ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[empoweoqwj]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

So where is the profit?

My other question is I always wondered why FC planned to take so long moving from  Gen 1 to Gen 2. He had a massive headstart. Bitcoins in the bank, yet doesn't plan to launch Gen 2 until well after several other players do.

Way to lose competitive advantage ....... hope I'm wrong.

[JimiQ84]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

[binaryFate]

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?

If I recall, there was an estimate a few days ago that mining+franchising = max hash rate we have ever seen.  So, I expect that he is franchising out old equipment, and is not adding anything Gen1 to the farm right now, cause Gen2 is on the horizon.

Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!

[empoweoqwj]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

I don't think AM has managed 45 TH/s this week, or anywhere near.

[empoweoqwj]

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?

If I recall, there was an estimate a few days ago that mining+franchising = max hash rate we have ever seen.  So, I expect that he is franchising out old equipment, and is not adding anything Gen1 to the farm right now, cause Gen2 is on the horizon.

Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!

Exactly. Completely lost the competitive advantage on moving to Gen 2. Why?

[mechs]

We should rename this thread to "The Rise and Fall of ASICMINER"

[JimiQ84]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

I don't think AM has managed 45 TH/s this week, or anywhere near.

with network percentage around 3-6% you should take into consideration 14 days average

[binaryFate]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

So where is the profit?

My other question is I always wondered why FC planned to take so long moving from  Gen 1 to Gen 2. He had a massive headstart. Bitcoins in the bank, yet doesn't plan to launch Gen 2 until well after several other players do.

Way to lose competitive advantage ....... hope I'm wrong.

I consider possible that even FC didn't foresee the scale of the boom of competition and increased difficulty, and the ability of new competitors to develop directly Gen2 super quickly. Hope I'm wrong too...

[mechs]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

I don't think AM has managed 45 TH/s this week, or anywhere near.

with network percentage around 3-6% you should take into consideration 14 days average

What is clear is that the actual ASICMiner farm is not keeping up with the overall increase in hash rate.  No idea what the franchises are doing but if it were substantially good news, wouldn't FC communicate it with shareholders?

[mechs]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

So where is the profit?

My other question is I always wondered why FC planned to take so long moving from  Gen 1 to Gen 2. He had a massive headstart. Bitcoins in the bank, yet doesn't plan to launch Gen 2 until well after several other players do.

Way to lose competitive advantage ....... hope I'm wrong.

I consider possible that even FC didn't foresee the scale of the boom of competition and increased difficulty, and the ability of new competitors to develop directly Gen2 super quickly. Hope I'm wrong too...

Plus who thought people like cointerra would come on the scene with their serious pedigree.  FC is a mere hobbyist by comparision.

[runeks]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

The network is running at about 940 TH/s right now, ASICMiner is probably at 40-ish. That's only 4% of the network. Variance will be quite large at this level. There's an 8% chance that no blocks will be found in 16 hours if you have 4% of the network. So this will happen about once every week.

[velacreations]

Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!

I thought it was Nov, but even then, why would you add more of Gen1 to the mining farm, right now when you can sell it for a profit immediately?

[runeks]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

I don't think AM has managed 45 TH/s this week, or anywhere near.

In that case you'd be wrong.

ASICMiner has found 48 blocks in the past week (from September 11th to September 17th). The network finds around 1008 blocks in a week (a bit more than that before the difficulty was adjusted). 48 of 1008 is 4.76%. 4.76% of 900 TH/s is 42.9 TH/s.

They've found the following blocks:

257330 257332 257388 257491 257503 257515 257518 257523 257532 257623 257639 257645 257678 257690 257696 257706 257737 257773 257797 257802 257868 257878 257935 257960 258020 258050 258087 258099 258103 258143 258162 258175 258242 258284 258286 258300 258347 258368 258374 258406 258419 258437 258452 258463 258473 258483 258543 258550

[mechs]

Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!

I thought it was Nov, but even then, why would you add more of Gen1 to the mining farm, right now when you can sell it for a profit immediately?

Exactly, if you can sell H/W immediately for more BTC than you can mine with it in forever, of course he should sell it.  

[mechs]

AM hash rate is either very very low or completely null at the moment. What the heeeeeell is going on?

FC is selling hardware.  More profit on Gen1 can be made by selling it rather than mining.

Afaik FC is not selling the first model of blades, he was never selling used equipement right? So where are they right now instead of mining?
 

we are still at 45 TH/s as it always was (at least few last weeks). It's just that with lower percentage of the whole network, luck has greater effect.

I don't think AM has managed 45 TH/s this week, or anywhere near.

In that case you'd be wrong.

ASICMiner has found 48 blocks in the past week (from September 11th to September 17th). The network finds around 1008 blocks in a week (a bit more than that before the difficulty was adjusted). 48 of 1008 is 4.76%.

They've found the following blocks:

257330 257332 257388 257491 257503 257515 257518 257523 257532 257623 257639 257645 257678 257690 257696 257706 257737 257773 257797 257802 257868 257878 257935 257960 258020 258050 258087 258099 258103 258143 258162 258175 258242 258284 258286 258300 258347 258368 258374 258406 258419 258437 258452 258463 258473 258483 258543 258550

BUUURRRRRNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!

[binaryFate]

Gen2 is not expecting to mine significantly before December! That's not "on the horizon"!

I thought it was Nov, but even then, why would you add more of Gen1 to the mining farm, right now when you can sell it for a profit immediately?

Exactly, if you can sell H/W immediately for more BTC than you can mine with it in forever, of course he should sell it.  

Except that by selling you increase the hash rate that is outside your hands and make it harder for you to mine in the future.
Not sure if it has a noticeable effect, though, given the crazy exponential increase anyway.

[velacreations]

did FC change the plans for Gen2 or something?  I don't recall that changing, so why are you guys concerned about it being "late"?

Competition is coming on the scene, sure, but which company has delivered anything, yet?  There will be SIGNIFICANT failures in the race to Gen2, guys.  I'd be surprised is even 1/3 of the proposed "competitors" actually succeed.

[velacreations]

Except that by selling you increase the hash rate that is outside your hands and make it harder for you to mine in the future.
Not sure if it has a noticeable effect, though, given the crazy exponential increase anyway.

so, should he mine with it for 2 months, not make ROI, and then trash it, cause then it's used equipment and has no resale value?

No, he should sell every single piece of Gen 1 as fast as possible for the highest prices possible to make the maximum profit possible off that equipment.  Come Dec, no one will be buying Gen1, anymore.  It makes no sense to hang on to it.

[JimiQ84]

did FC change the plans for Gen2 or something?  I don't recall that changing, so why are you guys concerned about it being "late"?

Competition is coming on the scene, sure, but which company has delivered anything, yet?  There will be SIGNIFICANT failures in the race to Gen2, guys.  I'd be surprised is even 1/3 of the proposed "competitors" actually succeed.

Bitfury delivered something around 250TH/s, maybe more

[mechs]

did FC change the plans for Gen2 or something?  I don't recall that changing, so why are you guys concerned about it being "late"?

Competition is coming on the scene, sure, but which company has delivered anything, yet?  There will be SIGNIFICANT failures in the race to Gen2, guys.  I'd be surprised is even 1/3 of the proposed "competitors" actually succeed.

Bitfury seems to have already "delivered" to themselves. Bastards mining at 178 TH/s atm: https://ghash.io/