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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919512 times)
JustAnotherSheep
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May 06, 2014, 03:45:55 AM
 #1521

LOL. And bump for the great thread.

$438 support broken, $425 probably, too - where is the next stop?
$410-400, followed by $360, I should think Smiley

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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greatway
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May 06, 2014, 03:48:07 AM
 #1522

hmmm revisiting the previous low....
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May 06, 2014, 01:23:09 PM
 #1523

LOL. And bump for the great thread.

$438 support broken, $425 probably, too - where is the next stop?
$410-400, followed by $360, I should think Smiley

Or we will stop the trend and come back up

There will be ton of support at 420-360 even if the sentiment will get even worse and some will panic sell

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May 08, 2014, 01:09:35 PM
 #1524


I usually suck at spotting divergences, so I better ask...





bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no


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May 08, 2014, 01:16:57 PM
 #1525


bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no


According to this it is hidden bearish div.




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oda.krell
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May 08, 2014, 01:18:44 PM
 #1526


bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no


According to this it is hidden bearish div.



I see. I really need to start wrapping my head around this.

Thanks!

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Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 08, 2014, 03:22:39 PM
 #1527


I usually suck at spotting divergences, so I better ask...





bullish divergence?

[ ] yes

[ ] no



No. The way I understand it, with a small rally now the oscillator would go into the oversold range - not a good sign. In other words, not that much room for growth left.

EDIT: Pinky's answer looks more scientific and trustworthy. Anyways, my gut feeling is it does not look very optimistic.
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May 08, 2014, 04:43:29 PM
Last edit: May 26, 2014, 10:43:04 PM by thefiniteidea
 #1528

From my blog over the last few months (it's all very bearish)....

I think once the broader market begins to turn lower in second half of the year, Bitcoin will trend lower with it.





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Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 08, 2014, 05:16:14 PM
 #1529

Does anyone know when was the last 1 week EMA cross in bitcoin history?

Bitstamp - January 11, 2012.
Price of Bitcoin - $6.95

January 2012  was the last cross down (before current one)?

When did the last  cross up happen?
oda.krell
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May 15, 2014, 04:46:54 PM
 #1530

Can we play the divergence game again? As I said before, they still elude me quite a lot.

Your critique, please:



The biggest problem I see: In addition to what I drew into the chart, there are also /hidden/ divergences in there that would technically count as bearish, e.g. lower highs in price, higher lows in MACD = hidden (bearish) div.

How to rank them? hidden div > regular div, or vice versa?

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Miz4r
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May 15, 2014, 05:02:55 PM
 #1531

I'm not so sure about those hidden bearish divergences, but I do see a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly chart:




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May 15, 2014, 07:00:04 PM
 #1532

Can we play the divergence game again? As I said before, they still elude me quite a lot.

Your critique, please:



The biggest problem I see: In addition to what I drew into the chart, there are also /hidden/ divergences in there that would technically count as bearish, e.g. lower highs in price, higher lows in MACD = hidden (bearish) div.

How to rank them? hidden div > regular div, or vice versa?

Your red in price and red on MACD is regular bullish divergence.
The green in price and green on the others two are hidden bearish

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May 15, 2014, 07:04:40 PM
 #1533






you have official proven that price has been going down

such epiphany

oda.krell
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May 15, 2014, 07:07:05 PM
 #1534

Can we play the divergence game again? As I said before, they still elude me quite a lot.

Your critique, please:



The biggest problem I see: In addition to what I drew into the chart, there are also /hidden/ divergences in there that would technically count as bearish, e.g. lower highs in price, higher lows in MACD = hidden (bearish) div.

How to rank them? hidden div > regular div, or vice versa?

Your red in price and red on MACD is regular bullish divergence.
The green in price and green on the others two are hidden bearish

Thanks. You are right. And I even checked the 'cheat sheet' that was posted earlier in here.

I guess it's just so damn unintuitive to me... lower highs in price, higher highs in indicator seems to indicate a bullish div to me, intuitively at least.

But yeah, no point in arguing, I made the same mistake as last time :P

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oda.krell
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May 15, 2014, 07:10:25 PM
 #1535



[...]


you have official proven that price has been going down

such epiphany

Thanks adam :D Never said my TA was beyond reproach. Guess divergences really aren't my cup of tea.

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Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 15, 2014, 07:16:23 PM
 #1536



[...]


you have official proven that price has been going down

such epiphany

Thanks adam Cheesy Never said my TA was beyond reproach. Guess divergences really aren't my cup of tea.

I am also not used to work with divergencies, but I would love pros to give their take. In Oda's example, there were two bullish divergencies and two hidden bearish. What is the interpretation? And generally, is there a simple answer to Oda's question of relative importance of regular vs hidden divergences?
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May 15, 2014, 08:54:36 PM
 #1537


Thanks. You are right. And I even checked the 'cheat sheet' that was posted earlier in here.

I guess it's just so damn unintuitive to me... lower highs in price, higher highs in indicator seems to indicate a bullish div to me, intuitively at least.

But yeah, no point in arguing, I made the same mistake as last time Tongue

How I look at the hidden bearish divergence is like this;
Market buying is stronger than market selling. This gives the boost to the underling indicators. But at the same time, the limit selling (aka ask order depth) was stronger than the market buying, which is why the price wasn't rising with the indicator.

In a regular divergence, you have price moving easier than the actual pressure applied to the orderbook.
This is why indicators make lower highs with higher highs in price (Bearish) or higher lows with the price making lower lows (bullish)

oda.krell
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May 15, 2014, 09:36:20 PM
 #1538


Thanks. You are right. And I even checked the 'cheat sheet' that was posted earlier in here.

I guess it's just so damn unintuitive to me... lower highs in price, higher highs in indicator seems to indicate a bullish div to me, intuitively at least.

But yeah, no point in arguing, I made the same mistake as last time Tongue

How I look at the hidden bearish divergence is like this;
Market buying is stronger than market selling. This gives the boost to the underling indicators. But at the same time, the limit selling (aka ask order depth) was stronger than the market buying, which is why the price wasn't rising with the indicator.

In a regular divergence, you have price moving easier than the actual pressure applied to the orderbook.
This is why indicators make lower highs with higher highs in price (Bearish) or higher lows with the price making lower lows (bullish)

Great answer. Screencapped and saved.

Thanks.

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Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
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Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 15, 2014, 11:40:17 PM
 #1539


Thanks. You are right. And I even checked the 'cheat sheet' that was posted earlier in here.

I guess it's just so damn unintuitive to me... lower highs in price, higher highs in indicator seems to indicate a bullish div to me, intuitively at least.

But yeah, no point in arguing, I made the same mistake as last time Tongue

How I look at the hidden bearish divergence is like this;
Market buying is stronger than market selling. This gives the boost to the underling indicators. But at the same time, the limit selling (aka ask order depth) was stronger than the market buying, which is why the price wasn't rising with the indicator.

In a regular divergence, you have price moving easier than the actual pressure applied to the orderbook.
This is why indicators make lower highs with higher highs in price (Bearish) or higher lows with the price making lower lows (bullish)

Great answer. Screencapped and saved.

Thanks.

+1. Thx!
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May 16, 2014, 12:05:23 AM
 #1540

Bearish divergence: Price does higher high, indicator does lower high
Hidden bearish divergence: Indicator does higher high, price does lower high

This isn't really a bearish divergence if the slope is just less negative. Plus, you drew it from different points in time for price vs. indicator.

Anyway, I checked it out on bitcoincharts, and there, the daily MACD actually does show a hidden bearish divergence, very strictly speaking (the slope is almost flat). Didn't catch that before, so thanks for that. Grin

Maybe it will help engrave it if I explain it my way too: During a trend, you want the indicator (an indicator is nothing but a filtered/"interpreted" way to look at price history) to align with the price action to signal that the way the price moves doesn't change. And if you are looking at a bullish trend, you want to look at the highs because that's where the momentum is. If there's a divergence in the highs during the bullish trend, then something has probably changed, two views no longer align with each other.

A regular bearish divergence happens for instance when the price makes new highs, but then reverses sharply and retraces untypically little of the drop before candle close, or when the price takes longer to make new highs than before. For the hidden bearish divergence, it could happen when the price simply stops making new highs without a drastic drop while the indicator (MACD is a good example) still goes higher just based on a past moving average. Both is a loss of momentum, it's just that one of the two views is more receptive to some signals while the other filters them out.

This will all depend in detail how the indicator works; there are many variations. I only use the MACD and the RSI myself.

I wouldn't attribute divergences much importance if they happen on a low volume or relatively sideways market because there is just no trend to look at.

tl;dr:

Price goes up, you look at highs. Divergence = bad
Price goes down, you look at lows. Divergence = good
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