(Closed) Butter Bot!: Premier Bitstamp, and BTC-E EMA Trading Platform (Closed)

[fible1]

Refund has been issued, it took me a few minutes since Xorred bought a few hours ago and those purchases hadn't made it into the logs.

Pablo.

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[jbssm]

I get that some people prefer to accumulate BTC over USD.  That said, I don't understand why those people keep harping in this thread.  Some of us prefer to make USD.  We're happy.

That's not the issue. The issue is that many people don't understand that when they start using this bot, because the backtesting is made in a way that it makes you think this bot is fantastic and gives you huge profits by only showing the USD amounts.

You are actually accumulating much more USD over BTC if you just don't use the bot. In the even of a market downward trend, guess what, this bot would not only not make any profit, but it would take your money away even faster.

People fiddling with the numbers to get real profit in BTC-e, just understand that just works exactly in BTC-e and in the past, because it's a recent trader which had low volume when you check the 1 year backtesting. Don't you really wonder why you can't do the same in MTGox of Bitstamp? And don't you really wonder why is that that the setting that give up profit in a 1 year frame, give you losses in a 30 or 90 days one?

[madpoet]

If I bought 1 BTC and held it how am I making more than when I bought 1, sold for a profit, bought back but even more on a dip, sold more at a profit, etc;  Buy and hold only makes more if you are never buying back on a dip.  Which isn't whats going on here

[jbssm]

If I bought 1 BTC and held it how am I making more than when I bought 1, sold for a profit, bought back but even more on a dip, sold more at a profit, etc;  Buy and hold only makes more if you are never buying back on a dip.  Which isn't whats going on here

Great, then according to what you just said, why is using this bot better than buying a BTC today, then selling part of it next week, and so on and so on?

[madpoet]

Because I don't have to sit in front of my PC waiting for the EMA lines to cross.  If you believe in the EMA strategy (and forget your btc-e argument there is plenty of historical evidence on all 3 exchanges) then its an easy way to do it.

[shapemaker]

I don't know actually what to make of the "predictions" of the backtesting engine. On both BTC-e and Gox I've managed to cook up the following (per exchange) settings:

	1wk	1m	3m	6m	1y
Gox	67%	347%	616%	435%	1739%
BTC-e	82%	352%	636%	424%	4063%

Am I just doing curve fitting? It would seem that the longer the time frame, the less effective curve fitting would be. I'm hesitant to believe the results could be even half this good, so what am I missing? Volatile times of course make for great opportunities...

I've traded alongside the bot now for a week, but I still don't trust it since this volatility seems to throw the EMA off, but maybe I'm looking at too small time frames. I guess I'm just looking at input from others so I could skip staring at the charts all day, trying to catch the waves

edit: While the bot turned a $1.1k investment in BTC-e to 1.4k in a week, in the same time on Gox manual trading yielded from 12k to 20k results (which is pretty bad considering how volatile the market's been), but I've not been sitting at the 'puter all day...

[jbssm]

Because I don't have to sit in front of my PC waiting for the EMA lines to cross.  If you believe in the EMA strategy (and forget your btc-e argument there is plenty of historical evidence on all 3 exchanges) then its an easy way to do it.

But why do you need to wait for EMA to cross? Just sell part of your BTC at any random time, and that actually wields greater profit than using this bot.

Please show me that historical evidence. In fact, even easier, please show me any setting that works better than buy and hold in all time frames in Mtgox. I'm willing to send you 1 BTC if you do.

[madpoet]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense   Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

[jbssm]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense   Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

[fible1]

Hey Guys ,
   I think it's important to understand that Butter makes USD in an uptrend and BTC in a downtrend. That’s just the nature of the EMA strategy. We had some discussions on this early on but I think it's worth mentioning again that the thread has grown, I will probably put this in a couple of places of prominence to make it clearer.

Pablo.

[shapemaker]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense   Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

[jbssm]

Hey Guys ,
   I think it's important to understand that Butter makes USD in an uptrend and BTC in a downtrend. That’s just the nature of the EMA strategy. We had some discussions on this early on but I think it's worth mentioning again that the thread has grown, I will probably put this in a couple of places of prominence to make it clearer.

Pablo.

No, the market makes USD in an uptrend and the market makes BTC in a downtrend, this has nothing to do with the bot, those are the simple laws of the market.

It's annoying that you are always avoiding the subject, claiming some "magic" settings that give profit (that you never post except in some specific timeframe of BTC-e) be straight about you product and let people know that it will cost them profit under the current and past market conditions in exchange for the security of knowing they will never be totally out of USD in case of some major market crash.

That is what you product does, your product doesn't do the 4000% profit you claim, bitcoin does those 4000% by itself.

[jbssm]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense  Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

Feel free to read my question that was quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL the backtest timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

[fible1]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense  Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

Feel free to read my question that is quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

I think we've been quite clear that EMA is a long term strategy; so asking for settings that work in all time frames doesn't make sense. In the short term trades are pretty random (be they profit or loss), this has to do with the fact that trades in any strategy have to be looked at in aggregate (Think of the Law of Large Numbers). One trade or two trades or even ten trades don't mean much in any strategy.

You can see this in the back testing engine, if you back test 1 week, your results will change day to day from profit to loss, etc. If you back test 6 months to a year you will see pretty steady results (be they profit or loss they will remain so with the same settings over the long term).

I don't claim there are magic settings that work in all time frames, as a matter of fact, I have been pretty adamant that EMA trades, like all strategies, need to be looked at in aggregate over the long term. Do you want a real in depth discussion of this point and of EMA as applied to Bitcoin in general?

Please see here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

Butter is heavily based on Gomboo's principles, there you find an educated discussion on the mathematics and principles of EMA trading beyond what we can provide here.

I hope that helps :=).

Pablo.

[Stingery64]

people who say "i dont care about bitcoin, i like to make dollars"  are just wrong, they do not realise that making bitcoins equals to make MUCH more dollars.
than just "make dollars" due the fact price rises.
fible1 you are always writing in a very amiable behaviour, traying to response all people and giving good support,

i never said nothing but i started with 1btc time ago and i already loosed nearly half of it, i end up forced to stop using it and trying to catch
trends manually, buying manually at any non greedy price, to slowly get back my money

thats why i really really think you should backtest the strategy proposed, becuase make dollars in a up trend, and btc's in a down trend makes no sense
because to make btc's the down trend must be really huge
and to make dollars bot doesn't need to make anything but wait.

if we asume as we should, that btc will always go over time, we must focus into profit at any trade to get bitcoins, if 60% of the trades are lossing trades
the bot is just badly tweaked,

really hope you test the strategy proposed,  lets make this bot something configurable that worth to pay


cheers

[fluxist]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense  Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

https://i.imgur.com/uecWPx1.jpg?1

Feel free to read my question that was quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL the backtest timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

Is this offer open to everyone?
My settings yield a real BTC increase on every time frame on BTC-e, my preferred exchange.
2x BTC increase after 1 year.

I hear a lot of confusion in his thread about how EMA trading works. This may not be a strategy for most newbies...
With half-automated trading (I manually exit the short position) I'm up 20% in BTC the past two weeks. Again, YMMV

[shapemaker]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense   Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

Feel free to read my question that is quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL the backtest timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

I demonstrated a working setting for the longest available timeframe, which yields more in fiat and BTC than buy and hold. This alone demonstrates your argument is on shaky ground. You also seem to have problems understanding the whole EMA "strategy".

However, the same settings also work for 1 year ($7827 > $6394). Feel free to do the rest yourself, it's clear by now you're gonna just nitpick your way out of paying.

[jbssm]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense  Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

Feel free to read my question that is quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

I think we've been quite clear that EMA is a long term strategy; so asking for settings that work in all time frames doesn't make sense. In the short term trades are pretty random (be they profit or loss), this has to do with the fact that trades in any strategy have to be looked at in aggregate (Think of the Law of Large Numbers). One trade or two trades or even ten trades don't mean much in any strategy.

You can see this in the back testing engine, if you back test 1 week, your results will change day to day from profit to loss, etc. If you back test 6 months to a year you will see pretty steady results (be they profit or loss they will remain so with the same settings over the long term).

I don't claim there are magic settings that work in all time frames, as a matter of fact, I have been pretty adamant that EMA trades, like all strategies, need to be looked at in aggregate over the long term. Do you want a real in depth discussion of this point and of EMA as applied to Bitcoin in general?

Please see here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0

Butter is heavily based on Gomboo's principles, there you find an educated discussion on the mathematics and principles of EMA trading beyond what we can provide here.

I hope that helps :=).

Pablo.

That's not the issue. The issue is that since you don't provide custom dates to test the strategy then the only option is to ask for a setting that works for different dates in you backtesting.
If you did, it would be obvious that you couldn't find one setting that worked for the 1st 6 months (I hope 6 months are long term enough for you) of an year and for the last 6 months of the year. The settings would be different in those 2 periods of 6 months and that defeats the purpose of the bot.

Those setting don't exist and I know it because like some user suggested I downloaded the data from the bitcoins charts site and I was testing it, and guess what... what every trader in the financial market knows... there are no EMA (SMA, WMA) crossing strategies that improve your shares capitalization in different time periods.

So please don't tell us this long term strategy buzzword as an excuse, cause you are just using it to mistaken the people.

[Stingery64]

shapemaker

(42.85 > 39.76)  ?

honestly, you find a bot its working if you get in 2 LONG years a profit of 7% ? and thas just becuase you found some configuration that worked in the past,
that means nothing as price rised a lot,

jbssm is quite right in my opinion,

bot just need a trading engine,

[jbssm]

Huh?  You want me to prove that selling at a random time isn't better than what the bot does?  That doesn't even remotely make sense  Done arguing, the math to me is pretty easy.  And since I'm up a few hundred bucks over the last few days, I'm good.

No, no, that part was a supposition, what I want you to prove is your statement that the BOT actually wields profit like you said. So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC.
Pretty simple.

Here's one that yields more BTC over 2 years (the max time frame). Buy in was at 2.515 dollars each, so 100/2.515 = 39.76 BTC for $100.

Holding that 39.76 BTC for 2 years, then selling for $800 yields $31809. The bot manages $34287 in the same time, which also obviously is more in BTC (42.85 > 39.76). QED.

Feel free to send my BTC to the address in my sig.

Feel free to read my question that is quite correctly worded.
Post some settings that make BTC profit in ALL the backtest timeframes of Gox and you get your 1BTC.

If you fiddle with the past numbers you can always find one case where it works, thats easy and... doesn't mean absolutely nothing.

I demonstrated a working setting for the longest available timeframe, which yields more in fiat and BTC than buy and hold. This alone demonstrates your argument is on shaky ground.

However, the same settings also work for 1 year ($7827 > $6394). Feel free to do the rest yourself, it's clear by now you're gonna just nitpick your way out of paying.

Nitpick... please learn how to read: "So, yeah, just post an example for MtGox that works in all time frame and I'll send you 1BTC."

There is no shaky ground here, and you know very well the setting you posted doesn't work for the other time frames... you are the one nitpicking what you choose to post in order to avoid the argument I expressed and that you realized can't actually refute it with any numbers.