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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808657 times)
greatscott
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September 18, 2013, 06:33:05 AM
 #3141

My guess: 0.013, because I'm speculating that FC's trying to stabilize the div payouts to help squelch share-price volatility.
binaryFate
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September 18, 2013, 01:42:28 PM
 #3142

My guess: 0.013, because I'm speculating that FC's trying to stabilize the div payouts to help squelch share-price volatility.
+1 for 0.013. But why would FC care about current share price and short-term fluctuations of it?

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
runeks
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September 18, 2013, 02:01:06 PM
 #3143

So, just to have some fun while waiting, on the old addresses related to hardware sales there are almost 1000 BTC. Someone said that there should be another 2000 BTC that weren't included in last week dividends. Does anyone have other informations?
About 1200 BTC mined.

So 1000 BTC + 2000 BTC + 1200 BTC = 4200 BTC
4200 BTC/400000 shares = 0.0105 per share
minus funds reserved for Gen2/R&D?

Could we see below 0.01 per share?
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 02:29:57 PM
 #3144

So, just to have some fun while waiting, on the old addresses related to hardware sales there are almost 1000 BTC. Someone said that there should be another 2000 BTC that weren't included in last week dividends. Does anyone have other informations?
About 1200 BTC mined.

So 1000 BTC + 2000 BTC + 1200 BTC = 4200 BTC
4200 BTC/400000 shares = 0.0105 per share
minus funds reserved for Gen2/R&D?

Could we see below 0.01 per share?

I'm not sure if he'll reserve funds again this time, I had assumed that he wouldn't

here's the discussion of funds not included last week:
I assume some revenue was kept back again this week, but does anyone know approximately how much has been kept back in total?

AM owns this (though it also gets divs) and seems like a lot of traffic to and from this address. http://blockchain.info/address/1HgTJED7XEGy4vVwKa8kgefWqUB3VRX2mW

Currently about 9000 BTC here.

Other stuff:
1. The HW payments I was keeping track off from group buy threads, most of them ended up here (http://blockchain.info/address/1ZGtnxLWYVDbUVXPQLTRqnF6Bv6u2BMf8). They still weren't part of the divs (~1670 BTC)

2. Similar one, with ~616 BTC still there - http://blockchain.info/address/18GHa147X18rdNPxJeuNeEM7L7SFzsvTyi - From hw sales

3. Both Sonic and Cannary's group buy payment still has approx. 500 BTC (I imagine most of this being sent to FC, after deducting reseller commission)

http://blockchain.info/address/16ARXc5LhCnz111qD5xRUR3mWVg6gkBcU4
http://blockchain.info/address/14ja5p6K1gqYgmZQPCU295UxducKwaT6pw


supert
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September 18, 2013, 03:55:41 PM
 #3145

0.00967485
tinus42
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September 18, 2013, 04:01:27 PM
 #3146

So, just to have some fun while waiting, on the old addresses related to hardware sales there are almost 1000 BTC. Someone said that there should be another 2000 BTC that weren't included in last week dividends. Does anyone have other informations?
About 1200 BTC mined.

So 1000 BTC + 2000 BTC + 1200 BTC = 4200 BTC
4200 BTC/400000 shares = 0.0105 per share
minus funds reserved for Gen2/R&D?

Could we see below 0.01 per share?

Yes we did. Sad
binaryFate
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September 18, 2013, 04:04:17 PM
 #3147

Guys, see the good side of this: we might get rid of Vycid soon  Cheesy

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
mechs
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September 18, 2013, 04:08:38 PM
 #3148

0.00967485
As I said before, the dividends are meaningless at this point. They will be low as all coins going towards gen 2 R&D.  What matters is the hashrate and ASICMiner being able to stay ahead of the game.
runeks
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September 18, 2013, 04:09:30 PM
 #3149

Looks like someone took a huge dump on these news.

Bid is down to 1.87 (ask is still 2.047).
mechs
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September 18, 2013, 04:21:05 PM
 #3150

Looks like someone took a huge dump on these news.

Bid is down to 1.87 (ask is still 2.047).
All the speculators and weak hands, we are definitely going lower before mid-November which is the earlier I think we will see gen 2 from Asicminer. My bet is we reach 1.2-1.5.
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 04:27:02 PM
 #3151

from the other thread:

30 of the shares sold on BTCT were mine.

I dumped a good chunk, to diversify.... was holding out to see if divs were going to turn around this week.  Since they have not, I am moving stuff elsewhere.  I may buy back in some that I sold if people dump it too low after Burnside pays divs.

95% of my BTC are in AM, I need to change this.

velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 04:29:30 PM
 #3152

As I said before, the dividends are meaningless at this point.

I think the market disagrees.  When the div is lower than the one before, we see a significant sell off.

mechs
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September 18, 2013, 04:36:35 PM
 #3153

As I said before, the dividends are meaningless at this point.

I think the market disagrees.  When the div is lower than the one before, we see a significant sell off.
I know but I disagree with the market;)
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 04:45:12 PM
 #3154

I know but I disagree with the market;)

I don't blame you, I disagree with it, myself.

mechs
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September 18, 2013, 05:55:51 PM
 #3155

Many people entered at this level or a bit lower, I'm not surprised there are so many sells: they can live with not taking much profit, but I don't see why they should risk losing their initial investment too.
The fact is there are a lot of weak handed speculators in AM that are easily shaken out with every low div published.  My point is there will be low divs for a couple months until gen 2 ready.  Therefore, this will drive the price lower as the weak hands get shooken out.  I will stay on the sidelines until early November and then by accumulate at my best guess of the point of maximum pesstimism.

My guess, we will see 1.2-1.5 in the not so distant future (mid-November).  However, long-term, we will see 4.5-5.0 again (by January 2014). 

binaryFate
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September 18, 2013, 05:57:36 PM
 #3156

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
empoweoqwj
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September 18, 2013, 06:00:55 PM
 #3157

This is the lowest dividend I have received. Share price is plummeting. Hashing % down to almost nothing. Highly irregular updates from friedcat.

I'm really hoping he is investing a lot of bitcoins in more mining equipment and gen 2 stuff. I'm going to "hang in" because I really can't afford to sell at these levels having bought at 2.5 to 3.5. But if things continue, we could be seeing sub 1.0 BTC share price very soon

Time to pray !!
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:01:37 PM
 #3158

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

binaryFate
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September 18, 2013, 06:03:11 PM
 #3159

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
velacreations (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 06:05:10 PM
 #3160

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
If I recall, there was an estimate a few days ago that mining+franchising = max hash rate we have ever seen.  So, I expect that he is franchising out old equipment, and is not adding anything Gen1 to the farm right now, cause Gen2 is on the horizon.

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