|
Vexual
|
 |
September 12, 2013, 06:35:00 AM |
|
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?
|
1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
Vycid
Sr. Member
 Offline
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:41:24 AM |
|
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?
Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target. I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength. 30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry. 20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there. |
|
|
|
|
supert
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:43:06 AM |
|
So, Vycid, have you exercised your puts yet or are you waiting still?
I've got some 3.2 puts expiring in a month that I'm unsure of whether I should exercise now or wait a bit longer.
If you exercise early you lose the optionality-value. Better for you to hedge by buying some stock (which you can sell at expiry to the option writer). Look up delta hedging. Or sell them, but not sure btct allows that. |
|
|
|
|
Vycid
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:43:49 AM |
|
So, Vycid, have you exercised your puts yet or are you waiting still?
I've got some 3.2 puts expiring in a month that I'm unsure of whether I should exercise now or wait a bit longer.
If you exercise early you lose the optionality-value. Better for you to hedge by buying some stock (which you can sell at expiry to the option writer). Look up delta hedging. Or sell them, but not sure btct allows that. It's allowed. Better to reclaim the black-scholes implied value by selling. |
|
|
|
|
JimiQ84
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:48:02 AM |
|
you somehow managed to forget that market cap of company includes also know-how and physical assets (routers, PSUs, machines included in ASIC manufacturing process)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vexual
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:48:07 AM |
|
Also note for your calculations that Friedcat said (I'm pretty sure) he was aiming for 10%, when he was at 20%, the idea of maintaining that kinda stuck in forum members brains. You know how it goes.
|
1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
|
|
|
Vycid
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:49:20 AM |
|
Also note for your calculations that Friedcat said (I'm pretty sure) he was aiming for 10%, when he was at 20%, the idea of maintaining that kinda stuck in forum members brains. You know how it goes.
Friedcat is going to beat 10%. He's the under-promise, over-deliver type. |
|
|
|
|
Vexual
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:50:22 AM |
|
you somehow managed to forget that market cap of company includes also know-how and physical assets (routers, PSUs, machines included in ASIC manufacturing process)
That might be something more like Enterprise Value |
1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
|
|
|
|
Vexual
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:50:49 AM |
|
Friedcat is going to beat 10%. He's the under-promise, over-deliver type.
 |
1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
|
|
|
Vycid
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:52:27 AM |
|
you somehow managed to forget that market cap of company includes also know-how and physical assets (routers, PSUs, machines included in ASIC manufacturing process)
Uh, no, the market cap includes no such things. It is the product of the share price and the number of shares outstanding. The sum of ten years forward of profit is generally an excellent rule of thumb for a fair market cap. In most industries 10 years forward is hard to estimate, even for mature companies. Mining has unusual constraints and it is much, much easier to come up with a 10 year projection. |
|
|
|
|
Vexual
|
|
September 12, 2013, 06:56:41 AM |
|
Don't overestimate the similarities between a hole in the ground and crunching blocks.
|
1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
|
|
|
Vycid
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
|
|
September 12, 2013, 07:00:52 AM
Last edit: September 12, 2013, 07:10:53 AM by Vycid |
|
Don't overestimate the similarities between a hole in the ground and crunching blocks.
I'm not sure what you mean... they are indeed very different. There's no ( practical) limit on the amount of gold you can pull out of the ground, as long as the price is high enough to justify the money you're spending to do it. Bitcoin mining has an absolute, immutable limit (plus tx fees, and I have explained why I believe are reasonable to ignore). Expanding the business is just trying to take market share from your competition, unlike opening a new mine. Attempting to expand has the side-effect of reducing profit margins for everyone. Also, gold mining is unambiguously legal. We shall see what kind of regulation BTC mining gets. |
|
|
|
|
Vexual
|
|
September 12, 2013, 07:04:46 AM |
|
Well if you were just talking about bitcoin mining, and 10 year projections, you're brave.
|
1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
|
|
|
Vycid
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
|
|
September 12, 2013, 07:09:01 AM |
|
Well if you were just talking about bitcoin mining, and 10 year projections, you're brave.
So brave. |
|
|
|
|
Vexual
|
|
September 12, 2013, 07:23:58 AM |
|
I think your estimates on profit margins are a bit off. 75% leaves something in the order of US5mil outgoing first year. Sounds high to me.
|
1VEX7x76pJdreV1nJW8bXpotbCNggDxG5
|
|
|
|
VeeMiner
|
|
September 12, 2013, 09:01:51 AM |
|
This hashrate decrease is beginning to worry me...
|
|
|
|
|
|
bbxx
|
|
September 12, 2013, 09:05:43 AM |
|
This hashrate decrease is beginning to worry me...
that means friedcat is replacing hardware or changing farm location... |
|
|
|
|
|
BitCsByBit
|
|
September 12, 2013, 09:06:28 AM |
|
This hashrate decrease is beginning to worry me...
AM just found a block. Fist one in 16 hours. |
Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
|
|
|
|
JimiQ84
|
|
September 12, 2013, 09:26:37 AM |
|
This hashrate decrease is beginning to worry me...
AM just found a block. Fist one in 16 hours. it looks like we are stuck on some 17TH/s (according to runeks.dk/bitcoin) |
|
|
|
|
binaryFate
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1003
Still wild and free
|
|
September 12, 2013, 11:15:21 AM |
|
This hashrate decrease is beginning to worry me...
AM just found a block. Fist one in 16 hours. it looks like we are stuck on some 17TH/s (according to runeks.dk/bitcoin) 1.5% on the 36h... This is miserable... |
Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
|
|
|
|
