PC games again. Then eventually they sell their gear on EBay at a loss.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Of course it will shatter the hopes of many long term hodlers as well...  but we know, badger don't give a fuck about our feeewlings 

wut?

long term hodlers dont use hope as a stratagy.  we know how good the corn is and have proved it.. or we would not hodle through ~70k with a relaxed smile.

[jojo69]

[Biodom]

An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:

- In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

- As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.

- 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.

- The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.

- This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.

- However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.

https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752




....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

you misunderstood, sorry.
It is just that moron bank (and maybe many more) used large cash deposits from "smart" investors taking profits at the end of 2021 to purchase some bonds (MBS) that had long duration, but tiny yield.
Because yield is now much higher, those bonds were at a loss on their books.

Bottom line: if you have 10/1 loans to deposits ratio, your "book" would be screwed with a fast move in interest rates.
personally, i think that Silvergate/SIVB is something like hedge funds blowup in Jan-Feb 2007.
Then a "Bear" and then "Lehman"...maybe not to the same degree, but enough to do some "damage".

Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with this, it's just being thrown out "because crypto" kind of Wall Street thinking.
Smart money accumulates.

[Gachapin]

Of course it will shatter the hopes of many long term hodlers as well...  but we know, badger don't give a fuck about our feeewlings 

wut?

long term hodlers dont use hope as a stratagy.  we know how good the corn is and have proved it.. or we would not hodle through ~70k with a relaxed smile.

ok then... let's call it expectations instead of hope...  expectations that the rest of the world catches on...

hodling my 3. bear.  relaxation: agreed.  but smiling?  not really. still too annoyed by leveraged bottom sellers

[Gachapin]

An explainer on what is going on with Silicon Valley Bank:

- In 2021 SVB saw a mass influx in deposits, which jumped from $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

- As deposits grew, SVB could not grow their loan book fast enough to generate the yield they wanted to see on this capital. As a result, they purchased a large amount (over $80bn!) in mortgage backed securities (MBS) with these deposits for their hold-to-maturity (HTM) portfolio.

- 97% of these MBS were 10+ year duration, with a weighted average yield of 1.56%.

- The issue is that as the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and continued to do so through 2023, the value of SVB’s MBS plummeted. This is because investors can now purchase long-duration "risk-free" bonds from the Fed at a 2.5x higher yield.

- This is not a liquidity issue as long as SVB maintains their deposits, since these securities will pay out more than they cost eventually.

- However, yesterday afternoon, SVB announced that they had sold $21bn of their Available For Sale (AFS) securities at a $1.8bn loss, and were raising another $2.25bn in equity and debt. This came as a surprise to investors, who were under the impression that SVB had enough liquidity to avoid selling their AFS portfolio.

https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752




....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

you misunderstood, sorry.
It is just that moron bank (and maybe many more) used large cash deposits from "smart" investors taking profits at the end of 2021 to purchase some bonds (MBS) that had long duration, but tiny yield.
Because yield is now much higher, those bonds were at a loss on their books.

Bottom line: if you have 10/1 loans to deposits ratio, your "book" would be screwed with a fast move in interest rates.
personally, i think that Sivergate/SIVB is something like hedge funds blowup in Jan-Feb 2007.
Then a "Bear" and then "Lehman"...maybe not to the same degree, but enough to do some "damage".

Bitcoin has NOTHING to do with this, it's just being thrown out "because crypto" kind of Wall Street thinking.
Smart money accumulates.

Don't apologize. Thanks for explaining.

I see.. it's their books. but still, wasn't their problem the increase of yield in bonds that philip has been indirectly talking about, when he was cheering for i-bonds?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

SIVB-receivership?? Wow
two days ago the stock was $268, yesterday $108, now halted with news of possible sell and it currently being placed in receivership.
This is faster than Bear went down in 2007.
Let me guess: $2/share?

EDIT: this is an important bank for venture caps, had 175 bil(!) deposits at the end of December.

people REALLY should put money in bitcoin (not a financial advice).
 

[Richy_T]

When the whales mega short, they just love to follow up the FUD with a big dip below what they think are major psychological numbers.

Yep. Wait for some bad news, knock it down then squash any recoveries. Finish up with buying cheap coins.

I don't know about glass hands, it seems like people have banana pudding hands. How long until 2024?

[BobLawblaw]

Stay calm and hodl with conviction, folks.

[Richy_T]

At least we can party like it's 19.99