Analysis

[seleme]

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again.

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

He definitely is. His "end of 3 years bullish market" is bullshit though but he is getting followers and such bold claims can help him a bit to move markets where he wants.

[Rampion]

You have to give it to Luc, he called the top almost perfectly again. Although he got some help from China, without their central bank's interference I think the bull market had some more fuel left. Oh well, it's been a while since we had a decent bear market, let's see how wild this one is. My bet is on $370 in January, and $700 within the next couple of days. Not going to trade this though, I can't handle the stress of missing my precious coins. I will send in some fresh fiat to try and catch the bottom again.

Help or not help from China, he sold after he spotted the double top - and sold once again at the very top of a bubble.

He doesn't have to write "I made a lot of profit trading this or that, we the pros are making money, etc.." as others do.

He just writes "I'm buying" and "I'm selling" and everybody can see by themselves that he is actually making very good choices and thus making money.

He definitely is. His "end of 3 years bullish market" is bullshit though but he is getting followers and such bold claims can help him a bit to move markets where he wants.

Agreed on that being BS, there's no reason for that to happen.

[masterluc]

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

[Rampion]

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

For the record: I think you are terribly wrong with that. Bear markets have been shorter and shorter - and so have been the run ups.

Bubbles are getting shorter and more contained, both in the way up and in the way down. They are also getting closer in time.

[masterluc]

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.

[Macno]

Do you really think you should compare the global stock markets with bitcoin?
If we go to 100 USD or lower, we`re talking about a market cap of less than 1,2 Billion USD.
That`s a single MidCap/SmallCap stock.
Do you think bitcoin will become more or less useless again (i.e. only drugsellers and gamblers will use it, as in 2009-2012)?

(honest question, I`ve learned a long time ago not to make fun of EW (it`s just too expensive)...though I haven`t heard anything vom good old Bob Prechter and his SP500 top calls for a while...).

[Zarathustra]

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.

[thefiniteidea]

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.

[JustAnotherSheep]

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.

If lucif is right you lose a couple of hundred bux, if not less. If you are right you gain >$1.2k. That's a good bet

[Zarathustra]

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

Agree completely on this, fits with my timeframe projections as well.

All of these epic, once-in-a-lifetime super-bubbles (stocks, bonds, housing, crypto-currency, and more) will ultimately collapse. Comparing now to the end of the roaring 20s doesn't do today justice... you'd have to go all the way back to the South Sea bubble to find comparable financial psychology.

Yes, but as a bear since months you unfortunately could not participate in the main part of this super bubble.
Masterluc had a good call again now. But I would still bet 1 coin against his prediction that the recent top won't be topped before 2016/2017. I predict a new high 2014 and bet 1 coin.

If lucif is right you lose a couple of hundred bux, if not less. If you are right you gain >$1.2k. That's a good bet

I can only gain or lose 1 coin. A Bitcoin is a Bitcoin is a Bitcoin. And furthermore, the chance of a new high is 20 percent only, according to the count of the maestro.

[Rampion]

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.

Impressive chart. IMO BTC will play as a contrary asset, doing the opposite as the stock markets will do.

Thus I join the crowd expecting a new ATH in the next few months. Probably by 3/4 months, and surely before 12 months. I think it's more probable we break ATH in the next 30 days that not doing it till 2016/2017 as lucif expect.

Nevertheless, big kudos to lucif and his no bullshit approach. While others miss their predictions over and over while they brag about how much money they do by day trading (and they have to give pompous and complex explanations for that), lucif just gives straight to the point analysis and buy/sell calls that speak for themselves.

I think we all agree that lucif has won the prize of best analyst in 2013.

Lucif: you should start managing people's funds for a cut of the profits, this is your time my friend

[Rampion]

And BTW: the "I'm afraid we are going to the moon" post when we were at $145 is probably the best quote coming from the speculation subforum in 2013

[accord01]

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

What does bb zone stand for?

[hiVe]

I don't make trading decisions based on news )) Never, ever. News follow waves, not visa versa.

If you scroll back topic you will see first warning from me was previous higher high overlap from China on 01 Dec. Sold there about 70%. Second confirmation I got when price hit negative BB zone on China 05 Dec. This is outstanding. Sold all other coins on rebounce. Then hourly sma200 was failed on retest from bottom. This insured me completely. And I wrote about bubble end.

No  mystery here. TA and observance.

What does bb zone stand for?

"bollinger band"

[oda.krell]

Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.

I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.


P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

[myself]

EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

how many times the market ignore the news, not just btc all markets ... u hear that on tv

when the TA become bullish good news is the kicker and TA become bearish news become the kicker, think about the news like a tipping point for a move


just look at all past news good bad and add TA on them to see the kicker

[N12]

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

[windjc]

Can you share why do you think the bear market will last till 2016-2017?

Stock market is ready for long global reversal. When all will go short on everything... Bitcoin will not be exception. Bitcoin EW counts support this.

Hold on here.

You just got through saying that news follows technicals. I generally agree with you.

Then you say that BTC will be bearish for 3 years due to the stock market going down.

Ummmmm....the stock market going down is NOT a technical.

Plus, last time the stock market went down, gold and silver prices started to rally.

So, this is FUD you are pulling out of your ass, not TA.

[windjc]

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.

[N12]

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

Following the 32 top, it took 1 1/2 years to make a new alltime high.

Why do you guys think it cannot happen again? Or happen even worse? In 2011, things looked awesome too. But then came the bear market, 6 months long, 95% loss. Slowly, progress was actually undone as merchant acceptance dwindled etc. Why? Because the price fell. It is all feedback loops.

The price does cause the news because it triggers or "unlocks" certain events, and the news is reflected in the price before it comes out, usually. Practical example: Had the price not risen so much so fast, the Chinese government wouldn't have done anything yet, probably. And, is it not easy to imagine that insiders on the chinese exchanges held back buying before and instead sold, which reflected in the chart patterns?

Why could it not happen again? The reasons are pretty obvious. Adaption on a much larger scale. Investment on a much larger scale. Acceptance on a much larger scale. Eco-system on a much larger scale. etc. etc. etc. 2011, Bitcoin was no even where LTC is today regarding these factors. Crypto currency was a pimple on the butt of obscurity.

Yes, all of this is now on a larger scale. And that is why the price is on a larger scale.