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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939885 times)
JustAnotherSheep
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May 24, 2014, 09:26:32 AM
Last edit: May 24, 2014, 09:37:45 AM by JustAnotherSheep
 #1521

Time for more divergence games! I'm still attempting to learn it, so I would appreciate clarification here.



Is this correct divergence analysis? As Oda asked in a similar case, which takes precedence, the hidden bullish or regular bearish?
Regular bearish because, as Blitz said (if I interpret his words correctly), in a bull market one should look more at highs, or the hidden bullish because it is more recent and thus more relevant to the situation at the moment?

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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May 24, 2014, 09:34:13 AM
 #1522

Time for more divergence games! I'm still attempting to learn it, so I would appreciate clarification here.



Is this correct divergence analysis? As Oda asked in a similar case, which takes precedence, the hidden bullish or regular bearish?
Regular bearish because, as TERA said (if I interpret his words correctly), in a bull market one should look more at highs, or the hidden bullish because it is more recent and thus more relevant to the situation at the moment?

We're still in a short/medium term bear market, although it's showing some signs of reversal now. I would probably call this a bull market when the weekly MACD crosses again.

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May 24, 2014, 09:41:00 AM
 #1523

Time for more divergence games! I'm still attempting to learn it, so I would appreciate clarification here.



Is this correct divergence analysis? As Oda asked in a similar case, which takes precedence, the hidden bullish or regular bearish?
Regular bearish because, as Blitz said (if I interpret his words correctly), in a bull market one should look more at highs, or the hidden bullish because it is more recent and thus more relevant to the situation at the moment?

It's pretty obvious to me that we got some more up to go.

We ran up over $100 in just over 3 days. Now we are just profit taking at resistance levels before going up some more. If we make it to around $630, then we should start looking at divergences. Right now we are at the very least in an A,B,C correction and we've got some wind in our sails.
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May 24, 2014, 10:02:08 AM
 #1524

It's pretty obvious to me that we got some more up to go.

We ran up over $100 in just over 3 days. Now we are just profit taking at resistance levels before going up some more. If we make it to around $630, then we should start looking at divergences. Right now we are at the very least in an A,B,C correction and we've got some wind in our sails.
I am not as certain. We broke through short-term support pretty heavily, and are currently below hourly SMA50. I suppose the hidden bullish divergence could signal a final local spike up (possibly to the support-line (assumingly) gone resistance), but I have a feeling we'll break through hourly SMA200 and test long-term support (currently at $462) before we can break daily SMA200 and take off. Certainly doesn't help that it's weekend = whale dump time, and market looks fragile enough atm to be significantly moved by a whale.



But then again I'm a noobish sheep, so for all I know you could be right Smiley Just throwing out possibilities.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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May 24, 2014, 10:10:32 AM
 #1525

It's pretty obvious to me that we got some more up to go.

We ran up over $100 in just over 3 days. Now we are just profit taking at resistance levels before going up some more. If we make it to around $630, then we should start looking at divergences. Right now we are at the very least in an A,B,C correction and we've got some wind in our sails.
I am not as certain. We broke through short-term support pretty heavily, and are currently below hourly SMA50. I suppose the hidden bullish divergence could signal a final local spike up (possibly to the support-line (assumingly) gone resistance), but I have a feeling we'll break through hourly SMA200 and test long-term support (currently at $462) before we can break daily SMA200 and take off. Certainly doesn't help that it's weekend = whale dump time, and market looks fragile enough atm to be significantly moved by a whale.



But then again I'm a noobish sheep, so for all I know you could be right Smiley Just throwing out possibilities.

On Finex we have 6k coins to even touch $500. We've got about 36 hours of weekend left. I do not think we will see 460.
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May 24, 2014, 10:22:09 AM
 #1526

On Finex we have 6k coins to even touch $500. We've got about 36 hours of weekend left. I do not think we will see 460.
Fair point, though it's important to keep in mind that walls can (and regularly do) get pulled.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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May 24, 2014, 07:59:30 PM
 #1527

On Finex we have 6k coins to even touch $500. We've got about 36 hours of weekend left. I do not think we will see 460.
Fair point, though it's important to keep in mind that walls can (and regularly do) get pulled.

stamp is 4k to 500, and that is more important to me. i trade on bitfinex, but tbh, walls on bitfinex (that aren't shared liquidity from bitstamp) have a pretty high tendency to evaporate. and walls at 500 are pretty meaningless when those putting them up know we are $25 away from touching them. on bitfinex you can make support appear very strong just with margin bids very from price action...

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May 24, 2014, 08:29:31 PM
 #1528

On Finex we have 6k coins to even touch $500. We've got about 36 hours of weekend left. I do not think we will see 460.
Fair point, though it's important to keep in mind that walls can (and regularly do) get pulled.

stamp is 4k to 500, and that is more important to me. i trade on bitfinex, but tbh, walls on bitfinex (that aren't shared liquidity from bitstamp) have a pretty high tendency to evaporate. and walls at 500 are pretty meaningless when those putting them up know we are $25 away from touching them. on bitfinex you can make support appear very strong just with margin bids very from price action...

4k to 500, its Saturday and the market is up slightly on the day.  We have already retraced to the 38% fib level and are now higher.

It looks bullish to me.
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May 25, 2014, 05:27:34 AM
 #1529

Lucio, where are you, we need that "To the moon" you said in September/October. Come on  Grin

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May 25, 2014, 05:38:23 AM
 #1530

Cup and handle on daily charts (handle slightly small) - target above 670.
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May 25, 2014, 06:08:27 AM
 #1531

Bitfinex leading the move suggests a short squeeze.
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May 25, 2014, 07:02:59 AM
 #1532

Bitfinex leading the move suggests a short squeeze.

True. Bitfinex seemed to have a lot to do with that last leg, and also seeing some bearish divergences on the 4hour chart (RSI, MACD histogram). Really hard to say what is going to happen next. Glad you pointed this out!

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June 01, 2014, 12:52:49 PM
 #1533

So what does the analysis say now?

Is the the multi year bear market scenario forecasted by masterluc still valid?

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June 01, 2014, 03:04:12 PM
 #1534

So what does the analysis say now?

Is the the multi year bear market scenario forecasted by masterluc still valid?

computer says no! :

Quote
$bMultiYearBearMarket = false;

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June 01, 2014, 03:09:09 PM
 #1535

So what does the analysis say now?

Is the the multi year bear market scenario forecasted by masterluc still valid?

That was always extremely stupid claim. Luc knows his job but sometimes act as troll. To claim Bitcoin is set for multiyear bear market in the year when it is gaining attention from all sides, when it is set to be regulated and as such safer investment, when it is set to hit Wallstreet is just out of this world.

I'd like to hear Luc's view on current situation but that one was very stupid one.

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June 01, 2014, 04:09:55 PM
 #1536

So what does the analysis say now?

Is the the multi year bear market scenario forecasted by masterluc still valid?

That was always extremely stupid claim. Luc knows his job but sometimes act as troll. To claim Bitcoin is set for multiyear bear market in the year when it is gaining attention from all sides, when it is set to be regulated and as such safer investment, when it is set to hit Wallstreet is just out of this world.

I'd like to hear Luc's view on current situation but that one was very stupid one.

He predicted based on his wave analysis, and I am just wondering if the current trend is still holding the pattern.

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June 01, 2014, 04:34:36 PM
 #1537

Sold most in short term near daily sma200

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June 01, 2014, 04:52:18 PM
 #1538

Sold most in short term near daily sma200
So you're completely in fiat for now? Why?
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June 01, 2014, 04:56:48 PM
 #1539

Sold most in short term near daily sma200
So you're completely in fiat for now? Why?
He hates money.
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June 01, 2014, 05:30:28 PM
 #1540

How bullish divergence turns into bearish




This is the first post I had not seen in this thread.  I've been away for a while, busy with school.  But it is on it's way through these levels again, just in the opposite direction.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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